June 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2018 7:42am #1

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for June, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during June.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during June (see above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during June.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during June.

6. Bonus question. (same as last year) What will be the heaviest one-day (calendar day) rainfall at any station that regularly reports in the daily weather section of the Met-E website, as confirmed in the Monthly Summary. Give the answer in mm with one decimal place (e.g. 20.5) and also, give a location (no date for the contest points). Points will be 7/10 for amount, 3/10 for location based on 3 points for a correct answer, 2 points if your answer happens to match second highest amount of the month (can be same date) and 1 point for third place. A maximum of 2 superbonus points are available for the winning guess(es) if you have 7+3, and 1 superbonus point if it's 6+3 or 7+2.

Enter by 0300h Friday, June 1st, without penalty, after which it's a 1 point deduction for any portion of 3 hours, to the end of Friday June 2nd, and as this contest was posted a bit late, I will extend that to 0300h Sunday 3rd on this occasion (by then you would be losing 16 points), then after that time the penalties increase to 1 point per hour late. Any bonus answers in late entries based on reported data will be capped at 5+1 points.

Good luck!

Here's mine (partly to help with the template)

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 __ 50.2 Cork

NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 ???

(would imagine that distribution of heavy rainfalls in June is fairly random but less likely to be southeast or far north, will assess NormaL bonus points with some help from you perhaps).

Artane2002 · 30-05-2018 8:01am

Artane2002 ____ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 38.2 Valentia

Just realised I made a typo, I meant 110% for sun not 130.

sryanbruen · 30-05-2018 1:45pm

sryanbruen ____ 14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 __ 39.5 Cork Airport

sdanseo · 30-05-2018 8:13pm

sdanseo____ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 __ 40.1 Gurteen

pauldry · 30-05-2018 11:40pm

pauldry____ 14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5_ 115_ 108__ 35.3 Mullingar

Jpmarn · 31-05-2018 8:26am

Jpmarn _________ 15.2_ 27.8_ 2.5 _ 85 _ 105 __ 45 Ballyhaise.

The bonus question is a complete guess. I think the wettest weather is likely to come from a severe thunder shower and it most likely happen in the north midlands.

sunflower3 · 31-05-2018 10:24am

Sunflower3____ 14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5_ 105_ 95__ 43.3 Mullingar

JCX BXC · 31-05-2018 10:32am

JCXBXC ____ 15.4 _ 28.4_ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 __ 22.2 Cork

Tae laidir · 31-05-2018 10:42am

Tae laidir ____ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 90 _ 115 __ 36.5 Gurteen

dasa29 · 31-05-2018 4:15pm

Dasa29 ____ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 __ 30.5 Mullingar

Lumi · 31-05-2018 5:13pm

Lumi ____ 14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 92 _ 115 __ 40.01 Sherkin Island

Bsal · 31-05-2018 6:43pm

Bsal _________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 91 _ 117 __ 38.0 Mullingar

DOCARCH · 31-05-2018 6:58pm

DOCARCH _________ 14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 __ 35.2 Shannon

waterways · 31-05-2018 9:02pm

waterways _________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 95 __ 45.0 Valentia

Rikand · 31-05-2018 9:26pm

Rikand ___ 15.0 ___ 28.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 50.0 Mt. Dillon

I've decided to bank the points hit this month, get a 1 day leeway for next month

mrskinner · 31-05-2018 10:24pm

Skinner ______14.4_____26.2____3.0____105____100____32.1 Valentia

rameire · 31-05-2018 10:38pm

Rameire____ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 35.6 Oak Park

mickger844posts · 31-05-2018 10:51pm

mickger844posts ____ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 35.2 Johnstown Castle

dacogawa · 31-05-2018 11:51pm

Dacogawa ____ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 __ 41.0 Belmullet

BLIZZARD7 · 01-06-2018 2:58am

BLIZZARD7____ 15.3 _ 30.0_ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 __ 63.3 Oak Park

John mac · 01-06-2018 6:54am

JOhn mac ____ 13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 __ 42.5 newport

cant believe i forgot :eek:

kindredspirit · 01-06-2018 9:17am

Ooops! Forgot.

Thanks for reminding me, Waterways.

Kindred Spirit ___ 14.6 ___27.5 ___ 2.0 ___ 80 ___ 120 ___ 44 Valencia.

Joe Public · 01-06-2018 11:03am

Joe Public ____ 15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 __ 46.9 Dublin Airport

June came fast!

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2018 12:59am

Table of forecasts for June 2018

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain (24h) _ loc'n

200motels ___ (-13) ____ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 ____ 32.1 __ Johnstown Castle
mickger844posts _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 3.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 35.2 __ Johnstown Castle
JCXBXC _______________15.4 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 22.2 __ Cork
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.3 _ 30.0 _ 0.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 63.3 __ Oak Park
Jpmarn _______________15.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 45.0 __ Ballyhaise
Joe Public ___ (-3) ______15.1 _ 29.9 _ 2.3 _ 109 _ 140 ____ 46.9 __ Dublin Airport
Rikand _______________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 50.0 __ Mt. Dillon
sryanbruen ____________14.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 39.5 __ Cork
pauldry _______________14.8 _ 28.6 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 108 ____ 35.3 __ Mullingar
M.T. Cranium __________14.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 50.2 __ Cork
sdanseo ______________ 14.7 _ 29.6 _ 2.2 _ 108 _ 115 ____ 40.1 __ Gurteen
waterways ____________ 14.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.5 _ 118 _ 095 ____ 45.0 __ Valentia

