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Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

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24567…28

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    #32
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,134 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Dublin's TAF showing gusts of 55kts early tomorrow evening, I'd expect higher when the 11pm TAF comes out.


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    #33
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,550 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

    Well, presumably because Met E aren't going by those charts, they'd probably be using their own Harmonie model along with a mix of other models. The ECM seems to be really bullish about this wind compared to WRF and the ARPEGE for example. GFS and ICON are somewhat in agreement with the ECM, though a bit less intense.


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    #34
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    According to the ECM, the storm centre will be 980 hPa over Galway city at 1800Z and then 975 hPa over the Isle of Man at 2100Z. That's a distance of 300 km in 3 hours, or a speed of 100 km/h. That's some forward speed alright and will be added to the gradient winds on the southern flank. The GFS is slightly slower and around 1 degree further north. The ICON and Arome are again showing gusts over 80 knots in the Irish Sea by 2100Z, but again I think that's a bit ott. The Harmonie is linked to the Arome so I wonder what charts it's producing in Glasnevin. Hopefully they'll tweet them later.

    As always there is a chance of a northward shift, but it does look like a strong but very brief spell of winds through the central swathe of the country and also the southeast.


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    #35
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,176 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Wow, is that speed of movement common?


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    #36
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Wow, is that speed of movement common?

    It's on the upper end of the range alright. I don't remember seeing any depression move so fast.


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    #37
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,550 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    It's far from the same thing, but I was in the DC area during the June 2012 Derecho storm and the difference that the fast moving system made to the ground conditions was insane. Most intense weather I've ever personally experienced.


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    #38
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,176 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    RTE have just tweeted about the Orange status


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    #39
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,099 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Great forecast from Evelyn there on rte1 there. Storm force winds behind the low also lasting all night and into wednesday morning.


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    #40
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,176 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    MJohnston wrote: »
    It's far from the same thing, but I was in the DC area during the June 2012 Derecho storm and the difference that the fast moving system made to the ground conditions was insane. Most intense weather I've ever personally experienced.

    Right, so the speed of movement has to be added to the wind speed in certain quadrants? Is that how it works?


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    #41
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    There's an almost 200-knot jet streak just off the New Foundland coast this evening causing an area of huge upper divergence (the + area). This is over a slack 1005-hPa surface low (T 1005, far left), which is what will deepen over the next 18 hours as it approaches Ireland. A lot of stuff happening fast, so the exact phasing with this upper feature may lead to some differences come tomorrow evening.

    2018010118_38.gif

    2018010118_5.gif


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    #42
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,550 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Right, so the speed of movement has to be added to the wind speed in certain quadrants? Is that how it works?

    It's way beyond my knowledge to explain it to be honest!


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    #43
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Right, so the speed of movement has to be added to the wind speed in certain quadrants? Is that how it works?

    Yes, on the southern flank of the low. To the north the opposite is true and it could be very calm as the low passes to the south (but then northwesterly winds picking up quickly thereafter).


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    #44
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Is probably good it peaks around 21:00 rather than 17:00-18-00 to avoid peak population (East coast) commuting traffic.
    Maybe keep your high-sided vehicles parked up, tomorrow late evening for a while. Would not like to be of those folks door-dropping-pizzas via 50cc mopeds.

    Screen_Shot_2018-01-01_at_20.49.46.png


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    #45
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,176 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Yes, on the southern flank of the low. To the north the opposite is true and it could be very calm as the low passes to the south (but then northwesterly winds picking up quickly thereafter).

    Gotcha, but surely not 100kph added to the wind speed? It should slow with the friction on moving over land?


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    #46
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    I've to get the tarbert ferry in the morning. Is it likely this storm will effect it?


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    #47
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Gotcha, but surely not 100kph added to the wind speed? It should slow with the friction on moving over land?

    For areas to the south and perpendicular to the storm track then up to 100 km/h can be added. Imagine the storm were stationary. You'd just have the gradient wind circulating around the centre. After that, any movement of the storm will add speed to the wind relative to you on the ground.

