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Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    kiers47 wrote: »
    In fairness it was a hands and heels apprentice handicap. So not getting it in the race is fairly explanatory and if you are betting in it you know what you are getting into.

    Yes agreed Kiers47

    178 bets
    13 winners
    -109pts

    Can I just say there have been no bets since Going Native so the whole Cheltenham meeting was bypassed.

    8.00 Bellick 12/1 2pts e/w


  • Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭ bookman2


    del roy wrote: »
    Yes agreed Kiers47

    178 bets
    13 winners
    -109pts b

    Can I just say there have been no bets since Going Native so the whole Cheltenham meeting was bypassed.

    8.00 Bellick 12/1 2pts e/w


    Can’t see this winning tonight but I hope I am wrong for the kids sake!


  • Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭ bookman2


    bookman2 wrote: »
    Can’t see this winning tonight but I hope I am wrong for the kids sake!

    2nd might have won on another day- 4 pt profit how bad!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    179 bets
    13 winners
    -105pts

    Just couldn't get to the leader.

    6.30 finoah 5/2 3pts win


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    180 bets
    13 winners
    -108pts

    5.45 Justice pleasing 2pts e/w 12/1
    Won a c&d class 6 here in March 2017 off a mark of 58 and now gets to race off 49 tomorrow.
    Over last year tomorrows jockey J.Gormley is 52/402 (12.8%) and 143/402 in the places (35.22%) The jockey is 11/75 (14.67%) with winners over the last five years at the course and 20/75 (26.67%) in the places.

    Trainer R.Fell is 6/74 at the track however Justice Pleasing is 2/18 at the track, add to that he has never raced at the track off such a low rating puts him bang up there in the firing line.

    Jerry


    BACKED INTO 11/2----UNPL


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    181 bets
    13 winners
    -112pts

    1.50 PADDLEYOUROWNCANOE 2PTS E/W 12/1

    3.35 ROCKONROCKY 2PTS E/W 18/1

    LADS JUST A TEXT FROM JERRY, WRITE UP MAY FOLLOW


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    The Mig wrote: »
    One for tomorrow :pac:

    466169.JPG




    50/1 winner :mad:


    Meanwhile back at the ranch the sh!t storm is still blowin

    183 bets
    13 winners
    -120pts


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    5.30 Teddy boy 2pts e/w 14/1

    To my eye (fwiw) Teddy seems to have been tenderly handled in his last few races. Taking the jocks claim on board he carries 8st 2LB so a nice handy weight if there is any improvement this evening.

    Trainer Edward Lynam is 1/19 (win) 7/19 (places) in handicaps at Dundalk over the last 12 months.
    The jockey is 6/129 (win) 24/129 (places) in handicaps at Dundalk over the last 12 months.

    Teddy is racing against tough opposition tonight however he has a very low weight and nice draw to operate from tonight.

    Jerry


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,951 ✭✭✭ mirwillbeback


    del roy wrote: »
    5.30 Teddy boy 2pts e/w 14/1

    To my eye (fwiw) Teddy seems to have been tenderly handled in his last few races. Taking the jocks claim on board he carries 8st 2LB so a nice handy weight if there is any improvement this evening.

    Trainer Edward Lynam is 1/19 (win) 7/19 (places) in handicaps at Dundalk over the last 12 months.
    The jockey is 6/129 (win) 24/129 (places) in handicaps at Dundalk over the last 12 months.

    Teddy is racing against tough opposition tonight however he has a very low weight and nice draw to operate from tonight.

    Jerry

    8th

    Absolute joke of a thread


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,411 ✭✭✭✭ Timberrrrrrrr


    8th

    Absolute joke of a thread

    So don't read it then :rolleyes:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 597 Natalia Abundant Dirt


    Absolute joke of a thread


    Can you do better, maybe start thread posting your selections.


