March 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Here comes the March 2018 contest, good luck ...

1. Predict the IMT (mean of five locations, 1981-2010 normal value was 6.8 C).

2. Predict the MAX (highest value at met.ie regular reporting locations)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest value at met.ie regular reporting locations)

4. Predict the PRC (as a percentage of normal), average of eleven locations

5. Predict the SUN (as a percentage of normal), average of six locations

6. BONUS -- Predict the maximum temperature for the 17th at Claremorris.

Deadline is 0300h on Thursday, 1st of March. Usual penalties will apply. On top of those, any MIN forecast submitted after the same value is recorded can only score a maximum of 15/20, if I feel that a close estimate that later verifies to score 16 to 19, that will also be reduced to 15.

(e.g., there's an hourly report of -10 on 2nd of March, you enter after that with -10.2 guessing the decimal, and actual is -9.9, raw score of 17 goes to 15).

This applies whether you actually consulted the data or not to protect the on time entrants (because we can't tell that).

Note: Slightly late entries on 1st will have a sliding value capping the score, the reduced score cap will be 18 from 0305h to 0600h, 17 for 0601 to 1200h and 15 after 1201h. This will not apply to predictions on the night of 1st-2nd if the 2nd verifies, instead the partial 0305h to 0600h will be 17 and anything 0601h and later will have the 15 cap applied.

NormaL is already basically screwed ... or else I am ...

NormaL _______ 6.8 __ 18.0 __ --6.5 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 11.0 17th

MT Cranium ____4.5 __ 15.5 __ --11.0 __ 215 __ 070 __ 10.2

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 4.9 __ 14.1 __ -12.0 __ 90 __ 90 __ 11.6c

Bsal

Bsal ____4.8 __ 14.9 __ -10.0 __ 95 __ 110 __ 10.0

sdanseo

sdanseo ____4.8 __ 16.1 __ --13.5 __ 110 __ 95 __ 12.0

Rikand

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

pauldry

pauldry_____4.5 ..... 14.7 ..... -7.3 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... 9.0

Lumi

Lumi ____4.7 __ 16.0 __ -10.0 __ 115 __ 085 __ 12.2

adam240610

adam240610 _________ 5.0 __ 15.8__ -10.2 __ 90 __ 110 __ 11.0c

sunflower3

Sunflower3___4.9 __ 17.1 __ -8.4__ 120 __ 095 __ 14.0

John mac

John Mac 5.8 ..... 15.6 ..... -8.9 ..... 103 ..... 102 ..... 14.0

dasa29

Dasa29 ____5.0 __ 13.5 __ --8.0 __ 115 __ 110 __ 12.0

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 6.0 ___ 15.7 ___ -9 ___ 92 ___ 115 ___ 10.2

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____5.9 __ 14.8 __ -6.8 __ 125 __ 085 __ 9.9

200motels

200motels

---

5.9 __ 17.8 __ -8.8 __ 120 __ 085 __ 14.8

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_____ 5.7 ___ 16.7 ___ -7.9 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ 10.5

Rikand

Rikand wrote: »

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

crap, forgot to put my name in

Rikand ..... 5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

rameire

Rameire ____4.5 __ 15.9 __ -9.0 __ 91 __ 115 __ 8.8

waterways

waterways ____6.1__ 17.5 __ --8.1__ 119 __ 092 __ 13.5

Think I have never before seen all 25 stations in the 22:00 ME's latest reports at -1 and lower. Stay warm and safe everywhere and think about your neighbours.

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____4.5 __ 15.5 __ --10.0 __ 85 __ 95 __ 8.2

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _________ 3.8c __ 16.4 __ -13.3c __ 150 __ 95 __ 4.9c

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_______ 5.8 __ 17.5 __ --8.5 __ 125 __ 85 ___ 13.4 17th

mrskinner

Skinner_____4.6______16.0°_____-8.0°______80%______100%______9.6°__

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____4.7 __ 16.8 __ -9.2 __ 111 __ 94 __ 6.4

Apologies for the lateness, having fun in the snow thought it was a leap year... :pac:

Joe Public

Joe Public ___5.7 __ 18.9 __ -9.9__ 110 __ 99 __ 12.3

M.T. Cranium

Just for future reference, the above two will be -2 for late but no extra penalty applied to min temp score as there has not been a reading close to these predictions overnight.