    It's like standing beside a merry-go-round and someone on it hitting you as they pass by. If their hand is just sticking out but their arm is not moving relative to the merry-go-round then you'll just get hit with the speed of the hand. But imagine they hit you with a perfectly-timed punch just at the right time. Now you'll feel a harder hit from the added speed of their hand (original speed from merry-go-round + speed of hand moving relative to it).


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    #48
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,134 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Peter Ambitious Tenure wrote: »
    I've to get the tarbert ferry in the morning. Is it likely this storm will effect it?

    First thing I'd say is read the title of the thread.

    I'm local to the ferry, it runs in quite poor weather.


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    #49
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    18Z GFS still doesn’t want to do much with this it seems. 50-60 kt gusts over the southern half of the country in the afternoon/evening.


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    #50
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,176 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Looks big in the Atlantic

    Edit: Eh, not sure if that's Eleanor.


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    #51
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/947920060877889536


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    #52
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,550 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Looks big in the Atlantic

    Edit: Eh, not sure if that's Eleanor.

    Eleanor isn't really an organised system as such, but the winds do interact with that low on their way here.


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    #53
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    What's the chances this thing ends up in Donegal as usual? :p


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    #54
    ascophyllum
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Might be interesting to note that the swell size on the west coast on Wednesday will be the biggest in a long time, way bigger than storm Dylan, 8 to 10 metres at 19 seconds as the wind field has stretched almost across the whole Atlantic. There are very high tides in the evening too so flooding very possible.
    This has been visible on our (surfers') forecast for the last 4 or 5 days.


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    #55
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Wonder will the full, kinda-super moon have an effect on tides also.
    It tends to send all the local moggie cats round here in to 'wired' mode.


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    #56
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,897 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Pointed out in the forecast after the evening news by Evelyn Cusack that an Orange Status was given because of the combination of high winds and rainfall sweeping across the country creating dangerous conditions.

    tempresult_ytw0.gif

    tempresult_wlw8.gif


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    #57
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,897 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/metdesk/status/947924164949807104

    https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/947942610148184065


    https://twitter.com/barrabest/status/947926049890893826

    https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/947925059947106306


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    #58
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,099 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    the Shannon and Dubin TAF's falling in line with current forecasts

    TAF EINN 012300Z 0200/0224 14007KT 9999 FEW015 SCT025
    BECMG 0201/0204 15015KT
    BECMG 0204/0206 18020G32KT
    TEMPO 0204/0207 5000 -RA BKN012
    BECMG 0206/0208 25023G36KT
    BECMG 0208/0210 24019G31KT
    BECMG 0211/0213 23016G26KT
    BECMG 0213/0215 16013KT BKN018
    BECMG 0215/0217 24025G40KT
    TEMPO 0214/0218 4000 RA BKN010
    TEMPO 0217/0219 25035G55KT
    BECMG 0218/0220 27027G43KT
    TEMPO 0220/0224 5000 SHRA SCT012 SCT018CB


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    #59
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,897 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Remaining very windy into Weds along Atlantic coastal counties.

    Latest 18Z

    tempresult_koc9.gif

    tempresult_ijp8.gif


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    #60
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,733 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Including Carlow in Orange warning but no Kilkenny, it even looks wrong on the map.


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    #61
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,099 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Centre of the storm due to pass over Mayo between 4 and 6pm with Knock TAF for those times just giving wind as Variable at 3 knots!

    EIKN 012300Z 0200/0224 20006KT 9999 FEW015 SCT025
    BECMG 0200/0202 16010KT
    BECMG 0202/0204 17015KT
    BECMG 0204/0206 17020G32KT
    TEMPO 0204/0207 4000 -RA BKN008
    PROB40
    TEMPO 0205/0207 3000 RA BKN004
    BECMG 0206/0208 26023G35KT
    TEMPO 0207/0210 5000 -SHRA BKN015
    BECMG 0208/0210 26020G30KT
    BECMG 0210/0212 25012KT
    BECMG 0212/0214 20013KT 7000 -RA BKN012
    TEMPO 0215/0219 3000 RA BKN005
    BECMG 0216/0218 VRB03KT **
    BECMG 0218/0220 26025G40KT 9999 NSW FEW012 BKN025
    TEMPO 0219/0224 4000 SHRA SCT012 SCT018CB
    BECMG 0221/0224 25020G32KT


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