Punchestown - Day 4

danganabu · 27-04-2018 12:46pm

aidankkk wrote: »

I hope Samcro blows these away, but surly a place lay is the actual value bet here, on known form. He is only 1.15 around here with 5 hosrses rated the same or better than him.

Anyway that said, if old fav Wicklow doesnt win ill be roaring him home

Samcro's rating is a little bit of a red herring though and is restrianed by what opposition he has met and what he could have done, until he is tested we wont know how good he is or what rating he should have but sometimes you got to just trust your eyes. Horse is an absolute superstar imo and if he stays sound will be talked about in 20/30 years time.

gazza1 · 27-04-2018 12:49pm

4.55 synopsis
5.30 Melon
6.05 Getabird
6.40 Uxizandre

GL

danganabu · 27-04-2018 1:04pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Samcro at Wexford?

Won his P2P in Monksgrange, but be under no illusions anthiem wasn't there either

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 1:04pm

danganabu wrote: »

Samcro's rating is a little bit of a red herring though and is restrianed by what opposition he has met and what he could have done, until he is tested we wont know how good he is or what rating he should have but sometimes you got to just trust your eyes. Horse is an absolute superstar imo and if he stays sound will be talked about in 20/30 years time.

While I primarily agree with you. And I do tend to think he is likely as good as he looks. I think that punters often let their eyes run their wallets a bit too much. Without really weighing up actual odds. I guess it is more a fundamental thing where people like to be on to cheer him home.

I'll be happy enough to see him bolt in but
I think he is plenty short enough now at 8/11 and he has been way overbet.

NaiveMelodies · 27-04-2018 1:22pm

danganabu wrote: »

Samcro's rating is a little bit of a red herring though and is restrianed by what opposition he has met and what he could have done, until he is tested we wont know how good he is or what rating he should have but sometimes you got to just trust your eyes. Horse is an absolute superstar imo and if he stays sound will be talked about in 20/30 years time.

Opposition he has met have wins falling out of their arse. Theres tonnes to go on, not just visuals.
The step up to open company is the only question mark.

longshotvalue · 27-04-2018 1:25pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Opposition he has met have wins falling out of their arse. Theres tonnes to go on, not just visuals.
The step up to open company is the only question mark.

Thats not true i just checked only Black Ops has won since his Bumper days i think.

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 1:25pm

kiers47 wrote: »

Absolutely filthy "account closer" each way double of the day Birch Vale in the first in Perth and Melon.
Place double pays 5/4 with the true odds being somewhere in the region of 4/7-8/13.

Both have very good win chances also. Win price about 10.5/1.

Will wait for a while as both races have the dead 8 and wouldnt really be wanting any NR's

8 runners holding firm in both races so went with this. Ended up getting slightly better odds of 12/1 and a little over 5/4 for the place part.

maximo31 · 27-04-2018 1:25pm

Robbie power here in Osprey hotel. Says about Press Conference: 'he will win.'Was very confident.

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 1:30pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Thats not true i just checked only Black Ops has won since his Bumper days i think.

Next destination on a grade 1 during the week in fairness.

The Mig · 27-04-2018 1:31pm

Couldn't back a Harrington horse at the moment. 60 runners since her last winner 31st March

maximo31 · 27-04-2018 1:32pm

Chatting to Ollie Murphy, says his horse in chepstow best chance but rain not a help.

Johnny_Fontane · 27-04-2018 1:35pm

kiers47 wrote: »

Absolutely filthy "account closer" each way double of the day Birch Vale in the first in Perth and Melon.
Place double pays 5/4 with the true odds being somewhere in the region of 4/7-8/13.

Both have very good win chances also. Win price about 10.5/1.

Will wait for a while as both races have the dead 8 and wouldnt really be wanting any NR's

birch vale very close.....

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 1:37pm

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

birch vale very close.....

Yep close but no dice.
Ah well hopefully Melon can place also for a small profit.

danganabu · 27-04-2018 1:39pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Opposition he has met have wins falling out of their arse. Theres tonnes to go on, not just visuals.
The step up to open company is the only question mark.

