June 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for June, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during June.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during June (see above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during June.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during June.

6. Bonus question. (same as last year) What will be the heaviest one-day (calendar day) rainfall at any station that regularly reports in the daily weather section of the Met-E website, as confirmed in the Monthly Summary. Give the answer in mm with one decimal place (e.g. 20.5) and also, give a location (no date for the contest points). Points will be 7/10 for amount, 3/10 for location based on 3 points for a correct answer, 2 points if your answer happens to match second highest amount of the month (can be same date) and 1 point for third place. A maximum of 2 superbonus points are available for the winning guess(es) if you have 7+3, and 1 superbonus point if it's 6+3 or 7+2.

Enter by 0300h Friday, June 1st, without penalty, after which it's a 1 point deduction for any portion of 3 hours, to the end of Friday June 2nd, and as this contest was posted a bit late, I will extend that to 0300h Sunday 3rd on this occasion (by then you would be losing 16 points), then after that time the penalties increase to 1 point per hour late. Any bonus answers in late entries based on reported data will be capped at 5+1 points.

Good luck!

Here's mine (partly to help with the template)

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 __ 50.2 Cork

NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 ???

(would imagine that distribution of heavy rainfalls in June is fairly random but less likely to be southeast or far north, will assess NormaL bonus points with some help from you perhaps).

Artane2002

Artane2002 ____ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 38.2 Valentia

Just realised I made a typo, I meant 110% for sun not 130.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 __ 39.5 Cork Airport

sdanseo

sdanseo____ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 __ 40.1 Gurteen

pauldry

pauldry____ 14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5_ 115_ 108__ 35.3 Mullingar

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________ 15.2_ 27.8_ 2.5 _ 85 _ 105 __ 45 Ballyhaise.

The bonus question is a complete guess. I think the wettest weather is likely to come from a severe thunder shower and it most likely happen in the north midlands.

sunflower3

Sunflower3____ 14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5_ 105_ 95__ 43.3 Mullingar

JCX BXC

JCXBXC ____ 15.4 _ 28.4_ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 __ 22.2 Cork

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 90 _ 115 __ 36.5 Gurteen

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 __ 30.5 Mullingar

Lumi

Lumi ____ 14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 92 _ 115 __ 40.01 Sherkin Island

Bsal

Bsal _________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 91 _ 117 __ 38.0 Mullingar

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________ 14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 __ 35.2 Shannon

waterways

waterways _________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 95 __ 45.0 Valentia

Rikand

Rikand ___ 15.0 ___ 28.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 50.0 Mt. Dillon


I've decided to bank the points hit this month, get a 1 day leeway for next month

mrskinner

Skinner ______14.4_____26.2____3.0____105____100____32.1 Valentia

rameire

Rameire____ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 35.6 Oak Park

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 35.2 Johnstown Castle

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 __ 41.0 Belmullet

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7____ 15.3 _ 30.0_ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 __ 63.3 Oak Park

John mac

JOhn mac ____ 13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 __ 42.5 newport

cant believe i forgot :eek:

kindredspirit

Ooops! Forgot. Thanks for reminding me, Waterways.

Kindred Spirit ___ 14.6 ___27.5 ___ 2.0 ___ 80 ___ 120 ___ 44 Valencia.

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 __ 46.9 Dublin Airport

June came fast!

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for June 2018

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain (24h) _ loc'n

200motels ___ (-13) ____ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 ____ 32.1 __ Johnstown Castle
mickger844posts _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 35.2 __ Johnstown Castle
JCXBXC _______________15.4 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 22.2 __ Cork
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.3 _ 30.0 _ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 63.3 __ Oak Park
Jpmarn _______________15.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 45.0 __ Ballyhaise
Joe Public ___ (-3) ______15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 ____ 46.9 __ Dublin Airport
Rikand _______________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 50.0 __ Mt. Dillon
sryanbruen ____________14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 39.5 __ Cork
pauldry _______________14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 108 ____ 35.3 __ Mullingar
M.T. Cranium __________14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 50.2 __ Cork
sdanseo ______________ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 ____ 40.1 __ Gurteen
waterways ____________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 095 ____ 45.0 __ Valentia

Con Sensus ___________ 14.7 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 39.8 __ (Mul,Val 3pts; Gur,Cork,OP, JC 2pts; sev'l 1pt)

