The Curragh, Saturday May 26th

PM me nudes

kiers47 wrote: »

I wasn't really talking breeding wise he just doesn't seem to have anything at the business end of things at a mile. He was outstayed today by a horse rated 10lbs inferior who himself hadn't looked the strongest to stay a mile before today.
Was a great ride by Moore I thought. Couldn't have done any better.

Delighted for Ken Condom i think I seen that was his first winner of the season.

kiers47

PM me nudes wrote: »

Haha good spot!! Bloody auto correct!!

Itziger

Apart from the winner they looked like handicappers. Jeez.

FLOOPER

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Alpha Centauri is absolutely massive in the 1000 on ground she will love. She looked top class last year winning her first two and beaten a neck at Ascot before two below par runs on heavy ground. 33s is way off

Brilliant tipping sir. Got a bunch so thanks a bunch.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Gustav Klimt finished the same distance behind today's Irish 2000 winner as he did in the English 2000.
Elarqam finished 7 1/4 lengths behind today, and 2 1/4 lengths behind in the English 2000.
Gustav Klimt (3rd) was beaten today by the horse (U S Navy Flag 2nd) who finished 5th in the French 2000.

Saxon Warrior won by 1 1/2l in the English 2000
Romanised won by 2 1/4l in the Irish 2000
A sensible reading would be that Romanised won by further and beat the horses Saxon Warrior beat by the same and by more.
And you could make a claim that the French 2000 was better than the Irish 2000 based on U S Navy Flag running (or else his running is in and out).

If Elarqam and Gustav Klimt fought out the finish of the Irish 2000 Guineas today lengths ahead of the field people would say that was a pointer to Saxon Warrior superior ability.
When it goes the other way it is not a positive.


Of course this does not slow down Saxon Warrior in the Derby.

But he may not be as stout a stayer as people think.
He hasn't run beyond 8f yet.
His dam only ran once beyond 8f.
His sire, Deep Impact, was passed by two horses at the finish of the 12f Arc, and he was running on prohibited drugs to aid breathing.
His sire, Deep Impact's runners in GB/IRE show signs of not staying.
(look at the 12th and 13th finishers of the 13 runner 14f Queen's Vase 2107, Wisconsin, Fierce Impact. Both are by Deep Impact. It is very discouraging when the last two in a staying race are by the same sire.)

Saxon Warrior 123 rpr English 2,000 Guineas

Romanised 121 rpr, US Navy Flag 116 rpr Irish 2,000 Guineas

Olmedo 115 rpr, US Navy Flag 108 rpr French 2,000 Guineas



Gustav Klimt finished 3 3/4L behind a not revved up Saxon Warrior at Newmarket, he finished 3 1/2L behind the jaw dropping brilliant outsider Romanised at the Curragh. A sensible reading of that would put Saxon Warrior slightly ahead of Romanised, Romanised beat the 106 rated Symbolisation by 7L = 14lb = 120.

As I pointed out before, Saxon Warrior's 2,000 Guineas win was never a big deal on the ratings with a 50/1 shot Tip Two Win close up, it was always his prep race for the Derby.

Also Romanised was awesome yesterday, what's your take on his extraordinary improvement?

Elarqam very obviously didn't run up to his Newmarket form, so you can scratch him from calculations of how good the Irish 2,000 was. Also connections of US Navy Flag were sure that if he hadn't stumbled in France " Led, stumbled badly under 3f from home, virtually joined 2 1/2f out, niggled along 1 1/2f out, headed over 1f out, faded final 125yds " that he would have gone close to winning there. That's why they turned him out again so soon after the French Guineas. Us Navy Flag is on course to keep improving throughout the year just like his sister Roly Poly did.


As regards Saxon Warrior staying the Derby trip. We won't know whether he stays or not unless he obviously runs out of stamina over 12f, his Dosage Index of 0.87 almost guarantees that he'll stay. He ran three times as a Juvenile, all over a mile where he never showed the slightest lack of stamina. He was being prepared for the Derby from the Juvenile stage on. The only weakness that I see in his pedigree is in the dam Maybe, a Galileo filly who finished 3 3/4L 5th in the Oaks but she comes from a family that outstays their own pedigrees.

I agree that Deep Impact is an unknown stamina influence as regards European racing, his stock have an average winning distance of 10.1f. The fact that 2 Deep Impacts finished joint last in the Queen's Vase also shows that their trainers judged them to be stout stayers. One of those, Wisconsin ran an extraordinary race when steering problems left him running out wide on his own covering a huge amount of extra ground and only giving up the lead a furlong from home.

abarkie

Out if interest, did anyone go?

