The opposite View

longshotvalue

As usual is don't share the same view as everyone else on some of the races this weekend.

1. Samcro - That a race looked terrible . He may be top class but cheltenham on good ground is a completely different. Only thing is he may not have much opposition. Ill be trying to find something that will improve on good ground strong pace. (not easy)
2. Faugheen ran a lot better then most thought. I think there is enough chance that he will find the spark(or whatever willie is calling) that makes the comparison between him 7/1 nrnb and 1/2 the fav seem silly.If the fav isn't 100% i'm not sure anything else can beat him so faugheen may not need to be 100%. 1/2 is too short given everything that can go wrong. The horses to fear arn't running in the race Apples, or Supasunday. Value wise if i can get a big enough price on the day its possible the John Constable might be value at 66/1
3. Gold Cup. Im not sure Killultagh would have won, and the big fall is a worry heading into the gold cup. Considering the car crash this race has become the 7/1 about sizing john looks value, but the 33/1 about Djakadam is plain silly. He has been placed 3 times in the race and looks sure to improve on the day. He ran as well as he ever did at Leopardstown sunday and if he just runs his normal race in the gold cup with all the questions about most ahead of him in the betting anything could happen. 33/1 nrnb is too big
4. Ive convinced myself that Rhinestone wins the bumper. Will improve for good ground and should turn the form around from the weekend. Bumpers arn't my strong point but he looks the most likely winner.
5. Footpad looks exceptional but considering the jumping and possibly not really going after it Petit Mouchoir may be very close come Arkle day.
6. Monalee looks a tough horse and perhaps is suited to the RSA but they were much to close together and something silly could happen in that race. Fountains Windfall looks very good to me but impossible to tell yet.

stretchaq

Sssshhhh Aidan I have being backing rhinestone don't give the game away!!! Agree completely on faugheen

WickIow Brave

Samcro is top class, there's no question about that. He'll improve as much for a strong pace and good ground. His actions suggests good ground would be no problem. How was the Deloitte terrible? The opposition is irrelevant anyway. The second fav could be rated 140 or 160, Samcro will lie up with the pace and he'll go and win when he's asked to. The opposition at Cheltenham will be pretty much the same level as the Deloitte and it will be the same result.

I'd agree on Monalee, they all kind of finished in a heap. I'd be looking for something at a bigger price. Fountains Windfall is class.

Might Bite at 3/1 is the best value in the Gold Cup without a doubt. Keeps winning yet seems to be questioned all the time. He was going to absolutely destroy Whisper who nearly won the Ladbrokes Trophy off 158. Might Bite is a 180+ horse imo. He would have given Denman a rattle in 2008. I cannot believe he is 3/1. He is a f##king beast of a thing. So many people are against him and I can't understand it. A lot of people are putting up Sizing John who was tailed off on his last run and whose best form is a few lengths defeat of Minella Rocco in a steadily run race. Edwulf has arguably better form than Sizing John.

WickIow Brave

Actually that was so disrespectful of Denman I retract that sentence. Got carried away there lol. My point still stands, Might Bite is a stone clear of the field in the Gold Cup. He is some vehicle.

lemush

It was more disrespectful to Kauto Star who Denman absolutely pulverized that day!!

WickIow Brave

A lot of people are saying that Petit Mouchoir could reverse the form with Footpad and I can't see it myself. PM beat Footpad over hurdles but it's patently obvious that Footpad is just a different animal over fences whereas PM is probably at a similar level. I thought Townend went way too quick aswell, if he'd gone a bit steadier Footpad would have won very convincingly imo. Footpad isn't a bet in the Arkle but neither is PM because everyone will have the idea of PM thinking he'll come on a lot and he can reverse and he'll be too short and he won't reverse. I'd look at something like Saint Calvados.

WickIow Brave

lemush wrote: »

It was more disrespectful to Kauto Star who Denman absolutely pulverized that day!!

Yeah, Denman was unbelievable that day. I can't believe I said that lol. I'll put it this way though, if there was no Might Bite and Whisper was running in the Gold Cup, I would back Whisper. Whisper's RSA performance would have won the Gold Cup last year imo. I don't think there are many horses who could beat Bellshill over 3 miles on good ground by 10 lengths.