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 568 Auroras_encore


    Can you do better, maybe start thread posting your selections.

    ohh give it a rest this jerry is either laying everything he puts up or does not know one end of a horse from the other


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 597 Natalia Abundant Dirt


    ohh give it a rest this jerry is either laying everything he puts up or does not know one end of a horse from the other

    You didn't answer my question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    184 bets
    13 winners
    -124pts

    7.45 NOT SO SLEEPY 2pts e/w 8/1

    As I said lads, I am not backing any selections as I stopped so just putting these up for Jerry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    185 bets
    13 winners
    -128pts

    another horse well backed and nowhere Jerry, I would take a rest until Christmas racing, they just are not running for you Kid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,951 ✭✭✭ mirwillbeback


    Can you do better, maybe start thread posting your selections.

    Why would I, I don't claim to have a system or knowledge. But this joker is consistently advising terrible, TERRIBLE punting advice as if he's some guru.

    A guru incidentally who is down over 1,000 for a 10 euro stake.

    What I might do is start putting up a selection in a virtual race every single day and I reckon I'd be showing a better profit to a level stake after 6 months or a specific number of selections.

    There's posters on the forum putting up selections with a bit of background to why and getting slated when it doesn't win but this fella (who isn't even a contributor to the forum or boards.ie at all ) has picked 172 losing bets from 185 bets.

    Suddenly that Virtual racing idea above doesn't seem so crazy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,638 ✭✭✭ paddy no 11


    Del and the kid aren't asking anyone to bet, get over yourself

    At the least the kid has had threads where he's been up hundreds of points, read the start of the thread plenty of people were happy to have it sadly hasn't worked out


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 597 Natalia Abundant Dirt


    Why would I, I don't claim to have a system or knowledge. But this joker is consistently advising terrible, TERRIBLE punting advice as if he's some guru.

    Why don't you just stay out of the thread that's what I would do if it upset me that much.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭ longshotvalue


    Why would I, I don't claim to have a system or knowledge. But this joker is consistently advising terrible, TERRIBLE punting advice as if he's some guru.

    A guru incidentally who is down over 1,000 for a 10 euro stake.

    What I might do is start putting up a selection in a virtual race every single day and I reckon I'd be showing a better profit to a level stake after 6 months or a specific number of selections.

    There's posters on the forum putting up selections with a bit of background to why and getting slated when it doesn't win but this fella (who isn't even a contributor to the forum or boards.ie at all ) has picked 172 losing bets from 185 bets.

    Suddenly that Virtual racing idea above doesn't seem so crazy.


    Lads wonder why this forum is getting quieter and quieter. Its called variance. Anyone who thinks there is a easy way to make money backing horses is just plain stupid. Over all his selections he may still be in profit and it takes thousands to make any kind of judgment..


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,050 ✭✭✭ bobwilliams


    I was enjoying following this thread but I'm heading on.
    It's a forum and people should be allowed to critique selections especially when some selections make no sense from a betting perspective.
    I have my own formula and I stick to it,the picks of late have stank of desperation and any decent punter knows in slack times go back to basics.
    He hasn't done that and as soon as a negative comment is posted the bouncers step in.
    People here had genuine questions about the strategy of a said bet and I think that should be allowed and should be answered.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 Mostly Harmless


    While there is definitely an element of awful variance in this downturn, some of the selections and particularly choice of EW bets/staking are baffling to me and there is very little in terms of justification regarding some of these choices - I asked more than once why there are these bets in really crappy EW races (e.g. 7 runner heats) and never got an answer. But also agree nobody is forcing anybody to bet these.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 597 Natalia Abundant Dirt


    I have my own formula and I stick to it

    Are you going to reveal your formula ?

    As far as I remember he agreed to put up his selections, he never agreed to disclose how he picked them and why should he.

    Nobody is forced to back them or even come in here and read them. I for one will continue to come here until the year is up to see how he's doing.

    I think it's a brave act to post his selections for a year as anybody who backs horses will know any selection method can go horribly wrong at any time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,638 ✭✭✭ paddy no 11


    While there is definitely an element of awful variance in this downturn, some of the selections and particularly choice of EW bets/staking are baffling to me and there is very little in terms of justification regarding some of these choices - I asked more than once why there are these bets in really crappy EW races (e.g. 7 runner heats) and never got an answer. But also agree nobody is forcing anybody to bet these.

