Border Poll discussion

facehugger99

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You don't compete with yourself. If after unification a multi-national company sets up in Belfast, it is a gain not a loss to Ireland.

No, it's a neutral, if they would have set up in the Republic anyway - which is what the poster was proposing.

jm08

facehugger99 wrote: »

Great, so it will be competing with us for FDI?

Sounds fantastic.

They will be ''us'' then. It will be like Cork and Limerick competing for FDI.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Are you seriously suggesting that ending partition will fix the problem of those with a British identity wanting to live in the rest of Britain?

Well, it didn't really have the desired effect having those poor misguided souls in Fermanagh and Tyrone decamping to Cavan, Donegal and Leitrim. The temerity of them staying where they're from.

I wonder blanch is there anything positive you could propose re partition? Like did it make things better, and so much so that it should continue ad infinitum.

facehugger99

jm08 wrote: »

They will be ''us'' then. It will be like Cork and Limerick competing for FDI.

So maybe explain how that's a positive.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

Are you seriously suggesting that ending partition will fix the problem of those with a British identity wanting to live in the rest of Britain?

No, I'm not. As it is, young NI graduates from GB universities do not find NI an attractive place to return to because of its ultra conservativism and lack of opportunity (unless you want or get a public services job).

jm08

facehugger99 wrote: »

So maybe explain how that's a positive.

Take Pfizer for example (who have about six plants in Ireland). They want to expand and they need an available workforce - instead of heading off to Poland, why not keep it in Ireland is and where they get exactly the same conditions just an hour from their European HQ.

facehugger99

jm08 wrote: »

Take Pfizer for example (who have about six plants in Ireland). They want to expand and they need an available workforce - instead of heading off to Poland, why not keep it in Ireland is and where they get exactly the same conditions just an hour from their European HQ.

So NI can compete with Poland because of lower corporation taxes?

Which ROI can now do anyway.

Makes no sense- there's no benefit to the republic in that scenario - it's a cost neutral example. If you want to expound on the economic benefits of a UI you're going to need to do better.

James Brown

Are those reluctant or against unification anytime soon saying partition was a bad thing, in the least for N. Ireland? I'm hearing how much of a basket case it is. My point is, it seems those seeking unification and those against it don't seem to think partition was a good thing, for varying reasons.
An exception might be for romanticised notions of Britishness amongst some?

jm08

facehugger99 wrote: »

So NI can compete with Poland because of lower corporation taxes?

Which ROI can now do anyway.

Makes no sense- there's no benefit to the republic in that scenario - it's a cost neutral example. If you want to expound on the economic benefits of a UI you're going to need to do better.

Ireland can compete because of

a) English speaking
b) Young, educated available workforce
c) Stable government

d) Corporate tax rate


The sense is that if you have all those people working away in NI paying tax to the Irish Gov., we will be beneficiaries.

Dytalus

jm08 wrote: »

Ireland can compete because of

a) English speaking
b) Young, educated available workforce
c) Stable government

d) Corporate tax rate


The sense is that if you have all those people working away in NI paying tax to the Irish Gov., we will be beneficiaries.

I think you may be missing their point.

If Pfizer were to invest in Ireland vs Poland, what difference is it versus investing in Ireland now? Reunification just changes the decision to Belfast vs Limerick vs Cork, rather than Limerick vs Cork for any new infrastructure they want to build.

My gut would say that Belfast is more enticing because of its significant population size compared to other Irish cities (bar Dublin, obviously), and the size of Belfast harbour for shipments (it currently accounts for 25% of the island of Ireland's maritime trade). Workers and maritime transport make Belfast more enticing than most cities in the Republic, and would certainly be a draw to industrial investment in a United Ireland (one more large port city is always good) - but the relatively poor infrastructure in NI might be a turn off that counters it.

These companies aren't investing in NI as things stand, would they really be guaranteed to invest in a UI? They'd be more likely to, certainly. The UK hasn't focused on driving investment into NI as much as it has into England, and with Brexit on the horizon Ireland as a whole would have the draw of being the only officially English-speaking nation in the EU. Whether the increase in NI's attractiveness would be enough to actually bring companies into the region is a sizable debate in and of itself.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, it didn't really have the desired effect having those poor misguided souls in Fermanagh and Tyrone decamping to Cavan, Donegal and Leitrim. The temerity of them staying where they're from.

