The Curragh, Saturday May 26th

diomed

Irish 2000 Guineas

I was looking at the form and I remember posting about Symbolization.
He ran on English 2000 Guineas day in the 17:20 race, a 0-105 3yo 1m handicap carrying 9-7, winning in 1m 36.94 (7 runners).
Symbilization was conceding 12 pounds to the runner-up.

The English 2000 Guineas was run earlier at 15:35, won by Saxon Warrior, carrying 9-0, in 1m 36.55 (14 runners).
As Elarqam in 4th was 2 1/4 l behind Saxon Warrior, or about 0.4s, that would put Elarqam and Symbolization on almost identical times.

I know one was a handicap, and Group 1 tends to me much tougher, but Symbolization and Elarqam ran identical times, and Symbolization was carrying more weight.
I've put €30 on Symbolization at 15.21.
If Elarqam and Gustav Kilimt are beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas the English Derby market might get a shake up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmlX_ZMusUo

I agree with the commentator.

diomed

The Irish 2000 Guineas field was reduced to 11 this morning and the Symbolization runs.

The Mig

Ryan Moore on US Navy Flag

longshotvalue

The Mig wrote: »

Ryan Moore on US Navy Flag

I've my head in my hands here. He looks a stone cold certainty to me and now his price is too short to get my other bets back..

It took a few runs to get him going last year, but his run in france was a big improvement as nothing went right for him. If the ground is good he wont see another horse, and one of my 3 horses for the flat this year will win and i wont be on.. :mad:

Peintre Celebre

Alpha Centauri is absolutely massive in the 1000 on ground she will love. She looked top class last year winning her first two and beaten a neck at Ascot before two below par runs on heavy ground. 33s is way off

yaboya1

aidankkk wrote: »

I've my head in my hands here. He looks a stone cold certainty to me and now his price is too short to get my other bets back..

It took a few runs to get him going last year, but his run in france was a big improvement as nothing went right for him. If the ground is good he wont see another horse, and one of my 3 horses for the flat this year will win and i wont be on.. :mad:

A stone cold certainty, but 3/1 is too short?
Makes no sense.

akelly02

Hate that sort of talk, won’t be Placed now

kiers47

The only reason Moore is on US Navy Flag is they know that Elarqam has the beating of Gustav Klimpt.
Elarqam is almost certainly the one to beat. Not sure of this talk of US Navy Flag being a certainty. A good chance but almost certainly shorter than he should be.

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

The only reason Moore is on US Navy Flag is they know that Elarqam has the beating of Gustav Klimpt.
Elarqam is almost certainly the one to beat. Not sure of this talk of US Navy Flag being a certainty. A good chance but almost certainly shorter than he should be.

You could be right. I was only surmising he'll win this with no bet from me when I had him as my bet of the year in one of these before the season .

Still wins though ;-) and still couldn't be bothered with 3/1.

tryfix

I wouldn't be at all sure that they know that Elarqam has the beating of Gustav Klimt. Look who's on Gustav (
the same Donnacha who got to ride their superstar Saxon Warrior in the English 2,000 ) .

Ryan is usually put up on the horse with the best form as long as they have shown enough sparkle at home. I don't think Ryan really decides what to ride for O'Brien, he's advised on their well-being and existing place in the pecking order


It's interesting that Appleby sends Symbolization over instead of Masar a horse that already had the measure of Elarqam.

Elarqam will have improved since the English 2,000 but so have the rest. What stands against Elarqam is that as a son of Frankel he's not sure to improve significantly from run to run.

The way I see the race panning out is that US Navy Flag will put the pedal to the metal as the race progresses and it'll be up to the rest of them to run him down in the final furlong. I'll have a sporting bet that Gustav Klimt will have the race run to suit him and that he will get there just in time as the others run out of speed.

Mgoraf

tryfix wrote: »

I wouldn't be at all sure that they know that Elarqam has the beating of Gustav Klimt. Look who's on Gustav (
the same Donnacha who got to ride their superstar Saxon Warrior in the English 2,000 ) .

Ryan is usually put up on the horse with the best form as long as they have shown enough sparkle at home. I don't think Ryan really decides what to ride for O'Brien, he's advised on their well-being and existing place in the pecking order


It's interesting that Appleby sends Symbolization over instead of Masar a horse that already had the measure of Elarqam.

Elarqam will have improved since the English 2,000 but so have the rest. What stands against Elarqam is that as a son of Frankel he's not sure to improve significantly from run to run.

