Dublin - BusConnects

LXFlyer

cferrie wrote: »

You'd be surprised what can be acheived there http://irishcycle.com/2017/08/03/what-to-do-with-a-problem-like-cycling-in-rathmines/

After 30 years commuting through South central Dublin (amongst others) by bus, I’m intimately familiar with it. I don’t need Cian to explain the problems that it faces.

Unless buildings are demolished there isn’t the space for 4 lanes along the section I outlined.

I just don’t see where all the diverted traffic can go if the car lanes are removed.

The cycling option posted earlier in the thread is just a nonsense - no one would use it.

I just don’t see bus speeds in the area (already the slowest in the city) getting anything like the improvement the NTA suggest (30 minutes plus!).

LXFlyer

RayCun wrote: »

The object of the exercise is to make journey times faster for buses, and increase the provision of cycling facilities.
Not to make things better - or even keep them the same - for private cars. If it takes cars 10 minutes longer to get through that area, but buses get through 10 minutes faster, that's a net win.

I’m not sure your diversionary routes for all the car traffic will help the proposed orbital routes along the current 18 bus route and the proposed service along Highfield Road either.

They’ll just end up going nowhere quickly.

cferrie

You seem to be completely excluding the possibility that some people might stop using their cars to get into the city centre and use the bus instead. If you can't get past that then it's not surprising that you don't see a solution here. Unfortunately there seems to be many people in the NTA that think the same way as you.

LXFlyer

cferrie wrote: »

You seem to be completely excluding the possibility that some people might stop using their cars to get into the city centre and use the bus instead. If you can't get past that then it's not surprising that you don't see a solution here. Unfortunately there seems to be many people in the NTA that think the same way as you.

Woah there - I AM a bus passenger. I don’t drive. So don’t start telling me what I believe.

I just don’t think any of these plans are going to make any significant difference - nothing like the 30 minutes the NTA claim. That’s being realistic.

The buses are mainly full as it is (even with the increase in capacity). The other half of the plan bizarrely suggests cutting that capacity. That’s not going to work.

With respect I’ve been posting here about transport an awful lot longer than you. If you read back through my posts I’ve been consistent about this.

The only solution that will make a measurable difference in that area is an underground metro line. Yes it will be expensive but it will be the only way that we see significant improvements.

Anything else is tinkering and people are kidding themselves if they think otherwise. I genuinely do not see the levels of improvement the NTA are claiming actually happening.

For the record I welcome any improvement in bus priority measures but I strongly believe that the NTA claims are massively overstated.

cferrie

Fair enough, my apologies - I do most of my ranting on twitter, I prefer the brevity.

LXFlyer

No bother - I suspect we are both as frustrated by all of this as each other!

cgcsb

LXFlyer wrote: »

I just don’t see where all the diverted traffic can go if the car lanes are removed.

Modal shift and evaporation.

LXFlyer

cgcsb wrote: »

Modal shift and evaporation.

Modal shift onto what?

The radial bus service in the area has already increased in frequency (14, 15, 15b and 16). The buses are pretty much full even allowing for that increase.

The other half of BusConnects (as it stands) proposes cutting that increased frequency especially at the outer ends, which is where most of the traffic comes from. That part I suspect is now dead in the water.

I’m not in any way shape or form convinced that these plans will deliver the results as promised by the NTA. That’s the problem I have with this.

Being honest, I suspect we will end up with watered down results with fairly minimal improvements.

monument

LXFlyer wrote: »

Woah there - I AM a bus passenger. I don’t drive. So don’t start telling me what I believe.

I just don’t think any of these plans are going to make any significant difference - nothing like the 30 minutes the NTA claim. That’s being realistic.

The buses are mainly full as it is (even with the increase in capacity). The other half of the plan bizarrely suggests cutting that capacity. That’s not going to work.

With respect I’ve been posting here about transport an awful lot longer than you. If you read back through my posts I’ve been consistent about this.

The only solution that will make a measurable difference in that area is an underground metro line. Yes it will be expensive but it will be the only way that we see significant improvements.

Anything else is tinkering and people are kidding themselves if they think otherwise. I genuinely do not see the levels of improvement the NTA are claiming actually happening.

For the record I welcome any improvement in bus priority measures but I strongly believe that the NTA claims are massively overstated.

Wait a second — I’m not sure what you being a bus passenger has to do with it?

