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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #6722
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    I initially thought it would not hurt him that much but not as sure now.

    Its not the game changer that some think, but 750 is an easy number to repeat and memorise. Its a bit like 47% with Romney, it was always obvious he was an elitist wealthy republican arsehole but the 47% comment stuck to him, 750 is an easy slogan/quip to hit with him on a constant basis.

    The Biden campaign are already posting ads about it - Listing the average tax bills for a Nurse , Fireman , Construction worker etc. and then comparing that the to the $750.


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    #6723
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,443 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    The Biden campaign are already posting ads about it - Listing the average tax bills for a Nurse , Fireman , Construction worker etc. and then comparing that the to the $750.

    I’ve read the article several times and the one number I can remember is 750 and as RJd2 said it’s a very easy number to remember. It must a godsend for the Biden campaign that’s it’s an easy repeatable number.


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    #6724
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    everlast75 wrote: »
    That's a bit like asking Dougal not to press the red button on the airplane.

    He is under substantial pressure. He could easily be riled up in a debate on a multitude of topics and with no audience to laugh, boo or cheer, any jibes will sound flat on tv.

    Biden isn't hated as Hilary was. He doesn't have the successful businessman image anymore, he can't run on change and draining the swamp, he has been impeached. I'm not going to lie, I would prefer Warren or Swalwell up there taking him to task, but Biden should be able to handle him quite well.

    Unfortunately there will be a small audience.


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    #6725
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Unfortunately there will be a small audience.

    Fair enough - minimal audience then. Small enough not to have mob mentality, plus they will be spaced 2 meters apart.

    In any event, a different environment to 2016.


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    #6726
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,518 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    briany wrote: »
    Trump supporters don't care about Trump avoiding taxes. I'd say a lot of his supporters are 'F the fed' types, who say that even as they're going down to cash their stimulus checks.

    It's not about them. Their votes are home and hosed.
    It's about the swing voters and motivating enough Democrat voters to go out and vote and put an end to this.


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    #6727
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Fair enough - minimal audience then. Small enough not to have mob mentality, plus they will be spaced 2 meters apart.

    In any event, a different environment to 2016.

    Absolutely. I just would have preferred zero audience.


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    #6728
    Call me Al
    Registered Users Posts: 3,020 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    I think most here accept that there are Trump supporters who are immune to any criticism of their exalted leader. They aren't enough to win an election though.
    But release of this type of information means that Trump cannot now talk with any legitimacy about his business successes, his reputation as a great deal maker, or criticism he makes of US businesses and the way they're structuring themselves to reduce their tax liabilities.
    He will be laughed off the stage if he starts spouting this rubbish again.

    The group that decide this election will be the middle ground. The people in the middle who are undecided. They likely pay their taxes and expect people around them to do so too. Are they really going to be impressed at this type of ritual behaviour from Trump? I don't think enough of them will be.


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    #6729
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,038 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Tell me how wrote: »
    It's not about them. Their votes are home and hosed.
    It's about the swing voters and motivating enough Democrat voters to go out and vote and put an end to this.

    Indeed : it's not the tens of millions of Trumpites that anyone should be concerned with. They would still vote for him if he was charged with murder or armed robbery.

    It's the floating voters and those on the edges of the Republican base that could make all the difference.


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    #6730
    Carfacemandog
    Registered Users Posts: 2,042 ✭✭✭Carfacemandog


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    True,

    But the information coming out is showing that it's less a case of "Pays less taxes by being smart" and more "Pays less taxes because he's just not very good at business"

    I think the latter narrative is far more damaging to him than the former.
    That remibds me of my other half's brother - complains and event rants endlessly about taxes, despite being in his mid 20s and literally having not had a single job in his entire life.


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    #6731
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,632 ✭✭✭eire4


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Indeed : it's not the tens of millions of Trumpites that anyone should be concerned with. They would still vote for him if he was charged with murder or armed robbery.

    It's the floating voters and those on the edges of the Republican base that could make all the difference.

    Well your certainty right about them not caring even if he is responsible for killings. He is on the record in his own voice knowing from the get go how dangerous and how serious a threat to life and health this virus is. Yet he said the opposite in public and deliberately hamstrung the US response to the pandemic. So while it is impossible to say how many of the almost 210,000 (as of today) dead Americans are as a result of him it is fair to say we are talking at least in the tens of thousands.


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    #6732
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,518 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Indeed : it's not the tens of millions of Trumpites that anyone should be concerned with. They would still vote for him if he was charged with murder or armed robbery.

    It's the floating voters and those on the edges of the Republican base that could make all the difference.

    Or, it could simply be down to who is more motivated to vote. I think that is more relevant in the US than anywhere else and the reality is that which ever side wins, in 6 weeks, the winner will be talking about how their philosophy was chosen by the American people when a more accurate statement could be that even the other guys fans weren't buying what he was selling.

