Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

charlie14

Harry Palmr wrote: »

There are enough head bangers in the Tory party to bring her down

According to the ERG they have more than enough signed and ready to go for some time.

bilston

joe40 wrote: »

If this doesn't pass the only way to avoid crashing out in march will be a change in government.
As someone who works in the north but lives in the south this is getting very worrying. For me personally a sterling crash would be a disaster, same for many people and businesses.

But what govt will replace the current lot? even if he doesn't admit it Corbyn is a genuine Brexiteer, while, even though she won't admit it now, May is a Remainer...that's the irony of this. Labour wouldn't win anyway.

If May goes, who replaces her? Johnson...I hope not. Leadsom? Sajid Javid maybe, but he is a Remainer so the Tory backbenchers may not accept him.

The only solution is a second referendum. But I'm even concerned about that now, if Brexit is overturned there would be A LOT of very angry people in Britain and the likes of UKIP and even Tommy Robinson will profit immensely. The whole thing is such a fecking mess. Honestly I'm so pissed off about it.

People criticise May a lot for calling an election last year, and yes it backfired dramatically, but the logic behind it was sound. Get a bigger majority and then these Brexit negotiations would have been a hell of a lot easier. No reliance on the ERG or DUP and more chance of a soft Brexiteer getting pushed through. Alas she couldn't campaign to save herself.

Patser

BBC reporting that Theresa May will not make a statement tonight, but will make a statement in Parliament tomorrow.

That has to mean she couldn't get her cabinet to back her, she's now completely lost any control and as one commentator on the BBC puts it the cabinet's failure to back her is already a polite 'no confidence motion'.

So now that time is up, and no amount of waffle speak is good enough, Theresa May will probably be gone and this could easily split the Tories as they'll actually have make decisions as opposed to ERG and Boris muttering 1 thing and large Remainder section muttering others.

Interesting times, chaotic from the Brits though.

Leroy42

charlie14 wrote: »

According to the ERG they have more than enough signed and ready to go for some time.

The ERG have been making threats against TM was ages now.

At this point they need to shet or get off the pot. Will they have the collective backbone to do it? I really doubt it.

There is a massive difference between playing the game of opposition and having to actually have any answers. Johnson found that out quite quickly after the referendum.

Harry Palmr

You'd have to fancy if May is deposed the public reaction would be for an election rather than just seeing the Tories replace her with someone who gets the job as least worst/least toxic candidate. Sajid Javid or Justine Greening maybe.

demfad

Patser wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May will not make a statement tonight, but will make a statement in Parliament tomorrow.

That has to mean she couldn't get her cabinet to back her, she's now completely lost any control and as one commentator on the BBC puts it the cabinet's failure to back her is already a polite 'no confidence motion'.

So now that time is up, and no amount of waffle speak is good enough, Theresa May will probably be gone and this could easily split the Tories as they'll actually have make decisions as opposed to ERG and Boris muttering 1 thing and large Remainder section muttering others.

Interesting times, chaotic from the Brits though.

Parliament did ask her to report to them before the press.

Is it let the people decide again time?

Mr.Nice Guy

Scottish nationalists probably can't believe their luck. May's strategy is to push ahead with a plan that will give NI an economic advantage over Scotland by de facto single market membership, which won't be offered to the Scots despite them having a stronger remain vote. Meanwhile, May's opponents within her party want to scupper the whole plan, resulting in Scotland being put on course for a crash-out Brexit, which would be even more appalling for their voters. Corbyn furthermore is handily not calling for a People's Vote, allowing Sturgeon to position herself as the only one with a bit of common sense vs an English political system that is effectively eating itself over Brexit.

kowtow

Raab now not going to Brussels according to Sky.

No question that something isn't quite going to plan.

I wonder will EU release the text anyway tonight?

Podge_irl

judeboy101 wrote: »

God, what do they teach in history in school these days. In my day we learned of a brave man called Roger casement who was hanged for want of a comma on a 14th century English definition of traitor. His death caused outrage leading to many Irish to refuse to fight in ww1, depriving the brits of cannon fodder and hastening their need for the yanks to join. The Russian and austro-Hungarian empires fell because of this.

This is a pretty bizarre interpretation of history.

It has the benefit of having a shred of truth while extrapolating a frankly ludicrous argument on top. It is the historical equivalent of the butterfly effect - the terrible Ashton Kutcher movie that is, not the reasonable underlying mathematical theory.

Kalyke

kowtow wrote: »

Raab now not going to Brussels according to Sky.

No question that something isn't quite going to plan.

I wonder will EU release the text anyway tonight?[/QUOTE

They said that they will release .

serfboard

bilston wrote: »

People criticise May a lot for calling an election last year, and yes it backfired dramatically, but the logic behind it was sound. Get a bigger majority and then these Brexit negotiations would have been a hell of a lot easier. No reliance on the ERG or DUP and more chance of a soft Brexiteer getting pushed through. Alas she couldn't campaign to save herself.

You could argue the exact same thing about the referendum itself.

