Inevitable Crash

Zenify

This isn't a post where I'm telling people something is going to happen - just want some feedback on my thoughts. I'm no expert but there's a sense in my head that something isn't right.

I never expected the economy (irish and world) to take off again in the last few years and it doesn't feel "real" to me. The growth all has some sort of a fake feeling to it. Nobody is explaining where this new wealth is coming from.

Central banks have low interest rates and are in essence printing money with quntative easing. This means that the pubic are spening borrowed money and this in turn is powering growth, creating more jobs thus further increasing spending. Eventually the top of the pyramid will stop spending money due to amount of dept and the whole thing will collapse.

I'm only in my 20s so haven't been around that long to experience other times if they felt "real" or "fake"....

Thoughts?

UsBus

Zenify wrote: »

This isn't a post where I'm telling people something is going to happen - just want some feedback on my thoughts. I'm no expert but there's a sense in my head that something isn't right.

I never expected the economy (irish and world) to take off again in the last few years and it doesn't feel "real" to me. The growth all has some sort of a fake feeling to it. Nobody is explaining where this new wealth is coming from.

Central banks have low interest rates and are in essence printing money with quntative easing. This means that the pubic are spening borrowed money and this in turn is powering growth, creating more jobs thus further increasing spending. Eventually the top of the pyramid will stop spending money due to amount of dept and the whole thing will collapse.

I'm only in my 20s so haven't been around that long to experience other times if they felt "real" or "fake"....

Thoughts?

My thoughts are in terms of Ireland are that we've been winging it as a country for a fair number of years with our corporate tax structure. Outside of that we're not going that we'll. It feels like Brexit will turn out to be a disaster for us and our government is arguing over an email.. Expect an Irish election right at the most crucial European/Brexit juncture..

Internationally, it feels like Trump is supercharging the stock market right over the edge of a cliff... He has never worried about bankruptcy in his past ventures..

All opinion of course, but we know the market has to correct itself at some point.. whatever happens there will not be a soft landing.

dxhound2005

I did a search for "Crash" remembering a thread like this a while back. I didn't find that one but I see all the discussions about a crash recently have been about a crash in BitCoin.

A new crash/recession/depression is inevitable. That is how capitalism works. In America since people started measuring such things there have been about 45 of them.

The thing which I can never understand is how we are supposed to reach some state of "recovery" from each crash. The last one came when some people borrowed too much money for property speculation, making everyone with property a lot richer for a while. I don't want to "recover" to that scenario. Nor can I remember any golden age in our past that I want to recover to either. Certainly not mortgage rates and unemployment rates of 18% which I lived through.

JonDoe

https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/christopher-quigley/kondratieff-waves-and-the-greater-depression-of-2013-2020

The last 10 years have been a fake recovery, the central banks were not positioned to save themselves back in 2007-8. The collapse has been stalled by worldwide QE, there has been no taper, hell they're running out of things to buy. Banking regulations were changed back in 2012, a depositor is no longer a depositor but a low graded creditor, the ECB is currently talking about dropping deposit protection. Ireland is toast, selling each other damp houses again won't cut it. We can export all the food but that didn't work so well back in the 1840's. Multinationals will leave in droves once this kicks in. The illusion could fracture tomorrow for all I know, but it will and in the next year or so.
I'm looking to move to Malta, at least I can sleep rough without freezing to death.
Good Luck

Arthur Daley

Or Cyprus. Seeing how they've already seen the theft of some of their deposits by the Central banking cabal.

trixiebust

The idea that IDA jobs are good - to a certain extent yes. But Ireland & multinationals currently have a warped love affair going on.

lmimmfn

trixiebust wrote: »

The idea that IDA jobs are good - to a certain extent yes. But Ireland & multinationals currently have a warped love affair going on.

Ireland seems to base its economy on one trick ponies most of the time, at least in recent decades, the whole multinational dependence and non taxation of their profits will only last so long, the next recession will be the worst because we're still taxed to the hilt from the last recession and a lot of income tax revenue is based on multinationals employing people. We're dependent on the US now more than ever which is very dangerous coupled with brexit and meat exports which helped us export our way to restoring some form of economy.

The multinational situation isint sustainable, funny thing is that everyone in Ireland knew in 2004 that the housing bubble was going to crash hard.