    It's all about tone, your post is almost constructive criticism which is alright, but I don't mind being labelled a bouncer for some fella who just starts raving he hasn't got a clue etc.

    Maybe ask del if Jerry has moved away from the system that used to be successful?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 597 Natalia Abundant Dirt


    It's all about tone, your post is almost constructive criticism which is alright, but I don't mind being labelled a bouncer for some fella who just starts raving he hasn't got a clue etc.


    Exactly lads coming in demanding the thread be closed are way out of line.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ del roy


    Del, can you bang this up.

    Hi
    Irrespective of the few who think I am A GUESSER OR A JOKE if you don'y mind I will continue posting my selections. I would rather lose a bit more than stop posting as I said I would stick it out for a year and that's what I intend to do.
    Since I started this thread my p/l is -12.8k. I cannot be anymore honest than that.

    If you enjoyed the thread at the beginning but now can't bear to read it, that's fine but don't come saying "this thread is a joke.

    Where were you when I was up over 100pts.
    Where were you when after the first thread I was 267pts up after one year.
    I do not want the thread to be closed or turn into two different groups of people with different agendas (ie open or close this thread).
    Lets all wait until my time is up to start thread bashing.

    REGARDING THE BAD E/W BETS.
    Its all about the price you consider value. Would I consider 5.45 Justice pleasing 2pts e/w 12/1 a good e/w bet. yes.
    Would I consider it an good e/w bet when it shortened into 11/2 five minutes before the off. No I would not.
    Do you realize one of the most tipping services around advise e/w at 7/2 or even 11/4.

    Jerry


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 Mostly Harmless


    del roy wrote: »
    Del, can you bang this up.

    Hi
    Irrespective of the few who think I am A GUESSER OR A JOKE if you don'y mind I will continue posting my selections. I would rather lose a bit more than stop posting as I said I would stick it out for a year and that's what I intend to do.
    Since I started this thread my p/l is -12.8k. I cannot be anymore honest than that.

    If you enjoyed the thread at the beginning but now can't bear to read it, that's fine but don't come saying "this thread is a joke.

    Where were you when I was up over 100pts.
    Where were you when after the first thread I was 267pts up after one year.
    I do not want the thread to be closed or turn into two different groups of people with different agendas (ie open or close this thread).
    Lets all wait until my time is up to start thread bashing.

    REGARDING THE BAD E/W BETS.
    Its all about the price you consider value. Would I consider 5.45 Justice pleasing 2pts e/w 12/1 a good e/w bet. yes.
    Would I consider it an good e/w bet when it shortened into 11/2 five minutes before the off. No I would not.
    Do you realize one of the most tipping services around advise e/w at 7/2 or even 11/4.
    Thanks for the reply, re the bit in bold:

    These are always in races with massively advantageous EW terms, e.g. with an odds on fav and a load of no hopers (generally maidens and novice races), in these cases it is 100% +EV to bet EW.

    Betting EW in races with not particularly advantageous or patently disadvantageous EW terms, e.g. competitive 7 runner races, is 100% not +EV and you are giving away a certain amount of whatever edge you may have, as a general rule you would do better taking place only prices on the betfair show.
    Anyway, just my feedback make of it what you will, I shan't be commenting anymore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,943 ✭✭✭ Widdensushi


    Keep posting, hope things improve for you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 597 Natalia Abundant Dirt


    Keep posting, hope things improve for you.


    Yep keep posting for the year as you intended.


  • Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭ Aurora1966


    I honestly think you should knock it on the head pal. Its just not happening for you, take a break son. When the fun stops, STOP.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,050 ✭✭✭ bobwilliams


    Are you going to reveal your formula ?


    No, I'm not.Just like Coca Cola and Guinness I'll keep my tried and trusted formulae to myself.
    You seriously think I would share it here?
    It's just when you look at some of the selections posted here it's hard to fathom what type of formulae is being followed.
    I definitely think whatever rules he was following before have now been ripped up and he's betting like a desperate addict tbh.


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