Goodwood

gazza1

Confiding 9/2 2.25

This is a big step up for a horse who won a class 4 maiden on its only start but you can only beat what's put in front of you.
The 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 7th and 8th all won nto and the 9th has won since.
Having stayed on strongly over the 6f it looks like he will relish the step up to 7f

GL

TheMilkyPirate

I'm really liking Tip to win at 4/1

:EDIT ended up getting 6s

longshotvalue

I'm convinced that Desert Skyline will outrun his odds today, and has a very good chance to be 2nd (10/1 with lads in the w/o market)


Best option looks to be take the 22/1 to win with paddy (max €20) and get a free bet if Fav wins. If he wins happy days, if the fav wins, we'll use that free bet no problem.

tryfix

Had thought that Van Beethoven was a big price in the Vintage Stakes, thankfully I didn't get on. :pac:

No other big race jockey in the world can be as consistent at finding loads and loads of trouble in running as Ryan Moore is. As I was watching the race wondering if he was been held up for a late run it was no surprise to see Ryan with loads of horse under him get blocked at least twice with the horse running on for a close enough 5th that he would almost certainly have placed in 2nd or 3rd if he had been given a clear run.

It really is time for Coolmore to sack "the World's greatest jockey". :rolleyes:

BorneTobyWilde

Breton Rock back down to 7f at 25-1 ew in the 3.00 for me.

stretchaq

i must be mental i fancy Idaho

BorneTobyWilde

Desert Skyline 16-1 ew in the 3.35
I think it's the one to challenge Strad today .

BorneTobyWilde

Napanook 12-1 a great ew in 4.10
Really like this to win

antietam

Kloud Gate ran well last time out when I put him up at 33/1 and he is fancied again tomorrow 13/2 Goodwood 1.50.

Joe_ Public

On the forecast ground I'd give Gustav Klimt a serious chance of reversing Royal Ascot form with Without Parole in the Sussex today, only half a length to make up, but the 3 year olds look a bit vulnerable here, certainly no Kingman among them anyway I would venture. Lightning Spear goes well here, was a close up third in the race last year, and looks a solid shout to me at 10/1.

tryfix

I wasn't a believer in Without Parole before the St James Palace Stakes and I wasn't too impressed with his narrow won over Gustav Klimt then, but I was exceptionally impressed with his physique that day. Based on the fact that I think he's an exceptional specimen and John Gosden's ability to do "magic" I think Without Parole is going to improve enough to beat a pretty crap field. He's a good price and I was happy to grab some of it.

Expert Eye looks a danger given Stoute's red hot form but none of Acclamation's stock have won a Gp1 over a mile ( Expert Eye is giving out conflicting signals on that front ) and I think his Jersey win isn't quite as good form as it looked at the time.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

I wasn't a believer in Without Parole before the St James Palace Stakes and I wasn't too impressed with his narrow won over Gustav Klimt then, but I was exceptionally impressed with his physique that day. Based on the fact that I think he's an exceptional specimen and John Gosden's ability to do "magic" I think Without Parole is going to improve enough to beat a pretty crap field. He's a good price and I was happy to grab some of it.

Expert Eye looks a danger given Stoute's red hot form but none of Acclamation's stock have won a Gp1 over a mile ( Expert Eye is giving out conflicting signals on that front ) and I think his Jersey win isn't quite as good form as it looked at the time.

2 of my equine crushes going head to head. Hopefully it's a good race. Be dissapointing if one of the 2 of them can't win it. The older horses are a pretty average bunch.

Joe_ Public

tryfix wrote: »

I wasn't a believer in Without Parole before the St James Palace Stakes and I wasn't too impressed with his narrow won over Gustav Klimt then, but I was exceptionally impressed with his physique that day. Based on the fact that I think he's an exceptional specimen and John Gosden's ability to do "magic" I think Without Parole is going to improve enough to beat a pretty crap field. He's a good price and I was happy to grab some of it.

Expert Eye looks a danger given Stoute's red hot form but none of Acclamation's stock have won a Gp1 over a mile ( Expert Eye is giving out conflicting signals on that front ) and I think his Jersey win isn't quite as good form as it looked at the time.

You'd expect he would improve alright. But didn't think that was Donnchadh's finest hour at Ascot and fav had race run to suit. I'd still give Gustav a fair chance of reversing those places.

Auroras_encore

2.25 soto sizzler 20/1
3.35 Gustav Klimt 8/1
4.45 carvela 10/1
5.55 truth or dare 22/1

kiers47

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You'd expect he would improve alright. But didn't think that was Donnchadh's finest hour at Ascot and fav had race run to suit. I'd still give Gustav a fair chance of reversing those places.

Its gas how opinions differ in this game.
I actually thought the complete opposite. I thought that Gustav got as close to him that day as possible. He had the race run perfectly for him.
Without Parole on the other hand was in front about a furlong to soon as he traveled so well into the race. He didnt do a tap once he got to the furlong pole and just idled in front. I think i put something similar up in the Ascot thread.

I wont be having a bet but id be shocked if WP didnt put more ground between them today.

Joe_ Public

kiers47 wrote: »

Its gas how opinions differ in this game.
I actually thought the complete opposite. I thought that Gustav got as close to him that day as possible. He had the race run perfectly for him.
Without Parole on the other hand was in front about a furlong to soon as he traveled so well into the race. He didnt do a tap once he got to the furlong pole and just idled in front. I think i put something similar up in the Ascot thread.

