Universal Basic Income?

drillyeye

Ive heard a lot about this idea the last few years, and for many reasons I think its cloud 9 level thinking.

But one aspect of it came up during a conversation at lunch.

If a country were to actually introduce UBI, surely there would be a stampede from the rest of the planet to get there.

Even if there were restrictions like, say, having to live in Ireland for 5 years, just look at it from a foreign persons point of view. "I can work for the rest of my life, or faff around Ireland for 5 years and then get paid a lot of money for doing absolutely nothing!"

Its similar to the dole, but with 2 very important differences. First of all, there is absolutely no expectation to work. Secondly, it would be close to average industrial wage, say, 30 grand a year.

How in the name of sweet onions could such a system be implemented without having the world knocking on your door? Its an angle on UBI I haven't heard before.

Owryan

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057806895/1/#post105215745

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057624973/1/#post100426439


Already been done to death

suicide_circus

The problem is not the world knocking at the door, it's inflation. How are you going to stop all the shops jacking up the prices to account for the new basic income?

drillyeye

Owryan wrote: »

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057806895/1/#post105215745

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057624973/1/#post100426439

Already been done to death

But not my specific question.

How can a country implement UBI without completely closing immigration?

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

drillyeye wrote: »

But not my specific question.

How can a country implement UBI without completely closing immigration?

It can't and it's not going to happen here in isolation.

The whole question is too hypothetical.

Owryan

drillyeye wrote: »

But not my specific question.

How can a country implement UBI without completely closing immigration?

Ask the Finns, they've been trialling the idea.

drillyeye

Dylan Sweet Story wrote: »

It can't and it's not going to happen here in isolation.

The whole question is too hypothetical.

So you agree that the idea is 100% dead in the water, barring every single country implementing it at once, or immigration comes to a dead halt?

As I said, I haven't seen this angle on the idea before, and of all the more obtuse head-scratchers (such as inflation mentioned above), immigration surely is the number 1 killer of the proposal, and by a very long shot?

drillyeye

Owryan wrote: »

Ask the Finns, they've been trialling the idea.

"Hello? Is that the finns? Yeah, I have a question..." :P

Owryan

drillyeye wrote: »

"Hello? Is that the finns? Yeah, I have a question..." :P

Hope whoever picks up speaks English. But seriously, surely they had to have some sort of plan for this.

drillyeye

Owryan wrote: »

Hope whoever picks up speaks English. But seriously, surely they had to have some sort of plan for this.

It might be a another attempt to be the best boy in the class by them, ie run a trial, but let it die after that.

The problem, as I see it, first and foremost is that if a country were to actually implement it on national scale.....who wouldn't be tripping over themselves to get there?

So if UBI is dead out the gates, then that means automation and increasing unemployment doesn't have a cure.

Owryan

drillyeye wrote: »

It might be a another attempt to be the best boy in the class by them, ie run a trial, but let it die after that.

The problem, as I see it, first and foremost is that if a country were to actually implement it on national scale.....who wouldn't be tripping over themselves to get there?

So if UBI is dead out the gates, then that means automation and increasing unemployment doesn't have a cure.

Social justice Ireland have been campaigning for ubi for a while now. They had a full breakdown of costings and the tax needed to implement it. Naturally they ignored the elephant that you have pointed out.

I think ubi has potential but no government would risk bringing it in as it supposed to be supplemented by income from employment, something many in Ireland are allergic to.

suicide_circus

It's communism in a new jacket.

drillyeye

Owryan wrote: »

Social justice Ireland have been campaigning for ubi for a while now. They had a full breakdown of costings and the tax needed to implement it. Naturally they ignored the elephant that you have pointed out.

I think ubi has potential but no government would risk bringing it in as it supposed to be supplemented by income from employment, something many in Ireland are allergic to.

Fair enough. I'm just surprised that I haven't heard the immigration angle before. And no wonder others would like to avoid it!

I think that's it for me, 100% convinced that UBI will never work.

Agricola

I think in wealthy western economies it's a certainty but probably way off in the distance. 100 years ago the idea of a welfare net to protect people from extreme poverty was faintly ridiculous. 100 years from now, with all the advances in technology and automation coupled with an ever rising population, means UBI is a very realistic scenario in the distant future.

The hard part is selling this "communist" idea to societies which are rampantly capitalist and where inequality is growing all the time.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

drillyeye wrote: »

So you agree that the idea is 100% dead in the water, barring every single country implementing it at once, or immigration comes to a dead halt?

As I said, I haven't seen this angle on the idea before, and of all the more obtuse head-scratchers (such as inflation mentioned above), immigration surely is the number 1 killer of the proposal, and by a very long shot?