Get the referendum passed and you see off UKIP and the Tory bastards (as John Major called them). Alas, David Cameron couldn't convince the country, and a lot of Dark American and Russian Money piled in to lie repeatedly.

The fact that the outcome (WTO? CU? CU+SM?) wasn't decided before (because Cameron assumed he'd win it) meant that it could be said to be anything and everything.

Oh yeah - and they forgot Northern Ireland completely.

hill16bhoy

When was/is it planned to hold the parliamentary vote on the deal?

If the cabinet straight up reject it, it would at least save everybody's time on that score because whatever about having a chance of passing in parliament if the cabinet accept it, it has none if the cabinet reject it.

If the cabinet reject it, I don't see how May's position is tenable. To be in power for nearly two and a half years and to finally come back with a "deal" that is shot down at the first hurdle would be an absolute humilation.

Even if it gets to parliament and is voted down, her position is untenable. Surely, the only way she can survive is if the deal passes through parliament.

If the deal falls at cabinet or parliamentary level, it would probably take two or three weeks to appoint a new PM.

Everything would then depend on the identity of that new PM.

There would surely only be two choices in terms of the type of PM that would be appointed - one who says full steam ahead for no deal, or one who commits to a second referendum.

FrancieBrady

Patser wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May will not make a statement tonight, but will make a statement in Parliament tomorrow.

That has to mean she couldn't get her cabinet to back her, she's now completely lost any control and as one commentator on the BBC puts it the cabinet's failure to back her is already a polite 'no confidence motion'.

So now that time is up, and no amount of waffle speak is good enough, Theresa May will probably be gone and this could easily split the Tories as they'll actually have make decisions as opposed to ERG and Boris muttering 1 thing and large Remainder section muttering others.

Interesting times, chaotic from the Brits though.

Is the Cabinet meeting over?

Patser

demfad wrote: »

Parliament did ask her to report to them before the press.

Is it let the people decide again time?

Yep, was just coming back in to correct/update myself.

What seems to have happened is Nick Hurd, the minister updating everyone said there'd be a press conference after cabinet meeting. MPs in house of Commons complained, there's no way May should be answering press questions about this before they could ask her, so Press conference was reduced to Press statement and proper conference tomorrow in Parliament.

All of which left Nick Hurd looking like a fool.

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Patser wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May will not make a statement tonight, but will make a statement in Parliament tomorrow.

That has to mean she couldn't get her cabinet to back her, she's now completely lost any control and as one commentator on the BBC puts it the cabinet's failure to back her is already a polite 'no confidence motion'.

So now that time is up, and no amount of waffle speak is good enough, Theresa May will probably be gone and this could easily split the Tories as they'll actually have make decisions as opposed to ERG and Boris muttering 1 thing and large Remainder section muttering others.

Interesting times, chaotic from the Brits though.

Is the Cabinet meeting over?

No, could go on for hours yet.

charlie14

Leroy42 wrote: »

The ERG have been making threats against TM was ages now.

At this point they need to shet or get off the pot. Will they have the collective backbone to do it? I really doubt it.

There is a massive difference between playing the game of opposition and having to actually have any answers. Johnson found that out quite quickly after the referendum.

It will not matter to us one way or the other if the ERG go ahead with it or not.
This deal is all but dead so it`s a hard Brexit.

We would probably be better off if they did as May cannot go back to the EU looking for a different deal even if it is doubtful if the EU would even consider dealing with another leader of the Tory party. Couldn`t blame them. It would just be a different day, same old ****e.

An Ciarraioch

Sterling going on a nosedive:

http://twitter.com/PhilAldrick/status/1062777384271822848

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, could go on for hours yet.

Quite a while alright..
https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1062769394798026753?s=19

J Mysterio

A clever text from Cork on Pat Kenny this morning... the deal is 'a stepping stone to Brexit'.

Kalyke

Statement coming next few minutes...

Franz Von Peppercorn

The EU seem to have bent over backwards here.

bilston

hill16bhoy wrote: »

When was/is it planned to hold the parliamentary vote on the deal?

Read on the BBC earlier that 7th December would be a possible date for a Commons vote. I doubt it will get that far unfortunately

Harry Palmr

I'd deck that fella!

joe40

Its like the opening scene from gladiator.
"They say no"

Then the horse comes carrying headless negotiator

FrancieBrady

Channel 4 very gloomy about Cabinet cohesion.

demfad

May about to make statement:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-46200010

devnull

Press conference cancelled.

Raab's trip to Brussels has been cancelled.

Release of agreement text today has been cancelled.

Looks like the whole thing is in serious trouble.

May to make statement.

flatty

And in the next hour, teresa may will speak briefly, and say absolutely nothing. Plenty of power words is about it.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1062778444151508992

Sammy and friends should have reflected on the words of unionism's hero nearly a hundred years ago.

"What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into Power." - Edward Carson, House of Commons, 1921.

devnull

Cabinet has balked at:
- No unilateral exit from backstop
- Large annexe on level playing field

ERG now openly saying they will force a change of leader.

She's in trouble by the look of it.