Gaoth Lag wrote: » I don’t think it was a deliberate contradiction, when you give that many interviews there’s bound to be a blip or two. Now, where are those insults?
Gaoth Lag wrote: » Everyone makes mistakes, you ever make any?
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Really? He's a renowned spokesperson on climate in Ireland so should be getting the right message out.
dense wrote: » The clanger about co2 in human breath being part or the problem was a good one too! Surprised Pat would be so gentle on someone urging word wide decarbonisation by 2040. Maybe he's mellowing in later years or, just can't be bothered after all the stuff was thrown out of the pram the last few times.https://encrypted.google.com/search?q=Pat+kenny+John+gibbons+&oq=Pat+kenny+John+gibbons+&gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.12...1756.16983.0.17678.39.31.4.4.5.0.280.4600.3j23j5.31.0....0...1c.1.34.mobile-heirloom-serp..8.31.3721.gzM1N_TQKn0
The prospect of holding global temperature increases to below the deadly +2ºC threshold is now vanishingly remote. To put a number on that, researchers calculate we now have just a 5% chance of avoiding breaching the 2ºC ceiling this century. These are lousy odds, given that the world beyond +2ºC is broadly incompatible with this or any other version of organised human civilisation.
sryanbruen wrote: » Well for a start, this is from a newspaper which are a very unreliable source regarding pretty much everything there is. Everything is exaggerated, especially when it comes to meteorology. Obviously, tabloids are far worse than broadsheets with exaggeration but I still do not consider all newspapers a reliable source. They do anything to sell to oblivious or naive people. Secondly, the below quote is a bit misleading. Every 10 years, the meteorological agencies produce a 30 year average - which is based on the preceding 30 years - to compare mean temperatures, rainfall etc with and see how they differ from the averages. 1981-2010 is the latest 30 year average dataset, the next one will be 1991-2020. The Irish Mean Temperature (IMT) is a dataset we use to see how warm or cold a month is in Ireland - basically the Irish counterpart of the Central England Temperature (CET). Each decade has been unique for the most part in regards to IMTs. For example, the 1990s/2000s were the warmest decades since the 1940s after a rather cold 1960s & 1980s with a mixed bag in the 1970s. However, the 2010s has taken a death in the mean temperatures for Ireland. It has been a far cooler decade than the 1990s and 2000s. It's been the coolest decade since the 1980s. The IMT for the 2010s up to 2017 stands at 9.8c approximately (it's a definite 9.7c up to 2016), compared to 10.2c and 10.3c in the 1990s and 2000s respectively. I don't see any climate change in regards to this, just the Irish climate being its normal self - either caused by solar activity being far weaker than the previous few solar cycles or just the climate being in a cooler period for now like the 1960s and 1980s - though not as cold (yet) as those decades. I quoted your original comment here again because it's very irrelevant and misleading. Like I had said in my edited reply to you with evidence, storms Hector and Larry have not happened - Geoffrey isn't even part of the storm names list for 2017-18 so I have zero clue where you got them from. See the problem when we say things like it being the driest on record, the wettest on record etc, we can only compare back to a certain period. We don't have millions of years of data - as somebody had falsely suggested on this thread. The CET is the longest dataset in the entire world going back to 1659. However, the further you go back, the more inaccurate these records tend to be and can be quite skeptical sometimes, namely months like May 1833 or June 1846 for example which were abnormally hot months - as the CET tells us. If you look at the EWP series on the Hadley Centre site (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_seasonal/HadEWP_ranked_ssn.dat), you can see that the wettest Winters are fairly spread out and not all tightly packed together. However, the series only goes back to 1766 so who knows that Winters would have been even wetter before hand?
Akrasia wrote: » This year hasn't been especially bad for storms, apart from a few fairly bad flooding events, and ex tropical storm Ophelia which was far from a normal meteorological event given where it formed and how far it travelled north while maintaining major hurricane force winds, but according to John Sweeney from NUI Maynooth, the winter of 2013/2014 was the stormiest in 140 years in both Ireland and the UK, and the winter of 2015/2016 was the wettest on record for much of the country. Its a very legitimate concern that the storms hitting Ireland every winter appear to be getting stronger and wetter and are changing from the typical atlantic depressions that we have been exposed to in the past.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Appear to be getting stronger. Any evidence of that? Changing from typical Atlantic depressions. Any evidence of that either? Remember, Debbie (not a hurricane) in 1961 was very similar to Ophelia (not a hurricane) but way stronger and set wind records that stand to this day. It's been proven that Ophelia was not linked to climate change. The area of warm-anomaly sea waters where it formed and stayed was just a few months earlier several degrees colder than average. Frances in 1980 made it almost as far east (just 350 km short of Ophelia). Not to mention the Big Wind in Jan 1839. When it comes to climate, Prof. Sweeney likes to paint the most pessimistic picture whenever he can.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » What is this Thinkorswim nonsense? I hadn't come across it before. Reading the homepage I see more hyperbolic statements such as this "Broadly incompatible". What does that mean exactly? Is it the inconvenience of using a 2-pin plug in a 3-pin socket - not ideal but can be done - or is it the other way, a 3-pin plug in a 2-pin socket, impossible, and you might die trying? "This or any other version or organised human civilisation". How many versions are there? I thought there was just the one. It's hard to take someone like this seriously when they speak nonsense like this. It's like one of those movies on the Movies for Men channel, where 5 tornadoes merge to suck the USA out of the ground and drop it in Russia; and only one TV weatherman can save them.