I wonder blanch is there anything positive you could propose re partition? Like did it make things better, and so much so that it should continue ad infinitum.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Are those reluctant or against unification anytime soon saying partition was a bad thing, in the least for N. Ireland? I'm hearing how much of a basket case it is. My point is, it seems those seeking unification and those against it don't seem to think partition was a good thing, for varying reasons.
An exception might be for romanticised notions of Britishness amongst some?

There are a couple of things to consider.

Firstly, as has been postulated on this thread (and not refuted), Germany is not seeing the benefits of unification 25 years on that were predicted or expected.

Secondly, I and others are arguing that thanks to 100 years of divergence means there are huge differences in culture, economics and society. These will not vanish overnight, nor can they easily be overcome.

Thirdly, while it is not a basket-case, it is a region of the UK that requires excessive subvention. Where it has suffered economically, it can be traced back to a number of factors including a reliance on heavy industry and a failure to modernise. The wholly unnecessary terrorist campaign also paid a part in the economic failings of Northern Ireland and reinforced the other problems by creating a defensive and introverted culture among the population targetted by the campaign. The modern DUP is in many ways a creature created by the IRA.

Fourthly, the resistance to unity is constantly under-estimated by those backing it.

Fifthly, the naive predictions that you can get rid of hundreds of thousands of Northern Irish civil servants while forgetting that you need them to vote for unity don't convince. It may well be that people won't vote against unity down South even if it means increased taxation, but people will always vote to save their job.

Finally, we wouldn't even be having this discussion it it wasn't for Brexit. Brexit may not happen, or we may end up with the softest of Brexits, in which case we will all be reminded that the current system actually works quite well for both sides. Up until Brexit appeared over the hill, there was no great desire for unity and in many ways the Brexit issue has been hijacked. We are all in danger of ignoring the bigger economic issues if we are distracted by the border one.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

There are a couple of things to consider.

Firstly, as has been postulated on this thread (and not refuted), Germany is not seeing the benefits of unification 25 years on that were predicted or expected.

Secondly, I and others are arguing that thanks to 100 years of divergence means there are huge differences in culture, economics and society. These will not vanish overnight, nor can they easily be overcome.

Thirdly, while it is not a basket-case, it is a region of the UK that requires excessive subvention. Where it has suffered economically, it can be traced back to a number of factors including a reliance on heavy industry and a failure to modernise. The wholly unnecessary terrorist campaign also paid a part in the economic failings of Northern Ireland and reinforced the other problems by creating a defensive and introverted culture among the population targetted by the campaign. The modern DUP is in many ways a creature created by the IRA.

Fourthly, the resistance to unity is constantly under-estimated by those backing it.

Fifthly, the naive predictions that you can get rid of hundreds of thousands of Northern Irish civil servants while forgetting that you need them to vote for unity don't convince. It may well be that people won't vote against unity down South even if it means increased taxation, but people will always vote to save their job.

Finally, we wouldn't even be having this discussion it it wasn't for Brexit. Brexit may not happen, or we may end up with the softest of Brexits, in which case we will all be reminded that the current system actually works quite well for both sides. Up until Brexit appeared over the hill, there was no great desire for unity and in many ways the Brexit issue has been hijacked. We are all in danger of ignoring the bigger economic issues if we are distracted by the border one.

There are not huge differences in culture. Even the Ulster-Scots claim ownership of the Irish province of Ulster as part of their heritage. They use the red hand quite happily. They have lived on and farmed the same land as us and viewed as Irish by the entire world albeit under the jurisdiction of the UK, (those who are aware of that). So while there are some cultural differences, they are very minor and more to do with their politics and that's not even true of the entire population.

As for 'The wholly unnecessary terrorist campaign' despite any PR to the contrary most people seek peace, including nationalists. Freedom fighters/terrorists are not born in a vacuum they require external factors to come into being.
I would argue that the IRA was a need created by the attitude of the likes of the DUP and their ilk including criminal and terrorist activities perpetrated by the British forces and government.

So you say. I think the idea of the north's financials playing a major role in peoples decisions is exaggerated IMO.

