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Climate Change - General Discussion : Read the Mod Note in post #1 before posting
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sryanbruen wrote: »Well for a start, this is from a newspaper which are a very unreliable source regarding pretty much everything there is. Everything is exaggerated, especially when it comes to meteorology. Obviously, tabloids are far worse than broadsheets with exaggeration but I still do not consider all newspapers a reliable source. They do anything to sell to oblivious or naive people.
Secondly, the below quote is a bit misleading. Every 10 years, the meteorological agencies produce a 30 year average - which is based on the preceding 30 years - to compare mean temperatures, rainfall etc with and see how they differ from the averages. 1981-2010 is the latest 30 year average dataset, the next one will be 1991-2020.
The Irish Mean Temperature (IMT) is a dataset we use to see how warm or cold a month is in Ireland - basically the Irish counterpart of the Central England Temperature (CET). Each decade has been unique for the most part in regards to IMTs. For example, the 1990s/2000s were the warmest decades since the 1940s after a rather cold 1960s & 1980s with a mixed bag in the 1970s. However, the 2010s has taken a death in the mean temperatures for Ireland. It has been a far cooler decade than the 1990s and 2000s. It's been the coolest decade since the 1980s. The IMT for the 2010s up to 2017 stands at 9.8c approximately (it's a definite 9.7c up to 2016), compared to 10.2c and 10.3c in the 1990s and 2000s respectively. I don't see any climate change in regards to this, just the Irish climate being its normal self - either caused by solar activity being far weaker than the previous few solar cycles or just the climate being in a cooler period for now like the 1960s and 1980s - though not as cold (yet) as those decades.
I quoted your original comment here again because it's very irrelevant and misleading. Like I had said in my edited reply to you with evidence, storms Hector and Larry have not happened - Geoffrey isn't even part of the storm names list for 2017-18 so I have zero clue where you got them from.
See the problem when we say things like it being the driest on record, the wettest on record etc, we can only compare back to a certain period. We don't have millions of years of data - as somebody had falsely suggested on this thread. The CET is the longest dataset in the entire world going back to 1659. However, the further you go back, the more inaccurate these records tend to be and can be quite skeptical sometimes, namely months like May 1833 or June 1846 for example which were abnormally hot months - as the CET tells us.
If you look at the EWP series on the Hadley Centre site (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_seasonal/HadEWP_ranked_ssn.dat), you can see that the wettest Winters are fairly spread out and not all tightly packed together. However, the series only goes back to 1766 so who knows that Winters would have been even wetter before hand?
Top post Syran, and one that reflects a genuine capacity for critical thinking, not only with regards the interpretation of statistics, but also with regards to the media and journalistic interpretation of facts.
Regarding Prof Sweeney. I recall that he gave a very misleading statement on BBC program regarding 'The Big Wind' of 1839, in which he stated that such events are likely to become more common place in Ireland with climate change. However, the statistics, which are readily available, say otherwise. Storminess is actually becoming less of a feature during the winter months in Ireland. 'Named' storms, and the number of the them (which was alluded to earlier in this thread) is no indicator that they are becoming more frequent, because the majority of named storms in recent years were not actually storms at all technically speaking.
Here are some statistics and trends since the 1950s for Claremorris, which, as M.T rightly pointed out, is a good indicator of the 'average' conditions for the country as a whole. being placed in an inland location in the west of Ireland, therefore prone to both the extremes of temperature associated with blocking highs, and the moderating (and occasionally, not so moderate) influences of more Atlantic cyclonic conditions.
All this data can be found both on the Met Éireann site, and on the European Climate Assement & Database website.
Winter Wind: Marked decrease in both in winter wind speeds and the actual strength of winter storms since the 1990s. On the flip side of this, however, the number of calm days (days with mean windspeed less than 2 m/s) would appear to be on the decline also.
Winter Temperature: A stark decline in the frequency of 'cold spells' is evident, as is the frequency of the number of 'ice days'. The number of 'consecutive frost days', shows an almost linear fall in the number since the 1950s, averaging between 6 and 8 days pre 1990, to less than 4 since then.
Winter Rainfall: Interestingly, and in general accordance with predictions, winter rainfall does seem to be increasing, with the number of very wet days '>20mm) seeing a very marked increase since 2009.
Summer rainfall and drought: A steady and gradual decrease in the number of consecutive dry days since the 1960s, so summer drought conditions would appear to be becoming less extreme. There is a less noticeable but still evident decline in the number of very wet days (>20mm) during the season.
Summer heat: Days with max temp > 25c would appear to be overall steady, but also in a notable decline since 1995.
Don't have time to quote more stats but might later (if I am the mood :P) but those above might serve to give an idea as to which way our climate seems to be heading at the moment.
All data from the ECA&D & Met Éireann.
Edit: Winter rainfall total at UCG between 1850 and 2010.
Will send an email to the IT dept later to see if they will share any data since then so as to add it on the chart to get a better idea of recent trends.
Data above C/O Met Éireann.New Moon
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Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. Are you disputing this?
We also breath out water vapour, which is a more potent greenhouse gas. Hey, maybe the growing population of now >7 billion is adding all those extra GHGs to the atmosphere! Maybe we should do like in the Meteor ad and charge people for air.
On a serious note, water vapour in the atmosphere from warmer air and oceans has not shown any increase in vapour pressure, at least at Valentia. So far no sign of the increasing trend we're to expect in a warmer world.
From Met.ie
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