Property Market 2018

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Bob24 wrote: »

CSO figures are based on actual selling prices whereas daft doesn’t have those figures and has to rely on asking prices. Don’t know if that’s the only reason but it could explain the gap if actual selling prices are rising faster than asking prices.

I've been closely involved with three purchases in the last 6 months in the greater Dublin area. One apartment and two houses. All have gone above asking. The smallest above was 10 k, the greatest 30 k. I don't think asking prices are telling the full story at all.

Bubbaclaus

Diarmuid wrote: »

It's a rare job that's delivering 6-7% wage inflation to keep up with the housing market.

I am factoring in my savings increasing on a monthly basis covering a certain chunk of the increase. So I'm certainly not expecting 6-7% wage inflation.

OwlsZat

Cyrus wrote: »

well if its like the last time the banks wont be lending so you wont be buying a house anyway

I've heard that mentioned a few times, but my friend got a mortgage approved in the crash years (2010). Obviously his interest rate is a couple of points higher than what's on offer now. However, the idea they don't lend at all in crashes is simply wrong.

Cyrus

OwlsZat wrote: »

I've heard that mentioned a few times, but my friend got a mortgage approved in the crash years (2010). Obviously his interest rate is a couple of points higher than what's on offer now. However, the idea they don't lend at all in crashes is simply wrong.

of course they lent but it was at very low levels to a certain type of borrower who had a decent amount of equity,

i meant it more generally rather than specific, there will always be people who were good bets to lend to but the no of houses that sold at the bottom of the market was relatively low.

Plus you have the issue of people waiting on the bottom, missing it and then reluctant to buy as prices increase!

Sleepy

In my view the most direct threat to property values in Ireland is a sharp rise in unemployment. We're a very open economy and heavily (overly?) reliant on FDI for employment.

Should, for example, Trump manage to get punitive taxation levels passed on the American MNCs headquartered here, or the EU manage to impose corporate tax rate harmonisation, we could have real problems and even those of us in good, stable jobs could find ourselves in trouble.

Bob24

Sleepy wrote: »

In my view the most direct threat to property values in Ireland is a sharp rise in unemployment. We're a very open economy and heavily (overly?) reliant on FDI for employment.

Assuming we maintain more or less decent lending rules, yes definitely that is the biggest risk. It would at the same time reduce the number of buyers + their budget, and generate oversupply because the population would stop growing or shrink. Exact same as 2007 onwards.

But the thing is many different factors could trigger this so it is hard top predict.

Henbabani

With all the news about people queuing and the prices come up you can see on daft more and more available units to sale, i just moved to carrickmines and there's apartments for sale 3BDR for 345,000, which isn't cheap but still my point is that those apartments are already ready for delivery or supposed to be really soon, but still they have 10 units available for sale.
People should read carefully all the data came from the media, there's still plenty of new builds on daft available, and more to come in this year and the next years.
I'm new here in Ireland but really surprised to see so many cranes here, which mean that the government is building, maybe not to much as needed but with a bit patience the prices will fell.
We should remember that every day a war can open in Syria between the American and Russia, the brexit is on the way, so before people go to negative equity they should think.

mel123

Are we going to have a rental crisis for the foreseeable?
I see it as a bit of a catch 22. I do agree about lending criteria to an extent, but say for example a couple out renting now on average or even a bit above average salaries, how are they going to save to buy a house in the next few years? Are these people stuck in a renting bubble now rather than being able to buy?

Wanderer78

Henbabani wrote:

With all the news about people queuing and the prices come up you can see on daft more and more available units to sale, i just moved to carrickmines and there's apartments for sale 3BDR for 345,000, which isn't cheap but still my point is that those apartments are already ready for delivery or supposed to be really soon, but still they have 10 units available for sale. People should read carefully all the data came from the media, there's still plenty of new builds on daft available, and more to come in this year and the next years. I'm new here in Ireland but really surprised to see so many cranes here, which mean that the government is building, maybe not to much as needed but with a bit patience the prices will fell. We should remember that every day a war can open in Syria between the American and Russia, the brexit is on the way, so before people go to negative equity they should think.