I know too many councillors, bus passengers, and cycling campaigners who are pro-sustainable transport but also overallly worried about “where will the [motorised] traffic go”.

Like your other post:

LXFlyer wrote: »

And where exactly would all the diverted outbound traffic off Rathmines then go?

I might be pointing out the obvious here but the four routes, Ranelagh, Rathmines/Rathgar/Terenure, Harold’s Cross/Terenure/Rathfarnham and Harold’s Cross/KCR are all chocked full of traffic as it is as are all of the cross-routes.

I’ve had my doubts all along about the difference any measures in this area will have on average bus speeds and I’ve yet to see anything to change that.

Too many people here are too afraid of “where does the traffic go” or see traffic evaporation and modal change ending at the canal ring city centre — Amsterdam, Utrecht etc proves this isn’t the case.

cgcsb

LXFlyer wrote: »

Modal shift onto what?

The radial bus service in the area has already increased in frequency (14, 15, 15b and 16). The buses are pretty much full even allowing for that increase.

Bus Connects proposes running the A buses through Rathmines at a frequency of 1 bus every 3 minutes at peak times in addition to the 14 which will operate every 15 minutes at peak times. This will be kept on time by proposed bus priority measures. That is better than the current frequencies.

LXFlyer

Well let’s wait and see.

But if these plans deliver a 30 minute improvement in journey times from South Dublin to the city centre, as they claim, I shall eat my hat!

What you’re outlining would require a huge change in Irish culture from a part of the population that hasn’t shown an inclination to change yet, and if I am brutally honest I just don’t see it happening in that part of Dublin.

LXFlyer

cgcsb wrote: »

Bus Connects proposes running the A buses through Rathmines at a frequency of 1 bus every 3 minutes at peak times in addition to the 14 which will operate every 15 minutes at peak times. This will be kept on time by proposed bus priority measures. That is better than the current frequencies.

No it isn’t better.

FYI The 14 operates every 10 mins in the morning peak now and every 15 minutes during the day.. That’s going to be cut under these plans.

Maybe sit down and analyse the numbers of buses passing through Rathmines and Harold’s Cross since the recent service increases took place in October and early December (which are the only relevant ones - not those set out in the original plan which are completely out of date now), and come back to me with your results.

BusConnects frequencies (as proposed) will not be an improvement on what we now have. Over the course of the day they represent a fairly major cut.

monument

LXFlyer wrote: »

Modal shift onto what?

The radial bus service in the area has already increased in frequency (14, 15, 15b and 16). The buses are pretty much full even allowing for that increase.

The other half of BusConnects (as it stands) proposes cutting that increased frequency especially at the outer ends, which is where most of the traffic comes from. That part I suspect is now dead in the water.

I’m not in any way shape or form convinced that these plans will deliver the results as promised by the NTA. That’s the problem I have with this.

Being honest, I suspect we will end up with watered down results with fairly minimal improvements.

Walking, cycling, buses as more are added gradually or freed up with bus priority etc, and longer trams as them come on stream. Or a mix of these or a mix of these and partly driving.

Some people who want to or have to drive will try other routes and this sometimes displaces them into the other route and people currently driving there into walking, cycling or public transport.

Sometimes people in cars further out will start using the bus or tram, and those will then be fuller closer to the city centre (Ie Rathmines etc) and people not being able to get on the bus will switch to walking and cycling.

Some trips don’t happen — for example, school runs start to become self-travel for teenagers or it will switch from adult working in one place or not working to the adult working in the city centre, and in both cases there will no longer be the drive back home.

This is how modal change happens — it’s a bit messy, it’s often not direct and it’s usually a gradual process.

The 15 has been over subscribed at peak times for at least the last 10 years.

Even during the quietest periods of the recession the buses were frequently full before leaving Knocklyon, and it's a semi-regular occurence for me to be standing despite getting on at the 5th or 6th stop.

Even in Rathgar and Rathmines the bus services are leaving people behind at the stops.

Talking about modal shifts is theoretical bluster when the bus services are already so cramped and uncomfortable that many people would rather a) choose jobs outside the city centre or b) take 70-90minutes crawling in traffic via car.

Lxflyer is correct in this instance, talking about modal shifts is just waffle when discussing routes through templeogue/terenure/rathgar/rathmines/harold's cross.

