Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

seamus

Sam Russell wrote: »

We should have kept a 12 mile limit. Or we should have kept a limit within the 12 mile limit for boats of less than 30 metres (which nearly all of our were and nearly all non-Irish boats were not).

I don't know. At the time we didn't have the resources to make good use of the waters we had, and that wasn't going to change. For all intents and purposes the state was trading a natural resource that we were never going to use, in order to become an equal member in a massive trading bloc.

If you had a crystal ball you'd know that within 25 years we would finally have the money to develop and make better use of our native fisheries. But they didn't. So it was the right call at the time.

Even with a 12 mile limit, we had no way to police it and no money to develop it.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is funny that anytime economics is raised in regard to the potential cost of Brexit, those supporting leave reply that what price on sovereignty and freedom to make their own laws.

But even if the economic hit is taken as less that some predicted, the effect on the UK's standing and power has been immensely negative.

The UK have shown themselves to be unreliable partners, unpredictable negotiators and domestically almost ungovernable. Their county is completely split, the union is coming under severe pressure.

They have put back UK/Ireland relations years after all the hard and good work over the last few decades. They have opened up old stereotypes of Europeans and Europeans of them.

Both main parties have been shown up to be completely unable to deal with the big questions, to put forward a thought out and reasonable way forward. They are shorn of leaders and now are in the grip of a few, noisy, hardliners on either side.

So, yes, a complete and utter disaster for the UK no matter what way you look at it.

Absolutely. The cartoon here from today's Telegraph is a disgrace.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Absolutely. The cartoon here from today's Telegraph is a disgrace.

Not really.

I have never felt that Jean-Claude Juncker shows any type of Leadership.

Professor Moriarty

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

Not really.

I have never felt that Jean-Claude Juncker shows any type of Leadership.

Maybe, maybe not. Either way, the depiction of him drunk at a meeting with the British PM is a disgrace and typical of the Telegraph's Little Englander mentality.

Leroy42

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

Not really.

I have never felt that Jean-Claude Juncker shows any type of Leadership.

Yet they leave TM as normal.

TM and leadership do not go in even the same universe as each other.

Its funny, because one of the main gripes of the Brexiteers is that the EU is run by a cabal of unelected elites, like Juncker. Yet they depict him, and others, as useless drunken layabouts without any leadership skills. Well which is it? A authoritarian control state run by dictators, or a useless bunch of muppets? Maybe the truth lies somewhere in between,but given that the EU is the greatest alliance formed in terms of trade and social interaction, I think it safe to say that some leadership has been shown in the EU.

TM has not even been able to keep the party she paid to be on her side (DUP) on her side. The EU has remained a single voice.

There is a vacuum of leadership all right, and it resides in the UK.

Adamcp898

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Absolutely. The cartoon here from today's Telegraph is a disgrace.

It's a political cartoon. It's meant to at least be somewhat mocking of someone or other.

''Disgrace'' is more than a little OTT and verging on hand-wringing for hand-wringings sake.

Water John

Just how untrustworthy this Govn't is, illustrated by Bercow already twice today having to challenge Leadsom on the type of vote both she and TM promised Parliament. Bercow having none of it.
Amendments taken before the main vote not after it's rejected.
Fisheries is a flash point esp in Scotland.

I don't want to sidetrack the core Brexit discussion but we gave up major fishing grounds basically in preference to agriculture and that's coming from a farmer.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

Given the history of Ireland's economic development since 1973, this is a strange regret.

Google, Facebook, Intel, Big Pharma et al were only possible because of EU membership. EU membership was only possible because of acceptance of the EU fisheries policy.

Being a poorer version of Iceland was where we would have ended up.

The trade off was Agriculture v. Fisheries. Probably a mistake now as the French would have argued very strongly for Agriculture.

Professor Moriarty

Adamcp898 wrote: »

It's a political cartoon. It's meant to at least be somewhat mocking of someone or other.

''Disgrace'' is more than a little OTT and verging on hand-wringing for hand-wringings sake.

Maybe I'm a snowflake.

EdgeCase

Water John wrote: »

Just how untrustworthy this Govn't is, illustrated by Bercow already twice today having to challenge Leadsom on the type of vote both she and TM promised Parliament. Bercow having none of it.
Amendments taken before the main vote not after it's rejected.
Fisheries is a flash point esp in Scotland.

I don't want to sidetrack the core Brexit discussion but we gave up major fishing grounds basically in preference to agriculture and that's coming from a farmer.

Fundamentally that came down to Irish domestic politics : farming lobby enormously powerful and fishing lobby almost unheard of. For an island, we rather surprisingly never really paid all that much attention to the sea.

