US Presidential Election 2020

letowski

letowski wrote: »

There is an article from the Irish Times detailing the time each state was called Irish time in 2016:

Midnight
Donald Trump – Indiana (11) and Kentucky (8).
Hillary Clinton – Vermont (3).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 19. Clinton - 3.

0.30am
Donald Trump – West Virginia (5).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 24. Clinton - 3.

1am
Donald Trump - Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7) and Tennessee (11).
Hillary Clinton – Illinois (20), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), New Jersey (14) and the District of Columbia (3).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 68. Trump - 48.

1.30am
Donald Trump - South Carolina (9) and Alabama (9).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 68. Trump - 66.

2am
Donald Trump - Kansas (6), Wyoming (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3) and South Dakota (3).
Hillary Clinton – New York (29).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 97. Trump - 86.

2.15am
Donald Trump - Texas (38) and Arkansas (6).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 130. Clinton - 97.

2.40am
Donald Trump - Louisiana (8).
Hillary Clinton – Connecticut (7).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 138. Clinton - 104.

3am
Donald Trump - Montana (3).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 141. Clinton - 104.

3.15am
Donald Trump - Missouri (10).
Hillary Clinton – New Mexico (5).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 151. Clinton - 109.

3.30am
Donald Trump - Ohio (18).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 169. Clinton - 109.

3.40am
Hillary Clinton - Virginia (13)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 169. Clinton - 122.

3.50am
Hillary Clinton - Colorado (9).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 169. Clinton - 131.

4am
Donald Trump - Idaho (4).
Hillary Clinton - California (55) and Hawaii (4).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 190. Trump - 173.

4.10am
Donald Trump - North Carolina (15).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 190. Trump - 188.

4.15am
Hillary Clinton - Oregon (7)
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 197. Trump - 188.

4.30am
Donald Trump - Florida (29)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 217. Clinton - 197.

4.40am
Hillary Clinton - Washington State (12).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 217. Clinton - 209.

4.50am
Donald Trump - Georgia (16).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 233. Clinton - 209.

5.10am
Donald Trump - Iowa (6).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 239. Clinton - 209.

5.25am
Hillary Clinton - Nevada (6).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 238. Clinton - 215.

6.10am
Donald Trump - Utah (6)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 244. Clinton - 215

6.40am
Donald Trump - Alaska (3)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 247. Clinton - 215

7.30am
Donald Trump - Pennsylvania (20) Maine (1)
Hillary Clinton - Maine (3)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 269. Clinton 218

7.45am
Donald Trump - Wisconsin (10)
Total electorial votes: Trump - 279. Clinton 218

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/state-by-state-as-the-us-presidential-election-is-called-1.2860254

--

Folks, I don't see the upper midwest states (except Iowa/Ohio) being called before we go into work on the 4th of November. It's possible Biden (or Trump) could have exceeded 270 before then though. I suppose we will have a good idea how the election is going as results like Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Arizona should be in during the night.

Some of those late calls were overly-cautious though. I remember the night well as I was away on a little trip and it was clear before 4am that Trump had it.

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

Remember passing out around 3, he was starting to win some unusual states, figured it was a fluke - nope, what a morning.

The news did a ****ing awful job that night. As Clinton won a couple of early states but by way smaller margins than expected it was all just "Yup, this is what we expected" rather than "Oh ****, those apparent 3 point leads might not be too sturdy".

Overheal

Because they were afraid to call Ohio and places.

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

Because they were afraid to call Ohio and places.

Yeah as it went on they were afraid but at the start there should have been alarm bells way before they copped what was happening. "Oh he's 5 points up but only 24% of precincts reporting" but with no insight into whether that would be expected or not from the precincts that were reporting.
Hillary won Maine 48-45 last time. That it was in any way close from the start was what set me off (I was drunk so some details of the night come and go :L ) worrying. If Biden has a nice 10 point lead in Maine from the start then it should be fairly comfortable elsewhere. I think New Hampshire was too close to call all night as well, he needs to win by 6+ there.