Con Sensus ___________ 14.7 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 39.8 __ (Mul,Val 3pts; Gur,Cork,OP, JC 2pts; sev'l 1pt)

Tae laidir _____________ 14.7 _ 27.7 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 36.5 __ Gurteen
Sunflower3 ____________14.6 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 43.3 __ Mullingar
Lumi _________________14.6 _ 29.0 _ 3.3 _ 092 _ 115 ____ 40.01 _ Sherkin Island
Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.5 _ 2.2 _ 129 _ 107 ____ 41.0 __ Belmullet
Artane2002 ___________ 14.6 _ 28.2 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 38.2 __ Valentia
Kindred Spirit __ (-2) ___ 14.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 44.0 __ Valentia.
Rameire ______________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.6 __ Oak Park
Bsal _________________ 14.4 _ 27.1 _ 4.5 _ 091 _ 117 ____ 38.0 __ Mullingar
MrSkinner ____________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 32.1 __ Valentia
DOCARCH _____________14.2 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 35.2 __ Shannon
Dasa29 _______________14.2 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 140 ____ 30.5 __ Mullingar
John mac __ (-1) _______13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 42.5 __ Newport

NormaL ______________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 40.0 __ see text below
________________________________________________________________________

We will all need help if this turns out to be a cool month, but with the start we are promised, no surprise in the forecast trend.
200motels may be along later, so with 23 forecasts so far (and NormaL), Con Sensus currently 12th ranked would then become mean of 12th and 13th ranked.

ConSensus max rain locations are scored from your first and second (for max points) and third to sixth (for two points), any other chosen (for one point) of the most popular choices. If the max rain is not at any of our choices, Con gets zero, we are scored by how high our choices finish and nobody gets three points in that event (some will get 2 and some will get 1). Otherwise, we are scored by the rank our station attains (once somebody or multiple forecasts hit the right one for three points) The overall tally of choices so far is ...

Mullingar __ 4
Valentia ___ 4

Con gets 3 if above verify
Cork ______ 3
Gurteen ___ 2
Oak Park ___2
Johnstown C_2

Con gets 2 if above verify

and these chosen by one only --
Dublin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Sherkin Island, Shannon, Newport, Mountdillon.

(Con gets 1 if one of these is right)

no forecasts mention --
Casement, Athenry, Claremorris, Knock, Mace Head, Malin Head, Roches Point, Finner Camp, Markree, Dunsany, PPark, Moorepark

(Con gets zero if one of these has the maximum rainfall, and we can only get two points out of three at most)

Normal will get the same location score as Con, on the assumption that as a group we have some inside knowledge, although I will give NormaL one point if Moorepark, Claremorris, Knock, Casement or Dunsany verifies.

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2018 5:23pm

And they're off ... Moore Park with 20.9 mm got under a cell yesterday. (2nd 15.1 Mullingar, 3rd 13.1 Mountdillon).

IMT on first was 17.7 C.

MAX was 25.0 (Mountdillon)

MIN was 10.0 (Dublin)

PRC over the contest grid was 31.7 mm (about 150% of normal if we use 2 mm as an approx normal).

SUN over the contest grid was 6.9h (about 21% of normal using 5.5h per location as an approx normal).

I will continue to update these stats although MAX and MIN just when broken and 24h rainfall new contenders for 1st, 2nd, 3rd overall.

200motels · 02-06-2018 10:53pm

200motels 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 108 __ 32.1 Johnstown Castle

Late completely forgot.

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2018 5:09pm

IMT on 16.7 now after 2nd averaged 15.6.

No new max or min as extremes for the day were 21.3 and 10.2.

No new contenders for 24h rainfall with Ballyhaise at 6.4 mm.

14.3 mm rain over contest grid is about 65% of normal, running average now 108%.

SUN had another poor showing (total 9.2 h) of about 28% and the monthly average is now just 25% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2018 4:03pm

IMT on 16.8 after 3rd averaged 16.6

No new max (22.6 the top temp) but a new MIN of 7.5 at Dublin (A).

No new contenders for 24h rainfall (heaviest was 3.7 mm at Mace Head).

Rainfall for contest grid only 0.5 mm, for the day about 2% and now for June about 73%.

SUN improved with 45.1 hours, about 137% so that the month is now up to 62%.

Tae laidir · 05-06-2018 12:40pm

Claremorris 23.4 and Dublin A 5.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2018 4:35pm

IMT still riding high at 16.6 after 4th averaged 16.2

MAX remains 25.0 with yesterday's top temp of 23.4

MIN now 5.6 (Dublin A 4th)

no new contenders for 24h max rainfall, yesterday's max was a mere 1.6 mm at Ballyhaise.

PRC has fallen to about 55% for June, the grid only managed 1.7 mm on 4th.

SUN meanwhile has risen to 90% for the month with yesterday's 61.1 hours almost twice normal.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2018 7:23am

IMT slipped fractionally on 5th but remains on 16.6.

No new contenders for MAX, MIN or 24h rainfall.

PRC very low, about 5% for the day (1 mm) and now sits around 45%.

SUN near normal for the day (33.3h) which produces an average of 92% to date.

(was a bit late getting to this daily update and another one may follow within a few hours)

June 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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