US Presidential Election 2020

Mancomb Seepgood

The Nal wrote: »

This is going to be a Reagan Mondale type trouncing. Huge parallels between the two elections.

Walter Mondale carried Minnesota (his own state), and DC. Reagan won every other state. There is absolutely no way that is happening this time.

It's amazing how much certainty some people have that Trump winning is a done deal.Does he have a reasonable chance - of course. Biden is very much in with a shout though.

The Nal

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

Biden is very much in with a shout though.

Why? What does he offer? Can he improve the economy? Is there a war for him to come out against?

Its just the bog standard Democrat playbook. Middle ground stuff. Politics-lite.

The Nal

The Nal wrote: »

Why? What does he offer? Can he improve the economy? Is there a war for him to come out against?

Its just the bog standard Democrat playbook. Middle ground stuff. Politics-lite.

The economy is potentially entering a recession prior to the elections. Corona is likely speeding that up. Also, the Rustbelt aren't exactly feeling as if they've had their lives improved by Trump, no return of the steel industry or mining.

Also there's the dire handling of the Coronavirus in general, this is the president in a crisis.

Mancomb Seepgood

The Nal wrote: »

Why? What does he offer? Can he improve the economy? Is there a war for him to come out against?

Its just the bog standard Democrat playbook. Middle ground stuff. Politics-lite.

He is not Donald Trump. Not a lot to go on but it seems to be enough for a lot of voters to go on. As well as that, he doesn't appear to inspire hatred or dislike among a large portion of the electorate to the extent that Hillary did, and his goofiness and personal back story seem to make him somewhat relatable.

I'd prefer Sanders personally but I'm forced to admit if he can be well managed for the remainder of the campaign Biden may well be in a better position to do the one thing all Democrats want: beat Donald Trump.

The Phantom Jipper

I kind of do a double take every time I see people claim Trump is a strong favourite. Many polls had a majority of voters / high 40s wanting him impeached and removed from office. This is even before you factor in people who didn't want him removed as they wanted the election to be the mechanism that removed him from office. He isn't running against Hillary Clinton this time either. There's very little reason to call him the favourite at this stage.

eagle eye

The Phantom Jipper wrote:

I kind of do a double take every time I see people claim Trump is a strong favourite. Many polls had a majority of voters / high 40s wanting him impeached and removed from office. This is even before you factor in people who didn't want him removed as they wanted the election to be the mechanism that removed him from office. He isn't running against Hillary Clinton this time either. There's very little reason to call him the favourite at this stage.

It's the opponent is the reason he is favourite. Joe Biden has no hope of getting swing voters to the polls.
I said even before we had any named candidates that we needed somebody in the 40-55 age bracket to energise the electorate. Democrat success in the Presidential election tells you that. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, JFK, Roosevelt were all in that age bracket when they got elected first time. You'll notice I left out Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman but they were incumbents when they went for election as President first time.
The Dems need to get their house in order now and plan for 2024. You have lots of good candidates but they need to start working with them now and get them.plentubif exposure so that by the time it's back to nominations that people are interested in candidates already.
If the Democrats getting into mud slinging with Trump I think it will do untold damage to the party. They need to stay above that.

The Nal

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

He is not Donald Trump. Not a lot to go on but it seems to be enough for a lot of voters to go on. As well as that, he doesn't appear to inspire hatred or dislike among a large portion of the electorate to the extent that Hillary did, and his goofiness and personal back story seem to make him somewhat relatable.

So hes an Al Gore/John Kerry. Except 20 years older. Typical weak Democrat campaign in the post. A load of sanctimonious oul shíte.

Foxtrol

Dytalus wrote: »

Yang is young (comparatively to the rest) and has two organisations promoting progressive causes already set up. He got a fair bit of name recognition from this campaign (again comparatively to before) and if he plays his cards right he could grow substantially. Accepting a Biden position could go one of two ways: alienate his mostly progressive base, or show new supporters that he can get work done and has the ear of moderates.

He's not done yet. I personally would have prioritised Warren or Sanders over Yang because of M4A and student debt as more immediate concerns, but automation and the UBI question is only going to get more relevant as time ticks on. I don't see Yang staying out of the political light for long.

Yang came out last night and endorsed Biden. He said he has talked him through a lot of his point of view and believes Biden is listening.

Instead of the boogie man 'establishment', this is the real reason why Bernie is so toxic to endorsements from his opponents for nominee - he doesn't seem to want to ask for help of others nor try to listen to them - it is his way or the highway. This is the same reason why he has a problem connecting outside of his base.

FTA69

Sleepy Joe promising no real change and making a fool of himself every time he takes the stage.

We've been through this before; crowbarring in an establishment candidate who will engage in platitudes but has no real intention of making a real difference in the lives of ordinary people. Trump will win again, and people will learn nothing, again.

duploelabs

I really look forward to a time where the use of nicknames is consigned back to the under-7s

Foxtrol

FTA69 wrote: »

Sleepy Joe promising no real change and making a fool of himself every time he takes the stage.