There is no move to sack any civil servants. This is one of many issues that needs debating. There are numerous options. The north will need administrators, especially during the move to unification.

No, Brexit is just the latest in a long line of issues that brings the ongoing, never ending discussion on reunification to the fore. Trying to compare the two is a false analogy.

Chips Lovell

The IRA actually predates the DUP.

James Brown

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

The IRA actually predates the DUP.

If thats regarding my post:

"I would argue that the IRA was a need created by the attitude of the likes of the DUP and their ilk including criminal and terrorist activities perpetrated by the British forces and government."

Those who created a need for the IRA had the mechanics of the state on their side.

Chips Lovell

Exactly, that chicken was there before the egg. Regarding the final line, that's akin to saying that US interference in the Middle East crated a "need" for Osama bin Laden. Perhaps a poor choice of words on your part?

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

If thats regarding my post:

"I would argue that the IRA was a need created by the attitude of the likes of the DUP and their ilk including criminal and terrorist activities perpetrated by the British forces and government."

Those who created a need for the IRA had the mechanics of the state on their side.

There are millions of Irish people who abhorred everything the IRA did and everything they stood for. There was no need for the IRA.

There is only very rarely a need for violence to achieve political ends. Northern Ireland after the civil rights reforms was not such a place that "needed" violence.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

There are not huge differences in culture.

Have you ever spent time in Northern Ireland?

Abortion, same-sex marriage, retail hours, flags, parades, observation of the Sabbath, drinking culture, some of them reflect badly on them, some of them reflect badly on us.

Yet there is no denying that there are differences.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Even the Ulster-Scots claim ownership of the Irish province of Ulster as part of their heritage. They use the red hand quite happily. They have lived on and farmed the same land as us and viewed as Irish by the entire world albeit under the jurisdiction of the UK, (those who are aware of that). So while there are some cultural differences, they are very minor and more to do with their politics and that's not even true of the entire population.

It is what they view themselves as that is crucial. One of the key aspects of the GFA was the recognition of both identities living on this island - the British as well as the Irish one. You are attempting to conflate their identity into an Irish one, which is a rejection of the principles of the GFA.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

As for 'The wholly unnecessary terrorist campaign' despite any PR to the contrary most people seek peace, including nationalists. Freedom fighters/terrorists are not born in a vacuum they require external factors to come into being.
I would argue that the IRA was a need created by the attitude of the likes of the DUP and their ilk including criminal and terrorist activities perpetrated by the British forces and government.

I reject this completely and it is an insult to the likes of John Hume, Seamus Mallon and many hundreds of thousands of others who campaigned peacefully for civil rights and never resorted to violence.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

So you say. I think the idea of the north's financials playing a major role in peoples decisions is exaggerated IMO.

There is no move to sack any civil servants. This is one of many issues that needs debating. There are numerous options. The north will need administrators, especially during the move to unification.

Which is it? We will save a fortune by sacking civil servants or we will keep them all on and pay them a fair Dublin rate for their work? I wish proponents of unification would come clean on such issues and tell us which they favour.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

No, Brexit is just the latest in a long line of issues that brings the ongoing, never ending discussion on reunification to the fore. Trying to compare the two is a false analogy.

The North was stable until Brexit. If brexit disappears, it will be stable again.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I reject this completely and it is an insult to the likes of John Hume, Seamus Mallon and many hundreds of thousands of others who campaigned peacefully for civil rights and never resorted to violence.

They didn't have to. Just as the Irish state didn't have to sacrifice anything to protect those Irish in the north in the late 60's 70's.

Somebody else filled the vacuum, that is the point. And the people are still thankful to them...witness their political wing's performance in the polls.

Hard to swallow for the likes of Mallon, who is seriously embittered about it (I think Hume always seen the inevitability of it, even though he couldn't stomach a physical fight himself) but those are the facts.

Junkyard Tom

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

The IRA actually predates the DUP.

Oh no, not this again.

The PIRA, the main Republican protagonist during the troubles, was well predated by the DUP's predecessor the Protestant Unionist Party. The PIRA was also predated by:

1966

21 May: UVF declare war on the Irish Republican Army (IRA). At the time, the IRA was not engaged in armed action.

May/June: The UVF carried out three sectarian attacks killing three.