In the big scheme of things, the value of both primary agriculture and fishing is relatively tiny in the scheme of overall Irish GDP and absolutely minuscule in the UK context.

From an Irish economic development perspective, it was having the ability to attract in FDI and the spinoff industries that that created that drove growth and modernisation here. If you look at the breakdown of Irish GDP it's actually quite surprising how small a role primary agriculture plays. It's just that it creates a disproportionately high number of jobs in rural Ireland and we have a tendency to still imagine ourselves to be an agricultural economy. The UK has a similar distorted impression of how much some of those sectors contribute to its economic output.

Water John

Whilst Ag and Fisheries may be small in GDP terms they are very important in key areas. Without them vast swathes of the countryside would be bereft of people and social structure.
This applies more to NE UK, Scotland and ROI.

farmchoice

TM is going after labour votes in a big way today. she has gone through the 6 labour tests and how her agreement meets them.

all pretty unconvincing but it shows how she is going to play it.

EdgeCase

To be fair to the EU, I think in general the policies tend to reflect that agriculture is something of intrinsic cultural importance rather than just a simple economic activity. Unlike the US, there's a a stronger focus in Europe on trying to keep people on the land and preserve rural ways of life and there's more of an emphasis on things like food quality, food culture, farmers as custodians of rural landscapes and all of that.

That's one area where the UK faces huge risks as in order to get trade deals with countries like the US, where hard line market economics tend to apply and there's a more libertarian approach to agriculture, the British will not be able to continue to subsidise farmers and they don't have the weight that the EU has nor are the UK farmers as aggressively able to lobby as their French or even Irish counterparts.

Even if the UK doesn't export all that much food (and it doesn't) those new trade partners will force the market open and force domestic agriculture to operate in the open market without any safety nets, so I assume you will see fairly significant changes to the British and Northern Irish rural landscape as the UK has to open those markets to get access for its financial services and other parts of its economy.

Beyond the EU, things are most definitely not as cushy for agriculture.

An Ciarraioch

The UK would effectively have three years to negotiate permanent Border arrangements, it seems:

http://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1065616385307549701

farmchoice

a fairly harmless contribution from Jeffery Donaldson today. he said he wanted the backstop gone but highlighted that the political declaration provides a path for another way ( yet to be invented tech, unicorns etc).


no blood and thunder today.

CelticRambler

Water John wrote: »

Whilst Ag and Fisheries may be small in GDP terms they are very important in key areas. Without them vast swathes of the countryside would be bereft of people and social structure.

Agriculture is also hugely important as part of the Irish brand overseas. While the Indo and the inhabitants of AH portray the country as a corrupt, junkie-filled shanty-town, packs of Kerrygold and boxes of Irish oats and other such products are selling the country as an eco-friendly, premium destination.

As regards the Scottish fisheries, the UK will "take back control" of its waters (control that it opted not to exercise while in the EU) and sacrifice tariff-free access to its main market. I can't help but see parallels between the Brexit-will-save-us fishermen and Trump's tarirff war with China that has wreaked havoc on the soya bean farmers that voted for him.

Kermit.de.frog

farmchoice wrote: »

a fairly harmless contribution from Jeffery Donaldson today. he said he wanted the backstop gone but highlighted that the political declaration provides a path for another way ( yet to be invented tech, unicorns etc).


no blood and thunder today.

There is no where else to go for the DUP.

The deal is done. I think it's quite likely now to pass the HoC.

They know the words about technology are a load of nonsense but they pushed these myths so can hardly complain now.

An Ciarraioch

CelticRambler wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

Whilst Ag and Fisheries may be small in GDP terms they are very important in key areas. Without them vast swathes of the countryside would be bereft of people and social structure.

Agriculture is also hugely important as part of the Irish brand overseas. While the Indo and the inhabitants of AH portray the country as a corrupt, junkie-filled shanty-town, packs of Kerrygold and boxes of Irish oats and other such products are selling the country as an eco-friendly, premium destination.

As regards the Scottish fisheries, the UK will "take back control" of its waters (control that it opted not to exercise while in the EU) and sacrifice tariff-free access to its main market. I can't help but see parallels between the Brexit-will-save-us fishermen and Trump's tarirff war with China that has wreaked havoc on the soya bean farmers that voted for him.

What happened to the deal with the EU to take some of the soya quota?

MrMusician18

Adamcp898 wrote: »

It's a political cartoon. It's meant to at least be somewhat mocking of someone or other.

''Disgrace'' is more than a little OTT and verging on hand-wringing for hand-wringings sake.