The following one, -3 for lateness but also no extra penalty for min score, prediction is beyond already recorded or obvious immediate values.

JCX BXC

Sh*te I'm late again.

JCXBXC_________ 5.2 __ 15.1 __ -10.8 __ 90 __ 90 __ 11.2c

Joe Public

-7.0C Cork Airport

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2018


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX 17th Claremorris


NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0


waterways ____________6.1 _ 17.5 _ --8.1 _ 119 _ 092 ___ 13.5

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___ 10.2

200motels ____________5.9 _ 17.8 _ --8.8 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 14.8

DOCARCH ____________ 5.9 _ 14.8 _ --6.8 _ 125 _ 085 ____ 9.9

Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 17.5 _ --8.5 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 13.4

John Mac _____________ 5.8 _ 15.6 _ --8.9 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 14.0

Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 5.7 _ 18.9 _ --9.9 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 12.3

Tae laidir _____________ 5.7 _ 16.7 _ --7.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 10.5

JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _--10.8 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.2

adam240610 __________ 5.0 _ 15.8 _--10.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11.0

Rikand _______________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --9.9 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12.0

Dasa29 _______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --8.0 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.0


Con Sensus ___________ 5.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11.1


sunflower3 ____________ 4.9 _ 17.1 _ --8.4 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 14.0

sryanbruen ____________4.9 _ 14.1 _--12.0 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.6

sdanseo ______________ 4.8 _ 16.1 _--13.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0

Bsal __________________4.8 _ 14.9 _--10.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.0

Dacogawa _____ (-2) ____4.7 _ 16.8 _ --9.2 _ 111 _ 094 ____ 6.4

Lumi _________________ 4.7 _ 16.0 _--10.0 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 12.2

MrSkinner _____________ 4.6 _ 16.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 9.6

Rameire _______________4.5 _ 15.9 _ --9.0 _ 091 _ 115 ____ 8.8

mickger844posts ________4.5 _ 15.5 _--10.0 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 8.2

MT Cranium ____________4.5 _ 15.5 _--11.0 _ 215 _ 070 ___ 10.2

pauldry _______________ 4.5 _ 14.7 _ --7.3 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 9.0

BLIZZARD7 ____________3.8 _ 16.4 _--13.3 _ 150 _ 095 ____ 4.9

______________________________________________________________

Welcome to Adam 240610 and good luck all !

pauldry

Just have noticed that in rainfall

Casement has 16.0mm but Dublin Airport has 132mm

Is this a misprint?

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Just have noticed that in rainfall

Casement has 16.0mm but Dublin Airport has 132mm

Is this a misprint?

For what date?

pauldry

For the month of March

Now monthly is 106.8mm for Dublin ...its changed

but Casement a mere 16.1mm

M.T. Cranium

Well, Dublin (892% of normal so far) is not one of the eleven locations we use to calculate PRC, so it won't affect the contest. Casement (139%) is. Another very wet location so far is Roches Point (449%), also not part of the calculation. Johnstown Castle is among the locations used, they are currently at 391%. Cork is at 206% (they are also in the calculation).

So after the first week and its very cold and wet start ...

IMT stands at 2.0 which is 4.4 below normal for the period.

MAX appears to be 10.2 (Newport 7th) and MIN -7.0 (Cork 1st).

PRC is 129% of normal, some locations were below (Valentia only 55%) which balanced the two wet locations mentioned above.

SUN got all tired out in February and took a break, 68% of normal (409/600). Valentia managed 105% though.

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

For the month of March

Now monthly is 106.8mm for Dublin ...its changed

but Casement a mere 16.1mm

I see what you mean now, the stock piles of snow around the Casement area must have blown from somewhere else

M.T. Cranium

Sure these early MAXes will be overtaken, but 10.3 now after three locations hit that on Thursday 8th.

John mac

13.9 in Shannon Saturday 10 March

M.T. Cranium

You may recall that in February I went on a limb with 200% sunshine and the results were inconclusive (reality was near 150% and this fell into a big gap between my forecast and closest at 125%). Well this month I'm trying the same gambit with precip at 215%, but BLIZZARD7 has upped the ante of the safety zone by going with 150%. Still, that leaves a big gap for PRC and wouldn't you know it, PRC is at 144% now. However, a rather dry week looms, so all will depend on how much precip falls in the last ten days of the month. I don't like my chances now.