Tae laidir _____________ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 36.5 __ Gurteen
Sunflower3 ____________14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 43.3 __ Mullingar
Lumi _________________14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 092 _ 115 ____ 40.01 _ Sherkin Island
Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 ____ 41.0 __ Belmullet
Artane2002 ___________ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 38.2 __ Valentia
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 14.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 44.0 __ Valentia.
Rameire ______________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.6 __ Oak Park
Bsal _________________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 091 _ 117 ____ 38.0 __ Mullingar
MrSkinner ____________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 32.1 __ Valentia
DOCARCH _____________14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.2 __ Shannon
Dasa29 _______________14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 ____ 30.5 __ Mullingar
John mac __ (-1) _______13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 42.5 __ Newport

NormaL ______________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 40.0 __ see text below
________________________________________________________________________

We will all need help if this turns out to be a cool month, but with the start we are promised, no surprise in the forecast trend.
200motels may be along later, so with 23 forecasts so far (and NormaL), Con Sensus currently 12th ranked would then become mean of 12th and 13th ranked.

ConSensus max rain locations are scored from your first and second (for max points) and third to sixth (for two points), any other chosen (for one point) of the most popular choices. If the max rain is not at any of our choices, Con gets zero, we are scored by how high our choices finish and nobody gets three points in that event (some will get 2 and some will get 1). Otherwise, we are scored by the rank our station attains (once somebody or multiple forecasts hit the right one for three points) The overall tally of choices so far is ...

Mullingar __ 4
Valentia ___ 4

---

Con gets 3 if above verify
Cork ______ 3
Gurteen ___ 2
Oak Park ___2
Johnstown C_2

---

Con gets 2 if above verify

and these chosen by one only --
Dublin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Sherkin Island, Shannon, Newport, Mountdillon.

(Con gets 1 if one of these is right)

no forecasts mention --
Casement, Athenry, Claremorris, Knock, Mace Head, Malin Head, Roches Point, Finner Camp, Markree, Dunsany, PPark, Moorepark

(Con gets zero if one of these has the maximum rainfall, and we can only get two points out of three at most)

Normal will get the same location score as Con, on the assumption that as a group we have some inside knowledge, although I will give NormaL one point if Moorepark, Claremorris, Knock, Casement or Dunsany verifies.

M.T. Cranium

And they're off ... Moore Park with 20.9 mm got under a cell yesterday. (2nd 15.1 Mullingar, 3rd 13.1 Mountdillon).

IMT on first was 17.7 C.

MAX was 25.0 (Mountdillon)

MIN was 10.0 (Dublin)

PRC over the contest grid was 31.7 mm (about 150% of normal if we use 2 mm as an approx normal).

SUN over the contest grid was 6.9h (about 21% of normal using 5.5h per location as an approx normal).

I will continue to update these stats although MAX and MIN just when broken and 24h rainfall new contenders for 1st, 2nd, 3rd overall.

200motels

200motels 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 __ 32.1 Johnstown Castle

Late completely forgot.

M.T. Cranium

IMT on 16.7 now after 2nd averaged 15.6.

No new max or min as extremes for the day were 21.3 and 10.2.

No new contenders for 24h rainfall with Ballyhaise at 6.4 mm.

14.3 mm rain over contest grid is about 65% of normal, running average now 108%.

SUN had another poor showing (total 9.2 h) of about 28% and the monthly average is now just 25% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

IMT on 16.8 after 3rd averaged 16.6

No new max (22.6 the top temp) but a new MIN of 7.5 at Dublin (A).

No new contenders for 24h rainfall (heaviest was 3.7 mm at Mace Head).

Rainfall for contest grid only 0.5 mm, for the day about 2% and now for June about 73%.

SUN improved with 45.1 hours, about 137% so that the month is now up to 62%.

Tae laidir

Claremorris 23.4 and Dublin A 5.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

IMT still riding high at 16.6 after 4th averaged 16.2

MAX remains 25.0 with yesterday's top temp of 23.4

MIN now 5.6 (Dublin A 4th)

no new contenders for 24h max rainfall, yesterday's max was a mere 1.6 mm at Ballyhaise.

PRC has fallen to about 55% for June, the grid only managed 1.7 mm on 4th.

SUN meanwhile has risen to 90% for the month with yesterday's 61.1 hours almost twice normal.

