Punchestown - Day 4

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Ladies' Day, School kids' day, and the busy day....

Entries here: https://www.irishracing.com/raceentries?prd=201804270000

The Mig

Samcro goes Champion Hurdle

Johner

Can’t wait for that race now! The division isn’t the strongest but throwing Samcro into the mix is very exciting.

Justin10

No Laurina is a bit disappointing

akelly02

Hoping to get evens on samcro

antietam

Great call by Giggs as this really is a hopeless race quality wise and this top beast will treat this opposition with contempt I assume and when he does he will surley go Champion hurdle route next year.He [Samcro]is a chaser over 3m+ as I predicted when I saw him at Wexford so they can wait another year,I hope.My god Im an Idiot the Lexus at Leopardstown is a shocking standand going forward as I always said but I went against my opinion,sadly.

RivetingRoger

Laurina 3/1 in mares.....will she run in that race? 3/1 is some price if so !

Fanny Wank

antietam wrote: »

Great call by Giggs as this really is a hopeless race quality wise and this top beast will treat this opposition with contempt I assume and when he does he will surley go Champion hurdle route next year.He [Samcro]is a chaser over 3m+ as I predicted when I saw him at Wexford so they can wait another year,I hope.My god Im an Idiot the Lexus at Leopardstown is a shocking standand going forward as I always said but I went against my opinion,sadly.

So.... Many.... Aftertimes.....

Even for you Sting this is a classic. I'll throw it in the aftertime thread next time I'm on my laptop

kiers47

Surely the pro punters won't leave melon go off 11/4 it looks way out of whack.

Samcro gone a bit on the skinny side even if he is the most exciting horse in the race.
Not really my bag in terms of a betting race but if I can get a bet on tomorrow at 11/4-3/1 I don't think I'd be able to resist.

Auroras_encore

Min definitely in with a shout here if you believe the hype around buvear dair as min comfortably dealt with him in the supreme and obviously altior is a class of his own atm

JP Liz V1

Billy's Hope and Wicklow Brave and Whiskey Sour e/w

Kauto

Auroras_encore wrote: »

Min definitely in with a shout here if you believe the hype around buvear dair as min comfortably dealt with him in the supreme and obviously altior is a class of his own atm

Min has no chance. Will be lucky to pick up 3rd/4th.

Auroras_encore

Kauto wrote: »

Min has no chance. Will be lucky to pick up 3rd/4th.

Like call a cab and bon papa? Forgive me if I don't give a **** about your opinion

STB.

Auroras_encore wrote: »

Like call a cab and bon papa? Forgive me if I don't give a **** about your opinion

Although Kauto is well up to standing up for himself I'm sure, Its not as if your a star tipster yourself there buddy.

Do you remember your little rant about at the Leop December meeting saying that the Christmas Chase form would come to nothing in March ?

Balko De Flos went on to win the Ryan Air.

I wont even get into what Un De Sceaux did after that this week.

Auroras_encore

STB. wrote: »

Although Kauto is well up to standing up for himself I'm sure, Its not as if your a star tipster yourself there buddy.

Do you remember your little rant about at the Leop December meeting saying that the Christmas Chase form would come to nothing in March ?

Balko De Flos went on to win the Ryan Air.

I wont even get into what Un De Sceaux did after that this week.

And what did road to respect do?

Kauto

Auroras_encore wrote: »

Like call a cab and bon papa? Forgive me if I don't give a **** about your opinion

I said both Call A CAb and Bon Papa should win but I wasn't backing them because of BJG.

They were 10/1 and 6/1 at the time and when off significantly shorter. They were not the worse shouts of all time.

Also I would doubt Min will even run now that Mullins has the championship wrapped up and even if he does he has had 3 tough races in 6 weeks and even at his best would struggle.
Your going on about a bit of form 2 years ago that has no relevance now!

longshotvalue

I hope Samcro blows these away, but surly a place lay is the actual value bet here, on known form. He is only 1.15 around here with 5 hosrses rated the same or better than him.

Anyway that said, if old fav Wicklow doesnt win ill be roaring him home

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

I hope Samcro blows these away, but surly a place lay is the actual value bet here, on known form. He is only 1.15 around here with 5 hosrses rated the same or better than him.

Anyway that said, if old fav Wicklow doesnt win ill be roaring him home

Wicklows price is attractive enough I feel. What do you think?

realdanbreen

Anyone know how many places PP were paying on yesterdays 6.05 ?