Has the refurbishment / improvements been completed?

If so, is it any good now?

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

Saxon Warrior 123 rpr English 2,000 Guineas

Romanised 121 rpr, US Navy Flag 116 rpr Irish 2,000 Guineas

Olmedo 115 rpr, US Navy Flag 108 rpr French 2,000 Guineas



Gustav Klimt finished 3 3/4L behind a not revved up Saxon Warrior at Newmarket, he finished 3 1/2L behind the jaw dropping brilliant outsider Romanised at the Curragh. A sensible reading of that would put Saxon Warrior slightly ahead of Romanised, Romanised beat the 106 rated Symbolisation by 7L = 14lb = 120.

As I pointed out before, Saxon Warrior's 2,000 Guineas win was never a big deal on the ratings with a 50/1 shot Tip Two Win close up, it was always his prep race for the Derby.

Also Romanised was awesome yesterday, what's your take on his extraordinary improvement?

Elarqam very obviously didn't run up to his Newmarket form, so you can scratch him from calculations of how good the Irish 2,000 was. Also connections of US Navy Flag were sure that if he hadn't stumbled in France " Led, stumbled badly under 3f from home, virtually joined 2 1/2f out, niggled along 1 1/2f out, headed over 1f out, faded final 125yds " that he would have gone close to winning there. That's why they turned him out again so soon after the French Guineas. Us Navy Flag is on course to keep improving throughout the year just like his sister Roly Poly did.


As regards Saxon Warrior staying the Derby trip. We won't know whether he stays or not unless he obviously runs out of stamina over 12f, his Dosage Index of 0.87 almost guarantees that he'll stay. He ran three times as a Juvenile, all over a mile where he never showed the slightest lack of stamina. He was being prepared for the Derby from the Juvenile stage on. The only weakness that I see in his pedigree is in the dam Maybe, a Galileo filly who finished 3 3/4L 5th in the Oaks but she comes from a family that outstays their own pedigrees.

I agree that Deep Impact is an unknown stamina influence as regards European racing, his stock have an average winning distance of 10.1f. The fact that 2 Deep Impacts finished joint last in the Queen's Vase also shows that their trainers judged them to be stout stayers. One of those, Wisconsin ran an extraordinary race when steering problems left him running out wide on his own covering a huge amount of extra ground and only giving up the lead a furlong from home.

Romanised 121 rpr, US Navy Flag 116 rpr Irish 2,000 Guineas
Olmedo 115 rpr, US Navy Flag 108 rpr French 2,000 Guineas

" Led, stumbled badly under 3f from home, virtually joined 2 1/2f out, niggled along 1 1/2f out, headed over 1f out, faded final 125yds"
I watched the French 2000 a few times on Youtube and have yet to find where the horse "stumbled".
I even went back and viewed the 3f from home section numerous times and have yet to see anything.
The only explanation I have is it happened somewhere else in the race.

I am not a fan of handicappers bumping up (or down) horses to try and explain races.
Here they are putting U S Navy Flag up in ratings (a notoriously inconsistent horse) to explain the race.


Also Romanised was awesome yesterday, what's your take on his extraordinary improvement?
Who said he made extraordinary improvement? I didn't.
The 6f Group 2 race before the 2000 Guineas was run 0.42 over standard, then the 2000 Guineas was 1.93 over standard, followed by an 8f fillies/mares Group 2 run 2.24s over standard.
Nothing exceptional there. Perhaps a good horse beat poor horses.
I hope you noticed that Conclusion by Deep Impact finished 10th of 10 in the 10f Group 3 Gallinule Stakes at The Curragh on Sunday.


You mention that the average winning distance of Deep Impact progeny is 10.1 furlongs.
If you know anything about horse statistics you will know that they are as close to useless as you can get.

The AWD (average winning distance) is, as far as I know, the average for wins as three years old and older.
You and I now know what others do not know i.e. the numbers behind Deep Impact's 10.1f AWD (see my calculation below).

Will this fill you with confidence that Deep Impact's son, Saxon Warrior. will get the Derby 12f distance?
He may get the distance if Deep Impact's Japanese racing form transfers to his progeny racing in Europe.
I can not find any stats on the AWD of his Japanese progeny, but I think that would be worthless based on the Japanese style of racing, very different to here.