The way I see the race panning out is that US Navy Flag will put the pedal to the metal as the race progresses and it'll be up to the rest of them to run him down in the final furlong. I'll have a sporting bet that Gustav Klimt will have the race run to suit him and that he will get there just in time as the others run out of speed.

Surely this trip is also against elarqam? I know it's only a small sample size but Frankel hasn't had any progeny do anything of note over a mile from what I can see?

Think 6/4 is a bad price, I'll be taking him on

Slattsy

Am i alone thinking Elarqam is a worthy fav and could be hard to beat?

Considering how hard he pulled i thought he did well to finish where he did, and I dont think there's any stamina issue. Better ground will suit too. It looks a bad race imho. No value but if he keeps drifting i'll be on.

Kauto

Slattsy wrote: »

Am i alone thinking Elarqam is a worthy fav and could be hard to beat?

Considering how hard he pulled i thought he did well to finish where he did, and I dont think there's any stamina issue. Better ground will suit too. It looks a bad race imho. No value but if he keeps drifting i'll be on.

Will more than likely pull hard again as most of those Frankels do and with one of the APOB rags putting pressure on him, he is a big lay!

Kauto

That Appleby horse hasn't a rashers of a chnance. Appleby horses don't exactly improve for the run and this lad is well outclassed!

As for Masar the biggest place lay in the history of betting in the Derby!

ANDREWMUFC

Elarqam should win.

Impressive in the Guineas having not raced for a few months and got restless in the stalls. He will come on from that run and the son of frankel will enjoy it around the curragh tomorrow

kiers47

Was having a good luck at the 2000 this evening. Is US Navy Flag a guaranteed stayer. He looks incredibly suspect to stay in my eyes. I couldn't be having him tbh.

I thought the rest of them were fairly accurately priced. If I can get some 9/4-5/2 or so on Elarqam in the morning I might have a go at that.

The rest of the card looks impossible. There was a couple I was interested in but the prices are either gone or never big enough for how I had it.

Rattling Jewel in the second. Joseph has been doing incredibly well with these horses he has claimed/bought from other yards. There was 6/1 or so when it was priced first but that's been clipped in a goood bit now. Probably about right.

Mick Halfords filly in the 5.20 Blackgold Fairy. I'm not sure there is much scope for her in a handicap off 95 however this fillies handicap isn't the strongest affair. I thought the 10/1 was very fair. Not really the best e/w race so not my usual betting event but I might sus out the exchanges in the morning when there is more liquidity.

mailburner

kiers47 wrote: »

.




If I can get some 9/4-5/2 or so on Elarqam in the morning I might have a go at that.

exactly what I was thinking but happy to leave it alone at 7/4

diomed

Racing Post Pricewise pick Zihba for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Was having a good luck at the 2000 this evening. Is US Navy Flag a guaranteed stayer. He looks incredibly suspect to stay in my eyes. I couldn't be having him tbh.

I thought the rest of them were fairly accurately priced. If I can get some 9/4-5/2 or so on Elarqam in the morning I might have a go at that.

The rest of the card looks impossible. There was a couple I was interested in but the prices are either gone or never big enough for how I had it.

Rattling Jewel in the second. Joseph has been doing incredibly well with these horses he has claimed/bought from other yards. There was 6/1 or so when it was priced first but that's been clipped in a goood bit now. Probably about right.

Mick Halfords filly in the 5.20 Blackgold Fairy. I'm not sure there is much scope for her in a handicap off 95 however this fillies handicap isn't the strongest affair. I thought the 10/1 was very fair. Not really the best e/w race so not my usual betting event but I might sus out the exchanges in the morning when there is more liquidity.

US Navy Flag shouldn't have a problem staying the Mile. His full sister Roly Poly was best at a mile and she too had a similar low key start to her 3yo career which built up into a triple Gp 1 winning sequence over a mile.

He's the proper favourite in my book, unless Elarqam has improved massively since Newmarket.

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

Surely this trip is also against elarqam? I know it's only a small sample size but Frankel hasn't had any progeny do anything of note over a mile from what I can see?

Think 6/4 is a bad price, I'll be taking him on

That's a good point. The owner was pushing the trainer to try him over 10f plus. I thought we'd see him at Epsom and it turns out that he has a Cup horse's Dosage Index of 0.63 which seems mad given his speedyish mother.