We've been through this before; crowbarring in an establishment candidate who will engage in platitudes but has no real intention of making a real difference in the lives of ordinary people. Trump will win again, and people will learn nothing, again.

Crowbarring is such nonsense. Bernie is an incredibly flawed candidate who wasted 4 years firing up his small base instead of making any real efforts to broaden it. If you're claiming the voters want 'real change' then get behind a candidate that can actually bring people with them and sell the change to a broader group voters, rather than one that just targets their own little echo chamber and makes out that everyone that doesn't agree 100% with them is the enemy. Warren could have been that candidate.

everlast75

duploelabs wrote: »

I really look forward to a time where the use of nicknames is consigned back to the under-7s

I think it serves a purpose. Once I see a nickname I stop reading. Saves a lot of time.

Foxtrol wrote: »

Crowbarring is such nonsense. Bernie is an incredibly flawed candidate who wasted 4 years firing up his small base instead of making any real efforts to broaden it. If you're claiming the voters want 'real change' then get behind a candidate that can actually bring people with them and sell the change to a broader group voters, rather than one that just targets their own little echo chamber and makes out that everyone that doesn't agree 100% with them is the enemy. Warren could have been that candidate.

Agreed. And, it begs the question - was the reason for Bernie's appeal in 2016 mainly a protest vote against Hillary Clinton?

FTA69

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

l creepy joe.

FTA69 wrote: »

Sleepy Joe

##Mod Note##

Cut out the nicknames please.

Thanks

everlast75

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1237761961099759618?s=20

So putting aside who is putting this information out (some people have issues with BK) - how is this not a positive sign for Biden?

The Phantom Jipper

FTA69 wrote: »

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

I thought the same but the proof is there in the results. His campaign has been a bit of a shambles, half arsing it with no organisation and ads in some states but still cleaning up almost everywhere. He's winning state after state so his theory of the case seems to be correct.

briany

There's a great clip on Youtube that is a condensed version of the Young Turks' show for election night 2016. In the space of half an hour, they go from fairly smug about Hillary's chances to having a major meltdown. But the climax of it was host Cenk Uygur's lambasting of the DNC and their corporatism and promising to 'pulverise' it and 'rip it to shreds'. Those things have not happened, and those things will probably never happen. If the younger, idealistic folk of the USA want a real alternative, they will have to actually create one via a 3rd party.

FTA69

FTA69 wrote: »

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

He's more likely to appeal to middle of the road voters and even Republicans, Sanders realistically never had that kind of a draw.

Rjd2

FTA69 wrote: »

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

I have no time for Biden and even less so for the selfish boomers who voted to **** over young people who backed Biden last night, but the turnout for Biden has been excellent last 2 Tuesdays.

Look at the Michigan numbers a battle ground state , Biden got 200 000 more votes than Clinton last time, that's is really ****ing impressive.


We have a recession on its way, a pandemic running wild, a hugely energetic Dem base, a President who hasn't expanded his base, if Trump wins its going to be really ****ing tight.

peddlelies

Biden will talk it in November provided nothing crazy happens like a major scandal

Gbear

briany wrote: »

There's a great clip on Youtube that is a condensed version of the Young Turks' show for election night 2016. In the space of half an hour, they go from fairly smug about Hillary's chances to having a major meltdown. But the climax of it was host Cenk Uygur's lambasting of the DNC and their corporatism and promising to 'pulverise' it and 'rip it to shreds'. Those things have not happened, and those things will probably never happen. If the younger, idealistic folk of the USA want a real alternative, they will have to actually create one via a 3rd party.

That's an even bigger waste of time.

Even in the UK where they don't have as strong a tether to poltical duopoly, I don't believe any third party has cracked so much as 10% of the seats in a hundred years.

It is not viable to attempt to go third party in a system that is fundamentally structured to produce two.

The ultimate goal of anyone who doesn't fit in the big tent parties - Leftists, Libertarians, Greens, or whatever, should be to infiltrate those parties and push as their single most important issue, implementation of proporational voting, or otherwise deconstruct an electoral system which is inimical to the establishment of nuanced political structures.

Rjd2

Gbear wrote: »

That's an even bigger waste of time.

Even in the UK where they don't have as strong a tether to poltical duopoly, I don't believe any third party has cracked so much as 10% of the seats in a hundred years.

It is not viable to attempt to go third party in a system that is fundamentally structured to produce two.

The ultimate goal of anyone who doesn't fit in the big tent parties - Leftists, Libertarians, Greens, or whatever, should be to infiltrate those parties and push as their single most important issue, implementation of proporational voting, or otherwise deconstruct an electoral system which is inimical to the establishment of nuanced political structures.

Sad but true.

2024 whoever is on the losing side will be fascinating to watch.

The left represented by AOC will be in a stronger position with demographic changes and climate change been an emergency while the right will have a war with the neocons making 1 last power grab with someone like Hailey, De Santis or Crenshaw while Trumpism will be repackaged under someone like Donald JR, Hawley etc.

eire4

Gbear wrote: »

That's an even bigger waste of time.