Overheal

Giuliani tried to shop the laptop story to Fox Business. It doesn't go well for Giuliani. The woman interviewing is honestly like "If that's the case it sounds awful, yeah, I believe you - BUT, where's the evidence, couldn't someone else have hacked it if you did, and planted 'evidence,' can't someone forge a signature? How do we verify it's unadulterated content, etc ' also pointing out that if its been tossed around for a year, that's a lot of time to play doctor with it.

From there it devolved into Rudy nearly storming off set, because she pointed out his position parallels Christopher Steele, but not before trying to waffle and make it seem increasingly salacious, alleging photos of underage girls on there and then alleging that the FBI hasn't indicted anybody for such alleged photos, because the Bidens are untouchables. (Is "underage photos" code for "photos of his children? old high school yearbook photos?" It just feels like a statement from him that is games with the truth)

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/our-interview-is-now-over-giuliani-erupts-on-foxs-kennedy-over-biden-shouts-at-her-for-outrageous-defamation/

Video at the linky link.

Manic Moran

briany wrote: »

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

According to this, most states offer some form of early in-person voting. You'd think most people in those states who intend to vote in person wouldn't bother waiting until election day itself as that time might be inconvenient and that election day wouldn't be a particularly standout day in terms of numbers of people waiting to cast their ballots.

The reason I bring it up is because I've heard about this idea of a late surge in pro-Trump ballots, but as they're more likely to vote in-person, they're also as free to avail of early voting (in applicable states) as anyone else. Late surge implies to me that they would cast their ballots on election day, but again if they can vote early in person, I don't see why they wouldn't be doing that as much as those voting for Biden.

I'm in one of those states, and I know a number of people who have voted early. I'm a bit of a traditionalist, I go on voting day, to avail of any last minute information, and to my local voting location. There are currently 47 early voting locations in my county, on voting day there are over 600 sites. I'm happy enough to just go around the block on the day and see no reason to vote early. I think the chances of my getting incapacitated in the next week are slim.

I don't know how respective such a statement is of 'lean Biden' vs 'lean Trump', but I prefer to not early vote as a result.

Itssoeasy wrote: »

NBC has moved Texas to a toss up for the presidential election. I mean that’s something given than since the mid 1960s when the flipping of states from the democrats winning states in the south to republicans winning them most of the time since then with a few exceptions and since 1980 it’s not even been close even if Clinton got close in 1992 and 1996. The state of Texas which to me is GOP heartland if not going to flip blue is close enough that a national network is confident enough to call it a toss up state is nuts.

Texas last voted blue in a Presidential election in 1976, but at the State level has been a bit more flexible. The last Democrat Governor ended her term in 1995. Of course, California's last Republican governor ended his term in 2011, so it's relative. Texas' legislature was Democrat in 2002.

With the polarization of the parties, Texas has been more recently a quite solid red, but it wasn't all that long ago that Democrats held sway here. A flip isn't as magical as you might think.

EltonJohn69

Overheal wrote: »

Giuliani tried to shop the laptop story to Fox Business. It doesn't go well for Giuliani. The woman interviewing is honestly like "If that's the case it sounds awful, yeah, I believe you - BUT, where's the evidence, couldn't someone else have hacked it if you did, and planted 'evidence,' can't someone forge a signature? How do we verify it's unadulterated content, etc ' also pointing out that if its been tossed around for a year, that's a lot of time to play doctor with it.

From there it devolved into Rudy nearly storming off set, because she pointed out his position parallels Christopher Steele, but not before trying to waffle and make it seem increasingly salacious, alleging photos of underage girls on there and then alleging that the FBI hasn't indicted anybody for such alleged photos, because the Bidens are untouchables. (Is "underage photos" code for "photos of his children? old high school yearbook photos?" It just feels like a statement from him that is games with the truth)

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/our-interview-is-now-over-giuliani-erupts-on-foxs-kennedy-over-biden-shouts-at-her-for-outrageous-defamation/

Video at the linky link.

He sounds so crazy going on about dead Chinese spy masters.....

letowski

dark crystal wrote: »

So from midnight the results start rolling in in Ireland? That's like 6/7 pm US time?