WickIow Brave

aidankkk wrote: »

As usual is don't share the same view as everyone else on some of the races this weekend.

1. Samcro - That a race looked terrible . He may be top class but cheltenham on good ground is a completely different. Only thing is he may not have much opposition. Ill be trying to find something that will improve on good ground strong pace. (not easy)
2. Faugheen ran a lot better then most thought. I think there is enough chance that he will find the spark(or whatever willie is calling) that makes the comparison between him 7/1 nrnb and 1/2 the fav seem silly.If the fav isn't 100% i'm not sure anything else can beat him so faugheen may not need to be 100%. 1/2 is too short given everything that can go wrong. The horses to fear arn't running in the race Apples, or Supasunday. Value wise if i can get a big enough price on the day its possible the John Constable might be value at 66/1
3. Gold Cup. Im not sure Killultagh would have won, and the big fall is a worry heading into the gold cup. Considering the car crash this race has become the 7/1 about sizing john looks value, but the 33/1 about Djakadam is plain silly. He has been placed 3 times in the race and looks sure to improve on the day. He ran as well as he ever did at Leopardstown sunday and if he just runs his normal race in the gold cup with all the questions about most ahead of him in the betting anything could happen. 33/1 nrnb is too big
4. Ive convinced myself that Rhinestone wins the bumper. Will improve for good ground and should turn the form around from the weekend. Bumpers arn't my strong point but he looks the most likely winner.
5. Footpad looks exceptional but considering the jumping and possibly not really going after it Petit Mouchoir may be very close come Arkle day.
6. Monalee looks a tough horse and perhaps is suited to the RSA but they were much to close together and something silly could happen in that race. Fountains Windfall looks very good to me but impossible to tell yet.

If you are looking for a horse to take on Samcro then I'd say Paloma Blue 20s (if Samcro runs Supreme) and Duc des Genièvres 14s (if Samcro runs Ballymore) might be the way to go. I thought they both ran cracking races in the Deloitte and they got as close to Samcro as any Novice will get this season. And they're decent enough value. Strong pace will suit both down to the ground aswell.

I'd kind of agree with you on Faugheen. The Champion Hurdle is the only race I'm already financially involved in so anything I say is biased and pocket talk really. I'm against Buveur D'air and I'm against Faugheen and I'm for Melon and I'm not going to convince anyone on Melon!

On the bumper I really fancy Didtheyleaveuoutto. I think he is an absolute tool. He travels like a demon and he will eat the hill. The Leopardstown bumper was very good, although they seem to think Hollowgraphic is their best at Mullins.

madmoose

If you are looking for a CH bet then Verdarna Blue nrnb 40/1 in the wout the fav market is fair on betfair sportbook eachway. Goes the betfair then CH.

Motivator

There’s some unbelievable amount of **** posted on this thread. I’m not even going to bother trying to sieve through it.

longshotvalue

Motivator wrote: »

There’s some unbelievable amount of **** posted on this thread. I’m not even going to bother trying to sieve through it.

That's constructive . There just opinions probably should be keeping to myself .

jimjamcos

I've the same opinion on Faugheen v Buveur D'air. Below-par Faugheen is a bet on what B'Dair has beaten/standard of race.

Samcro's most impressive bumper performance was on the best ground he's faced so he's a good thing imo. Only thing is, given he's got the potential to be a great, if there's any little issue with him at all I could see them pulling him. Elliot is on record as saying he ran Death Duty last year when knowing he hadn't travelled over well and that's the only worry with Samcro too with Elliot unlikely to take the same chance.

Things I also took from weekend.. Given how well Supasundae travelled over 2m, will he fully stay 3m at Cheltenham at championship pace? I'd be keen to take him most of market leaders on and have been backing Bacardys from 25s down (posted in other thread) so hoping to see him back over hurdles soon.

The 3m Novice hurdlers look an average bunch. Cracking Smart has to be respected but think Henderson's Santini looks a better and better bet with each passing day now Albert Bartlett has been confirmed as target.

