HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area starting late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting early Wednesday morning. RAINFALL: Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible, especially over windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will spread from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands early this week. This will cause surf to build along exposed east facing shorelines as Olivia approaches. This surf may become damaging across parts of the state.
LOCATION...19.1N 129.7W ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
bnt wrote: » Well. the latest GFS run on Tropical Tidbits has that hurricane heading for Greenland and falling apart without much impact on Ireland. I saw another run on there that has it falling apart in mid-Atlantic. "Too soon" is an understatement, this is one for Fantasy Island. :cool:
NOHW40 PHFO 280105 PNSHFO HIZ001>028-281315- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 305 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018 ...LANE POSSIBLY BREAKS HAWAII TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL RECORD...THE MOUNTAIN VIEW GAGE HAS MEASURED 52.02 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD FROM 8 AM HST AUGUST 22 WHEN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS STARTED IMPACTING THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 8 AM HST AUGUST 26 AFTER THE TRAILING RAIN BAND PASSED WEST OF SOUTH POINT. AN UNVERIFIED PRIVATE WEATHER STATION ALSO REPORTED 58.80 INCHES DURING THIS SAME TIME SPAN. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO VALIDATE THIS PRIVATE WEATHER STATION REPORT. BOTH TOTALS INDICATE THAT HURRICANE LANE HAS BROKEN THE HAWAII TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RECORD, PENDING VERIFICATION OF THE DATA. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52.00 INCHES, MEASURED AT KANALOHULUHULU RANGER STATION, DURING HURRICANE HIKI IN 1950. THE HURRICANE LANE TOTAL WOULD ALSO MAKE IT THE SECOND HIGHEST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE 1950. THE HIGHEST TOTAL IS 60.58 INCHES, MEASURED AT NEDERLAND, TEXAS, DURING HURRICANE HARVEY IN 2017.https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201808280105-PHFO-NOHW40-PNSHFO
WTPA42 PHFO 232109 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning, even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative. This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time. The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the 12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be in better agreement with the ECMWF. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from the center. 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds. These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings. 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands. 4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period of damaging surf. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard
Hurricane / Typhoon: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline.
WTPA32 PHFO 220553 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 800 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018 ...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...14.5N 154.1W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe * Oahu A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through Saturday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday. RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines. NEXT ADVISORY Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Powell
1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight. 2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.1N 152.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018 ...POWERFUL LANE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND MAY BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...13.6N 149.1W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...10.4N 125.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 125.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lane is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, and a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
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