When do polling centres close over there??

Usually around 7pm or 8pm. Indiana and Kentucky close at around 6pm, hence why they are usually one of the earliest states called.

Itssoeasy

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

He sounds so crazy going on about dead Chinese spy masters.....

I didn’t know the former mayor of New York was a red hot chilli peppers fan. Well psychic Chinese spy’s but for Guiliani it’s close enough.

But wasn’t the reason why the polls were kind of off is because of the late breaking undecided voters going to trump ?

The democrats could become like the buffalo bills if the lose twice in a row in close games.

Igotadose

VinLieger wrote: »

Ohhh that poster doesnt care about the EC they believe that the GOP are gonna steal the election via the Supreme Court and dont care about the downfall of democracy and rule of law in the US cus "owning the libs" or something equally as idiotic

ANyone showing up with "Trumps got it bagged!" or "Biden by a mile" gets the question. The majority don't reply, but at least 2 "Trump's going to win" have put up their responses. Hope springs eternal that people will be a bit reflective, take a look and come up with their opinions driven by their intellects and not 'their guts.'

Hope, I know, is fleeting.

duploelabs

Overheal wrote: »

Giuliani tried to shop the laptop story to Fox Business. It doesn't go well for Giuliani. The woman interviewing is honestly like "If that's the case it sounds awful, yeah, I believe you - BUT, where's the evidence, couldn't someone else have hacked it if you did, and planted 'evidence,' can't someone forge a signature? How do we verify it's unadulterated content, etc ' also pointing out that if its been tossed around for a year, that's a lot of time to play doctor with it.

From there it devolved into Rudy nearly storming off set, because she pointed out his position parallels Christopher Steele, but not before trying to waffle and make it seem increasingly salacious, alleging photos of underage girls on there and then alleging that the FBI hasn't indicted anybody for such alleged photos, because the Bidens are untouchables. (Is "underage photos" code for "photos of his children? old high school yearbook photos?" It just feels like a statement from him that is games with the truth)

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/our-interview-is-now-over-giuliani-erupts-on-foxs-kennedy-over-biden-shouts-at-her-for-outrageous-defamation/

Video at the linky link.

With advisors like that, is it any wonder the trump administration is in such dire straights?
It truly is a sight to behold how far they have fallen when a fox news anchor can barely surpress her laughter when Giuliani trots out that horsesh!t

MJohnston

Good NYT article where they interviewed election officials in every state to get a sense of when they might be able to declare a result.

I'll give the highlights:

Arizona (Lean D) — Officials are not predicting the share of ballots that will be reported by Wednesday. A new law allows officials to count mail votes starting two weeks before the election, so the first votes, typically reported at 10 p.m. Eastern, are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden.

Florida (Tossup) — All early voting and previously tabulated mail ballots, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden, should be reported by 8:30 p.m. Eastern. Officials did not make a projection for the timing of full unofficial results, but they were allowed to process early-arriving mail ballots starting weeks before the election.

Georgia (Tossup) — Officials did not provide an estimate but said that because of the large volume of mail ballots expected, it could take a couple of days for all of them to be scanned and counted.

Iowa (Tossup) — Officials said they are confident they will have unofficial results "in a timely fashion like we do for every election."

Michigan (Lean D) — Officials have said that full unofficial results could take until Nov. 6. Processing of ballots does not begin until Election Day, or the day before the election in some jurisdictions. If there are a significant number of mail ballots outstanding at the end of election night, the reported totals could be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump.

Minnesota (Lean D) — Officials expect to count and report close to 100 percent of votes cast on or before Election Day by noon Wednesday. Outstanding mail ballots will be reported on the secretary of state's website.

North Carolina (Tossup) — Early votes and processed mail ballots, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden, will be reported around 7:30 p.m. Election day results, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump, will be reported between 8:30 p.m. and 1 a.m. Officials estimate that upward of 98 percent of ballots cast will be reported on election night.