NaiveMelodies

I don't think you've delved too far into Samcros race Sunday as very little suggests it was 'terrible' to my eye. The handicapper can't have all of the better raced novices wrong. Add to that the unexposed novices and Samcro should get a minimum rating of 150.
The manner in which the race was won is not suited to any horse winning going away on the snaff. When you take into account it's unlikely the Supreme/ Ballymore will not be truly run, everything points to Samcro being as good an odds on novice as we've seen in years at Cheltenham.

lemush

madmoose wrote: »

If you are looking for a CH bet then Verdarna Blue nrnb 40/1 in the wout the fav market is fair on betfair sportbook eachway. Goes the betfair then CH.

No point in attempting to get anything on with BF sportsbook.

danganabu

1. Samcro made it look ordinary to be honest, there is nothing to suggest the rest are under par novices and quite a lot of evidence of the opposite, he's the real deal imo.

2. Agree 100%

3. Personally think Killultagh Vic would have won snugly enough, still dont think it will be enough to beat Might Bite or Native River.

4. Agreed

5. I'd agree that there isnt 10lbs in it like the Timeform rating suggest but I dont think Footpad was in any way extended at the weekend, yes PM will improve but so will Footpad.

6. You say that you are against Killultagh Vic because of the fall but like Fountains Windfall despit him having falling in half of his chases............playing devils advocate here btw as I really like Fountains Windfall myself.

jimjamcos

PM will improve for the run but wouldn't be sure Footpad will improve for Cheltenham.

He was probably ridden too agressively at Leopardstown but while he didn't touch the whip, I think Townend was holding him together slightly at end.

Russell was by no means hard on PM either.

WickIow Brave

Motivator wrote: »

There’s some unbelievable amount of **** posted on this thread. I’m not even going to bother trying to sieve through it.

Thanks for this contribution. We all respect you so much more for it.

Mr321

Don't keep your racing opions to yourself Aidan or anyone else. This is a horse racing thread and racing is all about opinions, if we cant have then here no point in the racing section.


Like yourself I always look for something to beat the favorite, in most cases it's the short unbackable prices the reason.
However at Cheltenham they become a but bigger on the day but can't see Buveuir Deir moving out. I'd just be hoping its still a 3 places race come the day fear it may only be do a lot of those 5 year olds will be taken out I'd say.
Faugheen if he shows up maybe even in a hood etc could be a challenge but you can't knock My Tent or yours form at the current prices when you look at it. Always been finishing in the money and is relativity lightly raced for his age.
John Constable lacks the graded runs would be my negitive was a handicapper most of his runs.
Mick Jazz might not have been going all out the other day so I'd say hell be better come Cheltenham
Pingshou was another I liked but would want to be running pretty soon and the jockey and trainer combo atm not right.

Faughen and MTOY will be where I'd be looking there.

Think Samcro wins wherever he runs.
I put up PM on the Sundsy thread thought him way over priced and Paloma Blue ran well the other day only he was way to keen early on so I'd be looking at him for the Supreme and hoping Davy was onboard.

Gold Cup ive given up on Djack along time ago was becoming an expensive horse to follow but the way he was ridden the other day may cop change him nto
I'm.I'm the RTR camp all day long for the GC

PM needed that the other day and his jumping got better as the race went on but Footpad has a way better engine. I've not really looked much into the rest of that race as yet.

The mares if apples jade goes she wins. If she wasn't in it there's a few English mares that's interesting

akelly02

Mine.

Bauvair Dair has not been winning with much in hand, mainly due to geraghty sitting still on the horse with nobody knowing what is under him. He wasnt far off being caught the other day, but even if he didnt ease off he wouldnt have came that far clear of a handicapper

then if you look back to the xmas hurdle, geraghty was motionless approaching the last but still needed to wing it against the new one, who was keeping on like a dog. if BD had hit the last, i think he was in serious trouble.

long story short i dont think geraghty is sitting on as much as he lets on.

Fanny Wank

Djakadam has only won once over 3m or longer, a handicap off 145. He looked gone at the game before Sunday and while I know he finished third he was well beaten by two horses id expect to be lapped in an average gold cup.

He's still relatively young for a staying chaser but there's serious mileage on the clock at this stage

madmoose

Djakadam ran in the JLT at aged 5 and hadnt he ran a fair number of times previous? His days and well and truly numbered at the top level.

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

Djakadam has only won once over 3m or longer, a handicap off 145. He looked gone at the game before Sunday and while I know he finished third he was well beaten by two horses id expect to be lapped in an average gold cup.

