Irish Grand National 2018

Gavin "shels" · 22-02-2018 2:00am #1

Weights out today - was hoping for slightly bigger than 12s on Folsom Blue tbh.

Tiger Roll at 20s depending what route they go. (Already mentioned him as my pick so far for Aintree).

Few interesting McManus horses too - potential plot ones like he loves.

http://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2018_ONOR063.PDF?id=2

Whiplash85 · 22-02-2018 10:34am

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Weights out today - was hoping for slightly bigger than 12s on Folsom Blue tbh.

Tiger Roll at 20s depending what route they go. (Already mentioned him as my pick so far for Aintree).

Few interesting McManus horses too - potential plot ones like he loves.

http://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2018_ONOR063.PDF?id=2

I think 12s is a fair price and we know he will run. In fact I think theres a bit of juice in that price. He had a gruelling hurdle race in Sandown only 7 days before his trial win so I definitely think he is open to more improvement. It will be interesting to see do they put a claimer on board or persist with Jack. He is up 9lbs now. I think Tiger Roll will take same route as Cause of Causes last year. Cross country and Aintree grand national.

piplip87 · 22-02-2018 11:29am

American is an interesting entry. 20/1 is a decent price. Ucello Conti is one I continue to back but could be in the mix in Aintree.

Francie Barrett · 22-02-2018 11:32am

Bonny Kate is carrying very little weight and if the long range weather forecasts are in anyway accurate, then I think this has a cracking chance. No bet yet, but if a bookie went 50/1 then I'd be inclined to have a go.

danganabu · 22-02-2018 2:28pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Tiger Roll at 20s depending what route they go. (Already mentioned him as my pick so far for Aintree).

http://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2018_ONOR063.PDF?id=2

Cant see Tiger Roll turning up, he will be running in the Cheltenham Cross Country and to run in an Irish National less than 3 weeks later would be madness and even if he did effectively ruin his chances. The extra two weeks to Aintree would make alot more sense for me. Obviously all depends on a) if he definitely goes to Cheltenham and b) how he fares in the cross country.

danganabu · 22-02-2018 2:34pm

piplip87 wrote: »

American is an interesting entry. 20/1 is a decent price. Ucello Conti is one I continue to back but could be in the mix in Aintree.

American was definitely the one that caught my eye, but I when I went looking for quotes and updates from Harry Fry on the horse it put me very much off, I dont think he will take up either entry in the nationals and will be put away until next season and soft ground. He was intended runner last year in Punchestown but was taken out because of the going.

Nulty · 20-03-2018 4:05pm

Children's List is my pick for this assuming he's not headed for Aintree

RivetingRoger · 20-03-2018 6:59pm

Bellshill the classiest in the field
Doesnt mean it will win, but will back it once it goes 12 or bigger which I presume it will
currently too short at 10s

longshotvalue · 21-03-2018 12:00am

Hoping for an improvement in the state of the Ground for huge priced fancy for this.

Gavin "shels" · 26-03-2018 9:02am

https://juicestorm.com/horse-racing/2017-irish-grand-national-betting-trends/

Love trends for the Nationals. Hoping to get through the card later today with the top trends in the above a 73% strike rate (11/15)

Gavin "shels" · 26-03-2018 12:06pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

https://juicestorm.com/horse-racing/2017-irish-grand-national-betting-trends/

Love trends for the Nationals. Hoping to get through the card later today with the top trends in the above a 73% strike rate (11/15)

Trends:
14/15 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less (Excluded this)
13/15 – Irish bred
12/15 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
11/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
11/15 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously

Out of the 84 left, the ones who fit the 11 trends above:
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

Slattsy · 26-03-2018 10:15pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Trends:
14/15 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less (Excluded this)
13/15 – Irish bred
12/15 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
11/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
11/15 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously

Out of the 84 left, the ones who fit the 11 trends above:
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

Interesting..... 2 i fancy in that lot.

Of the above, who's guaranteed to run though?

Gavin "shels" · 27-03-2018 12:12am

No idea tbh.

Who's your two?

Justin10 · 28-03-2018 7:54pm

If anyone has any boylesports complimentary tickets, they're not using, I'd glady use them.

Gavin "shels" · 29-03-2018 10:43am

Gavin shels wrote: »

Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

So just two gone from the list above so far.

danganabu · 29-03-2018 10:51am

Gavin shels wrote: »

So just two gone from the list above so far.

My big fancy still there but I'm entrigued to know if it is also one of Slattsy's, if so I may need to re-consdier

:p

Slattsy · 29-03-2018 11:14am

danganabu wrote: »

My big fancy still there but I'm entrigued to know if it is also one of Slattsy's, if so I may need to re-consdier :p

danganabu · 29-03-2018 11:28am

I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours!!

Slattsy · 29-03-2018 2:07pm

I think Poormans Hill could run well and I've no doubt Sutton Manor is better than his current mark.

sweeneed · 29-03-2018 2:11pm

folsum blue will win this by half the track. this was the plan for him all year and he'd have won the welsh national only it got postponed and then he had to pull out. no point trying to be too clever about it looking for big prices in this one!

WickIow Brave · 29-03-2018 2:20pm

Bellshill is running here off 158 and he could run at Aintree off 148. They know.

danganabu · 29-03-2018 2:38pm

Pleasant Company is the one I really like when I think back to his win the Bobbyjo Chase last season of a mark 3lbs higher.

longshotvalue · 29-03-2018 4:30pm

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Bellshill is running here off 158 and he could run at Aintree off 148. They know.

I was looking there a while ago and came to the conclusion that he is value even as fav. Ill still try to find a big priced one against him though.

djPSB · 29-03-2018 4:33pm

Of the current top 30 in the weights, only 9 are not trained/owned by Elliott/Mullins/Giggins town.

Gavin "shels" · 29-03-2018 9:14pm

sweeneed wrote: »

folsum blue will win this by half the track. this was the plan for him all year and he'd have won the welsh national only it got postponed and then he had to pull out. no point trying to be too clever about it looking for big prices in this one!

Lost a chunk on him for the Welsh as I had him AP :mad:

Will definitely be having a small dabble along with a trend horse.

posturingpat · 29-03-2018 9:56pm

sweeneed wrote: »

folsum blue will win this by half the track. this was the plan for him all year and he'd have won the welsh national only it got postponed and then he had to pull out. no point trying to be too clever about it looking for big prices in this one!

Surprised if he places. Too lazy. There's lazy and then there's this boy. Plug on at the end for 6th or 7th.

29-03-2018 10:48pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Lost a chunk on him for the Welsh as I had him AP :mad:

Will definitely be having a small dabble along with a trend horse.

Snap

BumperD · 30-03-2018 1:53am

djPSB wrote: »

Of the current top 30 in the weights, only 9 are not trained/owned by Elliott/Mullins/Giggins town.

Of the 15 Ryanair entries for Sunday only 1 is not trained by them this is not good

Gavin "shels" · 30-03-2018 2:46pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Out of the 84 left, the ones who fit the 11 trends above:
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

Down to 6 which meet the trends...

WickIow Brave · 30-03-2018 2:53pm

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Bellshill is running here off 158 and he could run at Aintree off 148. They know.

Townend on Pairofbrowneyes so maybe they don't know. Or maybe just Paul doesn't know. Or maybe they don't want us to know that they know. Much to ponder.

show me the money.1 · 30-03-2018 3:27pm

I fancy isleofhopendreams to be at least placed in this 20/1 and 6 places with Paddy Power.

Irish Grand National 2018

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