The lack of any known form against open company was what I was getting at, the fact that all his form is against fellow novices.

FatRat · 27-04-2018 1:51pm

Where is Melon's great form, to say that he might take Samcro today? Is it losing to MTOY and almost the new one in the international? Or finishing poorly behind Cilaos Emery at this festival last year? Maybe it's his finish in behind Jezki at Leopardstown? His only decent form is pushing Buveur Dair close. I think everyone was shocked at that but have a look at Mick Jazz only 3 lengths further back!

All I've heard about this horse is excuses as to why he has run poorly. Apart from the champion hurdle which was obviously a weak renewal. Great horses should not need excuses. He is an absolute liability to back, you have no idea what you're gonna get from him. Getting burned on him last year at this festival is sticking in my memory in particular. When I thought if Labaik didn't jump off, Melon would hose up. Labaik doesnt jump and Melon flops. He could win of course but I'm very surprised at the confidence here and at him being put up in the value bets thread too. 10/3 ain't value for any horse this inconsistent in my opinion as we have to remember there many other decent animals in this race aside from Samcro. All of this said I believe Samcro can't be backed at 8/11, not over 2 miles.

danganabu · 27-04-2018 2:00pm

FatRat wrote: »

we have to remember there many other decent animals in this race aside from Samcro.

Is there? I can't see them if there is, Wicklow Brave and Coquin Mans are comfortable held by Melon and the only 2m hurlde races Supasundae has ever won was against an off coulor Faugheen and a maiden hurlde back in the day.

FatRat · 27-04-2018 2:07pm

danganabu wrote: »

Is there? I can't see them if there is, Wicklow Brave and Coquin Mans are comfortable held by Melon and the only 2m hurlde races Supasundae has ever won was against an off coulor Faugheen and a maiden hurlde back in the day.

It'd interest you to know that Melon finished fifth behind Supasundae and an off-colour Faugheen. Wicklow Brave's run here last year was much better than Melon's run in the novice. At this stage, they're probably where the value is at in the race, if there is any!

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 2:11pm

kiers47 wrote: »

8 runners holding firm in both races so went with this. Ended up getting slightly better odds of 12/1 and a little over 5/4 for the place part.

God damn you Willie. Min a probably predictable NR. Jesus I'm some nit. Ah well still a chance I suppose.

Kauto · 27-04-2018 2:20pm

Nina retiring today aparently.

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 2:20pm

FatRat wrote: »

It'd interest you to know that Melon finished fifth behind Supasundae and an off-colour Faugheen. Wicklow Brave's run here last year was much better than Melon's run in the novice. At this stage, they're probably where the value is at in the race, if there is any!

Ill disclaimer this that i am far from a Melon fan. In fact today is the first time ive had a bet on him.
Id be surprised if that was his true running in Leopardstown. He drifted like the proverbial that day. His form is patchy yes but overall in the past year he definitely has the best form in the field at this distance. Supasundae is a bit of an unknown for me but i think attending the 3 spring festivals is definitely against him.
He should probably be challenging for favoritism imo. Possibly 6/4 Samcro 2/1 Melon 10/1 bar is the way i was looking at it.

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 2:30pm

What are the odds that Squouateur gets backed like he is the next coming.
1.01 id say.

FatRat · 27-04-2018 2:31pm

My problem with the horse is that I'm yet to see his "True Running". I might be in the minority, but I think the form of the champion hurdle is questionable. Added to that just how poor Melon's only run at this track was I can't go near. Should be an interesting race anyway, we'll let the horses do the talking.

kiers47 · 27-04-2018 2:34pm

I think he needs a solid end to end gallop to really bring out the best in him. He certainly has gears. I mean i dont think he is top top class. But he is likely just in the next tier. You dont get touched off in a champion and supreme novice without having some bit of ability.

Game of opinions i suppose. Time will tell.