So here's the second week update ...

IMT now stands at a mere 4.1 C, the second week was a bit milder than the first but no great heat wave, with the average 6.2 C which is still 0.5 below normal for the period.

MAX 13.9 and MIN -7.0 so far

PRC has reached 144% with this past week around 159% of normal, mostly due to heavy rainfalls yesterday in the south, some other locations had a relatively dry week (Ballyhaise for example 63%, Claremorris 64% and Malin Head 40%).

SUN is now at 78% after a somewhat brighter second week at 87% (524/600).

Expect the IMT to drop to around 3.0 by Wednesday 21st and the next update. MIN could drop as well.

DOCARCH

-6.9c on the 20th at Markree....so close....but I'll take it! :rolleyes:

Rikand

How did paddy's day fair out ?

DOCARCH

Max. for Claremorris on the 17th was 6.6c

M.T. Cranium

With all the weather events of the past few days I forgot all about the bonus question, confirming what DOCARCH kindly posted above, max at Claremorris on 17th was 6.6 C.

Dacogawa was considerably closer at 6.4 than anyone else. The second closest forecast was 8.2 from Mickger844posts which just edged out the 4.9 from BLIZZARD7. These three will share the 10 points available and Dacogawa will get a superbonus point for being that close.

Nine points go to Rameire at 8.8, Pauldry at 9.0. and MrSkinner at 9.6 C.

From there on, it will be scoring pairs for 8 points down to 4 points, where ties get involved, and the lower scores will be groups of similar values, no zero scores. So that looks like this:

8 points -- DOCARCH 9.9 and Bsal 10.0

7 points -- MTC and Kindred Spirit both on 10.2

6 points -- Tae laidir 10.5 and Adam240610 at 11.0 (also NormaL 11.0)

5 points -- JCXBXC at 11.2 and sryanbruen at 11.6 (also Con Sensus 11.1)

4 points -- Rikand, Dasa29 and sdanseo all at 12.0

3 points -- Lumi at 12.2 and Joe Public at 12.3

2 points -- JPmarn at 13.4 and waterways at 13.5

1 point -- sunflower3 and John mac at 14.0, 200 motels at 14.8

==================================================

The lowest temperature during the cold spell was --6.9 at Mountdillon, which was not quite as cold as the --7.0 at Cork on the 1st.

It seems safe to say that --7.0 will be the MIN although there are some cold looking days at the end of the month on the models today.

If so, then closest forecasts for the MIN will be DOCARCH at --6.8 and Pauldry at --7.3 ... they are likely to get 19 and 18 points as the scoring looks like it will go from minimum progression.

M.T. Cranium

Hello there, you may know me from such movies as after week one and after week two ...

After week three, an up and down temperature ride that left us where we started,

IMT was on 4.2 (from 4.16 rounded up) with the third week also 4.2, which is now 2.9 below normal.

MAX remains 13.9 and MIN --7.0 after cold spell number two managed --6.9 as its lowest.

PRC was only 45% for the week and this brought the monthly value so far down considerably to 111%.

SUN got a boost with the week at 107% of normal (641/600) which pushes the average up to 87% of normal.

According to the 12z GFS, the expected outcomes will be something like this:

IMT 4.3 _ MAX 14.0 _ MIN --7.0 _ PRC 100 _ SUN 090

In other words, the rest of the month looks about the same as the first three weeks on average. This would appear to be a remarkably low MAX for March, I bumped it up to 14.0 although I don't really see too many places where the 13.9 would be topped, maybe equalled around Monday next week. The MIN is probably safe despite some cold looking days near the end of the month. I don't think it will be overly wet despite some bursts of heavy rain around Monday, and it doesn't look too sunny either, although with some luck most of that colder weather will be bright and could push SUN up to 095 or even closer to 100 perhaps.

Rikand

I think March is going to be one of my dropped months

waterways

April is lurking

M.T. Cranium

April contest thread is open.

Report on fourth week of Marchuary ...

IMT is a chilly 4.6, this past week managed 6.2 which was 1.3 below average.

PRC edged up to 114 per cent with this fourth week at 120% of normal.

SUN is now at a high point for the month of 93% as the past week managed 110% (661/600).

Would expect these to be the final values, give or take ...

