Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

breatheme

Without the DUP the Tories don't have a majority and if they officially signed off then May would have no choice but to call an election. Again.

prawnsambo

Mc Love wrote: »

This is nuts

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1059775572790915072?s=20

I think I said this a while ago on this thread. In the absence of any real news, a fart in the right direction can cause the pound to rise. Possibly as a result of thermo-dynamics.


The market is twitchy as hell. Which means that anything demonstrably bad will bring on a crash.

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier now saying a deal is not close according to an interview on Belgian radio.

He also reiterated protection of the Single Market.

Zubeneschamali

People also read too much into small spikes.

11:00 0.87406
12:00 0.87289

This "thumbs up" spike is a move of 0.1%

Noise.

trellheim

Without the DUP the Tories don't have a majority and if they officially signed off then May would have no choice but to call an election. Again.

no she wouldn't - need a vote of no confidence ( or a motion for an early election ) for that - minority government perfectly feasible

mayo.mick

The tyre factory will close by mid-2020 after the French firm deemed it "unsuitable" in the current climate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-46109213

EKRIUQ

mayo.mick wrote: »

The tyre factory will close by mid-2020 after the French firm deemed it "unsuitable" in the current climate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-46109213

A lot of factors at play and market changes, not really fair to blame Brexit for everything.

LeinsterDub

EKRIUQ wrote: »

A lot of factors at play and market changes, not really fair to blame Brexit for everything.

For a struggling facility brexit was the last thing they needed.

Of course brexit isn't the cause of every ill. But if I was an overloaded camel I'd be extreme worried as the brexit straw can break even the strongest of backs

snailsong

I note that no deal is available on Paddy Powers @ 17/10. Value?

LuckyLloyd

snailsong wrote: »

I note that no deal is available on Paddy Powers @ 17/10. Value?

Your analysis is as valid as anyone else's! The normal rules of politics don't apply. Sure, the EU is known as an institute of compromise and the last minute deal but in this instance they are negotiating with an entity deeply divided and absent of clear objectives and purpose. The UK situation at present is impossible to predict and a deal is dependent upon them reaching alignment on an option realistic and workable for the EU.

So, in short, who knows?

Tell me how

mayo.mick wrote: »

The tyre factory will close by mid-2020 after the French firm deemed it "unsuitable" in the current climate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-46109213

EKRIUQ wrote: »

A lot of factors at play and market changes, not really fair to blame Brexit for everything.

It's interesting that when they reported on this topic on the BBC news last night that they didn't refer to Brexit at all but said that they company said the market trends were towards Asian offerings. i.e. It's cheaper in China.

gooch2k9

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46110825


This factory closure can clearly be attributed to Brexit. This one is simply due to the uncertainty, what will happen if it ends up with JIT production not being possible in case of no deal.

Leroy42

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Your analysis is as valid as anyone else's! The normal rules of politics don't apply. Sure, the EU is known as an institute of compromise and the last minute deal but in this instance they are negotiating with an entity deeply divided and absent of clear objectives and purpose. The UK situation at present is impossible to predict and a deal is dependent upon them reaching alignment on an option realistic and workable for the EU.

So, in short, who knows?

And normally they are negotiating with another party that actually wants a deal, the negotiation is the details of the deal itself.

In the case of Brexit, the UK hasn't even decided if it wants a deal in the first place.

Leroy42

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46110825


This factory closure can clearly be attributed to Brexit. This one is simply due to the uncertainty, what will happen if it ends up with JIT production not being possible in case of no deal.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1041456/Brexit-news-Richard-Tice-Macron-Calais-Dover-port-traffic-latest-UK-trade-EU-withdrawal

Here is a case in point. Its simple, says this guy, to simply get a product from Australia instead of EU. Of course he says nothing about the time delays, the probable need for larger shipments to make it economical, the issues with perishable goods on long transit, insurance, banking, relationship building, stock outs and how to replenish them. As has been pointed out, if stock runs low, for whatever reason, it is fairly quick to get more stock from the EU. Need an extra 10 barrels from Australia?

Enzokk

Here is an update of where we are today it seems.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059795312494215168

The UK is still chasing a time limited backstop, or that is the appearance at least. Meanwhile...tick tock, tick tock, tick tock....

Leroy42

So the cabinet meeting that was meant to be TM putting out the deal and getting the go ahead, instead turns out to be the start of another fishing expedition.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1041456/Brexit-news-Richard-Tice-Macron-Calais-Dover-port-traffic-latest-UK-trade-EU-withdrawal

Here is a case in point. Its simple, says this guy, to simply get a product from Australia instead of EU. Of course he says nothing about the time delays, the probable need for larger shipments to make it economical, the issues with perishable goods on long transit, insurance, banking, relationship building, stock outs and how to replenish them. As has been pointed out, if stock runs low, for whatever reason, it is fairly quick to get more stock from the EU. Need an extra 10 barrels from Australia?