Kablamo!

6, I think. 1/5 odds.

prettyboy81

Wicklow Brave today for me at the prices e/w. Note PP money back as free bet on all losers but max €10 if Samcro wins.

The Boards.ie enigma Melon will go off shorter than he is now i'd imagine with Samcro possibly being maybe evens.

RivetingRoger

Does anyone actually believe min or getabird will run today?
I would be shocked if either did not to mind both

Dwarf.Shortage

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Does anyone actually believe min or getabird will run today?
I would be shocked if either did not to mind both

I imagine they were entered in case the trainers championship was in the melting pot and Mullins wanted as many bullets as possible at the two big prize pots.

Doubt they’ll risk it now, then again you could write what I know on the back of a stamp so who knows.

madmoose

Wicklow Brave is 6/1 wout Samcro which to me is fair enough

TheMilkyPirate

antietam wrote: »

Great call by Giggs as this really is a hopeless race quality wise and this top beast will treat this opposition with contempt I assume and when he does he will surley go Champion hurdle route next year.He [Samcro]is a chaser over 3m+ as I predicted when I saw him at Wexford so they can wait another year,I hope.My god Im an Idiot the Lexus at Leopardstown is a shocking standand going forward as I always said but I went against my opinion,sadly.

Samcro at Wexford?

The Mig

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Samcro at Wexford?

Point 2 Point

RivetingRoger

it would seem getabird is running in the 6.05
is currently 11/2
will have some of that if he is.......
am surprised !

longshotvalue

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Wicklows price is attractive enough I feel. What do you think?

I what I'd like is coque mans w/o melon . Think he might surprise .

Mgoraf

Thought min looked a tired horse on Tuesday after a hard race at Aintree. Can't believe they're running him again

kiers47

Absolutely filthy "account closer" each way double of the day Birch Vale in the first in Perth and Melon.
Place double pays 5/4 with the true odds being somewhere in the region of 4/7-8/13.

Both have very good win chances also. Win price about 10.5/1.

Will wait for a while as both races have the dead 8 and wouldnt really be wanting any NR's

NaiveMelodies

All in on Elusive Ivy

danganabu

aidankkk wrote: »

I hope Samcro blows these away, but surly a place lay is the actual value bet here, on known form. He is only 1.15 around here with 5 hosrses rated the same or better than him.

Anyway that said, if old fav Wicklow doesnt win ill be roaring him home

Samcro's rating is a little bit of a red herring though and is restrianed by what opposition he has met and what he could have done, until he is tested we wont know how good he is or what rating he should have but sometimes you got to just trust your eyes. Horse is an absolute superstar imo and if he stays sound will be talked about in 20/30 years time.

gazza1

4.55 synopsis
5.30 Melon
6.05 Getabird
6.40 Uxizandre

GL

danganabu

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Samcro at Wexford?

Won his P2P in Monksgrange, but be under no illusions anthiem wasn't there either

kiers47

danganabu wrote: »

Samcro's rating is a little bit of a red herring though and is restrianed by what opposition he has met and what he could have done, until he is tested we wont know how good he is or what rating he should have but sometimes you got to just trust your eyes. Horse is an absolute superstar imo and if he stays sound will be talked about in 20/30 years time.

While I primarily agree with you. And I do tend to think he is likely as good as he looks. I think that punters often let their eyes run their wallets a bit too much. Without really weighing up actual odds. I guess it is more a fundamental thing where people like to be on to cheer him home.

I'll be happy enough to see him bolt in but
I think he is plenty short enough now at 8/11 and he has been way overbet.

NaiveMelodies

danganabu wrote: »

Samcro's rating is a little bit of a red herring though and is restrianed by what opposition he has met and what he could have done, until he is tested we wont know how good he is or what rating he should have but sometimes you got to just trust your eyes. Horse is an absolute superstar imo and if he stays sound will be talked about in 20/30 years time.

Opposition he has met have wins falling out of their arse. Theres tonnes to go on, not just visuals.
The step up to open company is the only question mark.

longshotvalue

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Opposition he has met have wins falling out of their arse. Theres tonnes to go on, not just visuals.
The step up to open company is the only question mark.

Thats not true i just checked only Black Ops has won since his Bumper days i think.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Absolutely filthy "account closer" each way double of the day Birch Vale in the first in Perth and Melon.
Place double pays 5/4 with the true odds being somewhere in the region of 4/7-8/13.