Ten years ago, the 15 operated every 10 minutes between 07:45 and 08:45. Now, despite being extended to serve an area with several thousand homes catering to young workers, it operates.... every 10 minutes from 07:42 onward - and the 15b just about replaces the capacity of the combined 74 and 74a (although at least the 74 served as a supplementary route to the 15).

But, modal shift *waves magic wand*

monument

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The 15 has been over subscribed at peak times for at least the last 10 years.

Even during the quietest periods of the recession the buses were frequently full before leaving Knocklyon, and it's a semi-regular occurence for me to be standing despite getting on at the 5th or 6th stop.

Even in Rathgar and Rathmines the bus services are leaving people behind at the stops.

Talking about modal shifts is theoretical bluster when the bus services are already so cramped and uncomfortable that many people would rather a) choose jobs outside the city centre or b) take 70-90minutes crawling in traffic via car.

Lxflyer is correct in this instance, talking about modal shifts is just waffle when discussing routes through templeogue/terenure/rathgar/rathmines/harold's cross.

Ten years ago, the 15 operated every 10 minutes between 07:45 and 08:45. Now, despite being extended to serve an area with several thousand homes catering to young workers, it operates.... every 10 minutes from 07:42 onward - and the 15b just about replaces the capacity of the combined 74 and 74a (although at least the 74 served as a supplementary route to the 15).

But, modal shift *waves magic wand*

If modal change is magic, the data shows it works:

The number of car users, which includes an estimate of drivers and passengers combined, has decreased 15,156 people in 10 years and down 27,812 since 1997, according to historic data. At the same time the number of commuters overall across all modes combined has increased from 180,000 in 1997 to nearly 211,500 commuters.

http://irishcycle.com/2018/05/22/rush-hour-car-use-continues-to-decline-in-central-dublin-cycling-walking-bus-use-up/

Stephen15

LXFlyer wrote: »

No it isn’t better.

FYI The 14 operates every 10 mins in the morning peak now and every 15 minutes during the day.. That’s going to be cut under these plans.

Maybe sit down and analyse the numbers of buses passing through Rathmines and Harold’s Cross since the recent service increases took place in October and early December (which are the only relevant ones - not those set out in the original plan which are completely out of date now), and come back to me with your results.

BusConnects frequencies (as proposed) will not be an improvement on what we now have. Over the course of the day they represent a fairly major cut.

The Bus Connects plan was made based on Summer 2018 service levels not Winter 2018/19 service levels which are significantly increased. I would imagine any revised proposals will take this into consideration.

LXFlyer

Stephen15 wrote: »

The Bus Connects plan was made based on Summer 2018 service levels not Winter 2018/19 service levels which are significantly increased. I would imagine any revised proposals will take this into consideration.

Well I shall wait and see. Frankly I don’t share your optimism.

Coming up with a plan for a revised network with detailed frequencies and PVR allocation that ignored planned imminent increases in frequency across the existing network (including an additional route - the 175) doesn’t exactly tell me that one arm of the organisation is talking to the other.

Based on the current somewhat shambolic management of the GAI rollout by the NTA, I am rapidly losing what confidence I had in the organisation to come up with proposals that actually deliver real improvements.

Just to be clear BusConnects reduced capacity over the day on the radial routes even under the old frequencies, and particularly did so at the outer ends of the spines.

We badly need more orbital routes but I don’t think that stripping the vehicles to deliver them from radial routes is the best answer.

monument

monument wrote: »

If modal change is magic, the data shows it works:

I know you're smarter than to believe that because something is true in general, it is always true - so why don't you stop making that logical fallacy?

Car-commuting routes over the canal have been at saturation point for my entire life. I'm not sure why showing that a decrease in maximum throughput due to changes in road design on already saturated routes = people choosing alternative means of transport.

As I said, you're throwing out the phrase "modal shift" but you don't actually have anything substantive behind it.

"Modal shift"

"Modal shift!"

"Modal shift!!!!"

People can't choose to commute via public transport when public transport on specific routes are already saturated, despite you writing "(magical) modal shift!" 17 times per post.