*Disclaimer* I'm obviously no expert, I found the thread interesting and have been thinking the same thing recently. At least I'll be somewhat prepared for the next one.

dxhound2005

lmimmfn wrote: »

The multinational situation isint sustainable, funny thing is that everyone in Ireland knew in 2004 that the housing bubble was going to crash hard.

Not the way I remember it. Nor had the word got through to most of the people on Boards when this thread was started in 2006.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=50839557

Thargor

The debt explosion in China is probably the most toxic financial event ever created, it might have years left to run but theres literally no upper limit on how badly it could go for them and how much damage it could do globally, its hard to wrap your head around how big it is, accurate figures are hard to come by.
Then again the ageing population in the West combined with upcoming pension crises is just as bad, lots to be pessimistic about.

daheff

dxhound2005 wrote: »

I didn't find that one but I see all the discussions about a crash recently have been about a crash in BitCoin.

to me, BitCoin has all the hallmarks of a bubble. Its rising fast, plenty of people who know nothing about it are looking to buy in.....can see this ending in tears.

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Or Cyprus. Seeing how they've already seen the theft of some of their deposits by the Central banking cabal.

Ireland was the first attempt at a bail-in (remember the pension fund plundering?)

Cyprus took it to another level. But now that both of these have happened, its the defacto way to survive another crash. Its already happened and to little complaint.

Deub

The problem with bitcoin is it is not attached to anything like stocks that are attached to companies and the market they are in.

China is definitely a risk. They injected a lot of money in their economy in recent years. They plan to decrease this policy and that is the reason why they are opening their market to foreign investment.

I read an article about US retail shops not going well. They may see a retail crash next year. It started with toy'r'us. Apparently there was this year almost as much shops closed as at the peak of the crash in 2008.

2018 will be an interesting year.

Underground

JP Morgan reckon the next crash will happen next year when the Fed starts to unwind it's balance sheet. Time will tell.

alb

Deub wrote: »

The problem advantage with bitcoin is it is not attached to anything like stocks that are attached to companies and the market they are in.

FTFY

deathtocaptcha

We're in uncharted territory because there's more money / debt than ever before. A bubble can't pop if you keep supply more money for people to buy in to it... it will just keep getting bigger.

It only starts to pop when you stop supplying money and / or start calling for people to pay debts - at which stage they need to stop spending / investing and start selling.

Raising interest rates, reducing quantitative easing & governments selling assets they've bought during the recession are all signs we've topped out but we won't get a reversal overnight, it could run on for another couple of years before some black swan event kick starts a reversal.

The question is what happens during the next global recession... do we continue to raise debt, lower interest rates and print more money? Something something Einstein insanity...

I believe that cryptocurrency will eventually prosper during the next global recession (probably not immediately) as we'll see more examples of hyperinflation and more confidence / trust in math and the idea of a fixed supply of currency / currency transparency in which no one entity or small group of individuals control. It's going to become a real pain the ass for governments and banks to the extent they'll be forced to embrace it or face losing massive amounts of business to more crypto-friendly jurisdictions.

Geuze

Zenify wrote: »

Central banks have low interest rates and are in essence printing money with quntative easing. This means that the pubic are spening borrowed money and this in turn is powering growth, creating more jobs thus further increasing spending.

Households save some of their income.

They spend less than they earn.

Clearly many consumers have debts, yes, but overall the hh sector is a saver.

Zenify

Geuze wrote: »

Households save some of their income.

They spend less than they earn.

Clearly many consumers have debts, yes, but overall the hh sector is a saver.

Yes, but my question isn't just about saving or spending for households. Where is this income coming from? The economic growth which is paying them is being powered by the free money policies of the Central Banks. Somebody, somewhere is eventually going to have to pay it back.

I'm just not sure if I'm thinking like this because I like drama or if it is looming.

dxhound2005

Zenify wrote: »

Yes, but my question isn't just about saving or spending for households. Where is this income coming from? The economic growth which is paying them is being powered by the free money policies of the Central Banks. Somebody, somewhere is eventually going to have to pay it back.

I'm just not sure if I'm thinking like this because I like drama or if it is looming.

There is no need to worry about paying off debt. Unless someone can tell me different, I believe that every country in the world is in debt. So if it is called in, they will just be paying some money out and getting some back.

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Francie Barrett

Thargor wrote: »

The debt explosion in China is probably the most toxic financial event ever created, it might have years left to run but theres literally no upper limit on how badly it could go for them and how much damage it could do globally, its hard to wrap your head around how big it is, accurate figures are hard to come by.
Then again the ageing population in the West combined with upcoming pension crises is just as bad, lots to be pessimistic about.

