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June 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-05-2018 7:42am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for June, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during June.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during June (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during June.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during June.

    6. Bonus question. (same as last year) What will be the heaviest one-day (calendar day) rainfall at any station that regularly reports in the daily weather section of the Met-E website, as confirmed in the Monthly Summary. Give the answer in mm with one decimal place (e.g. 20.5) and also, give a location (no date for the contest points). Points will be 7/10 for amount, 3/10 for location based on 3 points for a correct answer, 2 points if your answer happens to match second highest amount of the month (can be same date) and 1 point for third place. A maximum of 2 superbonus points are available for the winning guess(es) if you have 7+3, and 1 superbonus point if it's 6+3 or 7+2.

    Enter by 0300h Friday, June 1st, without penalty, after which it's a 1 point deduction for any portion of 3 hours, to the end of Friday June 2nd, and as this contest was posted a bit late, I will extend that to 0300h Sunday 3rd on this occasion (by then you would be losing 16 points), then after that time the penalties increase to 1 point per hour late. Any bonus answers in late entries based on reported data will be capped at 5+1 points.

    Good luck!

    Here's mine (partly to help with the template)

    M.T. Cranium ____ 14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 __ 50.2 Cork

    NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 ???

    (would imagine that distribution of heavy rainfalls in June is fairly random but less likely to be southeast or far north, will assess NormaL bonus points with some help from you perhaps).


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 38.2 Valentia

    Just realised I made a typo, I meant 110% for sun not 130.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 __ 39.5 Cork Airport

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo____ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 __ 40.1 Gurteen


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry____ 14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5_ 115_ 108__ 35.3 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _________ 15.2_ 27.8_ 2.5 _ 85 _ 105 __ 45 Ballyhaise.

    The bonus question is a complete guess. I think the wettest weather is likely to come from a severe thunder shower and it most likely happen in the north midlands.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3____ 14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5_ 105_ 95__ 43.3 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC ____ 15.4 _ 28.4_ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 __ 22.2 Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 90 _ 115 __ 36.5 Gurteen


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 __ 30.5 Mullingar


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____ 14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 92 _ 115 __ 40.01 Sherkin Island


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 91 _ 117 __ 38.0 Mullingar


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _________ 14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 __ 35.2 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 95 __ 45.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 15.0 ___ 28.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 50.0 Mt. Dillon


    I've decided to bank the points hit this month, get a 1 day leeway for next month


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner ______14.4_____26.2____3.0____105____100____32.1 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire____ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 35.6 Oak Park


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ____ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 35.2 Johnstown Castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 __ 41.0 Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7____ 15.3 _ 30.0_ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 __ 63.3 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    JOhn mac ____ 13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 __ 42.5 newport

    cant believe i forgot :eek:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Ooops! Forgot. :( Thanks for reminding me, Waterways. :):)

    Kindred Spirit ___ 14.6 ___27.5 ___ 2.0 ___ 80 ___ 120 ___ 44 Valencia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 __ 46.9 Dublin Airport

    June came fast!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2018

    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain (24h) _ loc'n

    200motels ___ (-13) ____ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 ____ 32.1 __ Johnstown Castle
    mickger844posts _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 35.2 __ Johnstown Castle
    JCXBXC _______________15.4 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 22.2 __ Cork
    BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.3 _ 30.0 _ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 63.3 __ Oak Park
    Jpmarn _______________15.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 45.0 __ Ballyhaise
    Joe Public ___ (-3) ______15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 ____ 46.9 __ Dublin Airport
    Rikand _______________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 50.0 __ Mt. Dillon
    sryanbruen ____________14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 39.5 __ Cork
    pauldry _______________14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 108 ____ 35.3 __ Mullingar
    M.T. Cranium __________14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 50.2 __ Cork
    sdanseo ______________ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 ____ 40.1 __ Gurteen
    waterways ____________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 095 ____ 45.0 __ Valentia

    Con Sensus ___________ 14.7 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 39.8 __ (Mul,Val 3pts; Gur,Cork,OP, JC 2pts; sev'l 1pt)

