So Michael D IS running again!

Beechwoodspark

seamus wrote: »

Anecdotally, nobody I know from any background has said they're giving Casey their number one, except in jest.

The only people I see claiming they will are randomers online.

Let’s wait and see. I have given my prediction. What’s yours?

VinLieger

seamus wrote: »

Anecdotally, nobody I know from any background has said they're giving Casey their number one, except in jest.

The only people I see claiming they will are randomers online.

Similar to what ive seen, I also get the impression that many people who claim they are voting for casey are of the demographic that have never registered to vote.

seamus

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Let’s wait and see. I have given my prediction. What’s yours?

Very low turnout, between 30 and 40%.

Higgins around 60%, Gallagher 10%-ish, with Casey making a decent attempt in 3rd. Freeman and Ni Riada neck-and-neck, and Duffy polling last.

Blasphemy will pass but with an unexpectedly low approval %. 60-70% when it should be 80-90%.

The last few elections have proven that what people come out with online about "A group of really cool young guys I talked to down the pub are voting no" and, "I'm going to use my ten votes", is generally bull. Whether it's deliberate trolling or misguided optimism, doesn't matter. What you actually hear on the street from people you know and can verify, or sentiment from broadcasts or newspapers, is far more accurate than what's spouted online.

Hurrache

B0jangles wrote: »

Voting for someone who once said something you like, even though the role they are going for has no power to change anything about that thing is extremely silly.

I'm thinking, nay hoping, that this is actually the reason. They know the position doesn't have much influence on anything and therefore don't mind using their vote like this, and when it comes to local or general elections they'll vote with a bit more serious thought.

There is always those who don't care no matter what anyway.

McMurphy

VinLieger wrote: »

Similar to what ive seen, I also get the impression that many people who claim they are voting for casey are of the demographic that have never registered to vote.

I find that comment stereotypical, bigoted and racist.

(See how this works?)

gmisk

seamus wrote: »

Very low turnout, between 30 and 40%.

Higgins around 60%, Gallagher 10%-ish, with Casey making a decent attempt in 3rd. Freeman and Ni Riada neck-and-neck, and Duffy polling last.

Blasphemy will pass but with an unexpectedly low approval %. 60-70% when it should be 80-90%.

The last few elections have proven that what people come out with online about "A group of really cool young guys I talked to down the pub are voting no" and, "I'm going to use my ten votes", is generally bull. Whether it's deliberate trolling or misguided optimism, doesn't matter. What you actually hear on the street from people you know and can verify, or sentiment from broadcasts or newspapers, is far more accurate than what's spouted online.

I am guessing Higgins will get 50-60.
Casey second 15-20ish I would think, would be surprised if he doesn't get second now.
The rest nowhere to be seen.

Tell me how

Johnny Dogs wrote:

I find that comment stereotypical, bigoted and racist.

Do documented legal status, public sector offices and governments support you in coming to this finding?

MrMusician18

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm thinking, nay hoping, that this is actually the reason. They know the position doesn't have much influence on anything and therefore don't mind using their vote like this, and when it comes to local or general elections they'll vote with a bit more serious thought.

There is always those who don't care no matter what anyway.

Wishful thinking tbh. There's a significant cohort of people who are finding the changes society is going through extremely difficult. Just this week we saw the countrys first meaningful climate and environment action with BnaM closing 17 bogs this year and ending production by 2025, with the resultant loss of over 400 jobs. Indeed this is only the warm up act for between 3-5 years time when all turf cutting, even domestic, will be prohibited. This is going to become another totemic issue.


33% voted against abortion and 40% against same sex marriage. While not the majority, it is not hyperbole to say that there a significant minority who do not recognise what the country is becoming.

ancapailldorcha

realdanbreen will be taking a break.

Please keep posts constructive and dial back on the silliness.