Ohio (Tossup) — Ballots cast before Election Day will be reported by 8 p.m., and they are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden. They will be followed by those cast in-person or arriving on Election Day. After election night, no more results will be released until final certification, which must be completed by Nov. 28. No predictions were provided for the share of results reported by Wednesday.

Pennsylvania (Lean D) — Secretary of the Commonwealth Kathy Boockvar has said that she expects “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday, Nov. 6. Officials cannot begin to process mail ballots until Election Day, and if there are a significant number of mail ballots outstanding at the end of the night, the reported totals could be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump.

Wisconsin (Lean D) — Gov. Tony Evers has said he expects to know the results on election night, or by the day after at the latest. The elections director in Milwaukee County, which officials say has the potential to be the latest to report, said that results could take until between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. Wednesday.

So putting this together with 538's interactive forecasting tool we can predict some election night bellweathers:

* If Biden is clear ahead in FL, NC, or OH, that's probably the end of the road for Trump.
* If Biden is clear ahead in AZ, MN, or WI, that's bad for Trump but still recoverable.
* GA, MI, PA are unlikely to be predictable until late Wednesday at the earliest unless it's a landslide.

MJohnston

This is one solid lead for Biden in WI:

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1321392639737057280

enno99

Amazing turnouts for Trump every place he goes 1000s turn up
Two and three times a day


Biden Harris nobody bothers ?
Even Obama couldnt pull more than a 100 people

Car rallys not part of trump campaign 35000 and 75000 cars
miles of trump supporters

Amazing to watch the likes of ABC CNN etc ignore it

L1011

enno99 wrote: »

Amazing turnouts for Trump every place he goes 1000s turn up
Two and three times a day


Biden Harris nobody bothers ?
Even Obama couldnt pull more than a 100 people

Car rallys not part of trump campaign 35000 and 75000 cars
miles of trump supporters

Amazing to watch the likes of ABC CNN etc ignore it

His rallies are covered extensively.

Biden/Harris are not looking to hold multi-thousand attendee rallies in the middle of a pandemic.

enno99

L1011 wrote: »

His rallies are covered extensively.

Biden/Harris are not looking to hold multi-thousand attendee rallies in the middle of a pandemic.

Maybe so

Why waste so much money on logistics then could just do online events

Oh wait nobody is watching them either

TomOnBoard

enno99 wrote: »

Amazing turnouts for Trump every place he goes 1000s turn up
Two and three times a day


.....

Amazing to watch the likes of ABC CNN etc ignore it

What's truly amaaaaazing is a campaign that arranges a rally in Omaha that has thousands of people bussed in from car-parks miles away, and then can't even get them returned to their cars for HOURS, leaving them (mostly maskless) in freezing weather, to fend for themselves, in the midst of a raging pandemic! Now, THAT'S amazing!

everlast75

enno99 wrote: »

Amazing turnouts for Trump every place he goes 1000s turn up
Two and three times a day


Biden Harris nobody bothers ?
Even Obama couldnt pull more than a 100 people

Car rallys not part of trump campaign 35000 and 75000 cars
miles of trump supporters

Amazing to watch the likes of ABC CNN etc ignore it

Maybe you would like to google what happened last night for a Trump rally in Nebraska.

Or maybe look at what headlines are being created in the wake of Trump's rallies..

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1321232017057566720?s=19

The usual sob story by Trump supporters.

Trump gets bigger numbers.

The media are biased.

It's like 2016 all over again.

Ffs, change the ****ing record.

Roanmore

Rallies aren't going to make people vote for you, if you attend you're going to vote for that person anyway. It may turn you off from voting for that person, see about post on people being stranded but the main reason is to get your speech out in the media, the soundbite, the campaign phrase, etc.
Look at Obama, no crowds but he is getting under Trump's skin, making him lash out on Twitter.
I can guarantee you that no undecided voter looked at Trump dad dancing to Village People and said "I really like his moves, I'm going to vote for him".

Midlife

Lots of rallies but no economic plan, health care plan or covid plan published before the election.

Vote for me because I have big rallies in the middle of a pandemic.