Did you not create a thread a year ago saying you were so worried about a crash you couldn't invest? I am not being smart, but was that a winning strategy for you?

Thargor

Yeah and things were nearly as shaky looking back then, better analysts than you or I were saying the exact same things then as they are now regarding insane equity valuations, debt, global housing bubbles etc but now everything is even worse. I still think something has to give.

On a personal level seeing as you're obviously worried about my investment strategy...

In the last year Ive been about 25% Lithium/10% crypto/65% cash (Prizebonds and State Savings) and have seen very good returns (apart from the State Savings but I wouldn't be comfortable risking more), I also maxed out my pension even though Im pessimistic about those aswell. Wish Id been braver but hindsight is always wonderful. Anyway what I have invested has done surprisingly well and Im nearly at my personal goal of securing a 3 bedroom house close to work that I plan on living in with a couple of tenants to eliminate the rent I currently pay and take advantage of the 14k tax free rent a room scheme. That plus saving 50% of my salary will let me be more of a risk-taker and Ill be gunning for even better returns.

soirish

St. Nikolai Velimirovic - About the World Crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibhKGbPHHvs

Taylor365

Thargor wrote: »

Yeah and things were nearly as shaky looking back then, better analysts than you or I were saying the exact same things then as they are now regarding insane equity valuations, debt, global housing bubbles etc but now everything is even worse. I still think something has to give.

On a personal level seeing as you're obviously worried about my investment strategy...

In the last year Ive been about 25% Lithium/10% crypto/65% cash (Prizebonds and State Savings) and have seen very good returns (apart from the State Savings but I wouldn't be comfortable risking more), I also maxed out my pension even though Im pessimistic about those aswell. Wish Id been braver but hindsight is always wonderful. Anyway what I have invested has done surprisingly well and Im nearly at my personal goal of securing a 3 bedroom house close to work that I plan on living in with a couple of tenants to eliminate the rent I currently pay and take advantage of the 14k tax free rent a room scheme. That plus saving 50% of my salary will let me be more of a risk-taker and Ill be gunning for even better returns.

That's been my plan too for the last 2 years, except i'm in 100% cash (making 1% per year).

Only now am I getting setup on degiro and throwing 30-40% into some US domiciled etfs. Pick a few indexes and come back to it in 3-5 years.

I don't see a crash for another 15-20 years. If there is before then, happy days - BUY BUY BUY! :pac:

Zenify

Anyone like to update on their thoughts here?

JonDoe

The crash has been happening all year to anyone "woke". It's only the poster boy's Dow and S&P that have had the pig lipstick applied. The smart money is now out, the MSM have lately been saying we see a recession in 2020, well they're lying to you again it's here now.
Ireland is screwed, the increase in GDP over the last few years has been a combination of increasing our national debt from 90Bn to 210Bn and that's after bailing out all the big boys with NAMA etc (which increased out debt from 45 to 90BN), so it's government spending borrowed money and some increased business in the IFSC, some entity bought 400Bn of US treasuries there when the taper began.
Watch out below for DBK come the 27th, shares are down 60% on the year and currently hovering at €7 a close below that mark is disaster. GE bank stateside too is on it's way out. Bail ins coming, those of you in cash, I hope it's under your mattress. Buy things that you will need and use now, keep some cash, it will be king for a short time, then there's metals in your physical possession and a speculative punt 1-5% in crypto off exchange, cold storage paper wallet.

Best of Irish luck to you all!

michealkc

JonDoe wrote: »

The crash has been happening all year to anyone "woke". It's only the poster boy's Dow and S&P that have had the pig lipstick applied. The smart money is now out, the MSM have lately been saying we see a recession in 2020, well they're lying to you again it's here now.
Ireland is screwed, the increase in GDP over the last few years has been a combination of increasing our national debt from 90Bn to 210Bn and that's after bailing out all the big boys with NAMA etc (which increased out debt from 45 to 90BN), so it's government spending borrowed money and some increased business in the IFSC, some entity bought 400Bn of US treasuries there when the taper began.
Watch out below for DBK come the 27th, shares are down 60% on the year and currently hovering at €7 a close below that mark is disaster. GE bank stateside too is on it's way out. Bail ins coming, those of you in cash, I hope it's under your mattress. Buy things that you will need and use now, keep some cash, it will be king for a short time, then there's metals in your physical possession and a speculative punt 1-5% in crypto off exchange, cold storage paper wallet.