The government isn't building much at all, most, if not all of those cranes are for private commercial builds, some of course are for apartments etc, 'the market' is gonna mysteriously start building thousands of homes at some stage, but at this rate, it's looking like it could be next century

izzyflusky

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Bob24

izzyflusky wrote: »

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Yes - it should be clear to everyone that the point of an ad on Daft is to attract interest and EAs/developers are not too bothered with accuracy on price/availability. Leaving outdated ads online for sold-out units in order to gather interest for harder to sell units in the same development and/or build-up a prospective buyers’ database is a classic trick (and it actually applies to anything - it’s basically the same general idea as Tesco advertising a cheap product on which they know they have restricted stock to get people in the shop and have them buy something else).

Henbabani

Bob24 wrote: »

izzyflusky wrote: »

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Yes - it should be clear to everyone that the point of an ad on Daft is to attract interest and EAs/developers are not too bothered with accuracy on price/availability. Leaving outdated ads online for sold-out units in order to gather interest for harder to sell units in the same development and/or build-up a prospective buyers’ database is a classic trick (and it actually applies to anything - it’s basically the same general idea as Tesco advertising a cheap product on which they know they have restricted stock to get people in the shop and have them buy something else).

I know about the project next to my apartment in Carrickmines, there are available apartments and they ready for delivery, maybe they increased the price but still, it's just the beginning of new homes standing empty for people to buy them, of course it's logically that people will queue for semi d in 300,00€, that's the situation today but still there are 3BDR apartments which will be empty really soon, so people should compromise and stop looking to live their live in Semi D.

izzyflusky

There is another thread on families living in apartments. The issue is that apartment living in Ireland is not made for families. From the bad insulation to restricting children to play on the grounds or even dictating your type of flooring.

I lived in apartments while abroad where is the norm for families, but children will roam freely within the complex. I would be weary to buy an apartment here. And to be honest, if I can have my pick of a house for 300k region or an apartment for them same price, I'd rather queue.

MayoSalmon

Another article quoting that at least 80,000 people are ready to buy houses today if there was enough supply.

Interestingly their saying it will take at least 4 years to clear that backlog.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-logjam-80000-people-would-buy-immediately-but-there-arent-enough-homes-36802516.html

Colonel Claptrap

mel123 wrote: »

Are we going to have a rental crisis for the foreseeable?
I see it as a bit of a catch 22. I do agree about lending criteria to an extent, but say for example a couple out renting now on average or even a bit above average salaries, how are they going to save to buy a house in the next few years? Are these people stuck in a renting bubble now rather than being able to buy?

It's not a nice situation.

But if we have to choose between loosening lending restrictions or keeping rents high, I choose the latter. It's far less risky for the individuals, banks and taxpayer. Not ideal but unfortunately it's the reality we face.

Henbabani

izzyflusky wrote: »

There is another thread on families living in apartments. The issue is that apartment living in Ireland is not made for families. From the bad insulation to restricting children to play on the grounds or even dictating your type of flooring.

I lived in apartments while abroad where is the norm for families, but children will roam freely within the complex. I would be weary to buy an apartment here. And to be honest, if I can have my pick of a house for 300k region or an apartment for them same price, I'd rather queue.

Probably it's an issue of education, in Israel most of the families live in high rinse buildings( there's thousands of 15-25 storey buildings).
Hope someone will wake up because in Dublin not everyone can live on the ground.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

izzyflusky

Henbabani wrote: »

Probably it's an issue of education, in Israel most of the families live in high rinse buildings( there's thousands of 15-25 storey buildings).
Hope someone will wake up because in Dublin not everyone can live on the ground.

I agree with you there, maybe they should start marketing them to that group and changing the rules to make them child friendly. I grew up in an apartment myself and did not jump out of the balcony (I keep seeing that as an argument against it haha).

Boatswain

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Another article quoting that at least 80,000 people are ready to buy houses today if there was enough supply.

Interestingly their saying it will take at least 4 years to clear that backlog.

That's all rubbish according to some people, they are making it up to push their own agenda and the reality is Irish house prices will fall off a cliff next year. Right?

Cyrus

Boatswain wrote: »

the reality is Irish house prices will fall off a cliff next year. Right?

im 99% sure that wont happen

Bob24

Cyrus wrote: »

im 99% sure that wont happen

I’m not sure I would say 99% (even though I would like to as I purchased recently).

I’d definitely agree that as long as the internal mechanics of the market remain the same as today there is not reason for prices to fall - and if you take a 1 year timeframe this is the most likely scenario.

*but* various kinds of external shocks could change that. And while I wouldn’t give it a very high probability in the next 12 months, I would definitely set it higher than 1%. Probably more somewhere between 5 and 10%.