He's still relatively young for a staying chaser but there's serious mileage on the clock at this stage

It's a bit like the MTOY bets for the Champion Hurdle, you are pretty much writing off the win part of the bet, but the place bet is very possible and 33s is definitely big enough to play that angle.

And 'gone at the game' after one bad run when most of the stables big names were clearly off is a little harsh.

Fanny Wank

danganabu wrote: »

It's a bit like the MTOY bets for the Champion Hurdle, you are pretty much writing off the win part of the bet, but the place bet is very possible and 33s is definitely big enough to play that angle.

And 'gone at the game' after one bad run when most of the stables big names were clearly off is a little harsh.

He was destroyed in the Durkan, ran like a drain at Xmas (agree stable was under a cloud) and beaten by two horses with zero chance in March on Sunday.

I'd make the argument he's gone and may not ever have been good enough to win this year's gold cup against Mite Bite and Sizing John (if he's back to his best).

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

He was destroyed in the Durkan, ran like a drain at Xmas (agree stable was under a cloud) and beaten by two horses with zero chance in March on Sunday.

I'd make the argument he's gone and may not ever have been good enough to win this year's gold cup against Mite Bite and Sizing John (if he's back to his best).

The Durkam is irrelevant to me, over a trip and ground that suited neither of the principles, he has the form in the bag at Cheltenham.

Think you are also really underestimating Outlander for sure and most likely Edwulf as well. Outlander is a decent mid to high 160's animal and while I agree he has very little chance in a GC that is irrelevent, he had his conditions last weekend he wont have them in the Costwolds and will be run off his feet. Horses for courses.

Fanny Wank

All of Djakadam's wins have been on yielding to soft at BEST and his only win over 3m was a handicap which incidentally was run on heavy.

I'd argue the Durkin trip would suit and the ground while maybe not ideal (it was absolutely bottomless if I remember correctly) would inconvenience him less than Sizing John (who drifted like a barge, made a terrible error early and didn't settle but still beat him a comfortable 7l)

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

All of Djakadam's wins have been on yielding to soft at BEST and his only win over 3m was a handicap which incidentally was run on heavy.

I'd argue the Durkin trip would suit and the ground while maybe not ideal (it was absolutely bottomless if I remember correctly) would inconvenience him less than Sizing John (who drifted like a barge, made a terrible error early and didn't settle but still beat him a comfortable 7l)

But he has placed in two Gold Cups on good ground in Cheltenham and placed in another on Good to Soft ground, those are his best runs, not sure why you are obsessing with his Thystes win and somehow using it as a negative.

Motivator

danganabu wrote: »

It's a bit like the MTOY bets for the Champion Hurdle, you are pretty much writing off the win part of the bet, but the place bet is very possible and 33s is definitely big enough to play that angle.

And 'gone at the game' after one bad run when most of the stables big names were clearly off is a little harsh.

Djakadam has three wins to his name in four years. He was haunted to finish runner up in two Gold Cups. Last year was his chance at a big one and couldn’t do it. 33/1 is a silly price, he should be 100/1, he hasn’t a chance.

Mullins is only running him in the Gold Cup the last couple of years so Ricci is represented. He never had the class needed to win the best staying chase around.

RivetingRoger

Djakadam..........!!
Djakadam..???
Ah for f**ks sakes lads, give over
Djakadam indeed...........

Sooner have Dunguib than Djakadam!

sweeneed

good thread! its worth trying to pick some holes in the hots shots rather than blindly following the hype. theres always a few turned over and trying to figure out which ones I want to take on myself. For me it's might bite and potentially apples jade if lets dance can produce last years cheltenham form.... have PM ew at 8s as i expected improvement but think I will be putting footpad in a nice multiple

posturingpat

sweeneed wrote: »

good thread! its worth trying to pick some holes in the hots shots rather than blindly following the hype. theres always a few turned over and trying to figure out which ones I want to take on myself. For me it's might bite and potentially apples jade if lets dance can produce last years cheltenham form.... have PM ew at 8s as i expected improvement but think I will be putting footpad in a nice multiple

Totally agree on looking for value against short favs,i particularly look for it in Novice events and Samcro looks a class act but anybody that has a look through On The Blindsides form should see him as a serious threat and a cracking e/w bet, i hope Samcro gets backed off the boards so i can get a bigger e/w price on On the blind side.

longshotvalue

Motivator wrote: »

Djakadam has three wins to his name in four years. He was haunted to finish runner up in two Gold Cups. Last year was his chance at a big one and couldn’t do it. 33/1 is a silly price, he should be 100/1, he hasn’t a chance.