Horse All Ages 3yo+ Comment
Saxon Warrior 8 (2yo win)
Saxon Warrior 8 (2yo win)
Saxon Warrior 8 (2yo win)
Saxon Warrior 8 8 Group 1
September 7 (2yo win)
September 7 (2yo win)
Pavlenko 7 7 Maiden (5th attempt)
Fierce Impact 8 (2yo win)
Monster Munchie 9.5 9.5 Maiden AW (3rd attempt)
Monster Munchie 9.5 9.5 0-65 AW Handicap
Sunday Bess 10 10 0-75 fillies handicap (10th attempt)
New World Power 12 12 Maiden AW (10th attempt)
Wisconsin 12.5 12.5 3yo maiden
Love Conquers 12.5 12.5 Maiden AW class 5 (6th attempt)

Average distance 9.1 10.1


Comments:
Deep Impact's average winning distance calculation of 10.1f is what you see in the above list.
It is based on 8 wins, 7 of those wins in the lowest of grades.
1 win was a Group 1 race, 5 wins were in 3yo maidens, 2 wins were in handicaps.

If you read the comments on the right you will know that the maiden races were low class.
A 3yo maiden is for horses that failed to win a maiden when they were two years old, and all of the five maiden wins above were as 3yos.
If a horse keeps running in 2yo maidens, then in 3yo maidens, there comes a time when there are only a few horses left who have not won a maiden, and the bar is set very low.
What I get from this analysis is that Deep Impact has one good horse running in GB/IRE from 18 runners.

What the Racing Post miss from their stats are horses like A Shin Hikari, who won the 9f Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan in France.
And Beauty Parlour (GB), rated 119, won four races in France, although they were all 8f.
The RP stats are GB/IRE only.

Dosage Index
The Dosage Index website is no more.
It is not a useful guide to the distance capability of a horse.

Here are a few 5f sprinters that have Dosage Index numbers that suggest they are middle distance horses
Equiano, 5f sprinter, Dosage Index 0.33
Miss Andretti, 5f sprinter, Dosage Index 1.26
Pivotal, 5f sprinter, Dosage Index 1.20


The RP average winning distance stats are for GB/Ire only, and are not a sound foundation for an opinion on Saxon Warrior getting the 12f English Derby distance.
Saxon Warrior could win the English Derby. He is the fastest. I am unsure he will last 12f.

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

Also Romanised was awesome yesterday, what's your take on his extraordinary improvement?

I doubt he improved much, if at all.

A few times on boards.ie I mentioned the very good ride Frankie Dettori gave Blue Bunting when he won the 2011 English 1000 Guineas.
That day at Newmarket there was a strong headwind coming front the front and a bit from the right.
Frankie was drawn 16 of 18, on the right as the field faced down the course.
When the stalls opened Frankie took a pull, brought his horse behind the field, and brought her over to the stands side.
He stayed at the back out of the wind, and late in the race made his run up the left of the field out of the wind.
At the finish he had a fresh horse that had not battled a headwind all the way down the 8 furlongs.

What the hell has this to do with the Irish 2000 Guineas in 2018?
Have I lost my marbles?
On Sunday I did not go to The Curragh, but watched the coverage on RTE.
When I was at The Curragh on Saturday, 2000 Guineas day, I noticed a strong breeze.
Previously they had flags on the stand and it was possible to assess the direction of the breeze and the strength in mph.
This is something you should do automatically when you arrive.
(you can know by looking at a flag the speed i.e. straight out = ?? mph; half out = ?? mph; slightly blowing = ?? mph ... look it up).
When introducing the Sunday coverage Tracey Piggot remarked that "at least they won't have to contend with a headwind today like they did yesterday".

Finally, I am getting to the point.
Watch the 2000 Guineas on Youtube. The race lasted 97 seconds.
Romanised, the winner, stayed behind the field for the first 50 seconds, getting shelter from the headwind (about 60% of the race).
"Slowly into stride and in rear, last halfway, soon pushed along and progress on outer into 5th entering final furlong"
Elarqam, the favourite "Soon close-up and tracked leader in 2nd, pushed along halfway and soon struggling".
My guess is the jockey of the favourite Elarqam ... decided to / was told to ... make use of his stamina.
The trainer had said Elarqam was a 10f horse.
Perhaps the jockey of U S Navy Flag was also following orders.
Somewhat conveniently for Shane Condon, U S Navy Flag also contested the lead most of the way
"Soon led, set strong pace, ridden over 2f out", and was treading water near the finish.

Ok, that is being wise after the event.
It tells me that Romanised might not be a great bet in his next race.

Just like in golf when your putt goes past the hole you should not look to the heavens and ask for an explanation.
You should look at the ball as it rolls past the hole to get the line for the return putt.
You should try to learn a little from the race to use in the future.

