US Presidential Election 2020

everlast75

An idea of where the GOP deem important

https://twitter.com/WakeUp2Politics/status/1321166602465890307?s=19

Rjd2

Overheal wrote: »

Speaking of mandates, Trump has missed his shot to have an economic mandate from the voters. Same with a healthcare plan I might add.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/522820-kudlow-doesnt-expect-trump-to-release-detailed-economic-plan-before-election?fbclid=IwAR01ttFl9UY0ZpjbIIsV_hmIP7Vy2DWLWoOoCV0nYmvEax16WyRmzMRgjI8

Kudlow announced Trump's economic plan will not be released before the election.

If trump loses their will be a million takes about why he did and some will be bull****, but he surrounding himself by Zombie Reganism libertarian "muh balanced budget" hacks is very high up their.

On Florida, Trump is punting that its somewhat in the bag and moving to the rust belt. Its a very high risk move, but when cash strapped you have to do such things, we shall soon enough if it worked.

everlast75

Re - the question of when we will know the result, here is a very handy tweet i found which explains it all quite well..


https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1321108695372177408?s=09

Water John

Foxtrol wrote: »

Arizona and Florida are funny ones, they have great mail voting and pre election counting due to their older population and how that group trended to vote for the GOP for years.

It will be interesting if that group turns for a few cycles whether mail voting will be made more difficult in those states also.

Good art here on AZ and how it's changing:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/maricopa-county-phoenix-donald-trump-2020

EltonJohn69

Where did all the money go ?

briany

Overheal wrote: »

Speaking of mandates, Trump has missed his shot to have an economic mandate from the voters. Same with a healthcare plan I might add.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/522820-kudlow-doesnt-expect-trump-to-release-detailed-economic-plan-before-election?fbclid=IwAR01ttFl9UY0ZpjbIIsV_hmIP7Vy2DWLWoOoCV0nYmvEax16WyRmzMRgjI8

Kudlow announced Trump's economic plan will not be released before the election.

What is the reasoning behind that, I wonder? Do Trump and his staff think that's the smarter electoral play, were they genuinely so ignorant/lazy not to bother drafting up a concrete document, or do they just have nothing to offer?

You have to think America can do better than a guy who says he has the best plans, and everything will be better, but not for a couple of weeks, and those couple of weeks are, quite conveniently, perched on a floating timeline.

Much like the Covid vaccine Trump's been promising, it's all been a couple of weeks away for months.

Overheal

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Where did all the money go ?

"I'm under audit?"

or

'Ah well, you know, it's all tied up in property investments, hedge funds, stocks, offshore rainy day accounts in countries that don't extradite. You know, business stuff.'

briany wrote: »

What is the reasoning behind that, I wonder? Do Trump and his staff think that's the smarter electoral play, were they genuinely so ignorant/lazy not to bother drafting up a concrete document, or do they just have nothing to offer?

You have to think America can do better than a guy who says he has the best plans, and everything will be better, but not for a couple of weeks, and those couple of weeks are, quite conveniently, perched on a floating timeline.

Much like the Covid vaccine Trump's been promising, it's all been a couple of weeks away for months.

It's the more apt approach if you're an autocrat. The GOP platform is this year, essentially, to back up Trump. With no mandates from voters and the only mandate from the GOP being we will do what Trump wants, it's - it's a pure reflection of what type of governing they plan to do. And have done.

An Ciarraioch

We have now reached the point where 50% of the 2016 electorate have already voted - likely to reach 70% before Election Day itself?

EltonJohn69

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We have now reached the point where 50% of the 2016 electorate have already voted - likely to reach 70% before Election Day itself?

Trump will have any unfavourable ballots shredded.

Rjd2

briany wrote: »

What is the reasoning behind that, I wonder? Do Trump and his staff think that's the smarter electoral play, were they genuinely so ignorant/lazy not to bother drafting up a concrete document, or do they just have nothing to offer?

Have you never heard of Zombie Reganism?

Trump has surrounded himself with people who are disciples of it.

That's your answer.

Overheal

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Trump will have any unfavourable ballots shredded.