Best of Irish luck to you all!

"Buy things that you will need and use now".

How about buying a house right now? Prices are at a high again, I don't know if they will soon drop away. The dollar looks like it will be in trouble. I dont know if the Euro is strong enough to stand on its own 2 feet unaffected. House prices may not collapse due to the fact that the supply is low here.

NSAman

There is obviously a crash coming.

I live in the States but come home a lot and travel through Europe extensively.

The last bubble was unreal for me. I worked and saved through the whole thing. Never taking holidays, not purchasing a house (mainly luck as the price went up 150% over night while trying to buy it, that for me was the indicator of madness).

Currently, there are some with money. There is still that feeling that all the “advancement” is not real. The general populace is not seeing massive benefits. The taxing to pay back previous debts, the house price being used as an indicator above all else... to me means that there is certain doom ahead again and probably worse than ever.

I have since that first foray into the housing market purchased the same house for 25% of the original figure thats a saving of 300K on the sale price that some eeejit paid for it and for cash.

My debts have all been paid apart from my mortgage in the US. I can honestly say I am very wary of the future, Not because of Trump but due to European policy.

I am no expert in International finance, but something does NOT feel right about the near future to me and I have taken steps to protect myself as much as possible.

JonDoe

Don't buy a house, unless that is you've just won the lottery and have all the cash and you're sure this is the place I'm going to die in. The housing market is totally fake. NAMA and Vulture fund supply was kept off the market and is now being drip fed into a "CRISIS" market. I've friends that have just come out of negative equity and have had the opportunity to switch to fixed rate for 7 years.
There's a huge liquidity crisis coming, housing will drop like a stone, things that you consume on the other hand will explode in price. Good book to read "When Money Dies", study of what happened in Germany, the Middle Classes got ****'d, still had their big villa's, professional jobs but no fire wood, furniture or funds to pay the help, plumber, carpenter, builder, TAXES.
Think "When your assets become liabilities", there's a minimal property tax right now but now it's there it will get ramped up in next crisis as you're trapped, easily plucked. Look at property taxes stateside, €1000 a month is common enough.

BrokenArrows

JonDoe wrote: »

There's a huge liquidity crisis coming, housing will drop Look at property taxes stateside, €1000 a month is common enough.

You can't compare something like that.

US income tax for the average person is much lower so they pay taxes in other ways such as high property tax.

UsBus

UsBus wrote: »

My thoughts are in terms of Ireland are that we've been winging it as a country for a fair number of years with our corporate tax structure. Outside of that we're not going that we'll. It feels like Brexit will turn out to be a disaster for us and our government is arguing over an email.. Expect an Irish election right at the most crucial European/Brexit juncture..

Internationally, it feels like Trump is supercharging the stock market right over the edge of a cliff... He has never worried about bankruptcy in his past ventures..

All opinion of course, but we know the market has to correct itself at some point.. whatever happens there will not be a soft landing.

Interesting to look back at my thoughts on this just over a year ago.
I still feel our corporate tax take will take a turn for the worse. I hope we don't have to bargain with it to get us out of the Brexit mess.

The Irish election is on hold for the moment but for how long if the housing health crisis worsens..?

As expected, Trump's policies are coming to a head, the stock market is in the middle of a correction, how much, early next year will tell..

I've seen a number of posts stating the lack of supply in housing will keep the cost of buying from crashing. I just don't understand that logic. If global economies get into trouble, Ireland won't avoid the effects of a downturn. There will be an exodus from property, whether that be investment or 1 off landlords as people try to get out in time.
It will be different to the crisis of 08, but it could be much worse this time.. I'm waiting to purchase but I'm saving like mad in the meantime for what will hopefully be a cash purchase of property..

jimbobaloobob

Is there any truth in looking at who are affording mortgages at the current time?

I remember watching a movie about the last crash and a group of people in New York were profiling professions there. They saw that a lot of the people coming to them for financial advice were in jobs like dancing, waiting etc. Then reckoned this was a warning sign based on their income.
Not off topic i hope.

UsBus

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

Is there any truth in looking at who are affording mortgages at the current time?

I remember watching a movie about the last crash and a group of people in New York were profiling professions there. They saw that a lot of the people coming to them for financial advice were in jobs like dancing, waiting etc. Then reckoned this was a warning sign based on their income.
Not off topic i hope.