Jackman25

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wishful thinking tbh. There's a significant cohort of people who are finding the changes society is going through extremely difficult. Just this week we saw the countrys first meaningful climate and environment action with BnaM closing 17 bogs this year and ending production by 2025, with the resultant loss of over 400 jobs. Indeed this is only the warm up act for between 3-5 years time when all turf cutting, even domestic, will be prohibited. This is going to become another totemic issue.


33% voted against abortion and 40% against same sex marriage. While not the majority, it is not hyperbole to say that there a significant minority who do not recognise what the country is becoming.

Loosely translated as its just the troglodytes and mongos that will be voting for Casey today. I hope the vote today gives the likes of you a good wake up call.
I voted for SSM and for Repeal and will be voting for Casey today and I'd say there are plenty in the same boat. Please don't generalise us all as backwards people living in the last century.

Quin_Dub

gmisk wrote: »

I am guessing Higgins will get 50-60.
Casey second 15-20ish I would think, would be surprised if he doesn't get second now.
The rest nowhere to be seen.

I think that if Casey gets his expenses back he will have done remarkably (and disappointingly in my view ) well. I just can't see it myself.


Turn-out is going to be low - 30-40% tops , so roughly 1.1M/1.2M votes cast give or take (Electorate is ~3.2M).

Given that level of apathy , can Casey get ~150k votes to get his expenses?

Really don't see it myself..

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wishful thinking tbh. There's a significant cohort of people who are finding the changes society is going through extremely difficult. Just this week we saw the countrys first meaningful climate and environment action with BnaM closing 17 bogs this year and ending production by 2025, with the resultant loss of over 400 jobs. Indeed this is only the warm up act for between 3-5 years time when all turf cutting, even domestic, will be prohibited. This is going to become another totemic issue.


33% voted against abortion and 40% against same sex marriage. While not the majority, it is not hyperbole to say that there a significant minority who do not recognise what the country is becoming.

Neither is it hyperbole to say that those numbers will fall significantly and quickly year on year while a more liberal progressive mindset will become eligible to vote and replace them. Such is life.

Hurrache

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wishful thinking tbh. There's a significant cohort of people who are finding the changes society is going through extremely difficult. Just this week we saw the countrys first meaningful climate and environment action with BnaM closing 17 bogs this year and ending production by 2025, with the resultant loss of over 400 jobs. Indeed this is only the warm up act for between 3-5 years time when all turf cutting, even domestic, will be prohibited. This is going to become another totemic issue.

Like everything, it all depends on what side of the fence you're standing on. Nobody with an interest in the environment would have been surprised to see the closures in BnM, in fact the surprise was that it hasn't happened before now as it's totally unsustainable in a number of ways.

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Neither is it hyperbole to say that those numbers will fall significantly and quickly year on year while a more liberal progressive mindset will become eligible to vote and replace them. Such is life.

I don't believe they will. Automation and the inability to adjust to it's consequences will drive people to the right.

It's societies inability to deal with uncomfortable but real issues that's the problem, whether that be the real problems with traveller crime, the inability to provide quality jobs for low and medium skilled workers and taxing old ways of life out of existence.

rovertom

It's a good job there is not electronic voting. Considering that government and media have done everything in their power to make Case go away, electronic ballot with no paper record might just have been the tool they needed.

blanch152

seamus wrote: »

Very low turnout, between 30 and 40%.

Higgins around 60%, Gallagher 10%-ish, with Casey making a decent attempt in 3rd. Freeman and Ni Riada neck-and-neck, and Duffy polling last.

Blasphemy will pass but with an unexpectedly low approval %. 60-70% when it should be 80-90%.

The last few elections have proven that what people come out with online about "A group of really cool young guys I talked to down the pub are voting no" and, "I'm going to use my ten votes", is generally bull. Whether it's deliberate trolling or misguided optimism, doesn't matter. What you actually hear on the street from people you know and can verify, or sentiment from broadcasts or newspapers, is far more accurate than what's spouted online.

