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March 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 25-02-2018 10:45pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Here comes the March 2018 contest, good luck ...

    1. Predict the IMT (mean of five locations, 1981-2010 normal value was 6.8 C).

    2. Predict the MAX (highest value at met.ie regular reporting locations)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest value at met.ie regular reporting locations)

    4. Predict the PRC (as a percentage of normal), average of eleven locations

    5. Predict the SUN (as a percentage of normal), average of six locations

    6. BONUS -- Predict the maximum temperature for the 17th at Claremorris.

    Deadline is 0300h on Thursday, 1st of March. Usual penalties will apply. On top of those, any MIN forecast submitted after the same value is recorded can only score a maximum of 15/20, if I feel that a close estimate that later verifies to score 16 to 19, that will also be reduced to 15.

    (e.g., there's an hourly report of -10 on 2nd of March, you enter after that with -10.2 guessing the decimal, and actual is -9.9, raw score of 17 goes to 15).

    This applies whether you actually consulted the data or not to protect the on time entrants (because we can't tell that).

    Note: Slightly late entries on 1st will have a sliding value capping the score, the reduced score cap will be 18 from 0305h to 0600h, 17 for 0601 to 1200h and 15 after 1201h. This will not apply to predictions on the night of 1st-2nd if the 2nd verifies, instead the partial 0305h to 0600h will be 17 and anything 0601h and later will have the 15 cap applied.

    NormaL is already basically screwed ... or else I am ...

    NormaL _______ 6.8 __ 18.0 __ --6.5 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 11.0 17th

    MT Cranium ____4.5 __ 15.5 __ --11.0 __ 215 __ 070 __ 10.2


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 4.9 __ 14.1 __ -12.0 __ 90 __ 90 __ 11.6c

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____4.8 __ 14.9 __ -10.0 __ 95 __ 110 __ 10.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo ____4.8 __ 16.1 __ --13.5 __ 110 __ 95 __ 12.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,556 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry_____4.5 ..... 14.7 ..... -7.3 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... 9.0


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____4.7 __ 16.0 __ -10.0 __ 115 __ 085 __ 12.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610 _________ 5.0 __ 15.8__ -10.2 __ 90 __ 110 __ 11.0c


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3___4.9 __ 17.1 __ -8.4__ 120 __ 095 __ 14.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John Mac 5.8 ..... 15.6 ..... -8.9 ..... 103 ..... 102 ..... 14.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ____5.0 __ 13.5 __ --8.0 __ 115 __ 110 __ 12.0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 6.0 ___ 15.7 ___ -9 ___ 92 ___ 115 ___ 10.2


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____5.9 __ 14.8 __ -6.8 __ 125 __ 085 __ 9.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    5.9 __ 17.8 __ -8.8 __ 120 __ 085 __ 14.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir_____ 5.7 ___ 16.7 ___ -7.9 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ 10.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,556 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand wrote: »
    5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

    crap, forgot to put my name in ;)

    Rikand ..... 5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ____4.5 __ 15.9 __ -9.0 __ 91 __ 115 __ 8.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ____6.1__ 17.5 __ --8.1__ 119 __ 092 __ 13.5

    Think I have never before seen all 25 stations in the 22:00 ME's latest reports at -1 and lower. Stay warm and safe everywhere and think about your neighbours.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ____4.5 __ 15.5 __ --10.0 __ 85 __ 95 __ 8.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _________ 3.8c __ 16.4 __ -13.3c __ 150 __ 95 __ 4.9c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_______ 5.8 __ 17.5 __ --8.5 __ 125 __ 85 ___ 13.4 17th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____4.6______16.0°_____-8.0°______80%______100%______9.6°__


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____4.7 __ 16.8 __ -9.2 __ 111 __ 94 __ 6.4

    Apologies for the lateness, having fun in the snow thought it was a leap year... :pac: :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ___5.7 __ 18.9 __ -9.9__ 110 __ 99 __ 12.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Just for future reference, the above two will be -2 for late but no extra penalty applied to min temp score as there has not been a reading close to these predictions overnight.

    The following one, -3 for lateness but also no extra penalty for min score, prediction is beyond already recorded or obvious immediate values.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Sh*te I'm late again.

    JCXBXC_________ 5.2 __ 15.1 __ -10.8 __ 90 __ 90 __ 11.2c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    -7.0C Cork Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for March 2018


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX 17th Claremorris


    NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0


    waterways ____________6.1 _ 17.5 _ --8.1 _ 119 _ 092 ___ 13.5

    Kindred Spirit _________ 6.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___ 10.2

    200motels ____________5.9 _ 17.8 _ --8.8 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 14.8

    DOCARCH ____________ 5.9 _ 14.8 _ --6.8 _ 125 _ 085 ____ 9.9

    Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 17.5 _ --8.5 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 13.4

    John Mac _____________ 5.8 _ 15.6 _ --8.9 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 14.0

    Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 5.7 _ 18.9 _ --9.9 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 12.3

    Tae laidir _____________ 5.7 _ 16.7 _ --7.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 10.5

    JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _--10.8 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.2

    adam240610 __________ 5.0 _ 15.8 _--10.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11.0

    Rikand _______________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --9.9 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12.0

    Dasa29 _______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --8.0 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.0


    Con Sensus ___________ 5.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11.1


    sunflower3 ____________ 4.9 _ 17.1 _ --8.4 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 14.0

    sryanbruen ____________4.9 _ 14.1 _--12.0 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.6

    sdanseo ______________ 4.8 _ 16.1 _--13.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0

    Bsal __________________4.8 _ 14.9 _--10.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.0

    Dacogawa _____ (-2) ____4.7 _ 16.8 _ --9.2 _ 111 _ 094 ____ 6.4

    Lumi _________________ 4.7 _ 16.0 _--10.0 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 12.2

    MrSkinner _____________ 4.6 _ 16.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 9.6

    Rameire _______________4.5 _ 15.9 _ --9.0 _ 091 _ 115 ____ 8.8

    mickger844posts ________4.5 _ 15.5 _--10.0 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 8.2

    MT Cranium ____________4.5 _ 15.5 _--11.0 _ 215 _ 070 ___ 10.2

    pauldry _______________ 4.5 _ 14.7 _ --7.3 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 9.0

    BLIZZARD7 ____________3.8 _ 16.4 _--13.3 _ 150 _ 095 ____ 4.9

    ______________________________________________________________

    Welcome to Adam 240610 and good luck all !


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Just have noticed that in rainfall

    Casement has 16.0mm but Dublin Airport has 132mm

    Is this a misprint?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    pauldry wrote: »
    Just have noticed that in rainfall

    Casement has 16.0mm but Dublin Airport has 132mm

    Is this a misprint?


    For what date?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    For the month of March

    Now monthly is 106.8mm for Dublin ...its changed

    but Casement a mere 16.1mm


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