    Tae laidir _____________ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 36.5 __ Gurteen
    Sunflower3 ____________14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 43.3 __ Mullingar
    Lumi _________________14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 092 _ 115 ____ 40.01 _ Sherkin Island
    Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 ____ 41.0 __ Belmullet
    Artane2002 ___________ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 38.2 __ Valentia
    Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 14.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 44.0 __ Valentia.
    Rameire ______________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.6 __ Oak Park
    Bsal _________________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 091 _ 117 ____ 38.0 __ Mullingar
    MrSkinner ____________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 32.1 __ Valentia
    DOCARCH _____________14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.2 __ Shannon
    Dasa29 _______________14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 ____ 30.5 __ Mullingar
    John mac __ (-1) _______13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 42.5 __ Newport

    NormaL ______________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 40.0 __ see text below
    ________________________________________________________________________

    We will all need help if this turns out to be a cool month, but with the start we are promised, no surprise in the forecast trend.
    200motels may be along later, so with 23 forecasts so far (and NormaL), Con Sensus currently 12th ranked would then become mean of 12th and 13th ranked.

    ConSensus max rain locations are scored from your first and second (for max points) and third to sixth (for two points), any other chosen (for one point) of the most popular choices. If the max rain is not at any of our choices, Con gets zero, we are scored by how high our choices finish and nobody gets three points in that event (some will get 2 and some will get 1). Otherwise, we are scored by the rank our station attains (once somebody or multiple forecasts hit the right one for three points) The overall tally of choices so far is ...

    Mullingar __ 4
    Valentia ___ 4
    Con gets 3 if above verify
    Cork ______ 3
    Gurteen ___ 2
    Oak Park ___2
    Johnstown C_2
    Con gets 2 if above verify

    and these chosen by one only --
    Dublin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Sherkin Island, Shannon, Newport, Mountdillon.

    (Con gets 1 if one of these is right)

    no forecasts mention --
    Casement, Athenry, Claremorris, Knock, Mace Head, Malin Head, Roches Point, Finner Camp, Markree, Dunsany, PPark, Moorepark

    (Con gets zero if one of these has the maximum rainfall, and we can only get two points out of three at most)

    Normal will get the same location score as Con, on the assumption that as a group we have some inside knowledge, although I will give NormaL one point if Moorepark, Claremorris, Knock, Casement or Dunsany verifies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    And they're off ... Moore Park with 20.9 mm got under a cell yesterday. (2nd 15.1 Mullingar, 3rd 13.1 Mountdillon).

    IMT on first was 17.7 C.

    MAX was 25.0 (Mountdillon)

    MIN was 10.0 (Dublin)

    PRC over the contest grid was 31.7 mm (about 150% of normal if we use 2 mm as an approx normal).

    SUN over the contest grid was 6.9h (about 21% of normal using 5.5h per location as an approx normal).

    I will continue to update these stats although MAX and MIN just when broken and 24h rainfall new contenders for 1st, 2nd, 3rd overall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 __ 32.1 Johnstown Castle

    Late completely forgot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    IMT on 16.7 now after 2nd averaged 15.6.

    No new max or min as extremes for the day were 21.3 and 10.2.

    No new contenders for 24h rainfall with Ballyhaise at 6.4 mm.

    14.3 mm rain over contest grid is about 65% of normal, running average now 108%.

    SUN had another poor showing (total 9.2 h) of about 28% and the monthly average is now just 25% of normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    IMT on 16.8 after 3rd averaged 16.6

    No new max (22.6 the top temp) but a new MIN of 7.5 at Dublin (A).

    No new contenders for 24h rainfall (heaviest was 3.7 mm at Mace Head).

    Rainfall for contest grid only 0.5 mm, for the day about 2% and now for June about 73%.

    SUN improved with 45.1 hours, about 137% so that the month is now up to 62%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Claremorris 23.4 and Dublin A 5.6 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    IMT still riding high at 16.6 after 4th averaged 16.2

    MAX remains 25.0 with yesterday's top temp of 23.4

    MIN now 5.6 (Dublin A 4th)

    no new contenders for 24h max rainfall, yesterday's max was a mere 1.6 mm at Ballyhaise.

    PRC has fallen to about 55% for June, the grid only managed 1.7 mm on 4th.

    SUN meanwhile has risen to 90% for the month with yesterday's 61.1 hours almost twice normal.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    IMT slipped fractionally on 5th but remains on 16.6.

    No new contenders for MAX, MIN or 24h rainfall.

    PRC very low, about 5% for the day (1 mm) and now sits around 45%.

    SUN near normal for the day (33.3h) which produces an average of 92% to date.

    (was a bit late getting to this daily update and another one may follow within a few hours)


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