Casey will catch Gallagher and finish second, but it won't matter because Higgins will be elected on the first count. Only those three will have any substantive kind of vote.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Neither is it hyperbole to say that those numbers will fall significantly and quickly year on year while a more liberal progressive mindset will become eligible to vote and replace them. Such is life.

I don't think so. The trend we are seeing internationally is for regressively nationalistic parties to rise. The trend is somewhat hidden by the fact that these parties are coming from the right and the left. Within the English speaking world, you have Trump, Brexit, DUP and the rise of Sinn Fein. In the rest of Europe, we have seen Italy, Germany, Poland and Greece all see significant rises in support for that old-style nationalism from parties of all hues.

Loafing Oaf

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't think so. The trend we are seeing internationally is for regressively nationalistic parties to rise. The trend is somewhat hidden by the fact that these parties are coming from the right and the left. Within the English speaking world, you have Trump, Brexit, DUP and the rise of Sinn Fein. In the rest of Europe, we have seen Italy, Germany, Poland and Greece all see significant rises in support for that old-style nationalism from parties of all hues.

So you see the rise of Sinn Fein as a counter to the liberal/progressive trend Francie is talking about?

Tell me how

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So you see the rise of Sinn Fein as a counter to the liberal/progressive trend Francie is talking about?

No, I think Blanch is suggesting that internationally there are several examples of more conservative groups rising in popularity.

I'm not sure if I agree that Sinn Fein are as nationalistic as they have been. I think they are actively trying to appear quite central since Mary Lou assumed the top seat.

Loafing Oaf

Tell me how wrote: »

No, I think Blanch is suggesting that internationally there are several examples of more conservative groups rising in popularity.

But no sign whatsoever of such groups rising in Ireland. And the growing strength of Sin Fein is evidence of the opposite tendency.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So you see the rise of Sinn Fein as a counter to the liberal/progressive trend Francie is talking about?

Tell me how wrote: »

No, I think Blanch is suggesting that internationally there are several examples of more conservative groups rising in popularity.

I'm not sure if I agree that Sinn Fein are as nationalistic as they have been. I think they are actively trying to appear quite central since Mary Lou assumed the top seat.

What I am saying is that internationally we are seeing the rise of nationalistic parties and nationalist sentiment again and it is happening on both sides of the traditional political spectrum. Trump is a sign of that, Brexit is a sign of that, Syriza is a sign of that, the Five-Star Movement and the League in Italy from opposite sides of the spectrum, the polarisation of Northern Irish politics with the demise of the SDLP and the UUP, with the rise of DUP and SF, Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, the Polish government, the list goes on. In Ireland we have the rise of Sinn Fein.

All of these parties and movements share a sense of their nation being under attack and being against some class of generic outsiders, whether that is immigrants, the EU, unfair trading partners or the British.

It is deeply unsettling.

Tell me how

blanch152 wrote: »

What I am saying is that internationally we are seeing the rise of nationalistic parties and nationalist sentiment again and it is happening on both sides of the traditional political spectrum. Trump is a sign of that, Brexit is a sign of that, Syriza is a sign of that, the Five-Star Movement and the League in Italy from opposite sides of the spectrum, the polarisation of Northern Irish politics with the demise of the SDLP and the UUP, with the rise of DUP and SF, Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, the Polish government, the list goes on. In Ireland we have the rise of Sinn Fein.

All of these parties and movements share a sense of their nation being under attack and being against some class of generic outsiders, whether that is immigrants, the EU, unfair trading partners or the British.

It is deeply unsettling.

I agree that it is unsettling in a global sense, but I hope that we are reaching the pinnacle of the advance of right wing thought and that (as the wheel is always turning) we will see more central views regain or retain power in most jurisdictions. I'm not overly confident, but I do hope.

Have SF not regressed from speaking in polarising terms of occupation/invaders/occupiers over the last 20 years?
Note Liadh Ni Riada's comments that she would wear a poppy during the 1st presidential debate.