1968

24 August:

Loyalists attack civil rights marches

1969

January:

A People's Democracy march ambushed by 200 loyalists and off-duty police (RUC) officers armed with iron bars, bricks and bottles.

RUC officers went on a rampage in the Bogside area of Derry; attacking Catholic homes, attacking and threatening residents, and hurling sectarian abuse.

March-April:

Members of the loyalist UVF and UPV bombed water and electricity installations in Northern Ireland, in deceitful false flag attacks, blaming them on the dormant IRA and on elements of the civil rights movement. There were six bombings and all were widely blamed on the IRA.

Samuel Devenny, Civilian, beaten to death by the RUC.

Francis McCloskey, Civilian, beaten to death by the RUC.

August:

Loyalist ethnic cleansing forces thousands of Catholics to flee their homes to refugee camps in the South.

October–December:

The UVF detonated bombs in the Republic of Ireland.

December 1969:

Provisional IRA split from IRA.

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

Which is it? We will save a fortune by sacking civil servants or we will keep them all on and pay them a fair Dublin rate for their work? I wish proponents of unification would come clean on such issues and tell us which they favour.

What part of voluntary redundancies and natural wastage do you not understand? You don't have to sack people to reduce the number employed in the civil service.
You are setting up a false choice and complaining when people don't dance to your tune.

The North was stable until Brexit. If brexit disappears, it will be stable again.

While arguably prolonged by Brexit, the current crisis in the devolved arangement in the North was not caused by Brexit, it was caused by DUP corrution and and a growing feeling in the nationalist community that Unionism was treating nationalists as a second class people and which resulted in SF being pressured by their electorate to stand up for them.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What part of voluntary redundancies and natural wastage do you not understand? You don't have to sack people to reduce the number employed in the civil service.
You are setting up a false choice and complaining when people don't dance to your tune.

Yeah, because we have such amazing luck with that here already! :pac:

I don't think anyone is trying to rain on the (premature) parade; it's just asking for a pinch of realism.

James Brown

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

Exactly, that chicken was there before the egg. Regarding the final line, that's akin to saying that US interference in the Middle East crated a "need" for Osama bin Laden. Perhaps a poor choice of words on your part?

No. Your interpretation is wrong.
The sentence reads:

I would argue that the IRA was a need created by the attitude of the likes of the DUP and their ilk including criminal and terrorist activities perpetrated by the British forces and government.

I'm simply saying organisations like the IRA are born out of environment. Not from a vacuum. Attitudes and actions carried out by the likes of the DUP and their ilk. Unless we are suggesting that before the DUP nobody had the same views as their membership? Either way, I've settled it. You know now what I meant.

blanch152 wrote: »

There are millions of Irish people who abhorred everything the IRA did and everything they stood for. There was no need for the IRA.

There is only very rarely a need for violence to achieve political ends. Northern Ireland after the civil rights reforms was not such a place that "needed" violence.

True, but they felt they needed an IRA. There was no need in your opinion.
Your opinion again. Others differ.

blanch152 wrote: »

Have you ever spent time in Northern Ireland?

Abortion, same-sex marriage, retail hours, flags, parades, observation of the Sabbath, drinking culture, some of them reflect badly on them, some of them reflect badly on us.

Yet there is no denying that there are differences.

We've religious groups down south too and likely some flat earthers also.

blanch152 wrote: »

It is what they view themselves as that is crucial. One of the key aspects of the GFA was the recognition of both identities living on this island - the British as well as the Irish one. You are attempting to conflate their identity into an Irish one, which is a rejection of the principles of the GFA.

True, disagreeing with your opinion on "huge differences in culture, economics and society."

blanch152 wrote: »

I reject this completely and it is an insult to the likes of John Hume, Seamus Mallon and many hundreds of thousands of others who campaigned peacefully for civil rights and never resorted to violence.

Nonsense. Some people obviously felt violent action was the only course open to them. Some had a different view.

blanch152 wrote: »

Which is it? We will save a fortune by sacking civil servants or we will keep them all on and pay them a fair Dublin rate for their work? I wish proponents of unification would come clean on such issues and tell us which they favour.