4.5 _ 13.9 _ --7.0 _ 120 _ 095

will confirm what I can on first and wait a few days for the MS to appear, 3rd or 4th depending on the status of Monday as a regular working day.

Rikand

dacogawa

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Report on fourth week of Marchuary ...

Marchuary gave me a Superbonus point on the bonus question, I will hear nothing said against our new winter month

All hail (or snow) Marchuary!

And I managed a good photo or two...

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished on 4.6 C

PRC estimate is 113%.

SUN estimate is just under 100% around 98-99 from 150% for last three days (which were sunny in west although cloudy in east).

Will wait to confirm these before posting any scoring.

M.T. Cranium

The MS had not appeared when this was posted and I have edited the table to show that the estimated values are now confirmed. Everything in the "estimated values" line was correct so no changes required, except for sunshine which worked out to be exactly 100% but as most forecasts were multiples of five, that didn't change any scores with one minor exception.

The annual update will be posted soon, I hope.


Confirmed scoring for March, 2018


FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ MAX 17th Cla ___ TOTALS

Confirmed values ______4.6_13.9_-7.0 _113_ 100____ 6.6

pauldry ______________ 24 _ 18*_ 19*_ 09 _ 10 ____ 09 _____ 89
Dasa29 ______________ 21 _ 19*_ 17*_ 14 _ 08 ____ 04 _____ 83
DOCARCH ____________ 12 _ 17*_ 20*_ 11 _ 07 ____ 08 _____ 75
MrSkinner ____________ 25 _ 07*_ 17*_ 04 _ 10 ____ 09 _____ 72
Bsal _________________23 _ 16*_ 07*_ 09 _ 08 ____ 08 _____ 71
Dacogawa _____ (-2) ___24 _ 04*_ 10*_ 14 _ 09 ____ 11_72-2=70
mickger844posts _______24 _ 13*_ 07*_ 06 _ 09 ____ 10 _____ 69

Con Sensus ___________21 _ 10*_ 10*_ 14 _ 09 ____ 05 _____ 69

Rameire _____________ 24 _ 08*_ 11*_ 08 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 67
sryanbruen ___________22 _ 20*_ 03*_ 07 _ 08 ____ 05 _____ 65
sunflower3 ___________ 22 _ 03*_ 15*_ 13 _ 09 ____ 01 _____ 63
Tae laidir ____________ 14 _ 04*_ 18*_ 12 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 63
Rikand ______________ 21 _ 15*_ 09*_ 07 _ 06 ____ 04 _____ 62
Lumi ________________ 24 _ 07*_ 07*_ 14 _ 07 ____ 03 _____ 62
John Mac _____________13 _ 11*_ 12*_ 12 _ 09 ____ 01 _____ 58
sdanseo ______________23 _ 06*_ 01*_ 14 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 57
adam240610 __________21 _ 09*_ 05*_ 07 _ 08 ____ 06 _____ 56
Kindred Spirit _________ 11 _ 10*_ 11*_ 09 _ 07 ____ 07 _____ 55
JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____19 _ 14*_ 04*_ 07 _ 08 ____ 05_57-3=54
MT Cranium ___________24 _ 13*_ 04*_ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _____ 52
waterways ____________10 _ 02*_ 16*_ 13 _ 08 ____ 02 _____ 51
Jpmarn ______________ 13 _ 02*_ 14*_ 11 _ 07 ____ 02 _____ 49
Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 14 _ 00*_ 09*_ 14 _ 10 ____ 03_50-2=48

NormaL ______________03 _ 00*_ 18*_ 11 _ 10 ____ 06 _____ 48


200motels ____________12 _ 01*_ 13*_ 13 _ 07 ____ 01 _____ 47
BLIZZARD7 ___________17 _ 05*_ 02*_ 03 _ 09 ____ 10 _____ 46

______________________________________________________________

* scores from minimum progression (MAX, MIN)

On these confirmed numbers, it is now official, congrats to Pauldry, Dasa29 and DOCARCH.

