Welsh National.

antietam

Bishops Road 14/1 is a very big player.The worse the ground is the better Bishops Road is and an absolute monster handicapper in bottomless ground.He has his ground is 4lb better off with 8/1 fav Beware the Bear[who beat him over inadequate trip lto].This seems a race the Lee family target and this year looks no different.The race is full of horses with form on heavy but Bishops Road wants it even heavier.Based on potential ground conditions im very surprised he is not fav

HarshOstrich

antietam wrote: »

Bishops Road 14/1 is a very big player.The worse the ground is the better Bishops Road is and an absolute monster handicapper in bottomless ground.He has his ground is 4lb better off with 8/1 fav Beware the Bear[who beat him over inadequate trip lto].This seems a race the Lee family target and this year looks no different.The race is full of horses with form on heavy but Bishops Road wants it even heavier.Based on potential ground conditions im very surprised he is not fav

Beware the bear would have went further clear of bishops road if the race was any further, can’t see the tables being turned and Nicky Henderson didn’t even think he was fully fit the last day.

antietam

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Beware the bear would have went further clear of bishops road if the race was any further, can’t see the tables being turned and Nicky Henderson didn’t even think he was fully fit the last day.

That opinion is fine but Beware the Bear has never won beyond 3m and has never won on heavy during his chasing career.Chepstow has had rain yesterday,today and tomorrow and forecast is not just heavy but almost unraceable ground.Bishops Road will stay further than the almost 3.6m on Saturday will be at home on the ground and did not get a penalty for his run against Beware the Bear.

HarshOstrich

antietam wrote: »

That opinion is fine but Beware the Bear has never won beyond 3m and has never won on heavy during his chasing career.Chepstow has had rain yesterday,today and tomorrow and forecast is not just heavy but almost unraceable ground.Bishops Road will stay further than the almost 3.6m on Saturday will be at home on the ground and did not get a penalty for his run against Beware the Bear.

He hasn’t ran on heavy ground since going chasing but was an eased down hurdle winner on heavy ground so we know the ground is no problem for him,in fact it could benefit him.
I understand what your saying about bishops road, that we know exactly what conditions and distance he wants and the welsh national looks like it.
But you have to go back to the last run and it looked like if the race went on a couple more furlongs, beware the bear would have went further and further clear, and everything points to it suiting beware the bear as well.

akelly02

3 words . Rock the kasbah

antietam

HarshOstrich wrote: »

He hasn’t ran on heavy ground since going chasing but was an eased down hurdle winner on heavy ground so we know the ground is no problem for him,in fact it could benefit him.
I understand what your saying about bishops road, that we know exactly what conditions and distance he wants and the welsh national looks like it.
But you have to go back to the last run and it looked like if the race went on a couple more furlongs, beware the bear would have went further and further clear, and everything points to it suiting beware the bear as well.

Im just giving my opinion based on what I see and believe and I do not see what you see but that is what makes this site fascinating.Imo Beware The Bear will do extremely well to finish.I commend every poster here with their single mindedness of opinion but it feels like at times the form lines they hang onto are like hanging onto the tantacles of a squid with leprosy.

NaiveMelodies

antietam wrote: »

Im just giving my opinion based on what I see and believe and I do not see what you see but that is what makes this site fascinating.Imo Beware The Bear will do extremely well to finish.I commend every poster here with their single mindedness of opinion but it feels like at times the form lines they hang onto are like hanging onto the tantacles of a squid with leprosy.

Best line ever there!

Mr321

I like Houblon Des Obeaux.

4068ac1elhodqr

The Oracles mystic data would tend to suggest 'Rathlin Rose'.
But is 3rd from the bottom price wise, so not entirely encouraging.
@41, 4pl 1/4. Might wait for NRNB & ExPlaces bumping.

HarshOstrich

antietam wrote: »

Im just giving my opinion based on what I see and believe and I do not see what you see but that is what makes this site fascinating.Imo Beware The Bear will do extremely well to finish.I commend every poster here with their single mindedness of opinion but it feels like at times the form lines they hang onto are like hanging onto the tantacles of a squid with leprosy.

Look we are all going to be a little single minded when we have made a selection based on our own opinions and reasoning and I would take every posters opinions on board when coming to selecting a horse in a race, as I did yours but I’m struggling to see how you think bishops road will finish ahead of beware the bear.
They both like heavy ground
They both will be fitter and sharper on the day and you would think there’s more improvement in a progressive horse like beware the bear especially how he won the last day.
You are the one holding on to strange form lines as bishops roads wins on heavy ground have been poor races when you look back on the horses in behind.

We will see come Saturday but my reasons are based on the form of the horses and there historical performances , where as your speculating that beware the bear won’t like heavy ground or the distance, but I think the real reason you opposed him is because he’s favorite and we all want a bit more value.
Good luck.

antietam

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Look we are all going to be a little single minded when we have made a selection based on our own opinions and reasoning and I would take every posters opinions on board when coming to selecting a horse in a race, as I did yours but I’m struggling to see how you think bishops road will finish ahead of beware the bear.
They both like heavy ground
They both will be fitter and sharper on the day and you would think there’s more improvement in a progressive horse like beware the bear especially how he won the last day.
You are the one holding on to strange form lines as bishops roads wins on heavy ground have been poor races when you look back on the horses in behind.

We will see come Saturday but my reasons are based on the form of the horses and there historical performances , where as your speculating that beware the bear won’t like heavy ground or the distance, but I think the real reason you opposed him is because he’s favorite and we all want a bit more value.
Good luck.