LirW

izzyflusky wrote: »

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Good oul' marketing trick, developments listing a price with let's say 270k for a 3bed, somewhere in the wall of text it says they start from 270k, you get there and it turns out that there are only 2 or 3 houses from 25 that are 270 because they are terraced or have a tiny plot and the rest is a good bit higher.

Bob24

Henbabani wrote: »

Probably it's an issue of education, in Israel most of the families live in high rinse buildings( there's thousands of 15-25 storey buildings).
Hope someone will wake up because in Dublin not everyone can live on the ground.

Clearly Dublin has a problem with being too widespread and not tall enough to manage its population and the way it is going to increase.

It’s a combination of cultural factors whereby many people think a house is the only way to go for a family, and the fact that (partly because of that thinking) very few apartments here are actually suitable for family living (so even if someone is fine with apartment living, it is hard to find one which was designed for family living) and very few if any apartment blocks are mostly filled with owner-occupiers (which will usually make them more friendly to families in the long term).

I personally grew up in apartments in continental Europe and definitely prefer apartment living in central and well connected areas with a mix of homes, shop, and offices compared to living in a house in a low density residential neighbourhood whereby you can’t do much without a car (whether it is buying a pint of milk, going to my GP, or going to the office, beeing able to walk there or reach it quickly via public transport is a higher priority for me that having a small back garden - which I would want to bother maintaining anyway).

But the issue is while I got an apartment which thicks all those boxes and more (20 mins walk to the city center, good and quick bus service to the airport, etc), in spite of having a suitable budget I did have to compromise on things like generous storage space because it simply doesn’t exist (or at least it is very rare).

izzyflusky

LirW wrote: »

Good oul' marketing trick, developments listing a price with let's say 270k for a 3bed, somewhere in the wall of text it says they start from 270k, you get there and it turns out that there are only 2 or 3 houses from 25 that are 270 because they are terraced or have a tiny plot and the rest is a good bit higher.

Only this time there literally none at the listed price! The prices listed were from when they first launched and it was from X euro as you said

Colonel Claptrap

Just heard a statistic on the radio.

39% of people believe now is a good time to buy.

sunnyday1234

Its very likely that we will see some kind of a recession in the next 12 - 18 months IMHO. We havent had one in a long time and the tech cycle seems to be approaching its peak (again IMO)

I work in IT and see lots of consolidation happening and M+A .

I dont think house prices would collapse during a recession as it would most likely be just a standard 3 -6 month recession as opposed to the big collapse we saw the last time

LirW

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Just heard a statistic on the radio.

39% of people believe now is a good time to buy.

It's a good time to buy when you get credit without overstretching yourself. That's what a lot of people seem to forget. Sure thing the bottom of the market is amazing to buy but it's a lot more difficult to secure credit then as average Joe.

I do see it as problematic when circumstances could change and lots of jobs would be wiped out and even secure areas are not secure anymore. Then sh1t is going to hit the fan.

LirW

LirW wrote: »

It's a good time to buy when you get credit without overstretching yourself. That's what a lot of people seem to forget. Sure thing the bottom of the market is amazing to buy but it's a lot more difficult to secure credit then as average Joe.

I do see it as problematic when circumstances could change and lots of jobs would be wiped out and even secure areas are not secure anymore. Then sh1t is going to hit the fan.

The bottom was 7/8 years ago surely?

If you can afford the repayments without stretching and you are buying a home with the intention of living there for decades it's not a bad time to buy. Accepting that 2 years ago was better :pac:

I bought in 2005, 2011 and 2014 ........... I'd class one of them as a bad time to buy in hindsight. I wouldn't be of the 39% thinking now is a good time to buy.

Boatswain

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Its very likely that we will see some kind of a recession in the next 12 - 18 months IMHO. We havent had one in a long time

2012 was a long time ago?

LirW

I was more talking about the bright lights that go on about "I should have bought in the downturn when houses were feck all". Yes darling, I get you but as a first time buyer you'd have had a hard time securing a mortgage.

The one thing I see as a good thing is that now that people can buy and have money again, a lot of updating and renovating is happening and eventually that stock will come onto the market again. Not a bad thing when houses are better insulated, have updated layouts, better windows and doors.
Of course if the market goes downhill, some people might never recoup these costs.

Even here in St.Ballybacksticks everything that's cheap is bought straight away and either gutted and rebuilt or gets an extensive renovation to bring it into 2018. Not a bad thing at all me thinks.