We'll have to see won't we? There are many options. You're the one suggesting mass lay offs.

blanch152 wrote: »

The North was stable until Brexit. If brexit disappears, it will be stable again.

Have you been following Stormount, the troubles, internment, shoot to kill, H-Block, the GFA and on and on? Are you really trying to say before Brexit it was stable?

blanch152

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What part of voluntary redundancies and natural wastage do you not understand? You don't have to sack people to reduce the number employed in the civil service.
You are setting up a false choice and complaining when people don't dance to your tune.

Voluntary redundancy costs money. Voluntary early retirement costs even more money. If natrual wastage see nurses leave for Dubai, you can't just replace them with surplus fire-fighters. Your ideas are the sort of nonsense that convinced Charlie McCreevy that decentralisation could work. It didn't.

At least now though, we do know that you favour one of the more costly options.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

While arguably prolonged by Brexit, the current crisis in the devolved arangement in the North was not caused by Brexit, it was caused by DUP corrution and and a growing feeling in the nationalist community that Unionism was treating nationalists as a second class people and which resulted in SF being pressured by their electorate to stand up for them.

The current crisis in the devolved arrangement would not lead anyone to talk about unity. It is only Brexit that has led to a discussion.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

We'll have to see won't we? There are many options. You're the one suggesting mass lay offs.

Some people believe there is a magic money tree option where there is no cost to the option. I don't.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Have you been following Stormount, the troubles, internment, shoot to kill, H-Block, the GFA and on and on? Are you really trying to say before Brexit it was stable?

The North has been stable since the GFA up until Brexit. Since Brexit, those with a unity agenda have used Brexit to attempt to destablise the North to further their agenda.

It is no surprise that the likes of Varadkar and Martin have cautioned against these charlatans.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

Some people believe there is a magic money tree option where there is no cost to the option. I don't.

As usually the case when the 'magic money tree' fallacy is wheeled out, no, they really don't.

blanch152 wrote: »

The North has been stable since the GFA up until Brexit. Since Brexit, those with a unity agenda have used Brexit to attempt to destablise the North to further their agenda.

It is no surprise that the likes of Varadkar and Martin have cautioned against these charlatans.

So not before Brexit as you claimed, but after the GFA, okay. Stormont collapsed over the scandal of DUP fraud. If there were no Brexit it would still be the same situation, unstable.
No, people are suggesting Brexit might speed up the process of looking at a united Ireland. I'd be very careful about using the term 'charlatans' in the same sentence as Varadkar and Martin.

murphaph

If Brexit doesn't happen a border poll won't happen either.

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

Voluntary redundancy costs money. Voluntary early retirement costs even more money. If natrual wastage see nurses leave for Dubai, you can't just replace them with surplus fire-fighters. Your ideas are the sort of nonsense that convinced Charlie McCreevy that decentralisation could work. It didn't.

At least now though, we do know that you favour one of the more costly options.

A rather simplistic contribution if you ask me. While you could implement a rigid recruitment ban and try to use surplus fire fighters to staff hospitals, I don't think that is a very credible suggestion.

Why not apply even the most basic level of cop on and consider that a restructuring plan that identifies the staffing levels needed in a post unification Irish civil service can be drawn up and that the numbers of staff can be brought into line with requirement over time through not replacing unnecessary staff, while still alowing for the recruitment of nurses as necessary.

Is there a cost to doing it this way? Yes, I never denied that, but those are the choices you make to avoid other problems like destabelising a region through massive forced layoffs from the public sector on day 1, or alternativly failing to restructure anything and bearing a needless economic burden forevermore.

It is rather instructive that the problems you identify are largely dependant on a complete absence of planning or the most inept planning possible.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The North has been stable since the GFA up until Brexit.

This is the kind of ill informed comment that has been employed for 100 years by those who wish to ignore partition and worse ignore those affected most by partition.

McMurphy

murphaph wrote: »

If Brexit doesn't happen a border poll won't happen either.

Wishful thinking by some I'm sure, but the reality is that the GFA is a one way street regardless, with the cul de sac ending being a border poll.

murphaph

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Wishful thinking by some I'm sure, but the reality is that the GFA is a one way street regardless, with the cul de sac ending being a border poll.

Yeah maybe some day but it would be decades away.