Akrasia wrote: » Storm Ophelia was record breaking in a number of metrics, Storm Darwin a few years before was the strongest storm I have ever experienced, the storm in Donegal this summer was a once in a century storm for that region, but marked by extreme rainfall which is a predicted element of climate change impacts on Ireland.
dense wrote: » It's a pseudo-public climate apocalypse site connected to An Taisce. I say "pseudo-public" because although public replies are ostensibly invited, if you reply with anything too awkward to consider it doesn't get past moderation. Public debate and propaganda aren't the greatest bedfellows of course, and the "science is settled" conversation stopper is evidence of that. It's connected to An Taisce because it's run by An Taisce's Climate Change Spokesperson (who's not adverse to citing its blog entries in An Taisce submissions to Government). Coincidentally, An Taisce also has Professor Sweeney as a Director. It all gives a completely new meaning to the term "climate contrarians". Yesterday I linked to the useful scientific paper generator. Today I'll link to the new-age BS generator. Substitute a few worthy self enriching global warming phrases and you'll get the picture. I think it's used to generate the waffle on the site we've mentioned. (May be of some use to any posters looking for a deep tagline, but keep coming up blank.)http://sebpearce.com/bull****/ Press the Reionize Electron button to begin the voyage.
Akrasia wrote: » In relation to 'days above 25 degrees' as an indicator for warmer weather in summer, this is interesting, but when Prof Sweeney said that Ireland has been on average a half a degree warmer than 50 years ago, most of this will come from milder winters and slightly warmer temperatures in spring and autumn which might actually feel colder due to additional wind chill and extra dampness on the west of Ireland
dense wrote: » Do you agree with Professor Sweeney's recent admission that co2 emitted in human breath is part of the problem?
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » I've been searching but can't find John Gibbons' scientific qualifications that would make him a worthy critic of those actually qualified, such as Bates. Maybe he has more than a journalism qualification, but he doesn't seem to mention anything (as far as I can find anyway).
Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: » Presumably all carbon dioxide is part of the problem?
dense wrote: » Can you elaborate on that presumption?
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » So it's your opinion based on a few single events, all of which have happened previously. You have no evidence of any increasing trends in these events?
Akrasia wrote: » You don't seem to value Prof John Sweeney's professional opinion on the matter. That's fine, you probably view him in a similar way to how I view Prof Ray Bates's analysis. The difference is that John Sweeney is is sync with the views of the majority of professional climatologists in Ireland, and also the majority of professional meteorologists and the national MET service in Ireland and these bodies and professionals are in agreement that climate change is a serious threat that should be taken seriously.
Akrasia wrote: » The thing about weather, is that it tends to be made up of events, and the thing about the future, is that it hasn't happened yet, so it would be hard for me to use things that haven't happened yet as evidence for things that have been happening. Storms are dynamic events that rely on all kinds of factors other than just the temperature of the planet, and storms that make landfall in populated areas are counted as significant events, while storms that remain out to sea or just skirt the coastline are seen as non events. Each storm is unique so comparing them by use of headline statistics can only give a partial story. High res weather models can't even predict storm tracks with certainty a day or two in advance. Climate change is often framed as either man made, or natural variability, but in reality, it's human influences on top of natural variabilty. We also do not know what the underlying natural trend for storminess would be if it wasn't for the human element in climate change. Perhaps we should be in a period of well below average storms which is dramatically increased by climate change, but this fact could be masked by the natural variability element. The modelling for future storm activity as a result of global warming is uncertain, there are different results depending on which model is used, and there are very good reasons for this, weather is chaotic. If global warming drags the jet stream out of it's traditional position, then unless your model gets this right, then all of your storm tracks will be wrong. There is a good presentation on the changes to Irish weather that have already been observed in Ireland due to climate changehttps://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/Meetings/Dr-Saji-Varghese-Presentation-.pdf he doesn't talk about wind or storms in his presentation it's not easy to find good quality research that does, but there is a new climate attribution project as a collaboration between UCC and Oxford which might give us better data in the next year or two
Its a very legitimate concern that the storms hitting Ireland every winter appear to be getting stronger and wetter and are changing from the typical atlantic depressions that we have been exposed to in the past.
You don't seem to value Prof John Sweeney's professional opinion on the matter. That's fine, you probably view him in a similar way to how I view Prof Ray Bates's analysis. The difference is that John Sweeney is is sync with the views of the majority of professional climatologists in Ireland, and also the majority of professional meteorologists and the national MET service in Ireland and these bodies and professionals are in agreement that climate change is a serious threat that should be taken seriously.
Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: » Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. Are you disputing this?
dense wrote: » To keep this as simple as possible, can Anyone cite any other experts on climate change (other than Professor Sweeney) who believe that human co2 exhaled in breath is part of the problem? Akrasia might know?
Coolest tropics since June, 2012 at -0.12 deg. C. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2018 was +0.26 deg. C, down from the December, 2017 value of +0.41 deg. C: The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 13 months are:YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS 2017 01 +0.33 +0.31 +0.34 +0.10 2017 02 +0.38 +0.57 +0.20 +0.08 2017 03 +0.23 +0.36 +0.09 +0.06 2017 04 +0.27 +0.28 +0.26 +0.21 2017 05 +0.44 +0.39 +0.49 +0.41 2017 06 +0.21 +0.33 +0.10 +0.39 2017 07 +0.29 +0.30 +0.27 +0.51 2017 08 +0.41 +0.40 +0.42 +0.46 2017 09 +0.54 +0.51 +0.57 +0.54 2017 10 +0.63 +0.66 +0.59 +0.47 2017 11 +0.36 +0.33 +0.38 +0.26 2017 12 +0.41 +0.50 +0.33 +0.26 2018 01 +0.26 +0.46 +0.06 -0.12 Note that La Niña cooling in the tropics has finally penetrated the troposphere, with a -0.12 deg. C departure from average. The last time the tropics were cooler than this was June, 2012 (-0.15 deg. C). Out of the 470 month satellite record, the 0.38 deg. C one-month drop in January tropical temperatures was tied for the 3rd largest, beaten only by October 1991 (0.51 deg. C drop) and August, 2014 (0.41 deg. C drop). The last time the Southern Hemisphere was this cool (+0.06 deg. C) was July, 2015 (+0.04 deg. C).source
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS 2017 01 +0.33 +0.31 +0.34 +0.10 2017 02 +0.38 +0.57 +0.20 +0.08 2017 03 +0.23 +0.36 +0.09 +0.06 2017 04 +0.27 +0.28 +0.26 +0.21 2017 05 +0.44 +0.39 +0.49 +0.41 2017 06 +0.21 +0.33 +0.10 +0.39 2017 07 +0.29 +0.30 +0.27 +0.51 2017 08 +0.41 +0.40 +0.42 +0.46 2017 09 +0.54 +0.51 +0.57 +0.54 2017 10 +0.63 +0.66 +0.59 +0.47 2017 11 +0.36 +0.33 +0.38 +0.26 2017 12 +0.41 +0.50 +0.33 +0.26 2018 01 +0.26 +0.46 +0.06 -0.12
La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is here. The La Niña climate pattern — a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean — is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. This is the second consecutive La Niña winter. Last year's episode was unusually brief, forming in November and gone by February. DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said this year's La Niña is on the weak side, but it should still continue through the winter. Anderson provided his meteorological insight during the Midwinter Weather Update webinar on Jan.16. La Niña is a climate pattern marked by cooler than average water in the central Pacific Ocean and has a big impact on the snowfall in the winter. Farmers are watching this weather pattern closely and its potential impact on crop production around the world.source
Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: » A simpler than possible answer would to you to answer the question about whether you thought carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas or not.
dense wrote: » Leave me out of it for the moment please. Granted I did I ask you to elaborate on an assumption you had, but scrap that too. I've asked an open question, and it's a bit of a show stopper. Nobody has answered. Possibly no one is reading the thread anymore, or haven't time to respond......... So let's not try to make this about me, about MY thoughts on GHGs, just because I picked up on something that was said by Professor Sweeney. Two things actually, both of which deserve attention, the inconsistency in divestment and the co2 in human breath claim. In focusing on me, it just shows a reluctance to examine whether Ireland's national climate change expert, described as a leading climatologist, and a UNIPCC Lead Author is in the habit of making stupid claims to whoever will listen to him. -Because I'm not the one whispering into the government's ear preaching fossil fuel divestment for Ireland.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Just on the topic of exhaled CO2. On average, a human exhales around 318 tonnes of air in a lifetime. The composition of exhaled air is around 5% CO2 and 5% water vapour (both GHGs), so that's around 32 tonnes of GHG added per person per lifetime. At an average lifespan of 67.5 years that's almost 0.5 tonnes per person per year. Multiply by 7 billion people and we get around 3 3 billion tonnes of GHG exhaled by the human population per year The mass of the atmosphere is about 5.15 x 10^15 tonnes. The concentration of added GHG is therefore around 0.06% per year (~600 ppm). Ignore the water vapour part and we have around 300 ppm of CO2 added per year by the human population. And this isn't even mentioning all the animal life. Hmmm, definitely too many people on the planet. Of course, thankfully we have natural sinks (oceans, trees and plant life) consuming all this CO2, but they definitely should think of rationing our air or else our growing population will start suffocating on its own exhaled air. :rolleyes:http://minkukel.com/visualize-it/every-breath-you-take/