Correct. A German commission in 2013 rejected the idea on several fronts; one of which was a marked increase in immigration, above even what they were willing to accept.

drillyeye

Agricola wrote: »

I think in wealthy western economies it's a certainty but probably way off in the distance. 100 years ago the idea of a welfare net to protect people from extreme poverty was faintly ridiculous. 100 years from now, with all the advances in technology and automation coupled with an ever rising population, means UBI is a very realistic scenario in the distant future.

The hard part is selling this "communist" idea to societies which are rampantly capitalist and where inequality is growing all the time.

Well yeah, but its a fair argument that the social safety nets of developed countries is a very large magnet for people in less developed countries, hence massive immigration (not the only factor of course).

Bring that to its extreme (UBI), where you get full wages for doing nothing, and I cant see how you wouldn't have EVERYONE trying to jump in, thereby destroying the system.

drillyeye

Dylan Sweet Story wrote: »

Correct. A German commission in 2013 rejected the idea on several fronts; one of which was a marked increase in immigration, above even what they were willing to accept.

Okay, at least someone else thought of it too!

4068ac1elhodqr

drillyeye wrote: »

Fair enough. I'm just surprised that I haven't heard the immigration angle before. And no wonder others would like to avoid it!

I think that's it for me, 100% convinced that UBI will never work.

It's not a if, but 'when' it shall be introduced. It will probably be on an electronic ID card, that will deny any purchase of boozing, smoking and such like products.

All this stuff was covered in previous threads anyway. The migration issue will simply be addressed with much stricter qualifying criteria, and perhaps a move towards points-based systems. If Brexit ever happens, there will be a flavour of sudden increased migration anyway.

Hyper-inflation is the only real issue against it.

wakka12

Its not even a question of if but when. Automation will eliminate the vast majority of jobs, there simply will not be anywhere close to the number of jobs needed to provide for all the potential work force, so its either UBI or massive poverty and civil unrest

drillyeye

Giovanni Creamy Toy wrote: »

It's not a if, but 'when' it shall be introduced. It will probably be on an electronic ID card, that will deny any purchase of boozing, smoking and such like products.

All this stuff was covered in previous threads anyway. The migration issue will simply be addressed with much stricter qualifying criteria, and perhaps a move towards points-based systems. If Brexit ever happens, there will be a flavour of sudden increased migration anyway.

Hyper-inflation is the only real issue against it.

To bring it to a purer point, I believe the problem with giving away massive amounts of money for free wouldn't be inflation, but the mad dash to grab it all in the first place.

Its a non-runner, in my opinion, for that reason alone.

But maybe that's how it will all play out (think of Japan). With automation comes a necessity for something like UBI.

With UBI comes the necessity for zero immigration.

I can definitely see a mad max future in this scenario, the precious few left to be slowly replaced by robots while the rest of the world tears itself apart. Sounds good!

Arthur Daley

Or totally open borders. With a period to allow for UBI levels to adjust between countries/purchasing power parity. Don't think it is impossible to see this in our lifetime.We already have open borders from Donegal to Istanbul.

wakka12

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Or totally open borders. With a period to allow for UBI levels to adjust between countries/purchasing power parity. Don't think it is impossible to see this in our lifetime.We already have open borders from Donegal to Istanbul.

I don't know how the issues with UBI and attracting migrants will work out but I can't see open borders happening in our lifetime. Two of the leading nations of the western world USA and UK have both taken a huge step backward in that regard and have taken several measures make themselves less welcoming to foreigners and immigrants, similarly many european nations that dealt with massive influxes of syrian migrants have totally changed public opinions on immigration, and many of the worlds largest emerging economies like India and China are notoriously xenophobic

Ulysses Gaze

Increased automation and robotisation means we don't not need more unskilled migrants from the Third World coming into Europe.

We probably need more engineers, IT people and techies from the region.

UBI won't work unless you implement extremely draconian immigration and asylum laws in a country.

And if that country resides within the EU, then that will not be allowed.

It is a non-runner.

4068ac1elhodqr

There are other factors to migration such as climate, language, safety, culture and even ideological conquest.

If 10yrs of savings from UBI in Timbuktu can buy just 10 goats and a basic 2bed flat in Timbuktu, it's likely also that
also 10yrs of savings from UBI in Cork can buy just 10 goats and a basic 2bed flat in Cork.

With the rise of AGI then ASI (ai), very few will be able to move somewhere and become highly successful or wealthy in anything.
UBI can easily be paid for by taxing the super-rich and stopping their creative accounting practices.

drillyeye

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Or totally open borders. With a period to allow for UBI levels to adjust between countries/purchasing power parity. Don't think it is impossible to see this in our lifetime.We already have open borders from Donegal to Istanbul.