I apologise, your assessment can in effect be true of course it can.Please accept my ignorance.Stephen

longshotvalue

I agree with Bishops Road he won't be far away and is value. I'll be waiting until extra places etc for first bet if 2018. Probably go with win Bishops and big priced outsider ew.

Gavin "shels"

Few trends here https://juicestorm.com/horse-racing/2017-welsh-grand-national-free-tips-trends/

Francie Barrett

akelly02 wrote: »

3 words . Rock the kasbah

Form line over the course reads 22111 so it clearly loves the track, although after its last win here, I think the handicapper may have just got its grip on him.

robbie67

Reading the Racing Post it looks like Hobbs won't take a chance with rock the kasbar saying he thinks the going will be atrocious

akelly02

robbie67 wrote: »

Reading the Racing Post it looks like Hobbs won't take a chance with rock the kasbar saying he thinks the going will be atrocious

BALLS

HarshOstrich

Mr321 wrote: »

I like Houblon Des Obeaux.

I think he should be in the shake up, has 30 lengths in hand on bishops toad from last years running and is only 3 pound worse with that one.

racso1975

akelly02 wrote: »

3 words . Rock the kasbah

3 new words. ON. THE. ROAD.

Mr321

HarshOstrich wrote: »

I think he should be in the shake up, has 30 lengths in hand on bishops toad from last years running and is only 3 pound worse with that one.

Yes just hoping she runs him at Chepstow. Also entered at Sandown I see. She has another in the National but only ran last week and won I think so hardly put him out so soon.

Ill be waiting until Saturday morning but if Houblon Des Obeaux is running I'll be backing him

GillLebowski

No real Mention of Vicente anywhere. Top weight but I still reckon he could be in with a shout. E/W at 16/1 most places. Mainly just cause I like the horse though.

BumperD

Chap on final furlong podcast made a good case for milansbar before Christmas. I’m not having a bet but he’d do for me.

madmoose

BumperD wrote: »

Chap on final furlong podcast made a good case for milansbar before Christmas. I’m not having a bet but he’d do for me.

Least with him he will love this shocking ground.

lemush

GillLebowski wrote: »

No real Mention of Vicente anywhere. Top weight but I still reckon he could be in with a shout. E/W at 16/1 most places. Mainly just cause I like the horse though.

Needs half decent ground.

justincasey

My tup pence worth final nudge ew 14/1 for me. Should be ok on the ground and will stay the trip

Gavin "shels"

https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/949188724260143104

STB.

racso1975 wrote: »

3 new words. ON. THE. ROAD.

I'll give you 3 words.

Raz De Maree. Loves heavy. 16/1

Second in the Midlands national a couple of years back. Second last year to Native River in this race. The 5lb claimer on RDM is one of the up and coming young lads in James Bowen (25% strike rate in December). Has a 16 year old ever won a National ????

I'll have a saver on Ask the Weatherman (3 words again!) who has a 100% record on this type ground. 12/1

Nulty

Mysteree hasn't been fully exposed over these trips, loves the mud and is built for this test. My idea of the winner for months.

Emperor's Choice has fallen to a winnable mark and can emulate Mountainous as a dual winner of the race at 11 years old. 20/1 is fair.

Firebird Flyer hasn't completed a chase in his last 4 attempts but finished second to Mountainous in this in "2015", also a rearranged race. Rated 3lbs lower and carries 2lbs less than that year now with a 3lbs claimer. 33/1 seems very fair for him.

4068ac1elhodqr

5 places now, but (1/5) with P's.
Maybe a very small chance someone will go up to 6, who knows.

slimshady007

Selena Quick Voyager wrote: »

5 places now, but (1/5) with P's.
Maybe a very small chance someone will go up to 6, who knows.

By making it 1/5 odds they're essentially taking what they're saving on the first 4 places and putting it into a 5th place. They will not pay out any more than any other bookie as a result of this "offer" but will no doubt advertise it as the best deal out there.

4068ac1elhodqr

slimshady007 wrote: »

By making it 1/5 odds they're essentially taking what they're saving on the first 4 places and putting it into a 5th place. They will not pay out any more than any other bookie as a result of this "offer" but will no doubt advertise it as the best deal out there.

Perhaps, but have opted for an outside around 33-40/1, so if it comes in 5th all is well. Ideally 6places would be better.

Will also likely also have a selection as part of an e/w accumulator (as many others may) involving stickball as well as other races, an a novelty event of particular note about to commence. If they all place, the trusty Casio calculator will be taken out again of it's PVC sleeve and finger tapping will commence. Other make of calculators are also available.

Shemale

Firebird Flyer is jumping out at me here too, he got 138 for his 2nd in the "2015" running of this race where he was 13L clear of the 3rd horse in similar conditions. Since January 2017 he has been entered in 4 chases all of which he pulled up in, yet in a very strange set of circumstances he finished both hurdle races he ran in and he is down to 130 for this race. He has 33 runs in heavy with 7 wins and 8 places and the 33/1 on offer looks very generous.

I am dutching Firebird Flyer with Emperors Choice, the 2014 winner has crept in at the bottom, his win that year earned him 135. He also has been pulled up a bit since and is in here off 124 carrying 10-3 with Deutsch taking 3lbs off. Deutsch rode him a week ago and the horse is due to go up 4lbs for it so if he has come out of it well I expect him to be right there. He put in a bold front running display in heavy ground over 3m3 in Haydock so that could very well take it's toll. Worth a roll at 20/1 with 7 wins and 7 places from 26 runs on heavy.