Both have very good win chances also. Win price about 10.5/1.

Will wait for a while as both races have the dead 8 and wouldnt really be wanting any NR's

8 runners holding firm in both races so went with this. Ended up getting slightly better odds of 12/1 and a little over 5/4 for the place part.

maximo31

Robbie power here in Osprey hotel. Says about Press Conference: 'he will win.'Was very confident.

kiers47

aidankkk wrote: »

Thats not true i just checked only Black Ops has won since his Bumper days i think.

Next destination on a grade 1 during the week in fairness.

The Mig

Couldn't back a Harrington horse at the moment. 60 runners since her last winner 31st March

maximo31

Chatting to Ollie Murphy, says his horse in chepstow best chance but rain not a help.

Johnny_Fontane

kiers47 wrote: »

Absolutely filthy "account closer" each way double of the day Birch Vale in the first in Perth and Melon.
Place double pays 5/4 with the true odds being somewhere in the region of 4/7-8/13.

Both have very good win chances also. Win price about 10.5/1.

Will wait for a while as both races have the dead 8 and wouldnt really be wanting any NR's

birch vale very close.....

kiers47

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

birch vale very close.....

Yep close but no dice.
Ah well hopefully Melon can place also for a small profit.

danganabu

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Opposition he has met have wins falling out of their arse. Theres tonnes to go on, not just visuals.
The step up to open company is the only question mark.

The lack of any known form against open company was what I was getting at, the fact that all his form is against fellow novices.

FatRat

Where is Melon's great form, to say that he might take Samcro today? Is it losing to MTOY and almost the new one in the international? Or finishing poorly behind Cilaos Emery at this festival last year? Maybe it's his finish in behind Jezki at Leopardstown? His only decent form is pushing Buveur Dair close. I think everyone was shocked at that but have a look at Mick Jazz only 3 lengths further back!

All I've heard about this horse is excuses as to why he has run poorly. Apart from the champion hurdle which was obviously a weak renewal. Great horses should not need excuses. He is an absolute liability to back, you have no idea what you're gonna get from him. Getting burned on him last year at this festival is sticking in my memory in particular. When I thought if Labaik didn't jump off, Melon would hose up. Labaik doesnt jump and Melon flops. He could win of course but I'm very surprised at the confidence here and at him being put up in the value bets thread too. 10/3 ain't value for any horse this inconsistent in my opinion as we have to remember there many other decent animals in this race aside from Samcro. All of this said I believe Samcro can't be backed at 8/11, not over 2 miles.

danganabu

FatRat wrote: »

we have to remember there many other decent animals in this race aside from Samcro.

Is there? I can't see them if there is, Wicklow Brave and Coquin Mans are comfortable held by Melon and the only 2m hurlde races Supasundae has ever won was against an off coulor Faugheen and a maiden hurlde back in the day.

FatRat

danganabu wrote: »

Is there? I can't see them if there is, Wicklow Brave and Coquin Mans are comfortable held by Melon and the only 2m hurlde races Supasundae has ever won was against an off coulor Faugheen and a maiden hurlde back in the day.

It'd interest you to know that Melon finished fifth behind Supasundae and an off-colour Faugheen. Wicklow Brave's run here last year was much better than Melon's run in the novice. At this stage, they're probably where the value is at in the race, if there is any!

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

8 runners holding firm in both races so went with this. Ended up getting slightly better odds of 12/1 and a little over 5/4 for the place part.

God damn you Willie. Min a probably predictable NR. Jesus I'm some nit. Ah well still a chance I suppose.

Kauto

Nina retiring today aparently.

kiers47

FatRat wrote: »

It'd interest you to know that Melon finished fifth behind Supasundae and an off-colour Faugheen. Wicklow Brave's run here last year was much better than Melon's run in the novice. At this stage, they're probably where the value is at in the race, if there is any!

Ill disclaimer this that i am far from a Melon fan. In fact today is the first time ive had a bet on him.
Id be surprised if that was his true running in Leopardstown. He drifted like the proverbial that day. His form is patchy yes but overall in the past year he definitely has the best form in the field at this distance. Supasundae is a bit of an unknown for me but i think attending the 3 spring festivals is definitely against him.
He should probably be challenging for favoritism imo. Possibly 6/4 Samcro 2/1 Melon 10/1 bar is the way i was looking at it.