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Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2018

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,438 ✭✭✭ 17-pdr


    Gita still a pretty well organised system with 1 minute winds of around 120 mph. Due to steadily weaken in the next few days though. May affect NZ towards the end of its run. Will be TS strength by then.

    441781.jpg


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    023533_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Now Tropical Storm Lane expected to intensify rapidly in the coming days. NHC
    Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
    800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

    ...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER...
    ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...10.4N 125.6W
    ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
    located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 125.6 West. Lane is
    moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
    motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days
    followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lane is
    forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, and a major hurricane
    by Saturday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Category 4 Hurricane Lane
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 24
    NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
    1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

    ...POWERFUL LANE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND MAY BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...13.6N 149.1W
    ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
    ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    EP142018_3day_cone_no_line_27.png
    Discussion 27
    1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
    Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
    damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
    rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
    islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along
    exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been
    issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical
    Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight.

    2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
    the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
    if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
    remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
    the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
    monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 21/1500Z 14.1N 152.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
    12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
    24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
    36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
    48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
    96H 25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Category 5 Hurricane Lane
    WTPA32 PHFO 220553
    TCPCP2

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
    NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
    800 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

    ...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...14.5N 154.1W
    ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
    ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Hawaii County

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
    Kahoolawe
    * Oahu

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
    force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
    or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
    rushed to completion.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
    the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
    conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

    Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
    Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
    the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
    Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by the National Weather Service office in
    Honolulu Hawaii.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
    Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude
    154.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
    km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward
    the northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the
    north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
    Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
    Thursday through Saturday.

    Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
    increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
    a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
    Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
    forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
    Hawaiian Islands.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
    miles (220 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
    Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
    early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
    somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
    Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
    late Thursday night into Friday.

    RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
    to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
    the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
    expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
    isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

    SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
    Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
    across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
    swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
    exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

    $$
    Forecaster Powell


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Surely this is a Cyclone?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    The track of Lane is slightly closer to the Hawaiian islands on the latest run with a sharp turn West still expected near the islands on Friday. It is due to gradually weaken from shear but still poses a big threat from rain, wind and storm surge. Total rain accumulations 250mm to 500mm forecast with isloated up to 750mm, storm surge up to 1.2m on South and West coasts near the centre of Lane.

    Lane Satellite images
    Hurricane / Typhoon:
    A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline.
    http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/glossary.php


  • Registered Users Posts: 632 Rhineshark


    Lane hasn't even fully arrived yet but the town of Hilo on Big Island has already recorded 12inches of rain.

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-lane-live-updates-hawaii-latest-oahu-flash-flooding-fema-landslides-winds-rain-a8503921.html%3famp

    Hawaii really isn't prepared for this. It's very unusual anyway so it's not really built for this sort of thing. There's shelter space for about 270k people out of 1.4m but most of the shelters are apparently not really built for this sort of wind strength either. And the islands have a relatively large homeless population that mostly live near the beaches. This could end up being another Puerto Rico, God help them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,376 ✭✭✭ Reckless Abandonment


    Have been lucky enough to go to Hawaii a few times. Honolulu sits right on the coast (famous Waikiki beach) Lane is going to send one hell of a storm surge right at it. 20/30 story hotels right on the coast. I mean 20ft from it and not that high up either. Between rain and storm surge it could do a lot of damage. Pearl harbour is very close to the city to.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Flash flooding and mudslides very worrying risk with the heavy rainfall accumulations expected:
    https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1032717416650891264
    There is still the danger that Lane would make landfall or come very close to one or more of the islands
    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032714569473581056


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    vis0-lalo.gif

    WTPA42 PHFO 232109
    TCDCP2

    Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37
    NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
    1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

    Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning,
    even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed
    by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite
    imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a
    relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four
    centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and
    SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for
    this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative.

    This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
    to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
    The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
    southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
    east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
    around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
    expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
    the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
    Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
    is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
    this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
    west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
    occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
    12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
    the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
    consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
    in better agreement with the ECMWF.


    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
    intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
    Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
    center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
    real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
    severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
    the center.

    2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
    a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
    These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
    terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

    3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
    prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
    expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
    landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

    4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
    shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
    localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
    of damaging surf.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
    24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
    48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster R Ballard
    For flooding in a high rise building:
    https://twitter.com/femaregion9/status/1032731440734076929


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Hurricane Lane has weakened heading North towards Honolulu, 245km away at 7km/h but is forecast to turn West before getting there. With the slow forward motion, the rainfall totals are the main concern at the moment. Maximum sustained wind of 165km/h, min central pressure 966mb. Category 2 Hurricane, with weakening forecast to continue.

    Brush fire on Maui.
    https://twitter.com/CNNweather/status/1033024726007013376


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,119 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    Hurricane Lane has been downgraded to a Tropical storm with sustained gusts of about 70mph

    However, the rainfall is still a serious threat with some places having experienced 36 inches of rain already and with the slow pace of the system, there could be major flooding event


    Earlier this year, Hawaii broke the USA's 24 hour rainfall record at 49 inches in a 24 hour period.

    Another major flood event within the same year would be more evidence that climate change is seriously ramping up extreme precipitation events.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Lane
    https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1033166662642487296

    Eastern Pacific
    Tropical Depression 15-E is forecast to become a Hurricane in 36 to 48 hours .

    https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1033694316726759429
    Taiwan looking at heavy rainfall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,119 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    Ex Hurricane Lane is still affecting Hawaii with devastating flooding and is likely to be the 3rd highest rainfall event in since records began in 1950 dropping more than 51.53 inches of rain on the Mountain view area.

