US Presidential Election 2020

rossie1977

Cruz was most unpopular senator in America and even with tons of national media publicity and donations from outside Texas O'Rourke failed to win. Trump is alot more popular than Cruz so I don't see how O'Rourke beats him nationwide.

As for VP I doubt the main candidates pick each other. Someone like Stacey Abrams has better chance of being Biden’s vp than Warren.

StringerBell

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you are wrong, I don't like him. I said he has a better chance of beating Trump than what's leading the race.
What annoyed me was you saying that because he didn't win Texas that he shouldn't be considered when his performance would be a bigger deal than a Dem winning Massachusetts.
Trying to back your argument with your own prediction that a Dem will win Texas soon is ridiculous at best.

I'm not trying to back my own argument with that point, it is to show you how foolish your metric is, or how fragile it is maybe is a better way of saying it. Texas is republican at the minute, great. Not like it hasn't been showing signs of change over the last few years though so relying on historical data to back a point isnt all that great.

His performance was great, and he should have built on it by staying in Texas, helping to turn in blue and come again later, he is a young man with no real record to speak of but had some good momentum going for him. His arrogance has probably cost him but it isn't too late for him to rehabilitate and come again.

He couldn't win a senate seat in his home state. This provides plenty of evidence that he wasn't ready to step into the national stage, his performance on the national stage confirmed that.

Danzy

marno21 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/business/status/1190590990693871619

This this this x1000

This is a lot of the reason Biden is the clear winner. Theres an election to be won here and extremism is not the answer

It is painfully obvious but many of the activists won't care, they have all the answers and if you don't agree, then you are a gammon, a dascisy, alt right, a Zio or an Uncle Tom or one of the countless others.

They are like missionaries for their God.

Danzy

Jamiekelly wrote: »

"This is a lot of the reason Biden is the clear winner. Theres an election to be won here and extremism is not the answer"

Biden has been losing ground since his campaign began. We have a pefect example of centrism vs extremism with Trump and HC. It didn't end well for Clinton and it won't end well for Biden either. The man can barely remember Obama's name sometimes as well as going on rambling tangents that have nothing to do with the questions that get asked. To be honest what would Pelosi know at this point? She is nearly 80 years old and has come out in favour of unrestricted NSA powers and was openly defending waterboarding as not being legally classed as torture. That kind of thinking doesn't get ANY kind of democrat excited to go to the polls.

Trump isn't really extreme, he is loud and talks a lot though he is like a pre Reagan Republican or even Democrat despite all the drama.

One way he has been very radical is rolling back in areas that were bastions of neoliberal economics since the 80s.


His position in trade is closest to Bernie Sanders.

His scrapping of the EU US trade deal and Pacific trade one were the biggest setback in 40 years to the unfettered free market world vision.

His crackdown on illegal migration has driven record wage growth for African Americans especially and strong wage growth and employment for the poorer on society.

They are things Democrats should have been doing as standard, not castigating him for it.

He is no progressive but he ran with the obvious.

Professor Moriarty

Danzy wrote: »

Trump isn't really extreme, he is loud and talks a lot though he is like a pre Reagan Republican or even Democrat despite all the drama.

One way he has been very radical is rolling back in areas that were bastions of neoliberal economics since the 80s.


His position in trade is closest to Bernie Sanders.

His scrapping of the EU US trade deal and Pacific trade one were the biggest setback in 40 years to the unfettered free market world vision.

His crackdown on illegal migration has driven record wage growth for African Americans especially and strong wage growth and employment for the poorer on society.

They are things Democrats should have been doing as standard, not castigating him for it.

He is no progressive but he ran with the obvious.

How's his environmental policies doing? How's the deficit getting on?

Danzy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

How's his environmental policies doing? How's the deficit getting on?

Don't like his environmental position but his position on trade and migration are the first break from Reaganism In decades, hopefully that will continue and spread politically.

The deficit is a concern but it is not at dangerous levels and there is strong growth in their economy.

He is far from ideal but he is at least better than the alternatives.

Professor Moriarty

Danzy wrote: »

Don't like his environmental position but his position on trade and migration are the first break from Reaganism In decades, hopefully that will continue and spread politically.

The deficit is a concern but it is not at dangerous levels and there is strong growth in their economy.

He is far from ideal but he is at least better than the alternatives.

Instead of leading the fight against climate change, he has shredded American environmental polices to enrich his billionaire cronies. He even called climate change a Chinese conspiracy. He's that stupid or that much of a liar. Or both.

The deficit is a disaster. It grew by 17% in 2018 and that total then grew by 26% in 2019. Trump doesn't give a crap though. He'll be dead when it comes home to roost.

He is a dreadful person and a dreadful president. He is a narcissistic and lying racist who feeds off division. Bozo the clown would be a better alternative.

Danzy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Instead of leading the fight against climate change, he has shredded American environmental polices to enrich his billionaire cronies. He even called climate change a Chinese conspiracy. He's that stupid or that much of a liar. Or both.