Can you ever use wind when betting on a race?
You can in a race at The Curragh when it is a full field on the straight course (~ 30 runners), a headwing, and a part sidewind.
Or you can consider a "come from behind" horse in any race where there is a headwind.

kiers47

In fairness diomed he definitely stumbled on the bend. I havent watched the replay since the day but he took a very bad step from what i remember.
Im not sure it cost him any ground though.

I still think its questionable that he wants a mile. I get it the breeding says it. But sometimes you just have to watch these things with your eyes rather than trust what something else is telling you. He may pick up a handy mile race somewhere but i think he could be better if they dropped him back to 7 or possibly 6. I don't think the St James Palace winner will be coming from that race on Saturday anyway.

The Lost Sheep

abarkie wrote: »

Out if interest, did anyone go?

Has the refurbishment / improvements been completed?

If so, is it any good now?

Works have not been completed.
Was up there for the weekend. New parade ring and saddling areas ready but grand stand is not going to be ready until next year. Grandstand hopefully ready by end of the season.
Was quite happy with most improvements especially with way parade ring is now set up/located.

kiers47

Just on the 48/49 second mark in this video diomed. More a false step than a stumble. Really don't think it affected the finishing position to much though.

https://youtu.be/kkNYtte16LA

abarkie

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

Works have not been completed.
Was up there for the weekend. New parade ring and saddling areas ready but grand stand is not going to be ready until next year. Grandstand hopefully ready by end of the season.
Was quite happy with most improvements especially with way parade ring is now set up/located.

Great, thanks for the reply

So it is next year before it will be completed it seems

It sounded like last year it was a construction site, so a little better it would appear

The Lost Sheep

abarkie wrote: »

Great, thanks for the reply

So it is next year before it will be completed it seems

It sounded like last year it was a construction site, so a little better it would appear

Hoping for more areas to be ready by end of this years racing but all complete for next year.
Much better than last year

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Romanised 121 rpr, US Navy Flag 116 rpr Irish 2,000 Guineas
Olmedo 115 rpr, US Navy Flag 108 rpr French 2,000 Guineas

" Led, stumbled badly under 3f from home, virtually joined 2 1/2f out, niggled along 1 1/2f out, headed over 1f out, faded final 125yds"
I watched the French 2000 a few times on Youtube and have yet to find where the horse "stumbled".
I even went back and viewed the 3f from home section numerous times and have yet to see anything.
The only explanation I have is it happened somewhere else in the race.

I am not a fan of handicappers bumping up (or down) horses to try and explain races.
Here they are putting U S Navy Flag up in ratings (a notoriously inconsistent horse) to explain the race.


Also Romanised was awesome yesterday, what's your take on his extraordinary improvement?
Who said he made extraordinary improvement? I didn't.
The 6f Group 2 race before the 2000 Guineas was run 0.42 over standard, then the 2000 Guineas was 1.93 over standard, followed by an 8f fillies/mares Group 2 run 2.24s over standard.
Nothing exceptional there. Perhaps a good horse beat poor horses.
I hope you noticed that Conclusion by Deep Impact finished 10th of 10 in the 10f Group 3 Gallinule Stakes at The Curragh on Sunday.


You mention that the average winning distance of Deep Impact progeny is 10.1 furlongs.
If you know anything about horse statistics you will know that they are as close to useless as you can get.

The AWD (average winning distance) is, as far as I know, the average for wins as three years old and older.
You and I now know what others do not know i.e. the numbers behind Deep Impact's 10.1f AWD (see my calculation below).

Will this fill you with confidence that Deep Impact's son, Saxon Warrior. will get the Derby 12f distance?
He may get the distance if Deep Impact's Japanese racing form transfers to his progeny racing in Europe.
I can not find any stats on the AWD of his Japanese progeny, but I think that would be worthless based on the Japanese style of racing, very different to here.

Horse All Ages 3yo+ Comment
Saxon Warrior 8 (2yo win)
Saxon Warrior 8 (2yo win)
Saxon Warrior 8 (2yo win)
Saxon Warrior 8 8 Group 1
September 7 (2yo win)
September 7 (2yo win)
Pavlenko 7 7 Maiden (5th attempt)
Fierce Impact 8 (2yo win)
Monster Munchie 9.5 9.5 Maiden AW (3rd attempt)
Monster Munchie 9.5 9.5 0-65 AW Handicap
Sunday Bess 10 10 0-75 fillies handicap (10th attempt)
New World Power 12 12 Maiden AW (10th attempt)
Wisconsin 12.5 12.5 3yo maiden
Love Conquers 12.5 12.5 Maiden AW class 5 (6th attempt)

Average distance 9.1 10.1


Comments:
Deep Impact's average winning distance calculation of 10.1f is what you see in the above list.
It is based on 8 wins, 7 of those wins in the lowest of grades.
1 win was a Group 1 race, 5 wins were in 3yo maidens, 2 wins were in handicaps.