LXFlyer

monument wrote: »

If modal change is magic, the data shows it works:

The number of car users, which includes an estimate of drivers and passengers combined, has decreased 15,156 people in 10 years and down 27,812 since 1997, according to historic data. At the same time the number of commuters overall across all modes combined has increased from 180,000 in 1997 to nearly 211,500 commuters.

http://irishcycle.com/2018/05/22/rush-hour-car-use-continues-to-decline-in-central-dublin-cycling-walking-bus-use-up/

Perhaps then apply that to the south central area where morning peak bus journey times are now even slower and running times have had to be extended.

I’m being very specific monument in my comments - the Templeogue and Rathfarnham QBCs have the slowest bus speeds in the city and over the last two winters I’ve experienced the worst traffic levels ever. I just don’t see this modal shift. Sure there are more bikes, but over the entire corridors the traffic is worse now than ever.

monument

LXFlyer wrote: »

Perhaps then apply that to the south central area where morning peak bus journey times are now even slower and running times have had to be extended.

I’m being very specific monument in my comments - the Templeogue and Rathfarnham QBCs have the slowest bus speeds in the city and over the last two winters I’ve experienced the worst traffic levels ever. I just don’t see this modal shift. Sure there are more bikes, but over the entire corridors the traffic is worse now than ever.

People say the same thing about the city centre — but the data is there to show that there is modal change.

And as I said sometimes modal share is messy — that includes more people being carried slowing things down or priority measures lagging behind more people using the bus or cycling or walking.

monument

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I know you're smarter than to believe that because something is true in general, it is always true - so why don't you stop making that logical fallacy?

Car-commuting routes over the canal have been at saturation point for my entire life. I'm not sure why showing that a decrease in maximum throughput due to changes in road design on already saturated routes = people choosing alternative means of transport.

As I said, you're throwing out the phrase "modal shift" but you don't actually have anything substantive behind it.

"Modal shift"

"Modal shift!"

"Modal shift!!!!"

People can't choose to commute via public transport when public transport on specific routes are already saturated, despite you writing "(magical) modal shift!" 17 times per post.

Your post persumes a few things about modal:

(1) That it happens only to public transport — much of it in recent years has been to cycling and one or two years have showed more walking too.

(2) That it quickly — it’s more often than not incremental: a few bus on route x or y every few years, a longer tram after years or waiting or more people slowing walking and cycling.

(3) That you claiming that I am “throwing out the phrase” devalues modal change when I have data — hard facts and you are the one shouting that there’s no such thing as modal change when it’s a well-proven effect.

(4) I’ve already provide the data, so, I actually, I do have anything substantive behind it.

(5) I’m not sure what part of this you don’t understand: traffic counts and the Cencus shows fewer people driving and more people using sustainable transport?

LXFlyer

monument wrote: »

People say the same thing about the city centre — but the data is there to show that there is modal change.

And as I said sometimes modal share is messy — that includes more people being carried slowing things down or priority measures lagging behind more people using the bus or cycling or walking.

That data isn’t for the entire corridor though?

It’s at the canal isn’t it?

Extend back out along the entirety of the 14, 15, 16 routes and I’m not convinced. Mark 1 eyeball tells me otherwise.

As I’ve mentioned before much of the traffic isn’t necessarily going all the way into the city centre acrosss the canals.

monument

LXFlyer wrote: »

That data isn’t for the entire corridor though?

It’s at the canal isn’t it?

Extend back out along the entirety of the 14, 15, 16 routes and I’m not convinced. Mark 1 eyeball tells me otherwise.

Mark 1 eyeball tells loads of people I talk to otherwise inside the canals too and those people are wrong...

But remember the idea of modal change was in the context of the idea of a bus gates and cycle paths in Rathmines and the question of “where would the [car] traffic go”.

The bus gates and cycle paths would push on modal change at a faster pace that’s happening now....

LXFlyer wrote: »

As I’ve mentioned before much of the traffic isn’t necessarily going all the way into the city centre acrosss the canals.

Indeed, that’s why a mixing of bus and cycling mesures is better — bus alone isn’t sutable for many local trips in the way cycling can be (when conditions are improved).

LXFlyer

monument wrote: »

Mark 1 eyeball tells loads of people I talk to otherwise inside the canals too and those people are wrong...

But remember the idea of modal change was in the context of the idea of a bus gates and cycle paths in Rathmines and the question of “where would the [car] traffic go”.

The bus gates and cycle paths would push on modal change at a faster pace that’s happening now....

Indeed, that’s why a mixing of bus and cycling mesures is better — bus alone isn’t sutable for many local trips in the way cycling can be (when conditions are improved).