The deficit is a disaster. It grew by 17% in 2018 and that total then grew by 26% in 2019. Trump doesn't give a crap though. He'll be dead when it comes home to roost.

He is a dreadful person and a dreadful president. He is a narcissistic and lying racist who feeds off division. Bozo the clown would be a better alternative.

Record low unemployment for African American s and strong job growth for Hispanic Americans and wider working class America. The best President for them in decades.

Like I said he is far from ideal but on certain key issues he is moving things along nicely.

At the least he marks the end of Reaganism.

marno21

Danzy wrote: »

Record low unemployment for African American s and strong job growth for Hispanic Americans and wider working class America. The best President for them in decades.

Like I said he is far from ideal but on certain key issues he is moving things along nicely.

At the least he marks the end of Reaganism.

You are still ignoring the points about the deficit.

Burning the furniture to heat the house is not an effective economic policy.

Overheal

Danzy wrote: »

Record low unemployment for African American s and strong job growth for Hispanic Americans and wider working class America. The best President for them in decades.

Like I said he is far from ideal but on certain key issues he is moving things along nicely.

At the least he marks the end of Reaganism.

You aren’t living it and your view is cobbled together from dear leader remarks about the economy?

Danzy

Overheal wrote: »

You aren’t living it and your view is cobbled together from dear leader remarks about the economy?

I'm looking at the statistics.

We'll get back on topic though.

Mayor Pete in 20% in Iowa. 3rd place.

He looks like being a serious contender now.

Jesus effing Christ

It's corporate donations and the mainstream media silence on the issue that fires up the dems base.

Hopefully now as the field narrows the emphasis will go on policy positions and looking at past actions as an indicator to future actions.
Like, is it true that Biden has received over 2 million in campaign contributions from the financial industry.
And would this money have influenced his decision to go after student bankruptcy protection in 2005, so now you have one law for the rich and one for the poor.
, how about his role in the war on drugs?
Like all corporate dems, he's always banging on about bipartisanship it always sounds so reasonable how it plays out isn't so reasonable
So what has he achieved working with his Republican colleagues? I know he's gotten Republican proposals passed but what Democratic proposals has he achieved

Jesus effing Christ

Danzy wrote: »

It is painfully obvious but many of the activists won't care, they have all the answers and if you don't agree, then you are a gammon, a dascisy, alt right, a Zio or an Uncle Tom or one of the countless others.

They are like missionaries for their God.

These people you're talking about on this thread seem very unreasonable.
How many of these people do you reckon are out there?
Where are they? how do you know they actually exist in significant numbers?
For years now I've seen a massive amount of online chat about sjw's and I'm sure you have people out there that loosely fit that general description but I'd imagine outta 327million the amount is quite small
I've lived in Europe Ireland USA in this time and I've yet to meet anyone like that.

Bill Maher is a propagandist

rossie1977

Danzy wrote: »

Trump isn't really extreme, he is loud and talks a lot though he is like a pre Reagan Republican or even Democrat despite all the drama.

He is much further to the right than Reagan or any Dem president since the 30s.

I know it seems normal now after 3 years but banning certain religions entering the US, calling all hispanic immigrants, rapists/dogs and murderers, calling the press the enemy of the people, identifying certain groups and making them a unifying cause to build around, such distain for intellectuals in science and the arts, the unchecked cronyism at top level is not normal.

It's actually very dangerous and even if Trump himself doesn't go full tilt someone after him will be empowered to after this presidency. I mean we already have nazi group marching down the middle of us cities with torches

pixelburp

I'm not sure I'd be throwing around employment numbers, especially if they're government ones. I can't think of a single statistic more often and willingly inflated or fluffed than employment stats, and that goes for ANY country. It's equally cheap when economies often take YEARS to recover; this idea that Trump should take credit for a recovery that likely started in 2009, 2010 is asinine;

Economies don't take 1-3 years to get better, and any Irish person posting here should know this all too well - plenty here would insist that our economy / society HASN'T yet improved, given spiralling house prices again. Point being, why should we give praise to Trump for simply being the man left standing when the numbers come in?

That goes especially for a country with no social safety nets & a burgeoning ...*vomit* "Gig economy" bolstered by the Ubers, GrubHubs et al; high employment figures mean nothing if there are a disportioncate number of people working 2, 3 jobs just to keep their head above the water. Or if many of those jobs are these zero-hour contracts that mean absolutely nothing.

Beechwoodspark

Seeing more h Clinton stories lately. It would be sweet revenge if she were to take the WH off him.

Wanderer78

Beechwoodspark wrote:

Seeing more h Clinton stories lately. It would be sweet revenge if she were to take the WH off him.

Can't see that happening in 2020, but maybe in 2024, who knows

Fr Tod Umptious

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Can't see that happening in 2020, but maybe in 2024, who knows

She'd be close on 80 in 2024

I seriously doubt it.

And anyway what would make her a better candidate now than she was in 2016 ?

Wanderer78

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

She'd be close on 80 in 2024

I seriously doubt it.