    The previous record for Hawaii was in 1950 with 52 inches of rain. If Mountain View gets more rain today from this system, that record could still be broken.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-hawaii-endures-devastating-flooding-as-lane-drops-third-highest-us-tropical-rain-total/70005887


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,119 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    Ex Hurricane Lane is now likely have beaten Hawaii's record rainfall total of 52 inches of rainfall recorded in 1950.

    This would be the 2nd highest ever recorded rainfall event in US history beaten only by Harvey almost 1 year ago.

    The preliminary rainfall total from Mountain View is 52.02 inches, but there are other reports of almost 59 inches from a private weather station which is in the process of being verified.
    NOHW40 PHFO 280105
    PNSHFO
    HIZ001>028-281315-

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
    305 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018

    ...LANE POSSIBLY BREAKS HAWAII TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL
    RECORD...

    THE MOUNTAIN VIEW GAGE HAS MEASURED 52.02 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD FROM 8 AM HST AUGUST 22 WHEN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS STARTED
    IMPACTING THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 8 AM HST AUGUST 26 AFTER THE
    TRAILING RAIN BAND PASSED WEST OF SOUTH POINT. AN UNVERIFIED
    PRIVATE WEATHER STATION ALSO REPORTED 58.80 INCHES DURING THIS
    SAME TIME SPAN. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO VALIDATE THIS PRIVATE WEATHER
    STATION REPORT.
    BOTH TOTALS INDICATE THAT HURRICANE LANE HAS
    BROKEN THE HAWAII TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RECORD,
    PENDING VERIFICATION OF THE DATA. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52.00
    INCHES, MEASURED AT KANALOHULUHULU RANGER STATION, DURING
    HURRICANE HIKI IN 1950. THE HURRICANE LANE TOTAL WOULD ALSO MAKE
    IT THE SECOND HIGHEST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE 1950. THE HIGHEST TOTAL IS 60.58
    INCHES, MEASURED AT NEDERLAND, TEXAS, DURING HURRICANE HARVEY IN
    2017.
    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201808280105-PHFO-NOHW40-PNSHFO


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Wow...by a whole 0.02 inches (0.5 mm). Statistically there is no difference. Introducing an extra station that wasnt there in 1950 does not count in such mountainous terrain, where rainfall rates vary hugely in within short distances.

    I wonder how the two total storm total periods compare, i.e. did the 1950 total fall in more or less time than Lane's did?


  • Registered Users Posts: 31 ✭✭✭ Claire6


    Is it too early to say if this *possible category 4* hurricane is actually going to hit Ireland?

    https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1034898106884734976


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,750 ✭✭✭✭ bnt


    Well. the latest GFS run on Tropical Tidbits has that hurricane heading for Greenland and falling apart without much impact on Ireland. I saw another run on there that has it falling apart in mid-Atlantic. "Too soon" is an understatement, this is one for Fantasy Island. :cool:

    Parvi enim sunt foris arma, nisi est consilium domi.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31 ✭✭✭ Claire6


    :(:(:(
    bnt wrote: »
    Well. the latest GFS run on Tropical Tidbits has that hurricane heading for Greenland and falling apart without much impact on Ireland. I saw another run on there that has it falling apart in mid-Atlantic. "Too soon" is an understatement, this is one for Fantasy Island. :cool:


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 310 ✭✭ BlackandGreen


    Typhoon Jebi is hitting Japan hard right now. Biggest typhoon to hit them in 25 years. Japan never seem to get a break when it comes to natural disasters. 

    https://twitter.com/madikichi_japan/status/1036900082098962432?s=19

    Kansai airport is also completely flooded. Not only that but a large tanker ship has crashed into the bridge connecting the airport to land and severed some of it. 
    https://twitter.com/golden_sugi/status/1036944844768272384
    https://twitter.com/nhk_seikatsu/status/1036905876915773440


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    Thats some scary typhoon right there. Surprised people were even in that shopping center like thing


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Kansai Airport had a gust of 58.1 m/s (209 kph).


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Category 4 Hurricane Olivia is a concern for Hawaii, though still significant time to go yet. Distinct eye.
    vis0.gif
    LOCATION...19.1N 129.7W
    ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
    023349_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Graphic archive


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    "Mangkhut" is forecast to approach Guam as a Typhoon next week and continue to strengthen potentially to super typhoon.
    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038121653149069313


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Eye of the storm for the island of Rota just North of Guam.
    https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1039069116680876037
    Typhoon Mangkhut is forecast to be heading to the North of the Philippines.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Tropical storm warning for parts of Hawaii in anticipation of Olivia which is a Hurricane at present but is due to weaken before it gets there.
    CPHC
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
    warning area starting late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area starting early Wednesday morning.

    RAINFALL: Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
    of 10 to 15 inches. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are
    possible, especially over windward sections of Maui County and the
    Big Island. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
    flooding.

    SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will spread from east to
    west across the Hawaiian Islands early this week. This will cause
    surf to build along exposed east facing shorelines as Olivia
    approaches. This surf may become damaging across parts of the state.
    EP172018_5day_cone_no_line_40.png


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