The telegraph has had an issue with JCJ since he became commission president against the wishes of the UK government at the time. They have gone to great lengths to paint him as some sort of alcoholic, chain smoking louche. As I don't work in the commission, I don't know whether it's true or not but I do know it's not something really reported on outside the hostile UK press.

In any case, the telegraph is a disgraceful paper, it is worse than Fox news in it's partisanship.

funkey_monkey

Hi is there anywhere that I can get an independent breakdown of what the Withdrawal Agreement means for people in NI?
I usually look towards Katy Hayward, but I can find nothing from her and I'm not sure if her scope covers it.

Thanks.

funkey_monkey

Do the UK MP's not think they will be able to negotiate a trade deal with the EU?
If they think they can, why is the backstop such a problem to them?

funkey_monkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The deal is done. I think it's quite likely now to pass the HoC.

Why do you think that? Alex Wickham (BuzzfeedUK Snr Political Correspondent) is reporting that 50% of Tory backbenchers now state they will vote against it.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1065634225951522816

LeinsterDub

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why do you think that? Alex Wickham (BuzzfeedUK Snr Political Correspondent) is reporting that 50% of Tory backbenchers now state they will vote against it.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1065634225951522816

Is this similar to the ERG claiming they had well over 48 votes?

rogue-entity

EdgeCase wrote: »

From an Irish economic development perspective, it was having the ability to attract in FDI and the spinoff industries that that created that drove growth and modernisation here. If you look at the breakdown of Irish GDP it's actually quite surprising how small a role primary agriculture plays. It's just that it creates a disproportionately high number of jobs in rural Ireland and we have a tendency to still imagine ourselves to be an agricultural economy. The UK has a similar distorted impression of how much some of those sectors contribute to its economic output.

Fishing and Agriculture may provide jobs in coastal and rural Ireland but I would wonder how many of the younger generation are all that interested in working in those sectors - hard work with less pay than what can be earned elsewhere.

I don't have figures to hand but I suspect far more are employed in high-skilled/high-paying work and not just in traditional (and capped) professions. I'm not sure there's the same appetite for working in curry houses or doing hard work that doesn't pay the same as a job in fintech, for example.

funkey_monkey

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Is this similar to the ERG claiming they had well over 48 votes?

I don't know - he was quoted on the BBC Live stream so I guess he is not a numpty.

If you scroll down through his twitter feed he names them all.

Here are the names here: Tory MPs who will vote against WA

Adamcp898

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Maybe I'm a snowflake.

Kinda missed the point but whatever makes you feel best.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The telegraph has had an issue with JCJ since he became commission president against the wishes of the UK government at the time. They have gone to great lengths to paint him as some sort of alcoholic, chain smoking louche. As I don't work in the commission, I don't know whether it's true or not but I do know it's not something really reported on outside the hostile UK press.

In any case, the telegraph is a disgraceful paper, it is worse than Fox news in it's partisanship.

And this is exactly what political cartoons are, by and large. I just don't see the outrage.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting thread by a Dutch analyst - the main catches in UK waters are mackerel and herring, but virtually no-one in Britain eats them, so nearly all are exported to the EU27. By contrast, the most popular fish in the UK are cod and haddock, but there are practically none in British waters, so are dependent on imports, making a fisheries agreement essential:

http://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1065173307769700353

Rather surprised about the mackerel stat, given there's always strong demand for it in Ireland, and one would have expected similar tastes across the water.

An Ciarraioch

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Hi is there anywhere that I can get an independent breakdown of what the Withdrawal Agreement means for people in NI?
I usually look towards Katy Hayward, but I can find nothing from her and I'm not sure if her scope covers it.

Thanks.

Darran Marshall and JP Campbell of BBC NI have had decent coverage, along with Slugger O'Toole.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

What happened to the deal with the EU to take some of the soya quota?

That was nothing more than Trumpist fake news. The EU agreed not to do anything to restrict imports, but the EU can't force (industrial) consumers to import more than they want, and they don't currently want any more than they were already using. More here

The (tenuous!) relevance to Brexit in this example is that thanks to a bilateral agreement, the EU imposes no tariff on the import soybeans, which benefits factories in the UK that use them, so there will be no "cheaper food" available in that respect. The same applies to many other raw (food) materials already imported into the EU at zero tariffs. Britain's exports on the other hand, will be pitched into competition with all the other third-country suppliers on the global market.

Hurrache

It'll be voted against at the first vote, May will ask the EU to change the wording but the context won't differ. She'll come back saying she' got further concessions, and between that and their backs right against the wall of a no deal Brexit due to the time that elapsed, it'll go through the second time. That's my bet.