If you read the comments on the right you will know that the maiden races were low class.
A 3yo maiden is for horses that failed to win a maiden when they were two years old, and all of the five maiden wins above were as 3yos.
If a horse keeps running in 2yo maidens, then in 3yo maidens, there comes a time when there are only a few horses left who have not won a maiden, and the bar is set very low.
What I get from this analysis is that Deep Impact has one good horse running in GB/IRE from 18 runners.

What the Racing Post miss from their stats are horses like A Shin Hikari, who won the 9f Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan in France.
And Beauty Parlour (GB), rated 119, won four races in France, although they were all 8f.
The RP stats are GB/IRE only.

Dosage Index
The Dosage Index website is no more.
It is not a useful guide to the distance capability of a horse.

Here are a few 5f sprinters that have Dosage Index numbers that suggest they are middle distance horses
Equiano, 5f sprinter, Dosage Index 0.33
Miss Andretti, 5f sprinter, Dosage Index 1.26
Pivotal, 5f sprinter, Dosage Index 1.20


The RP average winning distance stats are for GB/Ire only, and are not a sound foundation for an opinion on Saxon Warrior getting the 12f English Derby distance.
Saxon Warrior could win the English Derby. He is the fastest. I am unsure he will last 12f.

Just a few points.

We won't agree on Saxon Warrior's staying potential and time will tell. As regards US Navy Flag, the trainer and racing post in running comments wouldn't both have said the horse stumbled unless he did.

It isn't really a matter of handicappers such as rpr jumping up and down horses to explain races. They have to assess what level those horses ran to in a particular race. In the Irish Guineas the yardstick was Gustav Klimt OR 113 who ran the same kind of staying on race there as in the English Guineas, he was beaten by 3 1/2 L = 7lbs = OR 120 for the winner. Symbolization OR 106 was beaten 7L = 14Lb = OR 120 for the winner. Theobald OR 101 was beaten 9 1/4L = 18.5 Lb = OR 119.5 for the winner. Landshark OR 99 was beaten 10 1/2 L = 21 Lb = 120 OR for the winner.

Everything else that was beaten in the race bar Threeandfourpence ( who appears to have improved 3Lb ) ran below form, particularly Elarqam and Zihba.

OR 120 is the level that Guineas winners such as Galileo Gold hit. For Romanised to improve 13Lbs or 6 1/2 L was a staggering performance for him which left me totally baffled.

I considered your headwind theory and looked again at the race. The problem with that theory is that US Navy Flag, Gustav Klimt, Threeandfourpence and all horses that finished in positions 2-7, all of them were up front battling it out while the only horse to make the first 7 from a rear position was Romanised. In the very next race a Group 2 over the same distance the first 2 home had occupied positions 1 and 3 during the race disproving the theory that it was a day for those up front collapsing.

I can't explain Romanised improvement, it was a mad result.


As regards the low dosage sprinters. The dosage index works best when the pedigree contain lots of chef de race sires.

Equiano's pedigree is very short on top class horses. He scores only 12 dosage points. His dosage index is completely unbalanced because his staying bred dam Entente Cordial DI 0.62 has 34 dosage points and his Sprinter Sire Acclamation DI 5.00 had only 6 dosage points in his pedigree. A simple glance at both his parents Dosage Indexes would tell you that Equiano's DI was off the wall.

Miss Andretti's 1.26 DI is reasonably compatible with sprinting. Anything over 1.00 is getting into miler territory and from a miler it's no great leap back to Sprinting.

Pivotal's DI of 1.20 is likewise that of a miler, it's noticeable that Pivotal has no problem getting both sprinters and 10- 12F horses such as Farhh and Oaks winner Sariska.

Deep Impact's best European runner was A Shin Hikari who had a DI of 1.69 and was best at 9-10f , that would allow for a Deep Impact like Saxon Warrior with a DI of 0.87 staying another few furlongs off his DI.

diomed

I don't give much credit to trainer's excuses.
Now it appears Elarqam was a little lame after the Irish 2000. :pac:

I did another AWd analysis for over 20 of the best Deep Impact horses that raced in Japan.
Once I do one calculation (the GB/IRE) AWD it is pointed out you didn't do the Japan AWD. Nobody offers to have a go at it themselves.
Fwiw I got 9.5f AWD for his better Japanese Deep Impact runners, but I have no idea what races were available to the runners.
9.5f AWD is adequate imo to get a middle distance type with a similar mare.