And anyway what would make her a better candidate now than she was in 2016 ?

i personally think her time is done, i also suspect, trump has 2020 sown up

marno21

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i personally think her time is done, i also suspect, trump has 2020 sown up

Oh he does ya

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1191042555732992004

Fr Tod Umptious

marno21 wrote: »

Oh he does ya

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1191042555732992004

Electoral college my friend, electoral college.

These sorts of numbers are useless if you don't know what the state breakdown is.

That's why the Bloomberg one posted a few days back is more accurate, it looks at a state by state view.

pixelburp

Any outlet running articles on a potential Clinton run is peddling clickbait; it's as simple as that. Clinton might have been an awful candidate, but I don't believe her hubris is that insurmountable that she couldn't see the destructive folly about a re-run.

And frankly, if it's not clickbait, then it's just GOP adjacents desperately trying to re-ignite the anti Clinton sentiment, because they know the likes of Biden, Sanders and Warren to be either non-establishment or more likeable than the 2016 Democrat. The desperation in continuously invoking the Ghost of Elections Past has been kinda pathetic.

Danzy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Seeing more h Clinton stories lately. It would be sweet revenge if she were to take the WH off him.

While Clinton threw it away by taking many States for granted, she is also a deeply flawed candidate, that isn't going to change.

She would quickly amass a war chest from Wall St that would make her campaign the largest to date in America.

Yet many of the newer activists in her party despise her, would she get past them?

marno21

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Electoral college my friend, electoral college.

These sorts of numbers are useless if you don't know what the state breakdown is.

That's why the Bloomberg one posted a few days back is more accurate, it looks at a state by state view.

Electoral college indeed. Trumps approval rating is falling, the economy is slowing down, the effects of the trade war are getting worse in rural areas, his behaviour is getting worse and worse and turning off moderates

If Biden is the candidate he won’t ignore the Midwest and the rust belt like Hillary did. Trump won the key states (MI/PA/WI) by a combined total of 80k votes. It’s not a landslide like some people suggest it was

Jesus effing Christ

Danzy wrote: »

Yet many of the newer activists in her party despise her, would she get past them?

Not just you but this is a constant theme throughout this thread, a while back someone was talking about people on the the left wanting their candidate "as pure as driven snow" can you or anyone tell me where you're getting this nonsense from.
If its referring to Warren Sanders supporters how are managing to put them in this very specific grouping.
If either Sanders or Warren were to take corporate donations their campaigns would be over.
Neither of them would even have a campaign if it wasn't for the their past work and policy positions.
Economic issues are behind the support for progressive candidates

peddlelies

Florida might be a tough one to win for the Dem's in 2020, according to this poll Ron DeSantis is hugely popular.

Poll itself : https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideGovernorPollwCross.pdf

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/11/04/florida-huge-majority-of-hispanics-support-desantis-mandatory-e-verify/

"A new poll by the University of North Florida finds that 82 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida approve of the job DeSantis is doing as governor, along with 72 percent of all Florida voters. Only eight percent of Hispanics said they disapproved of DeSantis...

DeSantis is so popular with Floridians that even a majority, 56 percent, of Democrats approve of him. Likewise, 65 percent of voters between 18 and 24-years-old approve of DeSantis, as well as 73 percent of non-college educated voters."

Quin_Dub

peddlelies wrote: »

Florida might be a tough one to win for the Dem's in 2020, according to this poll Ron DeSantis is hugely popular.

Poll itself : https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideGovernorPollwCross.pdf

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/11/04/florida-huge-majority-of-hispanics-support-desantis-mandatory-e-verify/

"A new poll by the University of North Florida finds that 82 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida approve of the job DeSantis is doing as governor, along with 72 percent of all Florida voters. Only eight percent of Hispanics said they disapproved of DeSantis...

DeSantis is so popular with Floridians that even a majority, 56 percent, of Democrats approve of him. Likewise, 65 percent of voters between 18 and 24-years-old approve of DeSantis, as well as 73 percent of non-college educated voters."

A small thing - I happened to be in Florida in the days leading up to the hurricane in early September and caught a few of his press conferences on local news stations talking about the emergency plans etc.

He came across as very organised and well briefed - deferred to the experts when it was right to etc.

Nothing that you wouldn't hope and expect from a Snr Government official , but he still came across very well.

If that's the kind of thing that the "person in the street" is seeing then him being broadly popular isn't surprising.

FionnK86

Just got an email from BOI regarding some 50-30-20 rule popularised by Elizabeth Warren.

That’ll wind up the Trump supporters!

Manic Moran

Seems to have been a gopd day for the Democrats in Kentucky and Virginia. MS staying red doesn’t seem a surprise. I was surprised to note that CNN mentioned that VA’s districts are drawn to favor Democrats, and now they will remain that way for the 2020 cycle.

Overheal

Won a governorship in Kentucky, where Trump carried by 30 points in 2016. I’d like to hope that translates to a strong senate challenge against McConnel.