I think that stuff is dead man walking. A failure to realise the implications of what "equality" actually means for the top 1% of the world (ie us in Ireland)

It just need a few more years to settle in to thick skulls, because, unfortunately, some people need to be burned by the proverbial match.

Throw in this UBI contradiction, and potential automation on top. Woooo boy! Some people are in for the rudest awakening of their shuttered lives.

Arthur Daley

So there could possibly be an EU wide UBI system, if there were hard borders, within 50 years, let's say. If the US adopts it, and much of this thinking is coming out of silicon valley, then that's a big chunk of the 'first world'.

Bob_Marley

If the moguls in Europe who want European labour to be as cheap labor as possible and European profits as high as possible, don't eventually bring one in, who is going to be able to afford to buy all the crap they need us to buy to keep their money making merry-go-round spinning ?

Arthur Daley

Bob_Marley wrote: »

If the moguls in Europe who want European labour to be as cheap labor as possible and European profits as high as possible, don't eventually bring one in, who is going to be able to afford to buy all the crap they need us to buy to keep their money making merry-go-round spinning ?

Emmm They might not have thought this through. Listen you'd be surprised.

OneEightSeven

I saw a comment on the Journal.ie today, someone saying we need asylum seekers to "do the jobs the Irish won't" It's amazing people keep parroting this piece of mass immigration propaganda in an age where we're seeing unmanned petrol stations, self-serving checkouts and driverless cars and trains.

wakka12 wrote: »

Its not even a question of if but when. Automation will eliminate the vast majority of jobs, there simply will not be anywhere close to the number of jobs needed to provide for all the potential work force, so its either UBI or massive poverty and civil unrest

Ireland has already experienced automation killing off low-skilled work. After we became independent, we were still an agricultural economy with the vast majority of people living in rural areas and working on farms, but the farming industry was increasingly becoming automated so farms became less dependent on farm workers. Despite high birthrates at the time, the population kept shrinking until Sean Lemass industrialised Ireland in the '60s.

One thing this country is good at is forcing our youth to migrate to greener pastures due to the lack of job opportunities. I just hope today's youth go to collage/university and aren't lured into the construction industry like my generation because anytime America enters recession, it will drag us down with them and our building trade will collapse.

professore

drillyeye wrote: »

"Hello? Is that the finns? Yeah, I have a question..." :P

I went to college with a guy who literally said something like that when calling a French company looking for work.

Bob_Marley

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

We probably need more engineers, IT people and techies from the region.

We don't. We've loads continually coming out year after year from the IT's.
What we have a shortage of in Ireland is people who are continually willing to cut their own throats and work for less and less, while being exploited for more and more. Hence the greedy desire to import as much cheap labour as possible from abroad. Nowadays for more and more young people, even two parents working full time will never be able to afford their own house, and they will forever be in lifetime servitude to larger and larger landlords / corporations. It's a race to the bottom for ordinary people.

4068ac1elhodqr

Chicago could be the largest US city to launch a basic income pilot (UBI).

Alderman Ameya Pawar has proposed a bill to provide 1,000 families with $500 a month in a pilot that would make Chicago the largest US city to try a basic income program. In an interview with The Intercept, Pawar said he introduced the bill because he is worried that automation could leave millions of people without jobs.

Detroit might have been a more obvious choice, but perhaps due to the extreme poverty, crime levels and drugs epidemics there, not ideal or fully suitable.

Beyond Chicago, a number of cities and countries (Oakland, Alaska, Finland, Ontario, W.Kenya) around the world are running their own studies/experiments. link

BrokenArrows

UBI is just a bad idea.
It has noble ambitions but it unfortunately doesnt work with human nature.

If you give the whole population a basic income then you will just give a % of the population a means to contribute nothing to society and become a burden. This small % will become the same as the eternal dole recipient we have today.

PlaneSpeeking

BrokenArrows wrote: »

UBI is just a bad idea.
It has noble ambitions but it unfortunately doesnt work with human nature.

If you give the whole population a basic income then you will just give a % of the population a means to contribute nothing to society and become a burden. This small % will become the same as the eternal dole recipient we have today.

Agreed.

We effectively have this now, all UBI would do is attract the small percentage who feel slightly bad about scrounging or who care what people think.

Grayson

drillyeye wrote: »

But not my specific question.

How can a country implement UBI without completely closing immigration?

Why did you include two links and neither are to the question you asked?


I don't see any conflict. People who move to other european countries generally don't have a right to start collecting the dole immediately. Why should UBI be any different? And people from outside the EU don't even have that right, they need a job offer to get a visa.

4068ac1elhodqr

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Agreed.