Mullins is only running him in the Gold Cup the last couple of years so Ricci is represented. He never had the class needed to win the best staying chase around.

But he has been placed in 3 Gold Cups , where else would you run him :eek:. All im saying is that this race really could turn out to be a mess and if he just does the same thing he has done 3 times before he could easily back into a serious chance at 33/1.

I got a fair few Similar comments regarding MTOY for the last 2 years when on a big prices. He also looks nailed on to run a big race but im not sure of the value given he was up to 50/1 the last couple of years and younger.

Motivator

I can understand the money for Getabird in the Supreme but only because nothing else has come out and looked like a horse good enough to win it. I’d still fancy Sharjah to run well and his price is massive considering he’s had one poor run, that was on Sunday so at the mad price he is now I’d have to take a chance on him in a weak enough looking Supreme.

Samcro was exceptional on Sunday but I’m happy enough to just watch him in March. He may well destroy everything in whatever race he runs but I don’t see the fun in backing horses that short in the market. They may well win but there’s no value in the price.

The Champion Hurdle is a mad looking race and I’d take a chance on something at a big ew price. Couldn’t steam in to BD at the current prices. Maybe Mick Jazz who’ll love a strong gallop and better ground but I wouldn’t be confident at all. Would dearly love to see Apples Jade in the Champion Hurdle.

Mr321

aidankkk wrote: »

But he has been placed in 3 Gold Cups , where else would you run him :eek:. All im saying is that this race really could turn out to be a mess and if he just does the same thing he has done 3 times before he could easily back into a serious chance at 33/1.

I got a fair few Similar comments regarding MTOY for the last 2 years when on a big prices. He also looks nailed on to run a big race but im not sure of the value given he was up to 50/1 the last couple of years and younger.

"where else would you run him"
Killbeggen in the summer haha

Djack could have one all before him at 2m -2m5f the last few festivals especially at home.
He was pushed 3m for a GC and its taken its toll on him. Any horse that does run a good race in the GC rarely come back and to well.
Could argue the same done with Yorkhill, pushed up 3m over the fences as he's a GC in the making instead of taking another season with him to progress and he bellyflops.
Mullins and Rici had a gold GC horse in the making the great Vatour!

danganabu

Mr321 wrote: »

. Any horse that does run a good race in the GC rarely come back and to well.

Seriously?? You do know that he has made the frame in three Gold Cups already, just like The Giant Bolster did and was dismissed each time. Synchronised and Lord Windamere were only handicapers according to many - I somethines think that some people have a very inflated idea of what a Gold Cup actually generally requires quality wise.

RivetingRoger

Mr321 wrote: »

"where else would you run him"
Killbeggen in the summer haha

Djack could have one all before him at 2m -2m5f the last few festivals especially at home.
He was pushed 3m for a GC and its taken its toll on him. Any horse that does run a good race in the GC rarely come back and to well.
Could argue the same done with Yorkhill, pushed up 3m over the fences as he's a GC in the making instead of taking another season with him to progress and he bellyflops.
Mullins and Rici had a gold GC horse in the making the great Vatour!

Vautour. Talk about a disaster for Mullins in 16. Madness.
Would have hacked up.
Instead he has been stuck with Djak since

Mr321

danganabu wrote: »

Seriously?? You do know that he has made the frame in three Gold Cups already, just like The Giant Bolster did and was dismissed each time. Synchronised and Lord Windamere were only handicapers according to many - I somethines think that some people have a very inflated idea of what a Gold Cup actually generally requires quality wise.

I get what your saying but why hasn't he won in between them GC since?

moneymore

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Vautour. Talk about a disaster for Mullins in 16. Madness.
Would have hacked up.
Instead he has been stuck with Djak since

Jaysus to say he would have hacked up in the GC is madness, he beat a weak Ryanair field and didn't stay in the King George!