What kind of moron would buy that.

MJohnston

enno99 wrote: »

Amazing turnouts for Trump every place he goes 1000s turn up
Two and three times a day


Biden Harris nobody bothers ?
Even Obama couldnt pull more than a 100 people

Car rallys not part of trump campaign 35000 and 75000 cars
miles of trump supporters

Amazing to watch the likes of ABC CNN etc ignore it

Let's put aside the staggering idiocy of holding maskless, close-contact rallies during a pandemic which is by far and away the biggest issue on US voters minds. Let's put aside that the Biden campaign actively wants people to stay away from his events.

Trump's rallies can sometimes draw around 10-20k attendees. In 2016, San Francisco had 37,688 people vote for Trump. He could hold a rally there, and it would look absolutely packed. Same in LA or Sacramento. But you'd have to be a truly brainless lump of minerals to think that this indicates in any way that Trump has a chance of winning California.

I get the feeling that it's worth stating this plainly: rally sizes are not an indicator of anything (beyond the stupidity and callousness of anyone organising one during a pandemic).

Timberrrrrrrr

enno99 wrote: »

Amazing turnouts for Trump every place he goes 1000s turn up
Two and three times a day


Biden Harris nobody bothers ?
Even Obama couldnt pull more than a 100 people

Car rallys not part of trump campaign 35000 and 75000 cars
miles of trump supporters

Amazing to watch the likes of ABC CNN etc ignore it

You seem to think that the Dems are looking for big crowds, they aren't. Its invite only and streamed so people can watch from the safety of their homes.

Meanwhile Trump holds mass rallies full of maskless idiots just so he can have his ego stroked by people who were always going to vote for him.

Overheal

MJohnston wrote: »

This is one solid lead for Biden in WI:

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1321392639737057280

2 unsurprising results. Michigan was bailed out by the Obama administration which saved the auto industry from Major restructuring. Wisconsin was burned by state GOP when the electorate voted in a Democrat governor in 2018. The Republicans used the lame duck session to strip powers away from the Governor that they themselves enjoyed. Kicker: the Republican controlled/appointed Supreme Court refused to hear the appeal from Democrats that the actions may have violated the law

https://apnews.com/article/lawsuits-wisconsin-courts-laws-184e2b029099883dc9d37339af43edd7

WaPo still reports the lead in Michigan as “narrow.” They’re clearly disinterested in being optimistic.

enno99

im sure it wont upset them to much a little hicup in the transport

Want the links of trump supporters camping out overnight to attend rallys

enno99

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

You seem to think that the Dems are looking for big crowds, they aren't. Its invite only and streamed so people can watch from the safety of their homes.

Meanwhile Trump holds mass rallies full of maskless idiots just so he can have his ego stroked by people who were always going to vote for him.

Any stats on how many watched from home

i have seen 900000 +on one live broadcast alone of Trump rally attended by 1000s of supporters

Timberrrrrrrr

enno99 wrote: »

Any stats on how many watched from home

i have seen 900000 +on one live broadcast alone of Trump rally attended by 1000s of supporters

That doesn't equate to Trump supporters though, I have watched them online for the comedy until he just started repeating the same lines over and over. Clicks do not equal votes.

Overheal

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

That doesn't equate to Trump supporters though, I have watched them online for the comedy until he just started repeating the same lines over and over. Clicks do not equal votes.

They don’t even equal real people.

droidus

MJohnston wrote: »

This is one solid lead for Biden in WI:

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1321392639737057280

I think they're both locked in by now. Dems are getting a bit nervous over the margin in PA though.

McFly85

All of this skewed nonsense is just in preparation for his attack on the “corrupt” voting system when he loses. He will whip up his supporters into a frenzy about how the election was stolen.

Hopefully most realise he’s a vile man who cares so little for democracy he would happily trample over it to keep himself in power.

Dillonb3

droidus wrote: »

I think they're both locked in by now. Dems are getting a bit nervous over the margin in PA though.

Theres supposedly a bit of a surge in GOP early voters in Florida.