M.T. Cranium

IMT slipped fractionally on 5th but remains on 16.6.

No new contenders for MAX, MIN or 24h rainfall.

PRC very low, about 5% for the day (1 mm) and now sits around 45%.

SUN near normal for the day (33.3h) which produces an average of 92% to date.

(was a bit late getting to this daily update and another one may follow within a few hours)

M.T. Cranium

So after six days, the IMT remains 16.6, with a similar daily outcome again.

There's a new MAX (25.1 at Newport) and the daily minimum of 5.7 at Dublin missed by 0.1 so that remains 5.6.

Rain entirely missed the grid so PRC has fallen to 37% for the month.

SUN is now above normal, the 6th managed 59.2 hours which is about 180%, the monthly average now 107%.

sryanbruen

25.8c at Mt. Dillon, 25.7c at Newport and 26.1c at Shannon Airport on the 7th.

M.T. Cranium

After seven days ...

IMT now on 16.7 (3.9 above normal) with the 7th daily value 17.5 ... Shannon has a particularly warm mean so far, 18.3 C on "monthly data" and 18.4 on daily ag report, not sure why any difference.

MAX as noted above has increased to 26.1 (Shannon, 7th).

MIN remains 5.6 with the lowest yesterday being 6.3 C (at Dublin).

PRC is now down to 29% after just Ballyhaise in the eleven-station grid picked up rain (5.4 mm); Mountdillon had 7.4 mm but that won't replace any of the current top three all set on the first. Looking at today's radar those are probably all going to be relegated though.

It should be noted that PRC is a blend of several stations with near normal amounts and a larger number at essentially zero rainfall.

Some of my earlier PRC estimates are a bit high as the Ag Report shows a somewhat higher daily average normally than what I was using, something like 2.5 mm instead of 2.0 mm. So if you read back, scale those back by 5-10 per cent.

Tomorrow's update should be interesting and another day of potentially heavy rainfalls at some locations on Saturday.

SUN is currently at 113% (680/600) with another sunny day on 7th managing a total of 55.4 hours (about 170%). My ongoing sunshine estimates are likely more accurate than the PRC but may be a touch high in percentage terms, now that I have the more reliable Ag Report average, my ongoing estimate would have been 116%. So take one or two off those percentages in earlier days.

pauldry

Mt Dillon under a cell 25.5mm

n more possible

Jpmarn

pauldry wrote: »

Mt Dillon under a cell 25.5mm

n more possible

They got a total of 30.8mm of rain from today's thunderstorm.

Rikand

Jpmarn wrote: »

They got a total of 30.8mm of rain from today's thunderstorm.

Yay Mt. Dillon!

M.T. Cranium

IMT on 16.8 C after eight days, the 8th average was 17.8.

MAX and MIN untouched, the range on 8th was 8.5 to 25.0

New maximum 24h rain for bonus question, 30.9 mm at Mountdillon. This pushes Moorepark (20.9 on 1st) into second place with Mullingar (15.1 also on first) third. The second highest value yesterday was 7.4 mm at Gurteen.

PRC in the contest grid was 4 mm, about 15% of normal and the monthly average has now fallen to 27% of normal.

SUN meanwhile has moved up to 123% for the month, with the 8th recording 63.1 hours at six locations for nearly twice normal (195%).

M.T. Cranium

After nine days, the IMT is still 16.8 (16.84 now) with the 9th at 16.9 C.

No new max or min, the range was 7.9 to 24.3 C.

No contenders for 24h rainfall, the only significant amount was 2.4 mm at Moore Park.

With almost zero rain in the contest grid, the monthly average is now down to 24% of normal.

It was quite sunny again although Belmullet was socked in by low cloud, so the total of 58.3 hours brought the SUN average up to 128% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

IMT fell slightly to 16.7 after ten days, the tenth averaged 15.4.

No new Max or min, the range was 21.8 to 8.5.

No rain anywhere except for 0.1 mm at Knock, so PRC is now down to 22% for the month.

Not as sunny in general, 26.5 hours or about 80% of normal, leaving the month at 123% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

IMT after eleven days at 16.6, the 11th averaged 15.7 C.

MAX (26.3) and MIN (5.6) unchanged, the range only 19.9 to 8.2.

Very little rainfall again, 1.1 mm in the contest grid, 4% of normal, bringing the month to 20%.