We effectively have this now, all UBI would do is attract the small percentage who feel slightly bad about scrounging or who care what people think.

Disagreed.

UBI will allow all the folks who are currently afraid to do an odd days job here and there - because it will result in them loosing all their other benefits, tax credits, housing, medical cards, bus passes or whatever else as a result.

Only after various meetings, form filling-in and a promise never to do a bit of random work ever again without notifying authorites will they get back to their previous status.

The future is one of a gig-economy, zero-hours contracts and one of little rights for workers.

kilns

It went to public vote here in Switzerland (like most things) and giving CHF2500 per month to each person living here was defeated, the Swiss are a very responsible race
Imagine if it went to public vote in Ireland, it would pass 99% to 1%

4068ac1elhodqr

Robots will handle over 50% of work tasks by 2025 - WEF report
https://www.rte.ie/news/technology/2018/0917/994231-world-economic-forum/

Most other reports suggest the robot takeover (wave 2/3 50% replacement) was not until 2030.
Unless there has been sudden escalation in automation, this figure seems a bit premature.

"By 2025 more than half of all current workplace tasks will be performed by machines as opposed to 29% today" .

- a statement by the Swiss non-profit organisation WEF.

Sure there 'may' be some new roles, but this is largely speculation.
Afterall there will only be human roles if a 24/7 robot/autobot can't do it faster/better/cheaper.
Any new human only roles will therefore require very unique skills, education and abilities.

Water John

The idea of UBI just won't go away. LB Govn't in the UK will trial it.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/12/labour-would-trial-universal-basic-income-if-elected-john-mcdonnell-says

suicide_circus

Water John wrote: »

The idea of UBI just won't go away. LB Govn't in the UK will trial it.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/12/labour-would-trial-universal-basic-income-if-elected-john-mcdonnell-says

no harm in trialing it but i wonder if you get accurate data from doing it in certain areas, i mean, does it tell you what will happen when it is launched nationally ?

Water John

One has to trial and use different models. The effect will be more social than economic IWT based on some previous trials. It depends then on what value is put on, quality of life.
It is interesting that our new Central Bank Governer, coming from New Zealand is an exponent of the welfare/happiness index.

suicide_circus

suicide_circus wrote: »

no harm in trialing it but i wonder if you get accurate data from doing it in certain areas, i mean, does it tell you what will happen when it is launched nationally ?

No.

The Kuwaitis have had basic income for years. Almosy all of its citizens still work and are fabulously rich, but you can't really compare an economy that's eating psychedelic drugs to an advanced economy in Europe or North America.

UBI is almost definitely going to happen, but contrary to what was suggested above, I don't think we'll be among the first in Europe to pursue it. Our liberal economic policy is just too ingrained.

beejee

A totally whacky idea that has no connection to reality.

"it's a case of "when" " my arse.

Billions of people will die if jobs/purpose dry up, not be supplied with free money. How many people are already standing around gulping air and little else already? In other words, people will bend to reality and not the other way round.

Its the nuttiest idea since Professor Nutt of Nutt Industries proposed recycling the nuts from circus elephant dung.

Junkyard Tom

UBI will be little but a sop to the masses. We need to take democratic control of automation/AI and disabuse those who currently control it of the false notion that they somehow 'own' it.

This can be done peaceably or it'll be taken by force.

sk8erboii

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

UBI will be little but a sop to the masses. We need to take democratic control of automation/AI and disabuse those who currently control it of the false notion that they somehow 'own' it.

This can be done peaceably or it'll be taken by force.

You want to forcibly take peoples private property?

Junkyard Tom

sk8erboii wrote: »

You want to forcibly take peoples private property?

I don't consider the fruits of the totality of human advancement the private property of individuals who happen to live at this current point in history.

Each discovery, each advance, each increase in the sum of human riches, owes its being to the physical and mental travail of the past and the present.

circadian

They should at least be paying income tax for each job replaced, otherwise it's free labour with even more incredible profit levels.

suicide_circus

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite

sk8erboii

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I don't consider the fruits of the totality of human advancement the private property of individuals who happen to live at this current point in history.

Each discovery, each advance, each increase in the sum of human riches, owes its being to the physical and mental travail of the past and the present.

But everything ever invented is the ‘fruits of totality of human advancement’

Does some random guy on welfare have the same claim to AI as say Elon musk?


Your argument is so full of holes

Sonny noggs

I think i’d rather a Skynet takeover to the communist ‘utopia’ that comrade Tom and his ilk would foist on us.

sk8erboii

Sonny noggs wrote: »

I think i’d rather a Skynet takeover to the communist ‘utopia’ that comrade Tom and his ilk would foist on us.

Whats this got to do with communism?