Of course, customs documentation is a non-issue as the forms fill themselves in. The cost of a customs entry is about €30 or so - per line item. The €45 billion they are talking about is about 10% of the annual cost of customs entries, to be filed by most businesses for the first time in 40 years. Do they have the knowledge to select the correct customs code for the item they are exporting or importing?

That is only one item.

There is the problem of HGV driver licenses, insurance cover, driver tacho times, etc etc. Plus of course, cargo inspections, and the delays, and the queues.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is an update of where we are today it seems.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059795312494215168

The UK is still chasing a time limited backstop, or that is the appearance at least. Meanwhile...tick tock, tick tock, tick tock....

Ireland and the EU will be very wary of the mood music coming out of Downing Street. A three hour cabinet meeting and their sole focus is how they can get out of a permanent backstop. If this is their focus now, imagine what they'll be like the moment they're out of the EU.

LeinsterDub

EKRIUQ wrote: »

A lot of factors at play and market changes, not really fair to blame Brexit for everything.

https://news.sky.com/story/german-manufacturer-schaeffler-to-shut-two-uk-plants-after-brexit-11546123

German manufacturer Schaeffler has said Brexit is a factor in its decision to close two UK plants, with 500 jobs expected to be lost.

The company, which employs just over 1,000 staff in the country, said uncertainty over the terms of the UK's future relationship with the EU had helped shape a review of its global interests.

500 more jobs laid upon the brexit alter.

And the people bowed and prayed to the brexit god they had made.

First Up

RobMc59 wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Standards are agreed between EU countries so everyone knows what they are getting. Its part of the logic of a single market.

The Commission doesn't "force" standards on countries. Its role is technical - working with member states to find the most suitable common standards and designing how they can be implemented across all countries. Its a step up from the original EU arrangement of "mutual recognition" to the more advanced system needed for the SM.

There are some in the UK still hoping that "mutual recognition" can be revived for them. Some chance of that.

The UK won't suddenly become some 3rd world country without sensible safety standards..Also whose job is it to think up this kind of stuff about the coffee maker-who ever it is must pinch themselves every morning when they wake up and say"am I really getting paid for this!".

There is a pretty strong possibility that the UK will import stuff (food from the US for example) that does not meet EU standards.

And as others have said, nobody is "thinking" anything up. Standards are set and agreed in consultation with member states

An Ciarraioch

Increasingly appears that the SDLP's days are numbered:

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/more-than-half-sdlp-councillors-are-ready-to-join-ff-37496715.html?__twitter_impression=true

Dyr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Increasingly appears that the SDLP's days are numbered:

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/more-than-half-sdlp-councillors-are-ready-to-join-ff-37496715.html?__twitter_impression=true

If FF are moving north a UI must be close than everyone imagined

Brendan Howlin says "that if a merger goes ahead, Labour will step in to ensure a "pluralist option" is available in Northern Ireland."

I'd say everyone is quaking in their boots at the idea of whats left of the Labour party stepping into NI politics

An Ciarraioch

Also appears the UK Cabinet have accepted that any review mechanism can only be activated mutually.

RobMc59

lawred2 wrote: »

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK won't suddenly become some 3rd world country without sensible safety standards..Also whose job is it to think up this kind of stuff about the coffee maker-who ever it is must pinch themselves every morning when they wake up and say"am I really getting paid for this!".

You think there's a person or room of people just simply making standards up?

That was meant to be humorous but there probably is someone,somewhere thinking up stuff like that.

RobMc59

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Also appears the UK Cabinet have accepted that any review mechanism can only be activated mutually.

And that's how it should be.

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier saying again just now that they need an all weather backstop.

Code for NI only as well.

Patser

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46110825


This factory closure can clearly be attributed to Brexit. This one is simply due to the uncertainty, what will happen if it ends up with JIT production not being possible in case of no deal.

What's really mad about this is that Wales voted in favour of Brexit. Themselves and the likes of Sunderland are so dependent on EU integration, and yet they decided to jump and are now squirming with the results but with no real way to object - unlike say Scotland and Northern Ireland which can shout how much they were against it all, and want protection

Kermit.de.frog

No Brexit deal, no transition without Irish backstop - Barnier

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1NB229?__twitter_impression=true

Dyr

Patser wrote: »

What's really mad about this is that Wales voted in favour of Brexit. Themselves and the likes of Sunderland are so dependent on EU integration, and yet they decided to jump and are now squirming with the results but with no real way to object - unlike say Scotland and Northern Ireland which can shout how much they were against it all, and want protection

You wonder if these companies kept their powder dry up to now in the hope that there might be some clarity about a deal and now are all going to jump ship at once.

Mc Love

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No Brexit deal, no transition without Irish backstop - Barnier

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1NB229?__twitter_impression=true

"Without an operational backstop there will not be an accord and there will not be a transition period. That is certain.”

Seems he is sick to death of Brexit and the British