Irish Grand National 2018

Gavin "shels"

Weights out today - was hoping for slightly bigger than 12s on Folsom Blue tbh.

Tiger Roll at 20s depending what route they go. (Already mentioned him as my pick so far for Aintree).

Few interesting McManus horses too - potential plot ones like he loves.

http://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2018_ONOR063.PDF?id=2

Whiplash85

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Weights out today - was hoping for slightly bigger than 12s on Folsom Blue tbh.

Tiger Roll at 20s depending what route they go. (Already mentioned him as my pick so far for Aintree).

Few interesting McManus horses too - potential plot ones like he loves.

http://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2018_ONOR063.PDF?id=2

I think 12s is a fair price and we know he will run. In fact I think theres a bit of juice in that price. He had a gruelling hurdle race in Sandown only 7 days before his trial win so I definitely think he is open to more improvement. It will be interesting to see do they put a claimer on board or persist with Jack. He is up 9lbs now. I think Tiger Roll will take same route as Cause of Causes last year. Cross country and Aintree grand national.

piplip87

American is an interesting entry. 20/1 is a decent price. Ucello Conti is one I continue to back but could be in the mix in Aintree.

Francie Barrett

Bonny Kate is carrying very little weight and if the long range weather forecasts are in anyway accurate, then I think this has a cracking chance. No bet yet, but if a bookie went 50/1 then I'd be inclined to have a go.

danganabu

Gavin shels wrote: »

Tiger Roll at 20s depending what route they go. (Already mentioned him as my pick so far for Aintree).



http://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2018_ONOR063.PDF?id=2

Cant see Tiger Roll turning up, he will be running in the Cheltenham Cross Country and to run in an Irish National less than 3 weeks later would be madness and even if he did effectively ruin his chances. The extra two weeks to Aintree would make alot more sense for me. Obviously all depends on a) if he definitely goes to Cheltenham and b) how he fares in the cross country.

danganabu

piplip87 wrote: »

American is an interesting entry. 20/1 is a decent price. Ucello Conti is one I continue to back but could be in the mix in Aintree.

American was definitely the one that caught my eye, but I when I went looking for quotes and updates from Harry Fry on the horse it put me very much off, I dont think he will take up either entry in the nationals and will be put away until next season and soft ground. He was intended runner last year in Punchestown but was taken out because of the going.

Nulty

Children's List is my pick for this assuming he's not headed for Aintree

RivetingRoger

Bellshill the classiest in the field
Doesnt mean it will win, but will back it once it goes 12 or bigger which I presume it will
currently too short at 10s

longshotvalue

Hoping for an improvement in the state of the Ground for huge priced fancy for this.

Gavin "shels"

https://juicestorm.com/horse-racing/2017-irish-grand-national-betting-trends/

Love trends for the Nationals. Hoping to get through the card later today with the top trends in the above a 73% strike rate (11/15)

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

https://juicestorm.com/horse-racing/2017-irish-grand-national-betting-trends/

Love trends for the Nationals. Hoping to get through the card later today with the top trends in the above a 73% strike rate (11/15)

Trends:
14/15 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less (Excluded this)
13/15 – Irish bred
12/15 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
11/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
11/15 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously

Out of the 84 left, the ones who fit the 11 trends above:
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

Slattsy

Gavin shels wrote: »

Trends:
14/15 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less (Excluded this)
13/15 – Irish bred
12/15 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
11/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
11/15 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously

Out of the 84 left, the ones who fit the 11 trends above:
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

Interesting..... 2 i fancy in that lot.

Of the above, who's guaranteed to run though?

Gavin "shels"

No idea tbh.

Who's your two?

Justin10

If anyone has any boylesports complimentary tickets, they're not using, I'd glady use them.

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

So just two gone from the list above so far.

danganabu

Gavin shels wrote: »

So just two gone from the list above so far.

My big fancy still there but I'm entrigued to know if it is also one of Slattsy's, if so I may need to re-consdier :p

Slattsy

danganabu wrote: »

My big fancy still there but I'm entrigued to know if it is also one of Slattsy's, if so I may need to re-consdier :p

danganabu

I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours!!

Slattsy

I think Poormans Hill could run well and I've no doubt Sutton Manor is better than his current mark.

sweeneed

folsum blue will win this by half the track. this was the plan for him all year and he'd have won the welsh national only it got postponed and then he had to pull out. no point trying to be too clever about it looking for big prices in this one!

WickIow Brave

Bellshill is running here off 158 and he could run at Aintree off 148. They know.

danganabu

Pleasant Company is the one I really like when I think back to his win the Bobbyjo Chase last season of a mark 3lbs higher.

longshotvalue

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Bellshill is running here off 158 and he could run at Aintree off 148. They know.

I was looking there a while ago and came to the conclusion that he is value even as fav. Ill still try to find a big priced one against him though.

djPSB

Of the current top 30 in the weights, only 9 are not trained/owned by Elliott/Mullins/Giggins town.

Gavin "shels"

sweeneed wrote: »

folsum blue will win this by half the track. this was the plan for him all year and he'd have won the welsh national only it got postponed and then he had to pull out. no point trying to be too clever about it looking for big prices in this one!

Lost a chunk on him for the Welsh as I had him AP :mad:

Will definitely be having a small dabble along with a trend horse.

posturingpat

sweeneed wrote: »

folsum blue will win this by half the track. this was the plan for him all year and he'd have won the welsh national only it got postponed and then he had to pull out. no point trying to be too clever about it looking for big prices in this one!

Surprised if he places. Too lazy. There's lazy and then there's this boy. Plug on at the end for 6th or 7th.