Even in the UK where they don't have as strong a tether to poltical duopoly, I don't believe any third party has cracked so much as 10% of the seats in a hundred years.

It is not viable to attempt to go third party in a system that is fundamentally structured to produce two.

The ultimate goal of anyone who doesn't fit in the big tent parties - Leftists, Libertarians, Greens, or whatever, should be to infiltrate those parties and push as their single most important issue, implementation of proporational voting, or otherwise deconstruct an electoral system which is inimical to the establishment of nuanced political structures.

The main reason this is correct is that in the US at the local and state and federal level they have all sorts of rules set up by the Republicans and Democrats to make sure no third parties can really become viable and seriously threaten their duopoly on power. An example of the insidious nature of this duopoly on power is the so call Presidential Debates. They make it seem like this is a whole neutral organization set up to organize these debates. When in fact the Presidential debates commission is a company set up and run by the Republicans and Democrats with rules they put in place to make it very difficult for any genuine other voices emerge outside the 2 corrupt parties in power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates

everlast75

Not a good sign for Trump...

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1237832247492960261?s=19

briany

Gbear wrote: »

That's an even bigger waste of time.

Even in the UK where they don't have as strong a tether to poltical duopoly, I don't believe any third party has cracked so much as 10% of the seats in a hundred years.

It is not viable to attempt to go third party in a system that is fundamentally structured to produce two.

The ultimate goal of anyone who doesn't fit in the big tent parties - Leftists, Libertarians, Greens, or whatever, should be to infiltrate those parties and push as their single most important issue, implementation of proporational voting, or otherwise deconstruct an electoral system which is inimical to the establishment of nuanced political structures.

eire4 wrote: »

The main reason this is correct is that in the US at the local and state and federal level they have all sorts of rules set up by the Republicans and Democrats to make sure no third parties can really become viable and seriously threaten their duopoly on power. An example of the insidious nature of this duopoly on power is the so call Presidential Debates. They make it seem like this is a whole neutral organization set up to organize these debates. When in fact the Presidential debates commission is a company set up and run by the Republicans and Democrats with rules they put in place to make it very difficult for any genuine other voices emerge outside the 2 corrupt parties in power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates

You're never going to fix a political duopoly like the U.S. has by working within it. If all the left-wing movement of the United States is going to do is bleat on about how the debates are controlled by the Dems and the Republicans then they're just perpetuating their woes. They have other methods nowadays to get their message out there and coordinate themselves. They may not be able to get on the debate stage, but they can make a political movement that's too big to ignore, and they can get names on the ballot, and they can go and vote for those people. The way is clear, but the will appears to be lacking.

eire4

briany wrote: »

You're never going to fix a political duopoly like the U.S. has by working within it. If all the left-wing movement of the United States is going to do is bleat on about how the debates are controlled by the Dems and the Republicans then they're just perpetuating their woes. They have other methods nowadays to get their message out there and coordinate themselves. They may not be able to get on the debate stage, but they can make a political movement that's too big to ignore, and they can get names on the ballot, and they can go and vote for those people. The way is clear, but the will appears to be lacking.

It is not quite as simple as that as even at local and state level the Democrats and Republicans have put in place various regulations designed to prevent alternatives emerging that can actually become viable ultimately on a national scale.

I do hear what your saying though and there needs to be some movement to pull away and form other parties but given the above it is very difficult and sadly it has not happened yet.

Gbear

briany wrote: »

You're never going to fix a political duopoly like the U.S. has by working within it. If all the left-wing movement of the United States is going to do is bleat on about how the debates are controlled by the Dems and the Republicans then they're just perpetuating their woes. They have other methods nowadays to get their message out there and coordinate themselves. They may not be able to get on the debate stage, but they can make a political movement that's too big to ignore, and they can get names on the ballot, and they can go and vote for those people. The way is clear, but the will appears to be lacking.

If Biden is elected, he will be doing so on the most progressive platform in a century, and possibly in the history of the country.

With AOC being made the face of the party by the Republicans who are obsessed with her because they're racist mysoginists, and Sander's success, there has been a sense that the left had "taken over" the party, but the primaries have shown that's it's actually still relatively moderate.
But, the policy platform has still shifted, and that is also because the left-wingers, driving the party that direction and moving the debate. Obamacare was like pulling teeth once upon a time. Now it's the bare minimum.

Utopianism is **** politics. Radicalism is **** politics. They don't win. Look at what happened to Corbynism. You must accept incremental progression, or all you're going to get is incremental regression.

Water John

Trump is addressing the country on Covid 19 at 9 pm ET. If he gets the tone of this wrong, he's cooked.

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

Trump is addressing the country on Covid 19 at 9 pm ET. If he gets the tone of this wrong, he's cooked.

As much as I think he'll go down as a bad president even I hope he gets this speech right tonight. Whether he does or not remains to be seen.

Itssoeasy

VP Pence gave a much better performance last weekend of the weekend before on the Sunday shows. It wasn't what he said(although he seemed to have some grasp) but it was his tone and the fact he's able to string a sentence together.