Also a rather cloudy day with a total of 12.1 hours, about 36% of normal, dragging the monthly average down to 115% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

IMT continues to drift down, now at 16.3 C (after 12 days) ... the 12th average was 13.5 C.

No pressure on MAX or MIN from a range of 18.5 to 7.4 C.

Only very small amounts of rain again, PRC is now down to 18% (but climbing during today).

SUN managed 19.4 hours, about 58% of normal, and that has the monthly average down to 110% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

After 13 days, the IMT is 16.1 and the 13th averaged 13.1.

We have a new MIN of 5.4 (Markree) and the max for the day was 18.7 C (month remains 26.3).

The highest daily rainfall of 14.8 mm at Valentia was not quite enough to overtake current third place 15.1 (Mullingar) for the bonus question.

However, the grid received 51.9 mm of rain which is almost twice a normal daily amount so that monthly PRC has jumped up to 31%.

SUN was only 0.8 hours, a mere 3% of normal and that drops the monthly average to 102%.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.9, the second week average was 15.1, 1.7 above normal. The 14th alone averaged 13.8.

MAX remains 26.1 (for a few days I have been saying 26.3 but that seems to be wrong looking back). MIN stays 5.4. The range yesterday was 20.3 to 8.1.

PRC is on 32% with this past week at 34%. On the 14th, 11.5 mm in the grid or about 40% of normal.

No new contenders for 24h max rain, the heaviest fall being 5.6 mm at Finner on the 14th.

SUN is now at 106% with the second week average 99% (594/600). The total on the 14th was 50.4 hours which is about 150% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

After fifteen days, IMT on 15.7, the mean on 15th being 12.7.

MAX and MIN unthreatened by the range of 17.6 to 7.9 C.

24h rainfall top three unchanged with the highest reading on 15th being 7.4 mm at Newport. Rain after midnight in central counties might show up in the next update for today.

PRC now 36% after the grid received an almost normal 24.5 mm (90%).

SUN now close to 100% of normal after a rather dull day with 7.6 hours (only 23%).

M.T. Cranium

The slow decline of the IMT continues, now on 15.6, the 16th averaged 13.4 C.

MAX and MIN remain 26.1 and 5.4, with the range on 16th being 18.4 to 8.1 C.

No new contenders for 24h max rainfall, the heaviest on 16th was 8.8 mm at Malin Head.

PRC now at 45% with 48.5 mm falling in the contest grid, about 180% of normal for any given day.

SUN still rounding off at 100% as the 16th managed 30.2h, about 90% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

After 17 days, the IMT is on 15.5 with the 17th managing 14.3 C.

MAX and MIN remain unchanged with the range yesterday 9.1 to 20.3 C.

The heaviest 24h rainfall of 6.2 mm at Valentia changes nothing for the bonus.

Total rainfall in the grid of 16.7 mm is about 60% of a normal daily ration and brings the month up slightly to 46%.

There was only 11 hours of sunshine, mostly in the southwest, and this brings our monthly average down to 96% of normal.

Just looking at forecasts, we are still all outside the range of MAX and MIN, although MrSkinner at 26.2 just slightly so, the warmest MIN forecasts were 4.5. The lowest PRC forecast was 80% and from the look of recent model runs we would be hard pressed to get there from the current value. Our general thinking on sunshine may work out fairly well. For the bonus, the majority had been expecting a heavier fall than the current contender (30.9 mm) and here again, opportunities look few but we shall see.

pauldry

tomorrow might bring a top 3 contender to rainfall.

Malin Head 25mm or Finner 22mm? perhaps

JCX BXC

We didn't preform particularly great with June as a group did we

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

We didn't preform particularly great with June as a group did we

I originally went for 70% precipitation but then when I saw you all going for above average, I felt alone and wanted to join in.

M.T. Cranium

After 18 days, the IMT now on 15.4, with the 18th setting a mean of 13.7 C.

MAX and MIN remain 26.1 and 5.4, the range yesterday was 21.4 and 7.9 C.

24h max rainfall contest unaltered, the wettest on 18th was only 2.0 mm at Valentia.

PRC was only 3.6 mm in the grid, about 14% of normal. That drops the month back to 44% of normal.

SUN was only 11.3 hours, about 32% of normal. That pushes the monthly average down to 92%.