Gavin shels

Gavin shels wrote: »

Lost a chunk on him for the Welsh as I had him AP :mad:

Will definitely be having a small dabble along with a trend horse.

Snap

BumperD

djPSB wrote: »

Of the current top 30 in the weights, only 9 are not trained/owned by Elliott/Mullins/Giggins town.

Of the 15 Ryanair entries for Sunday only 1 is not trained by them this is not good

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Out of the 84 left, the ones who fit the 11 trends above:
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Shattered Love
Jetstream Jack
Call It Magic
Bonny Kate
Sutton Manor
Westerner Point
Pylonthepressure
Wounder Warrior
Killaro Boy
Drumconnor Lad
Phil's Magic
Poormans Hill

Down to 6 which meet the trends...

WickIow Brave

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Bellshill is running here off 158 and he could run at Aintree off 148. They know.

Townend on Pairofbrowneyes so maybe they don't know. Or maybe just Paul doesn't know. Or maybe they don't want us to know that they know. Much to ponder.

show me the money.1

I fancy isleofhopendreams to be at least placed in this 20/1 and 6 places with Paddy Power.

CheltenhamJ

Forever gold at 50 will do for me

Nulty

Forever Gold for me too. 50s is big and he has fewer stamina concerns than most.

sdoc13

CheltenhamJ wrote:

Forever gold at 50 will do for me

Nulty wrote:

Forever Gold for me too. 50s is big and he has fewer stamina concerns than most.

Plus 1 here. Missed the 50s but 40s still looks value

supremenovice

Isn't it odd that Geraghty rides a Gigginstown horse Lord Scoundrel even though McManus has two in It?

Hang on..he can't do the weight on the other two, would that be It?

kiers47

supremenovice wrote: »

Isn't it odd that Geraghty rides a Gigginstown horse Lord Scoundrel even though McManus has two in It?

Hang on..he can't do the weight on the other two, would that be It?

Spot on. Not sure exactly but I think his basement weight is probably about 10-6 possibly 10-4 at an absolute stretch. But ya no chance of him getting near 9-10

posturingpat

posturingpat wrote: »

Surprised if he places. Too lazy. There's lazy and then there's this boy. Plug on at the end for 6th or 7th.

With the ground looking heavy yesterday and the deluge of rain overnight I now withdraw this previous statement.

munster87

Also on Forever Gold, nice to see some support on here

meath4sam

munster87 wrote: »

Also on Forever Gold, nice to see some support on here

Trainer tipped it on RTÉ yesterday.

Slattsy

Gonna need to stay about 6 miles in this ground. It aint stopped raining since 2am last night.

Slattsy

I've backed Dounikos and Sutton Manor in the big one.

Also like Noel Meades Vision Dete in the 3.15. Plenty to find with lots of these, but hence he has a very low weight in this sort of ground, which he'll love, and should benefit from the step up in trip also. I think 10s is fair.

gazza1

I'm on the FOREVER GOLD train too and have also backed FOLSUM BLUE.

Others I've had a nibble on are

2.45 Sayar 8s ew
3.15 Vision D'ete 10s ew
4.25 Coney Island 5s
5.45 Out Sam

Gonna be tough out there today and let's hope there are no casualties

BOL

CH3OH

spotted in the Elliott yard this morning:

Rock Lesnar

Heading up to it today and have already backed, Folsom Blue, Monbeg Notorious and Westerner Point in the national, and done a lucky 15 with Folsom Blue, Icario, Diamond Couchois and Space Cadet.

Elliott day

Edit: Icario a non runner

longshotvalue

Irish National
I’ve had Lord Scoundrel down to be my biggest bet of the year for this for a while now, but the ground has probably gone against him for me to be as sure as I was before. He is a class animal at his best and is on a mark which he can certainly win off. I’ll still go for him at a huge price just in case but it’ll be a much-reduced bet. I have a sneaking fancy also the Paparrazi kid might run a big race at a huge price. He’ll go on the ground and should stay the trip, 66/1 is too big. My third selection represents the very good Irish Novice form. Snow Falcon is racing here of a mark that will well below his near top class 3 mile hurdles form and his run last time when he went after Monalee too early looks good now given all those horses good runs since. The fact that he didn’t go to Cheltenham is a big advantage and 25/1 looks a nice bit of value.
1 Point ew 50/1 6 places paddy/sky Lord Scoundrel
1 Point ew 66/1 6 Places paddy/sky Paparrazi Kid
1 Point ew 25/1 6 places paddy.sky Snow Falcon

piplip87

Mal Dini
Snow Falcon Ew
Bless the Wings Ew.

Also had a bet on Bapume today at 22/1. I don't know what's went wrong this year but looked like a too class horse last year. Hopefully can sneak a place.

Peintre Celebre

Augusta Kate must be one of the worst campaigned horses in the country. Willy insists on running her over three miles but looks a blatant non stayer. Would have beaten Presenting percy two runs back but didnt get home after travelling like the winner fown to the last and finished ahead of Diamond cuchois who is a quarter of her price today. Back to 2 1/2 she is absolutely huge at 12s.

Nulty

Forge Meadow for me in the Strawberry. 12s last night

With the continued rainfall I think Folsom Blue will revel in conditions here. He's my saver in the National.

Nulty

Goulane Davina was a horse who caught my attention at Leopardstown at Christmas and was looking forward to seeing him go up to 3m. Totally missed him run over 3m last time. I'll have a pop at him today at 10/1 in the 5.45

Chesty08

Pete So High 2.10
Vision D’Ete 3.15
Folsom Blue 5.00
Poor mans Hill 5.45
Getaway John 6.15

E/W L31

gooseygander

Mall Dini and Sutton Manor are my 2 for swimming contest that will be national.