Think this was 'the big short' iirc. I had a similar feeling about Bitcoin this time last year when your average Sunday newspaper columnist was discussing the pros and cons of cryptocurrency...

EdgeCase

The housing market in Ireland at best in a temporary glitch that will eventually see supply ramp up again and prices fall to medium levels (that's the ideal scenario).

At worst it's in a bubble that will crash dramatically.

Either way, I would not be so foolish as to pin my hopes on a rising Irish house price. It's insane, shows no understanding of recent economic history (from barely a few years ago).

Even without a crash, the current house price level is a social disaster and is rightfully politically unsustainable and needs to be regulated. Even in a good economic outcome anyone seriously jumping on speculating on Irish residential property is flogging a dead horse.

Geuze

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

Is there any truth in looking at who are affording mortgages at the current time?

I remember watching a movie about the last crash and a group of people in New York were profiling professions there. They saw that a lot of the people coming to them for financial advice were in jobs like dancing, waiting etc. Then reckoned this was a warning sign based on their income.
Not off topic i hope.

Due to the CBI macroprudential rules, mortgage lending is much more responsible now.

BrokenArrows

Geuze wrote: »

Due to the CBI macroprudential rules, mortgage lending is much more responsible now.

Yes it much more responsible. But that isn't that much saying much comparing to what it was before the last crash which was "hey take our money".

If the price of any house is significantly above its actual value and they are still giving mortgages then it's irresponsible.

Jim2007

BrokenArrows wrote: »

If the price of any house is significantly above its actual value and they are still giving mortgages then it's irresponsible.

How would you determine this so called actual value?

If as a lender I ensure that I have been provided with a valuation from a reputable firm, the loan is well below the valuation provided, the borrower has a sound employment record and they have obtained income protection, who am I being irresponsible.

Kidkinobe

Inevitable crash indeed, but then there will be an inevitable boom followed by an inevitable crash followed by an inevitable boom...and every one of them will be said to worse/greater than the last one...1000 years from now, people will still be talking about crashes and booms.
Life goes on, Im in the process of buying a house right now, no mortgage, but I can safely say, no matter what the economy does over the next few years, in 10 years time, the house will be worth twice what I am paying for it. Thats the nature of the cyclical beast. crash boom crash boom crash boom.
And as for Brexit, pffffftttttt....people will be running around like headless chickens for a year or two whether it be a 'deal or no deal' exit...sensational headlines will be the norm in the papers 'we are all going to die' type thing..but then one day people will wake up and realise they are not actually dying and that everything is just like it was before Brexit...Same with China and their sensationalised debt, you can read all the doom and gloom stories in the papers till the cows come home, but the simple fact is, life will go on and the boom/bust cycle will continue.

EdgeCase

Ireland is a boom-bust cycle economy, like most of the anglophone countries. We are in the Eurozone but we still follow a similar cycle to the UK and US, not Germany and central Europe.

That may eventually even out but you can see the exact same mentality here as you see in most of the US, Canada, Australia and the UK. Asset bubbles and speculation on housing followed by slow downs and busts.

badboyblast

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Inevitable crash indeed, but then there will be an inevitable boom followed by an inevitable crash followed by an inevitable boom...and every one of them will be said to worse/greater than the last one...1000 years from now, people will still be talking about crashes and booms.
Life goes on, Im in the process of buying a house right now, no mortgage, but I can safely say, no matter what the economy does over the next few years, in 10 years time, the house will be worth twice what I am paying for it. Thats the nature of the cyclical beast. crash boom crash boom crash boom.
And as for Brexit, pffffftttttt....people will be running around like headless chickens for a year or two whether it be a 'deal or no deal' exit...sensational headlines will be the norm in the papers 'we are all going to die' type thing..but then one day people will wake up and realise they are not actually dying and that everything is just like it was before Brexit...Same with China and their sensationalised debt, you can read all the doom and gloom stories in the papers till the cows come home, but the simple fact is, life will go on and the boom/bust cycle will continue.

Twice , do you really believe that ?

UsBus

JonDoe wrote: »

Watch out below for DBK come the 27th, shares are down 60% on the year and currently hovering at €7 a close below that mark is disaster.