______________________________________________________________

(Table of forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX 17th Claremorris


NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0


waterways ____________6.1 _ 17.5 _ --8.1 _ 119 _ 092 ___ 13.5

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___ 10.2

200motels ____________5.9 _ 17.8 _ --8.8 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 14.8

DOCARCH ____________ 5.9 _ 14.8 _ --6.8 _ 125 _ 085 ____ 9.9

Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 17.5 _ --8.5 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 13.4

John Mac _____________ 5.8 _ 15.6 _ --8.9 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 14.0

Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 5.7 _ 18.9 _ --9.9 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 12.3

Tae laidir _____________ 5.7 _ 16.7 _ --7.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 10.5

JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _--10.8 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.2

adam240610 __________ 5.0 _ 15.8 _--10.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11.0

Rikand _______________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --9.9 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12.0

Dasa29 _______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --8.0 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.0


Con Sensus ___________ 5.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11.1


sunflower3 ____________ 4.9 _ 17.1 _ --8.4 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 14.0

sryanbruen ____________4.9 _ 14.1 _--12.0 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.6

sdanseo ______________ 4.8 _ 16.1 _--13.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0

Bsal __________________4.8 _ 14.9 _--10.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.0

Dacogawa _____ (-2) ____4.7 _ 16.8 _ --9.2 _ 111 _ 094 ____ 6.4

Lumi _________________ 4.7 _ 16.0 _--10.0 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 12.2

MrSkinner _____________ 4.6 _ 16.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 9.6

Rameire _______________4.5 _ 15.9 _ --9.0 _ 091 _ 115 ____ 8.8

mickger844posts ________4.5 _ 15.5 _--10.0 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 8.2

MT Cranium ____________4.5 _ 15.5 _--11.0 _ 215 _ 070 ___ 10.2

pauldry _______________ 4.5 _ 14.7 _ --7.3 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 9.0

BLIZZARD7 ____________3.8 _ 16.4 _--13.3 _ 150 _ 095 ____ 4.9

______________________________________________________________

sryanbruen

March 2018 monthly weather summary released now.

Very cold. Heavy snowfall in many areas.

http://cli.met.ie/cli/bulletin/data/2018/03/sum_032018.pdf

M.T. Cranium

I had a chance to review the information in the MS and everything was confirmed (sunshine worked out closer to 100% but scores generally remained the same there, and all other estimates proved to be okay, so the scoring table has been edited to show "confirmed scoring" etc.

The annual table will follow along soon, as I get into my day here at Ireland's westernmost point. (or so it seems)

M.T. Cranium

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Mar)

rank _FORECASTER ______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ TOTAL __ previous rank

01 _mickger844posts ______75 __ 77 __ 69 ____ 221 ___ 01
02 _Pauldry______________73 __ 58 __ 89 ____ 220 ___ 05-t
03 _MrSkinner ___________ 73 __ 64 __ 72 ____ 209 ___ 03

(03t) Con Sensus _________ 73 __ 67 __ 69 ____ 209 ___(02)

04 _Dacogawa ___________ 71 __ 67 __ 70 ____ 208 ___ 02
05 _DOCARCH ___________ 63 __ 62 __ 75 ____ 200 ___ 09
06_Tae laidir _____________78 __ 53 __ 63 ____ 194 ___ 05-t
07t_Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 ____ 192 ___ 07
07t_sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 ____ 192 ___ 08
07t_dasa29 ______________69 __ 40 __ 83 ____ 192 ___ 14
10 _sunflower3 ___________68 __ 56 __ 63 ____ 187 ___ 10
11 _Bsal ________________ 63 __ 49 __ 71 ____ 183 ___ 13
12 _Jpmarn ______________71 __ 61 __ 49 ____ 181 ___ 04
13 _Rameire _____________52 __ 56 __ 67 ____ 175 ___ 15-t

(13) NormaL _____________75 __ 52 __ 48 ____ 175 ___(08)

14t_Kindred Spirit. ________ 59 __ 56 __ 55 ____ 170 ___ 11-t
14t_Lumi ________________54 __ 54 __ 62 ____ 170 ___ 15-t
16 _waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 ____ 166 ___ 11-t
17 _john mac ____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 ____ 164 ___ 17-t
18 _sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 ____ 163 ___ 17-t
19 _JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 ____ 160 ___ 17-t
20 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 ____ 157 ___ 20
21 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 ____ 148 ___ 21
22 _BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 ____ 146 ___ 22
23 _Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 ____ 145 ___ 23
24 _Adam240610 __________--- __ ---__ 56 ____ 056 ___ ---
________________________________________________________________

Just one point separates leader Mickger844posts from Pauldry, and most of us retained our positions from last month with one or two notable exceptions.