I wont be having a bet but id be shocked if WP didnt put more ground between them today.

You could well be right and WP could be the real deal. But for whatever reason, I just never felt Donnchadh got serious enough on Gustav that day, not sure he believed he had a serious chance of winning until it was too late. I'm not backing him to win today or anything but it would just put a smidgin of doubt in my mind about the favourite, enough to make me want to take him on with something anyway.

kiers47

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You could well be right and WP could be the real deal. But for whatever reason, I just never felt Donnchadh got serious enough on Gustav that day, not sure he believed he had a serious chance of winning until it was too late. I'm not backing him to win today or anything but it would just put a smidgin of doubt in my mind about the favourite, enough to make me want to take him on with something anyway.

Yep fair comments. Time will tell

Mgoraf

No one better than sds on a front runner

longshotvalue

Mgoraf wrote: »

No one better than sds on a front runner

That was a joy to watch.

munster87

Everything about that ride was brilliant.

tryfix

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You'd expect he would improve alright. But didn't think that was Donnchadh's finest hour at Ascot and fav had race run to suit. I'd still give Gustav a fair chance of reversing those places.

Ah I don't know if it's fair to blame Donnacha for not being near enough to get there at Ascot, although I would agree that he's nowhere near as strong in a finish as Ryan Moore would be. Donnacha has a better pair of hands through a race than Ryan IMO.

I backed Gustav that day to have a go at Without Parole who hadn't the form to justify his price at Ascot. I was happy enough with Gustav's run that day, it's his best piece of form by a long way. The problem with Gustav Klimt is that he seems to be basically a carbon copy of his full brother Mars who used to run on into the top 4 in a string of the best Gp1s over trips from a mile to 1m 4f. Regardless of the class of the race Mars ran much the same sort of race, he took tons of money off punters who expected him to get a win based on his excellent placed efforts.

I'd love to see Gustav Klimt do it, but I couldn't be on him based on history. Hopefully for his chances there'll be a ferocious pace that'll allow him to run on against the tiring horses in front.

longshotvalue

Not sure i like the 3yo form after looking at the main form races .

Went with a few combo tricasts and forecasts with Beat/Lighting/lord in any order for a fun bet.

kiers47

Lightning Spear. Jesus the 3yo's thats disappointing.

I suppose if any horse deserved that its Lightning Spear.

*A couple of more points on second thoughts.
Expert Eye definitely needs to be stepped down again to at least 7. Maybe 6.
I think id give Without Parole another chance again nto on better ground. That was to bad to be true. He may not be as good as i thought but he is definitely better than that running.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Not sure i like the 3yo form after looking at the main form races .

Went with a few combo tricasts and forecasts with Beat/Lighting/lord in any order for a fun bet.

Feck it Lord Glitters just couldnt get out in time..

Joe_ Public

tryfix wrote: »

Ah I don't know if it's fair to blame Donnacha for not being near enough to get there at Ascot, although I would agree that he's nowhere near as strong in a finish as Ryan Moore would be. Donnacha has a better pair of hands through a race than Ryan IMO.

I backed Gustav that day to have a go at Without Parole who hadn't the form to justify his price at Ascot. I was happy enough with Gustav's run that day, it's his best piece of form by a long way. The problem with Gustav Klimt is that he seems to be basically a carbon copy of his full brother Mars who used to run on into the top 4 in a string of the best Gp1s over trips from a mile to 1m 4f. Regardless of the class of the race Mars ran much the same sort of race, he took tons of money off punters who expected him to get a win based on his excellent placed efforts.

I'd love to see Gustav Klimt do it, but I couldn't be on him based on history. Hopefully for his chances there'll be a ferocious pace that'll allow him to run on against the tiring horses in front.

Bit of a muddle of a race but think you had Gustav summed up well in fairness, had every chance but just didnt' get their quickly enough. Just lacks the necessary toe at that level.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Lightning Spear. Jesus the 3yo's thats disappointing.

I suppose if any horse deserved that its Lightning Spear.

*A couple of more points on second thoughts.
Expert Eye definitely needs to be stepped down again to at least 7. Maybe 6.
I think id give Without Parole another chance again nto on better ground. That was to bad to be true. He may not be as good as i thought but he is definitely better than that running.

I not sure I'd give Without Parole another chance, he's a Frankel and they're very dodgy yokes. I'm not sure what happened to him, he got passed out and then he seemed to have got back to the front when he then seemed to run too close to the rail? and that was the end of his chances.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

I not sure I'd give Without Parole another chance, he's a Frankel and they're very dodgy yokes. I'm not sure what happened to him, he got passed out and then he seemed to have got back to the front when he then seemed to run too close to the rail? and that was the end of his chances.

You may be right. But he is certainly better than that showing imo. I didnt have a bet and probably wont back him next time. But i think it would be foolish to right him off on 1 bad run.

BumperD

Phone acting up get on feel glorious Goodwood got pm from Sting

mailburner

alhakmah :eek: won't be much of a price next time out based on that

some amount of ground made up there

BumperD

mailburner wrote: »

alhakmah :eek: won't be much of a price next time out based on that

some amount of ground made up there

De Souza murdered him 3 or 4 out

BumperD

mailburner wrote: »

alhakmah :eek: won't be much of a price next time out based on that

some amount of ground made up there

De Souza on Aim power murdered him 3 or 4 out so he had to switch