DBK closed at 6.75 today, reaching a 52 week low of 6.68
Yesterday's rise could well have been shorters covering themselves. Dow Jones back on a losing streak again today. I have one stock in the green right now, very tempted to sell it off in case things worsen in the new year..

greenfield21

https://mobile.twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1078005348265615366

soirish

So a year ago, everything was too expensive; now everything is too scary.

ArnieSilvia

I've been watching some independent sources and what becomes clear is that indeed, "this time it's different":rolleyes:

This time the debt mountain was not created by individual banks lending to households to purchase mortgages. It was created by central banks supplying cheap credit to big corpo allowing them to borrow money to buy back shares, artificially increasing share prices and giving impression that all is great. It also allowed smart money to buy whole companies and flip them later at inflated price. It all works until there is enough supply of cheap money and until the interest rates are low.

There's mountain of debt worldwide but US situation is particularly bad, as the debt levels increased much much faster than the GDP. They can't increase the interest rates because it would mean increased cost of servicing their debt which they can't afford.

Meanwhile, the wages did not increase much in the last decade, I certainly can't see the "recovery" among people I know. All this "recovery" is virtual money that was channelled to the 1%.

I've been watching the share prices in the last 6 months and the picture is bleak, property developers (ie.Cairn, Glenview) plummeted, banks plummeted, seems that DB operated just like Lehman Brothers did - totally reckless stuff

A lot laughed at me at the property market forum that I mentioned bitcoin but I watch it closely as an indicator of sentiment towards extreme risk. The moment it fell off the cliff few weeks back, I started getting worried.

One of the things preceding the Big Depression in US was that ordinary Joe was into shares, people who had no clue would be invested in something they don't understand. This time even teachers at my son's school were buying bitcoin.

In my opinion we are already 6 months into big downturn.

This time my worry is that the crisis will be so big that it might cause civil unrest. I presume that Chinese that hold lots of US debt won't be impressed at losing their money due to devaluation of $, high inflation or high interest rates.
US might try to pull the stunt of inflation to wipe their debt off but not a hope to pull this with Chinese.
Some commentator said that US was credited by poorer countries buying their bonds but no more because everything evened out and these countries don't want to lend any more to US.

Also, I was in US recently and what hit me was that it was so terribly run down and just poor (NYC, NJ state). Roads, infrastructure, shops - old, ugly and in bits ???
I draw a direct comparison with my home town in Poland where it's unrecognisable from 1990. It's back to it's full glory, everything done up etc. You can see where the money went, and Poland has only caught the wind few years back after a period of pure robbery, facilitated by politicians hired by western (UK in particular) investment banks. Same happened in few other countries so this source of money to the West has dried up. There was a failed attempt to pull the same stunt with Ukraine which failed, however I saw parallel situation in countries that joined EU recently.

In anticipation of change, we cashed out of housing market here (bought in 2012-13 sold 2018) and probably will move somewhere where we could buy for cash. It is possible, because my personal goal over last 10 years was to build a skill set that is transferable to any country hence I can move where the work is and don't need to rely on local economy.

My biggest worry is that I have cash in the banks that I don't trust at all (BOI) and unfortunately Santander bought the bank I had my account in in Poland.
I think that the only thing I could do is to spread the risk, maybe keep money in a basket of different currencies as well.

Investing in shares is not for me, maybe in raising market but not now, too much volatility. And I learned my lesson that there's no logic these days and the share market, which should have not risen to this levels did (should level out in early 2010's) only because of QE which was a total robbery and transfer of even more wealth to the 1%.

So yeah, it is too scary to invest anywhere but to keep cash in banks is even more scary.

JonDoe

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

So yeah, it is too scary to invest anywhere but to keep cash in banks is even more scary.

Think it was 2014 the bail in doctrine was finally pushed into law amongst G20 nations, no longer a depositor but a creditor to the banks when you lodge your hard earned cash. You're a low end creditor too ranked well below derivative bets.
Cash will be good to have on hand but if left in a bank you'll be out of pocket when things kick off.
Metals finally look to have turned, COMEX lost control of Palladium in the last few years so it's possible you could have shiny future with Gold and Silver.
https://www.silver-to-go.com/en/silver-coins/

ArnieSilvia

While watching one of German documentaries I heard that wealthy Germans are withdrawing cash (physical notes) from the bank and locking it in the same bank's individual lockers (the ones used for jewellery etc). It might be just a hearsay but nevertheless, it's one of the methods to avoid bailing in the bank.

