PP now NRNB for Champ Races in C'ham

danganabu

antietam wrote: »

Just asking can a horse that has never won a hurdle race higher than novice grade and rated 154 beat a seasoned grade 1 winner rated 15 lb higher than Yorkhill.Imo he will not be 2/1 or less on the day if a runner in the Champion hurdle based on facts above.

A seasoned grade one winner what was he rated this time twelve months ago, i'll give you a clue it's less than 154!!

antietam

danganabu wrote: »

A seasoned grade one winner what was he rated this time twelve months ago, i'll give you a clue it's less than 154!!

Thank you for you "clue" but Jan 2016 he was rated 154 and Smith dropped him to 152 for 3rd to Altior at Cheltenham.Smith again devalued his neck beating of Petit Mouchoir and dropped him to 151.Since then he has won 4 grade1 hurdles slamming Petit Mouchoir 8L in the process.We know PM is not regressing so that means Buveur Dair is progressing since his Jan rating of 154 to his current mark 169.You dont win Champion hurdles in December so Imo 169 will be a distant memory come the end of March.Thanks for your understanding and look forward to more "clues"in the coming weeks.Mullins is an intelligent man and knows exactly where he stands in relation to winning a Champion hurdle with Yorkhill and im absolutely certain he will run over fences at the festival as he just cannot beat Buveur Dair.

RivetingRoger

Faugheen currently 4/1 on boyles who havent gone nrnb (quel surprise)
Now, say he beats or even runs with BD if they do go head to head in 2 weeks (which i seriously doubt) that price will plummet
Is now the time to back him

danganabu

antietam wrote: »

Thank you for you "clue" but Jan 2016 he was rated 154 and Smith dropped him to 152 for 3rd to Altior at Cheltenham.Smith again devalued his neck beating of Petit Mouchoir and dropped him to 151.Since then he has won 4 grade1 hurdles slamming Petit Mouchoir 8L in the process.We know PM is not regressing so that means Buveur Dair is progressing since his Jan rating of 154 to his current mark 169.You dont win Champion hurdles in December so Imo 169 will be a distant memory come the end of March.Thanks for your understanding and look forward to more "clues"in the coming weeks.Mullins is an intelligent man and knows exactly where he stands in relation to winning a Champion hurdle with Yorkhill and im absolutely certain he will run over fences at the festival as he just cannot beat Buveur Dair.

I happen to agree with you, but your rationale for dismissing him because of his experience and profile is flawed seeing that it is almost identical to last years winner.

danganabu

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Faugheen currently 4/1 on boyles who havent gone nrnb (quel surprise)
Now, say he beats or even runs with BD if they do go head to head in 2 weeks (which i seriously doubt) that price will plummet
Is now the time to back him

Considering he can be backed at 11/2 then no, now is certainly not the time to back at 4/1, giving what has happened and his history 11/4 NRNB is far better value than 11/2 ante post.

BumperD

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Faugheen currently 4/1 on boyles who havent gone nrnb (quel surprise)
Now, say he beats or even runs with BD if they do go head to head in 2 weeks (which i seriously doubt) that price will plummet
Is now the time to back him

Without nrnb no. Douvan and Faugheen both flaky bets even with nrnb injured horses leave the money in your bank account there are better bets out there come festival

Slattsy

When can we expect weights to come for the handicaps, another 4 weeks or so?

BumperD

Slattsy wrote: »

When can we expect weights to come for the handicaps, another 4 weeks or so?

2 weeks before festival I think

kfallon

Slattsy wrote: »

When can we expect weights to come for the handicaps, another 4 weeks or so?

Handicap entries are 20th February
Handicap weights are 27th February

antietam

danganabu wrote: »

I happen to agree with you, but your rationale for dismissing him because of his experience and profile is flawed seeing that it is almost identical to last years winner.

Have a look at the distances Mullins put him over as a juvenile which tells us that Mullins didnt fancy him then to be serious top notch over 2m hurdles and progression in that sphere would be limited in comparison to specialists in that field like Buveur Dair.If I owned him he would run in the Queen Mother no ifs buts or maybes [out in front catch me if you can].

kfallon

antietam wrote: »

Have a look at the distances Mullins put him over as a juvenile which tells us that Mullins didnt fancy him then to be serious top notch over 2m hurdles and progression in that sphere would be limited in comparison to specialists in that field like Buveur Dair.If I owned him he would run in the Queen Mother no ifs buts or maybes [out in front catch me if you can].

Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen all won the RSA/Neptune/Ballymore before winning the Champion.
Rock On Ruby was just touched off in it too.
Annie Power wasn't campaigned as a 2m hurdler either and won a CH