Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

The cold air mass following the weak cold front from Thurs evening.

Meteorite58

Windy wet weather Sun through to Tues. Becoming quite mild from later Sun into Monday in a steady SW airflow.

Meteorite58

After a cool night a milder air mass from the SW spreading over the country tomorrow and for the coming days. Becoming windy and blustery and quite fresh on W and NW coasts. Rainfall seems to be confined to W and NW coasts, patchy light rain and drizzle a bit further inland possible in coastal counties perhaps. Staying dry in the E and S for the most part.

Marine Warning in operation.

Birdnuts

Scary amount of rain for the West coast next week if the 12Z GFS verifies!!

MJohnston

Did someone delete my last post here? Would appreciate a PM or a mod note about why, otherwise I can only assume it was a database glitch!

Harry Palmr

Looks like things could settle a bit from Wednesday with HP ambling about to our west but near enough to keep things basically dry if not calm.

ANDREWMUFC

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Looks like things could settle a bit from Wednesday with HP ambling about to our west but near enough to keep things basically dry if not calm.

Booooo

Meteorite58

HP ridging up over Ireland today and into tomorrow, being squeezed later Thursday from the W/ NW by a weak front but not making much inroads apart from drizzle and light rain in the W and N. Cold night in Store.



NASA Today

Artane2002

For some reason, Imgur isn't letting me upload pics... wanted to show the UKMO showing (near) record breaking high pressure for October. The September high pressure record was broken this year too. GFS is similar.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

For some reason, Imgur isn't letting me upload pics... wanted to show the UKMO showing (near) record breaking high pressure for October. The September high pressure record was broken this year too. GFS is similar.

Artane2002

ECM agrees with the above chart, although the high is centred further west.

Artane2002

The GFS is still going for record breaking October high pressure for Monday. The UKMO calmed down a bit, it is close to breaking the record but maybe not quite there yet.

Meteorite58

Milder air replaced by cold arctic air from Fri.

Meteorite58

Fresh day in store with plenty of showers of a convective nature with the risk of hail and thunder, more so on coasts. Some heavy showers showing up which could be quite blustery . Very cool up in Northern counties and a considerable windchill across the country.

Meteorite58

Windchill over the next few days

Meteorite58

High ground in N N/W counties getting a dusting into Sat ?

Meteorite58

Turning increasingly wintry tonight and into tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if reports show up of any snowfall, even if it is wet and sloppy

WRF -NMM showing widespread -6C uppers and some -8C .

Very cold in the wind tomorrow.

Best chance of sferics possibly along the E / SE coast it would seem , possibly over the sea. Some chance in the NW also perhaps.

Meteorite58

The majority of the latest runs showing the remnants of Oscar trending to track more off the NW coast. This would keep the strongest winds out to sea.
ECMWF showing the storm deepening as it passes Ireland with center pressure getting as low as 950 hPa. The present ECM run showing windy conditions on coasts but nothing out of the ordinary atm. Wet few days over the weekend . Looking very mild Fri .compared to the last few days , possibly getting up to 14C or so.

Still could alter track so needing monitoring. Will need to keep an eye on rainfall amounts the latter part of the weekend .

Meteorite58

Latest guidance from the NHC shifts the track of what will be ex tropical storm Oscar further away again from Ireland keeping storm force winds well out to sea. Windy along the coasts.

Meteorite58

The GFS 12Z has increased it's wind speeds a bit from the remnants of Oscar Sat evening along the W and NW coasts ( gusting to about 110 km/h or so ), ECM seems to be fairly consistent about 80-100 km/h along W / NW coasts, ICON has brought stronger winds nearer the coast on the latest run. Possibly blustery across parts of the country from about Fri evening to Sat evening.

High Seas.

Obviously a few days away yet and time for changes one way or the other.




NHC

Oscar's winds should gradually
diminish after it becomes extratropical, but the NHC official
forecast remains above the various consensus aids from 36 hours and
beyond and lies closest to the GFS and ECMWF global models, which
should have a good handle on the cyclone's structure during the
post-tropical phase.

Meteorite58

ECM 24hr predicted rainfall up to 09.00 Sat and 24 hr rainfall up to 21.00 Sun

Just for guidance as these charts may well change somewhat over the coming days. Presently looks like a fair amount of rain in the W and SW.

piuswal

no idea where this should go - just for info

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2018/using-cloud-satellite-data-improve-weather-forecasts

Meteorite58

An extended windy spell for coastal areas of the W, NW over the weekend. Breezy if not windy everywhere at times and quite blustery in all coastal areas at times.

Rainfall amounts in general are not as bad as were showing up earlier. Met Eireann talking about uncertainty if the S & E might get heavy rain Sun night / Mon morning.

Getting very mild as Fri goes on and seeing temps in low to mid teens by early Sat. Mild over the weekend .

Big seas off Atlantic coasts over the weekend.

Meteorite58

Some Max wind predictions

Meteorite58

After a cold start rising temperatures all day, will feel unusual after the spell of cold weather.

Meteorite58

24 hr precipitation predictions from the ECMWF up to 13.00 Sat




24 hr precip up until 12.00 Mon




LP to the S of Ireland giving plenty of rain up over Ireland Sun into Mon . ECMWF showing high totals in the S it would seem going by this run.

Meteorite58

Current gust predictions from the WRF -NMM



16C possible tomorrow

Meteorite58

Continues to look very wet in the S, SE ,E Sun into Mon on the ECM 0Z, Not all models showing as much rain

Meteorite58

Tues looking blustery and wet especially along southern counties with the frontal passage. Mild enough 10-13C, clearing to showers in the Western half of the country in the afternoon. Colder airmass moving in from the Atlantic Tues evening with a continuation of showers, possibly hail and sporadic thunder ?

Meteorite58

Potentially disturbed weather coming up next Fri. Hard to know how this will look by Fri due to the complex nature of how the depressions will form and interact with the jet, and possible spin off Lp's . Will be interesting watching the models handle the upcoming spell of unsettled weather. Just on the cusp between this thread and +120hrs , so a fair degree of uncertainty. Worth keeping an eye on.