Ah now come on - I think you know me better than to imagine things. I tend to watch what's going on around me along the corridors when I'm commuting.

I've 30 years of commuting on and off along those corridors and quite frankly I can honestly say that the traffic along the entire corridors is worse than ever in the past two years.

If you're going to keep telling me that I'm wrong, and coming up with all sorts of other reasons, then there's not much point in continuing this discussion. I know what I see.

Again, I think you're being very optimistic that BusConnects will solve it and lead to massive modal shift - I just don't believe that to be honest unless we get an underground Metro into that area. I've consistently stuck with that belief given the numerous pinch points and the lack of roadspace, along with the fact that much of the corridors have buildings built up to the footpaths.

Closing roads off to general traffic is going to be very difficult to "drive through" politically as there are very few alternative routes that can be used.

Again, the claim from the NTA of (I've just double checked it again and it's more than I mentioned earlier) potentially up to 50 minutes saved off the commuting time as a result of the infrastructure changes is in my view nonsense.

tom1ie

LXFlyer wrote: »

Ah now come on - I think you know me better than to imagine things. I tend to watch what's going on around me along the corridors when I'm commuting.

I've 30 years of commuting on and off along those corridors and quite frankly I can honestly say that the traffic along the entire corridors is worse than ever in the past two years.

If you're going to keep telling me that I'm wrong, and coming up with all sorts of other reasons, then there's not much point in continuing this discussion. I know what I see.

Again, I think you're being very optimistic that BusConnects will solve it and lead to massive modal shift - I just don't believe that to be honest unless we get an underground Metro into that area. I've consistently stuck with that belief given the numerous pinch points and the lack of roadspace, along with the fact that much of the corridors have buildings built up to the footpaths.

Closing roads off to general traffic is going to be very difficult to "drive through" politically as there are very few alternative routes that can be used.

Again, the claim from the NTA of (I've just double checked it again and it's more than I mentioned earlier) potentially up to 50 minutes saved off the commuting time as a result of the infrastructure changes is in my view nonsense.

The only way we will get 50 mins saved off the commuting times is to build an uninterrupted qbc the entire length from the n81 side of terenure village to the City Centre qbc’s on the quays.
We all know that’s not gonna happen.

cgcsb

LXFlyer wrote: »

Well let’s wait and see.

But if these plans deliver a 30 minute improvement in journey times from South Dublin to the city centre, as they claim, I shall eat my hat!

What you’re outlining would require a huge change in Irish culture from a part of the population that hasn’t shown an inclination to change yet, and if I am brutally honest I just don’t see it happening in that part of Dublin.

What cultural changes are required?

LXFlyer

cgcsb wrote: »

What cultural changes are required?

In the quoted post I wasn’t actually replying to you - rather the previous post to yours - I think you nipped in as I was typing.

My point was that there would need to be a sigificant change in culture in that area, an area where there is zero rail infrastructure, to shift large numbers from their private cars to buses.

That’s not happened in this specific part of Dublin and I remain to be convinced that it will.

cgcsb

LXFlyer wrote: »

In the quoted post I wasn’t actually replying to you - rather the previous post to yours - I think you nipped in as I was typing.

My point was that there would need to be a sigificant change in culture in that area, an area where there is zero rail infrastructure, to shift large numbers from their private cars to buses.

That’s not happened and I remain to be convinced that it will.

It hasn't a huge amount to do with culture, more about utility. If a bus can get you to work 30 minutes faster than your car can and is cost competitive you'll take the bus. If a car and bus journey are the same length of time and your car is a more comfortable way to travel, you'll take the car.

CatInABox

The NTA were in with the Oireachtas Committee on Transport today, so of course the Irish Times has a fair and balanced report out.

NTA says improved bus routes may cost car drivers

tom1ie

CatInABox wrote: »

The NTA were in with the Oireachtas Committee on Transport today, so of course the Irish Times has a fair and balanced report out.

NTA says improved bus routes may cost car drivers

Imagine, inconveniencing single occupancy cars for busses carrying approx 90 people, the horror!

“She also said the NTA has requested 26 additional staff for 2019 and “a similar number” for 2020 to ensure the body has adequate resources to work on BusConnects and Metro North.”

FFS! Metro north?! The standard of journalism is shocking.