    A pretty depressing view of the political discourse in the country to be fair.


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    #6733
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    RCP have started to include the 3rd party candidates in their polling data

    Makes the path to victory even harder for Trump.

    The RCP Average has Biden on 49.3%, Trump on 43% with Jorgensen and Hawkins (Libertarian & Green) on a combined 4.1%.

    That suggests that there are only about 3.5% of votes in the "undecided" bucket

    Or barely over half the current gap between Trump and Biden.


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    #6734
    looksee
    Registered Users Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html

    So who are these people, Jorgensen and Hawkins? Outlier oddballs (you don't need to be an outlier for that) or people who are genuinely trying to upset the system for good? How do they get to be recognised as candidates? How can they get anywhere if they are not even mentioned (normally) in polling?

    Ok, quick google appears to reveal that they are indeed extreme outliers, one right and one left, that the US really isn't ready (and hopefully is unlikely to be) for at the moment. Still it would be healthier than the obsessive 2 person competition they have at present.


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    #6735
    letowski
    Registered Users Posts: 3,109 ✭✭✭letowski


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    RCP have started to include the 3rd party candidates in their polling data

    Makes the path to victory even harder for Trump.

    The RCP Average has Biden on 49.3%, Trump on 43% with Jorgensen and Hawkins (Libertarian & Green) on a combined 4.1%.

    That suggests that there are only about 3.5% of votes in the "undecided" bucket

    Or barely over half the current gap between Trump and Biden.

    Very strong polling for Biden in PA last night too, with Siena/NYT and Wapo/ABC both showing 9 point leads for Biden. Both top pollsters. PA is more important than Florida, if Biden wins there, its then very hard to see him losing WI and MI along with the election itself.


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    #6736
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    looksee wrote: »
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html

    So who are these people, Jorgensen and Hawkins? Outlier oddballs (you don't need to be an outlier for that) or people who are genuinely trying to upset the system for good? How do they get to be recognised as candidates? How can they get anywhere if they are not even mentioned (normally) in polling?

    Ok, quick google appears to reveal that they are indeed extreme outliers, one right and one left, that the US really isn't ready (and hopefully is unlikely to be) for at the moment. Still it would be healthier than the obsessive 2 person competition they have at present.

    Jorgensen is appealing to people who are disgusted by Trump but would never vote Democrat under any circumstances. I'm slightly surprised there's only ~2.8% of them.

    I've mentioned before the full-on Republican I know, who was actually a delegate in the past, but voted Libertarian in 2016 due to falling in to that bracket. He's even decided to vote for Biden this time out - but R all the way down the rest of the ballot.

    He's in Indiana which is likely to go Trump due to Pence regardless. Obama scraped it in 08 but before that its back to the old days for a Democrat win.


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    #6737
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    L1011 wrote: »
    Jorgensen is appealing to people who are disgusted by Trump but would never vote Democrat under any circumstances. I'm slightly surprised there's only ~2.8% of them.

    I've mentioned before the full-on Republican I know, who was actually a delegate in the past, but voted Libertarian in 2016 due to falling in to that bracket. He's even decided to vote for Biden this time out - but R all the way down the rest of the ballot.

    He's in Indiana which is likely to go Trump due to Pence regardless. Obama scraped it in 08 but before that its back to the old days for a Democrat win.

    That phenomenon has Republicans in Texas worried.

    In Texas , their polling machines have always allowed you to essentially "select all" by clicking a single box to bulk vote for a single party - "Straight ticket voting" as it's known

    The GOP went to court to try and remove that option for this Election because they are clearly worried that traditional GOP voters will be voting for Biden this time around and might select the "bulk vote" option thereby hurting them down ballot..

    The Judge rejected the attempt , but they are going to appeal.


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    #6738
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,550 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Outstanding poll out for Biden in Pennsylvania, with a pollster that 538 have rated as A+, showing him up 9 points with likely voters.

    Coincidentally, his price on Betfair has dropped below 1.8 for the first time in over 2 months.


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    #6739
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,347 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    Outstanding poll out for Biden in Pennsylvania, with a pollster that 538 have rated as A+, showing him up 9 points with likely voters.

    Coincidentally, his price on Betfair has dropped below 1.8 for the first time in over 2 months.

    Make that 2 A+ polls in Pennsylvania yesterday showing Biden +9 (ABC/Washington Post and Siena/NYT)

    One of those shows Biden having a 54-45 lead too. Breaking 50 is great to see and there isn’t much scope for undecided voters to mess that lead up like 2016


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    #6740
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,038 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    marno21 wrote: »
    Make that 2 A+ polls in Pennsylvania yesterday showing Biden +9 (ABC/Washington Post and Siena/NYT)

    One of those shows Biden having a 54-45 lead too. Breaking 50 is great to see and there isn’t much scope for undecided voters to mess that lead up like 2016

    The polls are looking great for Biden. Very difficult to see how Trump can turn things around in the swing states. This is nothing like 2016 where he was able to pitch himself as the political outsider and the anti-establishment candidate who was going to bring about a near revolution.