Please don't even joke

Rjd2

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Where did all the money go ?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/20/how-the-trump-campaign-lost-its-cash-advantage/

An article breaking it down.

ther questionable expenditures by Trump and the RNC that are included in campaign finance disclosures:

— Nearly $100,000 spent on copies of Donald Trump Jr.’s book “Triggered,” which helped propel it to the top of the New York Times bestsellers list.

— Over $7.4 million spent at Trump-branded properties since 2017.

— At least $35.2 million spent on Trump merchandise.

— $38.7 million in legal and “compliance” fees. In addition to tapping the RNC and his campaign to pay legal costs during his impeachment proceedings, Trump has also relied on his political operation to cover legal costs for some aides.

— At least $14.1 million spent on the Republican National Convention. The event was supposed to have been held in Charlotte, North Carolina, but Trump relocated it to Jacksonville, Florida, after a dispute with North Carolina’s Democratic governor over coronavirus safety measures. The Florida event was ultimately cancelled, as well, with a mostly online convention taking its place.

— $912,000 spent on ads that ran on the personal Facebook pages of Parscale and Trump spokesperson Katrina Pierson.

— A $250,000 ad run during Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, which came after Trump was booed by spectators when he attended Game 5.

— At least $218,000 for Trump surrogates to travel aboard private jets provided by campaign donors.

— $1.6 million on TV ads in the Washington, D.C., media market, an overwhelmingly Democratic area where Trump has little chance of winning but where he is a regular TV watcher.

Instead of giving more to Trump, some supporters are exploring their options.

Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam, recently donated $75 million to Preserve America, a new pro-Trump super political action committee that is not controlled by Trump World political operatives.

One of the reasons the group was founded in August is because there is deep distrust among some GOP donors that the existing pro-Trump organizations would spend the money wisely, according to a Republican strategist with direct knowledge of the matter. The strategist spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions with donors.

mm_surf

Overheal wrote: »

Please don't even joke

For early in-person voters, ballots are already "in the machines", so shennanigans cant be done.

In MO, anyway. Presume in person is tge sane across all states. Mail-ins may be handled differently due to state legislation.

M.

Water John

They've passed 50% of the total who voted in 2016 already, over 69M.

Itssoeasy

NBC has moved Texas to a toss up for the presidential election. I mean that’s something given than since the mid 1960s when the flipping of states from the democrats winning states in the south to republicans winning them most of the time since then with a few exceptions and since 1980 it’s not even been close even if Clinton got close in 1992 and 1996. The state of Texas which to me is GOP heartland if not going to flip blue is close enough that a national network is confident enough to call it a toss up state is nuts.

briany

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

According to this, most states offer some form of early in-person voting. You'd think most people in those states who intend to vote in person wouldn't bother waiting until election day itself as that time might be inconvenient and that election day wouldn't be a particularly standout day in terms of numbers of people waiting to cast their ballots.

The reason I bring it up is because I've heard about this idea of a late surge in pro-Trump ballots, but as they're more likely to vote in-person, they're also as free to avail of early voting (in applicable states) as anyone else. Late surge implies to me that they would cast their ballots on election day, but again if they can vote early in person, I don't see why they wouldn't be doing that as much as those voting for Biden.

Overheal

The thing is, of the 48.5% of registered Democrats and ~28% of registered Republicans whom have already voted, a significant number of those Republicans will be RVAT or Lincoln Project voters and the Republican groups that have endorsed Biden.

So Texas flipping blue isn't that crazy, Texas isn't just GOP heartland it's Neocon heartland, and they and Trump do not get along superbly well when the chips are down.

TomOnBoard

droidus wrote: »

Florida should be reporting between 1-2am. If Biden wins it then it's all over.

While you may be correct that Biden may win FL, I don't believe that FL will have anything like a result by 1-2 AM Irish time. At that point, early in-person votes as well as many maIl-in votes may have been counted, but the in-person votes on the day will not. If you remember 2016, Miami-Dade and Broward counties were waaaay late in reporting. I'd expect Biden will be well ahead at @ 1-2 AM Irish time, but the ongoing counts will increasingly favour Trump IMO. If Trump is doing better than expected at 1-2 AM, its gonna be squeaky bum time for the Biden camp.

