So Michael D IS running again!

Zubeneschamali

marieholmfan wrote: »

Should be an option to vote none of the above.

In our system, you are allowed to not vote or spoil your vote.

What would "None of the Above" mean if it came first? No President for 7 years?

alaimacerc

marieholmfan wrote: »

No because I want a situation where none of the above could win and a seat would be left vacant.

Very inconvenient for single-position offices, and very much discouraged for other elections by the "localism" factor.

marieholmfan

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

In our system, you are allowed to not vote or spoil your vote.

What would "None of the Above" mean if it came first? No President for 7 years?

Exactly. In the case of the President just no President. Or else sortition.

Zubeneschamali

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

most people don't particularly care, and may even be somewhat irritated by this whole (expensive) circus when - barring any last minute shockers - the result is a foregone conclusion.

A "foregone conclusion" result combined with a low turnout can mean a protest vote can surprise everyone. I think this is partly what happened with Brexit, Nice and Lisbon.

alaimacerc

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

IMO, by not turning up for last night`s debate, Gallagher has definitely come across as being arrogant and it may well cost him second place and quite likely his expenses on polling day.

Possibly, but you'd be brave to bet on those either way. The polls may be especially unreliable, in an election where 8% say "don't know", but 60%+ of their feet will say "can't be bothered to go vote".

Higgins and Gallagher might be have the most name recognition, so their vote might be the most inflated by people whose preference is rendered ineffective by pencil remaining half a kilometre away from the ballot-paper. Or vice versa, their supporters might be the only ones that think there's even anything at stake for them.

gmisk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A "foregone conclusion" result combined with a low turnout can mean a protest vote can surprise everyone. I think this is partly what happened with Brexit, Nice and Lisbon.

But the difference with those is they were all yes/no, this is picking one candidate out of a field.
I would personally be shocked if Michael D got 70% but I could definitely see him getting 60%.

alaimacerc

marieholmfan wrote: »

Exactly. In the case of the President just no President.

The state, headless! And to think of the laughing stock Belgium were when they merely lacked a government for a year or so...

In theory, I think this would mean that visiting dignitaries would have to shake the hands of at least two of the Presidential Commission in order to be officially greeted thereby. Protocol officers would love this stuff!

Or else sortition.

That's what'd happen at present, but expressly not given your plan, surely. Unless there's some unstated second shoe to drop.

blanch152

marieholmfan wrote: »

No because I want a situation where none of the above could win and a seat would be left vacant.

A very dangerous situation for democracy.

Imagine a situation in Ireland of the 1940s where FF regularly won close to 50% of the poll. Could some of their voters voting none of the above have ensured that FF won all seats in a constituency, by having a second election? A permanent majority could have ensued.

goat2

Casey is my number one,

alaimacerc

eastwest wrote: »

NI Riada's snide remark about freeman's relationship with the pyramid seller guy were nasty. She's not a nice person.

TBF, I think it came across differently than she intended, and she's apparently apologised subsequently (according to a comment on the SO'R show).

She does come across as the most strident of the candidates (... that are polling above 1%...) The others are basically trying to be as amiable and inoffensive as possible, on the basis that's the "presidential" thing to be.

It's rather the SF house style, though. And she's polling so poorly that she may feel she has to do something to change things.

gmisk

goat2 wrote: »

Casey is my number one,

Peter Casey is that you?

blanch152

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A "foregone conclusion" result combined with a low turnout can mean a protest vote can surprise everyone. I think this is partly what happened with Brexit, Nice and Lisbon.

From last week's poll which had him at 70%:

"He has over 60% support across most age groups, with 83% support among 18-34-year-olds. His support is also national – with 79% support in Dublin, 70% in the rest of Leinster, 67% in Munster and 63% in Connacht/Ulster."

A low turnout in Dublin, and a low-turnout among 18-34 year olds, together with some slippage would at worst see him mid-50s in terms of percentage on the day.

He would really need to see the headline number drop well below 60% before we could even think of a second count, and even then, if it dropped that far, more would come out to vote for him, keeping him above 50%.

Really hard to see any scenario where he could lose, based on those figures.

Cork Boy 53

goat2 wrote: »

Casey is my number one,

Number one spoofer?

alaimacerc

blanch152 wrote: »

Could some of their voters voting none of the above have ensured that FF won all seats in a constituency, by having a second election?

No.

You're assuming the vacant seat is immediately filled again by a by-election. marieholmfan is proposing that it remain vacant indefinitely.

Also, if you can reach a quota for "none of the above", you can get a quota for one of your candidates. So why bother?

goat2

gmisk wrote: »

Peter Casey is that you?

nly, wish it was, would love to have his bank balance

Zubeneschamali

gmisk wrote: »

But the difference with those is they were all yes/no, this is picking one candidate out of a field.