It's a huge day for Frankel as a Sire. If this lad goes in a soft enough race then Frankel is a Classic winning Sire who can be expected to supply plenty more Classic winners.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

mailburner

That was brutal, doubt I'll back that one again

Not a lot lost as I didn't like the price but was the second part of a double with battaash

Mgoraf

tryfix wrote: »

That's a good point. The owner was pushing the trainer to try him over 10f plus. I thought we'd see him at Epsom and it turns out that he has a Cup horse's Dosage Index of 0.63 which seems mad given his speedyish mother.

It's a huge day for Frankel as a Sire. If this lad goes in a soft enough race then Frankel is a Classic winning Sire who can be expected to supply plenty more Classic winners.

Beaten at half way. Elarqam was his second highest rated horse before today's race. It's been a bit disappointing as a sire all things considered so far.

Kauto

Another dud Godolphin horse in a group 1. Stick to the handicaps Appleby. Laughable

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

Beaten at half way. Elarqam was his second highest rated horse before today's race. It's been a bit disappointing as a sire all things considered so far.

Yup, even though he gets a huge amount of winners he's also throwing some not too genuine types ( although Elarqam had to have an injury or something today because his run was too bad to be true ). You can't have any faith in the Frankels when they step up in grade. It all starts so well for them in lesser company and then they fail in the big races.

Even the now mighty Cracksman failed in both Derbies despite being well fancied.

Mgoraf

Tbh I'd still be willing to take cracksman on in a decent field with quick ground. He grew a leg in soft ground in that champion stakes.

diomed

The ground was a bit quick today.
The Irish result must slow down the eulogizing of Saxon Warrior's English 2000 Guineas win.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

The ground was a bit quick today.
The Irish result must slow down the eulogizing of Saxon Warrior's English 2000 Guineas win.

Why? Gustav Klimt franked the form and Saxon Warrior's 2,000 Guineas win was lauded not because people think he is a brilliant miler but because he won it so easily en-route to his real target which is the Derby.

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

Why? Gustav Klimt franked the form and Saxon Warrior's 2,000 Guineas win was lauded not because people think he is a brilliant miler but because he won it so easily en-route to his real target which is the Derby.

Gustav Klimt finished the same distance behind today's Irish 2000 winner as he did in the English 2000.
Elarqam finished 7 1/4 lengths behind today, and 2 1/4 lengths behind in the English 2000.
Gustav Klimt (3rd) was beaten today by the horse (U S Navy Flag 2nd) who finished 5th in the French 2000.

Saxon Warrior won by 1 1/2l in the English 2000
Romanised won by 2 1/4l in the Irish 2000
A sensible reading would be that Romanised won by further and beat the horses Saxon Warrior beat by the same and by more.
And you could make a claim that the French 2000 was better than the Irish 2000 based on U S Navy Flag running (or else his running is in and out).

If Elarqam and Gustav Klimt fought out the finish of the Irish 2000 Guineas today lengths ahead of the field people would say that was a pointer to Saxon Warrior superior ability.
When it goes the other way it is not a positive.


Of course this does not slow down Saxon Warrior in the Derby.

But he may not be as stout a stayer as people think.
He hasn't run beyond 8f yet.
His dam only ran once beyond 8f.
His sire, Deep Impact, was passed by two horses at the finish of the 12f Arc, and he was running on prohibited drugs to aid breathing.
His sire, Deep Impact's runners in GB/IRE show signs of not staying.
(look at the 12th and 13th finishers of the 13 runner 14f Queen's Vase 2107, Wisconsin, Fierce Impact. Both are by Deep Impact. It is very discouraging when the last two in a staying race are by the same sire.)

antietam

kiers47 wrote: »

The only reason Moore is on US Navy Flag is they know that Elarqam has the beating of Gustav Klimpt.
Elarqam is almost certainly the one to beat. Not sure of this talk of US Navy Flag being a certainty. A good chance but almost certainly shorter than he should be.

Elarqam is by Frankel.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

US Navy Flag shouldn't have a problem staying the Mile. His full sister Roly Poly was best at a mile and she too had a similar low key start to her 3yo career which built up into a triple Gp 1 winning sequence over a mile.

He's the proper favourite in my book, unless Elarqam has improved massively since Newmarket.

I wasn't really talking breeding wise he just doesn't seem to have anything at the business end of things at a mile. He was outstayed today by a horse rated 10lbs inferior who himself hadn't looked the strongest to stay a mile before today.
Was a great ride by Moore I thought. Couldn't have done any better.

Delighted for Ken Condom i think I seen that was his first winner of the season.