Exit polls and network pundit projections are different animals and they may well call it differently, but those wont be results.

Edit: other 'tossup' states are going to be equally uncertain at 1-2 AM Irish time:

IOWA is an interesting one in that they will count mail-in votes received up to Nov 9, so that certainly can't be called on the night.
North Carolina allows ballots arriving up to Nov 12, and OHIO allows up to Nov 13 to be counted, so depending on how late voters have left it, and on how much DeJoy has broken the USPS system, some or many ballots will still be in play for more than a week after the election.
Georgia is also going to take days to report due to the level of absentee ballots needing counting.

These are just some examples in some of the 'tossup' states. Siimilar caveats can be applied to those states considered to be lean Dem or lean Rep.

So, on balance, I foresee a veeeerrry long haul post-election until we have a complete result. And that's not even considering legal shenannigans that may ensue.... Just get yer sleep while ya can, and load up on the beer and popcorn!! Thank God we'll have something to occupy us in Level 5 Lockdown!!!

Water John

It will be very interesting how the voting in each county unfolds in diff states. The lady in charge of one of those counties you name has retired. It's spotting the trends compared to 2016 and knowing the variables that particularly apply in each case.

Would a person be better off giving the first few hours a miss and tuning in around 2 am Irish time?

TomOnBoard

Water John wrote: »

It will be very interesting how the voting in each county unfolds in diff states. The lady in charge of one of those counties you name has retired. It's spotting the trends compared to 2016 and knowing the variables that particularly apply in each case.

Would a person be better off giving the first few hours a miss and tuning in around 2 am Irish time?

I'd say it'll be one of the most unusual counts we'll ever see in US elections. So, I've booked the big TV for the entire duration. I've been getting Her Indoors to get used to watching her soaps on a 8 inch tablet for weeks now in anticipation. I reckon she'll be ready by Nov 3... ;-)

Timberrrrrrrr

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I'd say it'll be one of the most unusual counts we'll ever see in US elections. So, I've booked the big TV for the entire duration. I've been getting Her Indoors to get used to watching her soaps on a 8 inch tablet for weeks now in anticipation. I reckon she'll be ready by Nov 3... ;-)

My plan

Home from work by 3, have something to eat and sleep from 5 till 9ish. Get up, decide what take away I want, crack open a bottle of red and settle down for the circus to start.

Have booked the following day off so will be a late one for me.

letowski

There is an article from the Irish Times detailing the time each state was called Irish time in 2016:

Midnight
Donald Trump – Indiana (11) and Kentucky (8).
Hillary Clinton – Vermont (3).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 19. Clinton - 3.

0.30am
Donald Trump – West Virginia (5).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 24. Clinton - 3.

1am
Donald Trump - Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7) and Tennessee (11).
Hillary Clinton – Illinois (20), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), New Jersey (14) and the District of Columbia (3).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 68. Trump - 48.

1.30am
Donald Trump - South Carolina (9) and Alabama (9).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 68. Trump - 66.

2am
Donald Trump - Kansas (6), Wyoming (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3) and South Dakota (3).
Hillary Clinton – New York (29).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 97. Trump - 86.

2.15am
Donald Trump - Texas (38) and Arkansas (6).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 130. Clinton - 97.

2.40am
Donald Trump - Louisiana (8).
Hillary Clinton – Connecticut (7).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 138. Clinton - 104.

3am
Donald Trump - Montana (3).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 141. Clinton - 104.

3.15am
Donald Trump - Missouri (10).
Hillary Clinton – New Mexico (5).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 151. Clinton - 109.

3.30am
Donald Trump - Ohio (18).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 169. Clinton - 109.

3.40am
Hillary Clinton - Virginia (13)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 169. Clinton - 122.

3.50am
Hillary Clinton - Colorado (9).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 169. Clinton - 131.

4am
Donald Trump - Idaho (4).
Hillary Clinton - California (55) and Hawaii (4).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 190. Trump - 173.

4.10am
Donald Trump - North Carolina (15).
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 190. Trump - 188.

4.15am
Hillary Clinton - Oregon (7)
Total electoral votes: Clinton - 197. Trump - 188.