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

sweeneed

im backing roger!!! maybe he wouldnt have stayed that year but spring ground in cheltenham he was a different horse and never looked like tiring in JLT allbeit a good bit shorter. they learned from letting him go in the king george. he lso jumped bit left so that track wasnt ideal. take cue card example, as the years go on, they stay better. he was young and certainly would have won a gold cup! too much class!

handsfree2

I'm going to back Ordinary World for the champion chase.
He ran well to place in last year's arkle. He got out stayed for 2 place.
He ran well at the weekend before hitting the last. The was market confidence in him before the race.

At 50/1 he's worth a punt.

Slattsy

handsfree2 wrote: »

I'm going to back Ordinary World for the champion chase.
He ran well to place in last year's arkle. He got out stayed for 2 place.
He ran well at the weekend before hitting the last. The was market confidence in him before the race.

At 50/1 he's worth a punt.

Where's he 50s? Serious price.

danganabu

Slattsy wrote: »

Where's he 50s? Serious price.

According to oddschecker a whole host of bookies, but I tried a few and the best I could see 1/4 odds and NRNB was Betway.

On a slightly off topic subject, Oddschecker is gone to the absolute dogs lately, no where near up to date, are there any more relaible alternatives that others use??

mountai

Is it just me , or does anyone else give Road to Respect any chance . Great price IMHO @ 12/1 . Forgotten horse just like Solwhit all those years ago !!!.

handsfree2

danganabu wrote: »

According to oddschecker a whole host of bookies, but I tried a few and the best I could see 1/4 odds and NRNB was Betway.

On a slightly off topic subject, Oddschecker is gone to the absolute dogs lately, no where near up to date, are there any more relaible alternatives that others use??

50s with PP 1/5 EW

RivetingRoger

moneymore wrote: »

Jaysus to say he would have hacked up in the GC is madness, he beat a weak Ryanair field and didn't stay in the King George!

If he hadn't hit the last fence in kempton he was home and dry. Cheltenham also suited him far more and he was a spring horse. I am 100% convinced he would have won that GC and nothing will change that. I also know from asking David Casey that a lot at closutton say the same. RR also. They regret that decision and well they might. Vautour was a hell of a horse

posturingpat

I wish nothing more than Vautour turned up for that Gold Cup so Don Cossack might get the credit he deserves, DC had his ears pricked all up the run in, had loads left in the tank. Vautour would've been breathing through his arse like he was in the King George.

WickIow Brave

posturingpat wrote: »

I wish nothing more than Vautour turned up for that Gold Cup so Don Cossack might get the credit he deserves

Be careful what you wish for.

posturingpat

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Be careful what you wish for.

Is that you Doc Brown?

WickIow Brave

posturingpat wrote: »

Is that you Doc Brown?

I don't know who that is but Don Cossack backers should definitely not be wishing Vautour showed up in that race!

posturingpat

WickIow Brave wrote: »

I don't know who that is but Don Cossack backers should definitely not be wishing Vautour showed up in that race!

That not the dude from back to the future, haven't seen it in about 2 decades so could be completely wrong. Don would've broke him into pieces, no doubt whatsoever

Fanny Wank

danganabu wrote: »

But he has placed in two Gold Cups on good ground in Cheltenham and placed in another on Good to Soft ground, those are his best runs, not sure why you are obsessing with his Thystes win and somehow using it as a negative.

I'm not "obsessing". I pointed out firstly that it's his only win over 3m (a handicap off a mark of 145). The second time I mentioned it was to refute this ludicrous comment

danganabu wrote: »

The Durkam is irrelevant to me, over a trip and ground that suited neither of the principles, he has the form in the bag at Cheltenham.

where I pointed out all his wins are on soft to yielding or softer (i.e. the ground point is ludicrous) and his only win over 3m was in a handicap off 145 (i.e. the trip point is ludicrous). His only 2 Grade 1 wins were in the Durkan which somewhat surprisingly were run over the same trip as this season's renewal. I agree Sizing John may not have been suited. He also made an early howler, ran very keenly and was weak as water in the betting. Still smashed Djakadam by 7l however

Long story short some people think Djakadam is value at 33/1. I wouldn't back him or Faugheen with stolen money