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    #6741
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Very interesting article on 538 detailing the impact of the Electoral college
    Pennsylvania is currently the most likely tipping-point state in the Electoral College (nearly a 1 in 3 chance), and at the moment, Biden is projected to win there by 4.5 points. But even if that were to happen, that still puts Pennsylvania 2.5 points to the right of the forecast’s national margin. What that means is if the polls were to tighten and Biden’s national advantage slips, the rightward tilt of Pennsylvania could very well help Trump win. And because most of the other likely tipping-point states lean Republican, Trump could capture enough right-leaning battleground states to win a majority in the Electoral College without winning the national popular vote.

    It basically confirms that currently a Democratic party candidate needs to have about a 6% to 7% lead in the National vote to be comfortable of winning the EC which is a nuts system.

    The table below shows the % Electoral College win chance based on the size of the National vote victory

    NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE SCENARIO SCENARIO CHANCE BIDEN CHANCE IN SCENARIO
    Trump wins popular vote 10% 0.8%
    Biden wins by 0 to 1 points 3 7.4
    Biden wins by 1 to 2 points 4 19.7
    Biden wins by 2 to 3 points 5 44.9
    Biden wins by 3 to 4 points 6 69.6
    Biden wins by 4 to 5 points 6 88.4
    Biden wins by 5 to 6 points 7 96.0
    Biden wins by 6 to 7 points 7 98.9
    Biden wins by 7 to 8 points 7 99.8
    Biden wins by 8 or more points 43 100.0

    Biden winning the National vote by 3% only gives him a 50:50 chance of winning the WH - Madness.


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    #6742
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Crazy system


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    #6743
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Ahead of tonight's debate, according to Fox, Trump has refused 30 min breaks, insisted on a drugs test for Biden, and that his ears be checked for ear pieces.....


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    #6744
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,655 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Ahead of tonight's debate, according to Fox, Trump has refused 30 min breaks, insisted on a drugs test for Biden, and that his ears be checked for ear pieces.....


    So we can infer from this thanks to his legendary projection he will blame his performance on a lack of breaks, drop his earpiece at some stage during the debate and is as many have guessed on a ton of adderall.


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    #6745
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    VinLieger wrote: »
    So we can infer from this thanks to his legendary projection he will blame his performance on a lack of breaks, drop his earpiece at some stage during the debate and is as many have guessed on a ton of adderall.

    Biden should insist on covfefe every 30 mins and a break half way through for hamberders...


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    #6746
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Ahead of tonight's debate, according to Fox, Trump has refused 30 min breaks, insisted on a drugs test for Biden, and that his ears be checked for ear pieces.....

    I wonder what odds you could get for Trump flat out refusing to do anymore debates after tonight claiming that Biden is on drugs and has an unfair advantage?


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    #6747
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,443 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Ahead of tonight's debate, according to Fox, Trump has refused 30 min breaks, insisted on a drugs test for Biden, and that his ears be checked for ear pieces.....

    He wants Bidens ears checked for earpieces ? Was there a suggestion of 30 minutes breaks by the debate team that I missed. It’s a ninety minute event so neither of them should have a break.


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    #6748
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,632 ✭✭✭eire4


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    He wants Bidens ears checked for earpieces ? Was there a suggestion of 30 minutes breaks by the debate team that I missed. It’s a ninety minute event so neither of them should have a break.

    It is US tv there will be plenty of breaks for ads anyway.


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    #6749
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    eire4 wrote: »
    It is US tv there will be plenty of breaks for ads anyway.

    According to the article , the debate is supposed to run ad-free and uninterrupted.


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    #6750
    namloc1980
    Registered Users Posts: 18,072 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    eire4 wrote: »
    It is US tv there will be plenty of breaks for ads anyway.

    The debate is 90 minutes uninterrupted. These rules were set down by the Commission on Presidential Debates in October 2019. There was never any suggestion of 30 minute breaks or the likes either.

    https://www.debates.org/2019/10/11/commission-on-presidential-debates-announces-sites-and-dates-for-2020-general-election-debates-and-2020-nonpartisan-candidate-selection-criteria/

    Trump is just laying the groundwork for his excuses after the debate.


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    #6751
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,409 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    I wonder what odds you could get for Trump flat out refusing to do anymore debates after tonight claiming that Biden is on drugs and has an unfair advantage?

    There are some interesting videos for tonight on sky bet

    To win based on CNN (cue outrage by Trump supporters) snap poll Biden 1/4 Trump 11/4

    3/1 for the words "unfit for office" to be used

    A decent 5/1 for disinfectant and 6/1 for greatest president ever you could even get 25/1 for Megan Markle getting a mention.


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