I think this was SFs only hope - that they could paint Higgins as the FF/FG/Lab Establishment candidate and themselves as the Opposition, and hope that the "throw em all out" protest vote would come out.

Now, as you say, any protest will be spread around.

VinLieger

goat2 wrote: »

nly, wish it was, would love to have his bank balance

What makes you think he would make a good president?

goat2

VinLieger wrote: »

What makes you think he would make a good president?

I come from a v large family, half of us are residing out of this country, and those family members have children ,
He would like these to have an opportunity to get to know their heritage more and encourage this

VinLieger

goat2 wrote: »

I come from a v large family, half of us are residing out of this country, and those family members have children ,
He would like these to have an opportunity to get to know their heritage more and encourage this

How is he going to achieve that?

Why can these childrens parents not take responsibility for this?

alaimacerc

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Now, as you say, any protest will be spread around.

That's a problem for the narrative, but not for the voting itself. Just vote Higgins #6, perm others 1-5 to taste.

alaimacerc

VinLieger wrote: »

How is he going to achieve that?

It's like the Candy Man, or Hastur. If you say "the diaspora" enough times...

Hurrache

I want to bring up something that got lost in the mire since the debate.

Casey claimed last night he was part of the Good Friday delegation. Does anyone know if this is true, or is he clutching at straws of some tenuous link that he's trying to big up? i.e. some community meeting up north on border issues feeding into the broader Good Friday Agreement process that he attended suddenly makes him part of the delegation?

blackwhite

blanch152 wrote: »

Has he? He has enriched himself, but has he damaged this country?

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/ireland-among-cheapest-in-europe-for-mobile-bills-but-dearest-for-home-broadband-35279538.html

Ireland is among the cheapest in Europe for mobile bills. Some of that at least is down to those that won the mobile licences and provided competition. Is that a good thing for the country? Or is the country damaged as a result?

To be clear, I don't like the man, I don't like the way he does business and I don't like that he became a tax exile. But has he damaged the country?

He’s funded the last two managerial teams for the national soccer team.

You could argue there’s a fair bit of damage been done by that

VinLieger

Hurrache wrote: »

I want to bring up something that got lost in the mire since the debate.

Casey claimed last night he was part of the Good Friday delegation. Does anyone know if this is true, or is he clutching at straws of some tenuous link that he's trying to big up? i.e. some community meeting up north on border issues feeding into the broader Good Friday Agreement process that he attended suddenly makes him part of the delegation?

I heard him say that before and just assumed it was true as to lie about it would be the absolute end of him

Sycamore Tree

Sean Gallagher was hugely damaged by not turning up last night. The optics for him were bad. I think he will come 4th now.

jm08

VinLieger wrote: »

I heard him say that before and just assumed it was true as to lie about it would be the absolute end of him

In his own words:

“I was part of the Good Friday Peace Delegation to the White House that ended up with the team that, sorry, that discussed and ended up making the recommendations that essentially ended up with the Good Friday Peace Agreement.

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2018/10/11/what-are-you-talking-about/

Sycamore Tree

Duplicate

Sycamore Tree

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

most people don't particularly care, and may even be somewhat irritated by this whole (expensive) circus when - barring any last minute shockers - the result is a foregone conclusion.

A "foregone conclusion" result combined with a low turnout can mean a protest vote can surprise everyone. I think this is partly what happened with Brexit, Nice and Lisbon.

A protest vote against who though?I have not met one person who plans to vote for anyone except MichaelD

Hurrache

He said he was part of the delegation to the White House. What I'm wondering is what delegation, and on who's behalf. Was he just selected almost randomly because at the time he once lived north?

Adamcp898

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

IMO, by not turning up for last night`s debate, Gallagher has definitely come across as being arrogant and it may well cost him second place and quite likely his expenses on polling day.

It's about the only pleasant surprise this election has to offer, almost enough to give one pause to consider making Mr. Casey their No. 2. It might also also require the people of Cavan-Monaghen to count exceptionally slowly :pac:



On the debate itself;

Casey - was Casey. "Any women?" has the potential to be the greatest soundbite to emerge from this election when he cut across Gav's nominations (or lack) for Council of State. Even though, like Liadh, I don't think he meant it quite like that.

Liadh - Played the republican card a lot stronger than she did on the radio debate, poppy and all. Still can't quite get my head around the "poor, marginalised me" angle, perhaps she's trying to use the electorate not knowing who she is to her advantage.

Freeman - Constantly having to battle her own views/relationships being thrown at her in various contexts - a war of attrition at best. So far she's just about stopping short of screaming "Can't you see!? I'm the only one civic minded enough to even be here" but she'd have a point.......

Duffy - The most polished sounding of them all I thought, not sure whether to be surprised by that or not. Still don't think he actually knows what he'd do if he found himself in the park mind, youth corps!? Only one to get the secret answer to Claire's poppy question, although you could argue Liadh offered the only answer she could have without making people roll their eyes.