4.30am
Donald Trump - Florida (29)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 217. Clinton - 197.

4.40am
Hillary Clinton - Washington State (12).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 217. Clinton - 209.

4.50am
Donald Trump - Georgia (16).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 233. Clinton - 209.

5.10am
Donald Trump - Iowa (6).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 239. Clinton - 209.

5.25am
Hillary Clinton - Nevada (6).
Total electoral votes: Trump - 238. Clinton - 215.

6.10am
Donald Trump - Utah (6)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 244. Clinton - 215

6.40am
Donald Trump - Alaska (3)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 247. Clinton - 215

7.30am
Donald Trump - Pennsylvania (20) Maine (1)
Hillary Clinton - Maine (3)
Total electoral votes: Trump - 269. Clinton 218

7.45am
Donald Trump - Wisconsin (10)
Total electorial votes: Trump - 279. Clinton 218

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/state-by-state-as-the-us-presidential-election-is-called-1.2860254

--

Folks, I don't see the upper midwest states (except Iowa/Ohio) being called before we go into work on the 4th of November. It's possible Biden (or Trump) could have exceeded 270 before then though. I suppose we will have a good idea how the election is going as results like Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Arizona should be in during the night.

BonnieSituation

briany wrote: »

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

According to this, most states offer some form of early in-person voting. You'd think most people in those states who intend to vote in person wouldn't bother waiting until election day itself as that time might be inconvenient and that election day wouldn't be a particularly standout day in terms of numbers of people waiting to cast their ballots.

The reason I bring it up is because I've heard about this idea of a late surge in pro-Trump ballots, but as they're more likely to vote in-person, they're also as free to avail of early voting (in applicable states) as anyone else. Late surge implies to me that they would cast their ballots on election day, but again if they can vote early in person, I don't see why they wouldn't be doing that as much as those voting for Biden.

The other thing to consider is that if it appears that Biden is likely to win, a lot of GOPers might sit this one out. The numbers from early- and mail-in ballots as they are surging and announced may pop a pin in any enthusiasm that may be remaining and John Q Christgun might just stay at home.

TomOnBoard

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/20/how-the-trump-campaign-lost-its-cash-advantage/

An article breaking it down.

Parscale is heading for some serious fines and/or jail time! He and the Trump family and hangers-on absolutely milked that campaign and when the Federal Elections Commission and 2021 DOJ is finished with them, they're gonna be getting used to prison chow!

Parscale's best hope is to cut a deal ASAP with someone/anyone in law enforcement and get his story out there quickly!

BonnieSituation

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

My plan

Home from work by 3, have something to eat and sleep from 5 till 9ish. Get up, decide what take away I want, crack open a bottle of red and settle down for the circus to start.

Have booked the following day off so will be a late one for me.

That sounds like a great way to do it.

Timberrrrrrrr

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That sounds like a great way to do it.

Someone in work asked why I would do that

My reply.

For me this is like superbowl Sunday, the world Cup final and the mens 100 meter sprint finals at the Olympics all rolled into one.

BonnieSituation

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Someone in work asked why I would do that

My reply.

For me this is like superbowl Sunday, the world Cup final and the mens 100 meter sprint finals at the Olympics all rolled into one.

I'm a political fiend so I have always been up late for US elections.

I'm also a sports fiend.

But a nice easy-run in that you're suggesting for next Tuesday night is not something I've done before outside of a World Cup or Olympics, so I'm definitely onboard!

Timberrrrrrrr

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Someone in work asked why I would do that

My reply.

For me this is like superbowl Sunday, the world Cup final and the mens 100 meter sprint finals at the Olympics all rolled into one.

Pretty much the same for me. A lot are boring viewing but this one won't be.

dark crystal

letowski wrote: »

There is an article from the Irish Times detailing the time each state was called Irish time in 2016:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/state-by-state-as-the-us-presidential-election-is-called-1.2860254

So from midnight the results start rolling in in Ireland? That's like 6/7 pm US time?

When do polling centres close over there??

Overheal

letowski wrote: »

There is an article from the Irish Times detailing the time each state was called Irish time in 2016:

Remember passing out around 3 or 4 - what a morning that was.