Chips Lovell

You can link Sinn Fein with the rise of nationalist, populist parties in other countries.

Having said that, there's certainly scope for someone else emerging and stealing their lunch by bolting on anti-immigrant/anti-minority rhetoric to their spiel. Given the reaction to Casey's comments, there could be an appetite for it if someone gets the messaging right.

blackwhite

Tell me how wrote: »

I agree that it is unsettling in a global sense, but I hope that we are reaching the pinnacle of the advance of right wing thought and that (as the wheel is always turning) we will see more central views regain or retain power in most jurisdictions. I'm not overly confident, but I do hope.

Have SF not regressed from speaking in polarising terms of occupation/invaders/occupiers over the last 20 years?
Note Liadh Ni Riada's comments that she would wear a poppy during the 1st presidential debate.

TBH - a lot of their economic commentary and policy proposals over the past 10-15 years has simply recycled the old rhetoric but substituted the EU, the IMF or "foreign" business for the traditional "Brit" bogeyman.

hill16bhoy

Sinn Fein is basically now a mainstream liberal social democratic party along the lines of the SNP. It is pro-EU and shares pretty much nothing with far right nationalist parties in Europe and elsewhere.

Trump, Brexit, DUP, Le Pen, Salvini etc. are all essentially imperialist and white ethno-nationalist in nature while Sinn Fein is explicitly anti-imperialist and pluralist in nature.

It also has none of the conservative theocratic overtones of the European far right and is solidly supportive of same sex marriage, transgender rights and abortion rights.

Comparisons of Sinn Fein to the European far right are fatuous.

seamus

Turnout very low, but considerably higher in affluent areas than working-class areas. I'd say that bodes poorly for those hoping for a major Peter Casey protest vote.

That's not to say the working class don't like Michael D, but as we know from other countries, the identity politics stuff and attempted mud-slinging tends to appeal to the less educated.

Loafing Oaf

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

You can link Sinn Fein with the rise of nationalist, populist parties in other countries.

Having said that, there's certainly scope for someone else emerging and stealing their lunch by bolting on anti-immigrant/anti-minority rhetoric to their spiel. Given the reaction to Casey's comments, there could be an appetite for it if someone gets the messaging right.

I've been hearing about this supposed gap in the political market for what seems like decades and no-one has ever stepped into it. Surely the economic crisis of a decade ago was the moment for a political force along the lines you describe to emerge in Ireland if it was ever going to happen? As things stand, I don't see any particular reason for the establishment parties to 'mind the gap'...

An Ciarraioch

seamus wrote: »

Turnout very low, but considerably higher in affluent areas than working-class areas. I'd say that bodes poorly for those hoping for a major Peter Casey protest vote.

That's not to say the working class don't like Michael D, but as we know from other countries, the identity politics stuff and attempted mud-slinging tends to appeal to the less educated.

You'd certainly imagine he has the student vote wrapped up, though whether they'll come out in numbers remains to be seen.

Chips Lovell

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I've been hearing about this supposed gap in the political market for what seems like decades and no-one has ever stepped into it. Surely the economic crisis of a decade ago was the moment for a political force along the lines you describe to emerge in Ireland if it was ever going to happen? As things stand, I don't see any particular reason for the establishment parties to 'mind the gap'...

But SF and AAA/PBP got a decent amount of traction with populist positions, especially post recession. I never thought myself that there's a market for the kind of ethnic chauvinism we've seen elsewhere, but Casey's comments gave me pause for thought. Maybe it was all internet hot air though. We'll see tomorrow I guess if he got anything of a bump.

hotmail.com

The expected low turnout should lead to a conversation on the presidency itself.

It seems that many people in Ireland would be happy to see the thing completely abolished. Showing up at rugby matches and the like.. is it really worth the expense?

Many people will vote for Michael D today, but not with any great enthusiasm.

It wouldn't surprise me if we see a large percentage of spoiled votes.