I also noticed that quite a lot of people predicting downturn suggest Gold, however they have invested in it as well (Peter Shiff for example) and are brokers for same so this limits their own credibility and making all their doomsday predictions corrupt (they benefit from like minded people who buy gold through them).

I got burnt with gold a while back, the dynamics of gold price drops in 2013 was equivalent to bitcoin in the early 2018 - maybe there is a correlation between those scenarios?

Gentleman Off The Pitch

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

I've been watching ..

In anticipation of change, we cashed out of housing market here (bought in 2012-13 sold 2018) and probably will move somewhere where we could buy for cash. It is possible, because my personal goal over last 10 years was to build a skill set that is transferable to any country hence I can move where the work is and don't need to rely on local economy.

...

It would be interesting to hear more about the skill set, although I'd understand if you'd prefer to keep that to yourself

JonDoe

Burnt in Gold... I've been through all that entire Market cycle not just the run up an pop. Right now feels like it's were I entered the cycle. Happy I'm still there...
At least empty a spare wardrobe and fill it with food for a few months, cost you 1k and you'll never have to run to the shops when you run out of tea, sugar.... peas.. rice.. ever again, less stress it's a win.
Try look at wealth as what you have and not a number on a screen. The metals aren't for a speculation, they're a store of value, if everything goes to Sh1* then they will conserve your lifes effort for whatever comes next.
Best of Luck

pearcider

Gold is like an insurance policy , very effective hedge against both deflation and inflation. It’s not an investment in the sense of making a return. But it will protect you from bail ins and devaluations. Worth having 10% of your cash savings in physical gold and silver in my opinion.

Postit

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Im in the process of buying a house right now, no mortgage, but I can safely say, no matter what the economy does over the next few years, in 10 years time, the house will be worth twice what I am paying for it.

So by your logic, a house that costs €250,000 today will be worth €500,000 in December 2028. That means the average capital return on a €250,000 outlay is ~7.2% per annum.

Furthermore, charging a conservative figure of €500 per month rent, means this property is yielding a ~9.6% total return in year one alone.

So a ~10% average return per annum no matter the prevailing economic conditions? Fair play to you. It seems like you’ve got it all sussed out!


PS - You should get in touch with some of the major investment banks. With a claim like this, I’m quite sure they will offer you a six-figure base salary job on the spot.

Amirani

JonDoe wrote: »

Think it was 2014 the bail in doctrine was finally pushed into law amongst G20 nations, no longer a depositor but a creditor to the banks when you lodge your hard earned cash. You're a low end creditor too ranked well below derivative bets.
Cash will be good to have on hand but if left in a bank you'll be out of pocket when things kick off.
Metals finally look to have turned, COMEX lost control of

That's completely false. You haven't the slightest clue what you're talking about, and your "thoughts" are dangerous to genuine savers and investors on here.

JonDoe

Amirani wrote: »

That's completely false. You haven't the slightest clue what you're talking about, and your "thoughts" are dangerous to genuine savers and investors on here.

Think I hit a nerve. Go ahead if you can prove my "Dangerous" thoughts incorrect, come up with the necessary documentation.

4068ac1elhodqr

Isn't the single biggest factor (for 'Westerners') the on-going wealth shift to the East?

e.g. Just this week China announced it was aiming to replace it's stock of about 5/6,000 planes,
with it's own national brand. Bad news for Boeing/BAE.

Chi build x13 more skyscrapers than the US in 2018.

Some suggest that by 2060 China GDP will be more than the USA+EU combined.
Then put Chi+Ind+Rus together and that's 50% of total global GDP circa 2055-60.

Reckon the EU(unbrexit) +Tur+WB6 & the NAFTA area will have to merge into one single union of sorts sooner than later.

Live at Three

Alicia Incalculable Wallpaper wrote: »

Isn't the single biggest factor (for 'Westerners') the on-going wealth shift to the East?

e.g. Just this week China announced it was aiming to replace it's stock of about 5/6,000 planes,
with it's own national brand. Bad news for Boeing/BAE.

Chi build x13 more skyscrapers than the US in 2018.

Some suggest that by 2060 China GDP will be more than the USA+EU combined.
Then put Chi+Ind+Rus together and that's 50% of total global GDP circa 2055-60.

Reckon the EU(unbrexit) +Tur+WB6 & the NAFTA area will have to merge into one single union of sorts sooner than later.

What are you going to do with all the spare time you saved by typing 'Chi' instead of 'China'?





Sorry couldn't resist...