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March 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Here comes the March 2018 contest, good luck ...

1. Predict the IMT (mean of five locations, 1981-2010 normal value was 6.8 C).

2. Predict the MAX (highest value at met.ie regular reporting locations)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest value at met.ie regular reporting locations)

4. Predict the PRC (as a percentage of normal), average of eleven locations

5. Predict the SUN (as a percentage of normal), average of six locations

6. BONUS -- Predict the maximum temperature for the 17th at Claremorris.

Deadline is 0300h on Thursday, 1st of March. Usual penalties will apply. On top of those, any MIN forecast submitted after the same value is recorded can only score a maximum of 15/20, if I feel that a close estimate that later verifies to score 16 to 19, that will also be reduced to 15.

(e.g., there's an hourly report of -10 on 2nd of March, you enter after that with -10.2 guessing the decimal, and actual is -9.9, raw score of 17 goes to 15).

This applies whether you actually consulted the data or not to protect the on time entrants (because we can't tell that).

Note: Slightly late entries on 1st will have a sliding value capping the score, the reduced score cap will be 18 from 0305h to 0600h, 17 for 0601 to 1200h and 15 after 1201h. This will not apply to predictions on the night of 1st-2nd if the 2nd verifies, instead the partial 0305h to 0600h will be 17 and anything 0601h and later will have the 15 cap applied.

NormaL is already basically screwed ... or else I am ...

NormaL _______ 6.8 __ 18.0 __ --6.5 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 11.0 17th

MT Cranium ____4.5 __ 15.5 __ --11.0 __ 215 __ 070 __ 10.2

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sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 4.9 __ 14.1 __ -12.0 __ 90 __ 90 __ 11.6c

Bsal

Bsal ____4.8 __ 14.9 __ -10.0 __ 95 __ 110 __ 10.0

sdanseo

sdanseo ____4.8 __ 16.1 __ --13.5 __ 110 __ 95 __ 12.0

Rikand

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

pauldry

pauldry_____4.5 ..... 14.7 ..... -7.3 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... 9.0

Lumi

Lumi ____4.7 __ 16.0 __ -10.0 __ 115 __ 085 __ 12.2

adam240610

adam240610 _________ 5.0 __ 15.8__ -10.2 __ 90 __ 110 __ 11.0c

sunflower3

Sunflower3___4.9 __ 17.1 __ -8.4__ 120 __ 095 __ 14.0

John mac

John Mac 5.8 ..... 15.6 ..... -8.9 ..... 103 ..... 102 ..... 14.0

dasa29

Dasa29 ____5.0 __ 13.5 __ --8.0 __ 115 __ 110 __ 12.0

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 6.0 ___ 15.7 ___ -9 ___ 92 ___ 115 ___ 10.2

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____5.9 __ 14.8 __ -6.8 __ 125 __ 085 __ 9.9

200motels

5.9 __ 17.8 __ -8.8 __ 120 __ 085 __ 14.8

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_____ 5.7 ___ 16.7 ___ -7.9 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ 10.5

Rikand

Rikand wrote: »

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

crap, forgot to put my name in

Rikand ..... 5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.9 ..... 90 ..... 120 ..... 12.0

rameire

Rameire ____4.5 __ 15.9 __ -9.0 __ 91 __ 115 __ 8.8

waterways

waterways ____6.1__ 17.5 __ --8.1__ 119 __ 092 __ 13.5

Think I have never before seen all 25 stations in the 22:00 ME's latest reports at -1 and lower. Stay warm and safe everywhere and think about your neighbours.

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____4.5 __ 15.5 __ --10.0 __ 85 __ 95 __ 8.2

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _________ 3.8c __ 16.4 __ -13.3c __ 150 __ 95 __ 4.9c

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_______ 5.8 __ 17.5 __ --8.5 __ 125 __ 85 ___ 13.4 17th

mrskinner

Skinner_____4.6______16.0°_____-8.0°______80%______100%______9.6°__

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____4.7 __ 16.8 __ -9.2 __ 111 __ 94 __ 6.4

Apologies for the lateness, having fun in the snow thought it was a leap year... :pac:

Joe Public

Joe Public ___5.7 __ 18.9 __ -9.9__ 110 __ 99 __ 12.3

M.T. Cranium

Just for future reference, the above two will be -2 for late but no extra penalty applied to min temp score as there has not been a reading close to these predictions overnight.

The following one, -3 for lateness but also no extra penalty for min score, prediction is beyond already recorded or obvious immediate values.

JCX BXC

Sh*te I'm late again.

JCXBXC_________ 5.2 __ 15.1 __ -10.8 __ 90 __ 90 __ 11.2c

Joe Public

-7.0C Cork Airport

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2018

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX 17th Claremorris

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0

waterways ____________6.1 _ 17.5 _ --8.1 _ 119 _ 092 ___ 13.5

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___ 10.2

200motels ____________5.9 _ 17.8 _ --8.8 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 14.8

DOCARCH ____________ 5.9 _ 14.8 _ --6.8 _ 125 _ 085 ____ 9.9

Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 17.5 _ --8.5 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 13.4

John Mac _____________ 5.8 _ 15.6 _ --8.9 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 14.0

Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 5.7 _ 18.9 _ --9.9 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 12.3

Tae laidir _____________ 5.7 _ 16.7 _ --7.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 10.5

JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _--10.8 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.2

adam240610 __________ 5.0 _ 15.8 _--10.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11.0

Rikand _______________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --9.9 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12.0

Dasa29 _______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --8.0 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.0

Con Sensus ___________ 5.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11.1

sunflower3 ____________ 4.9 _ 17.1 _ --8.4 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 14.0

sryanbruen ____________4.9 _ 14.1 _--12.0 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.6

sdanseo ______________ 4.8 _ 16.1 _--13.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0

Bsal __________________4.8 _ 14.9 _--10.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.0

Dacogawa _____ (-2) ____4.7 _ 16.8 _ --9.2 _ 111 _ 094 ____ 6.4

Lumi _________________ 4.7 _ 16.0 _--10.0 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 12.2

MrSkinner _____________ 4.6 _ 16.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 9.6

Rameire _______________4.5 _ 15.9 _ --9.0 _ 091 _ 115 ____ 8.8

mickger844posts ________4.5 _ 15.5 _--10.0 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 8.2

MT Cranium ____________4.5 _ 15.5 _--11.0 _ 215 _ 070 ___ 10.2

pauldry _______________ 4.5 _ 14.7 _ --7.3 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 9.0

BLIZZARD7 ____________3.8 _ 16.4 _--13.3 _ 150 _ 095 ____ 4.9

______________________________________________________________

Welcome to Adam 240610 and good luck all !

pauldry

Just have noticed that in rainfall

Casement has 16.0mm but Dublin Airport has 132mm

Is this a misprint?

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Just have noticed that in rainfall

Casement has 16.0mm but Dublin Airport has 132mm

Is this a misprint?

For what date?

pauldry

For the month of March

Now monthly is 106.8mm for Dublin ...its changed

but Casement a mere 16.1mm