Zenify wrote: » This isn't a post where I'm telling people something is going to happen - just want some feedback on my thoughts. I'm no expert but there's a sense in my head that something isn't right. I never expected the economy (irish and world) to take off again in the last few years and it doesn't feel "real" to me. The growth all has some sort of a fake feeling to it. Nobody is explaining where this new wealth is coming from. Central banks have low interest rates and are in essence printing money with quntative easing. This means that the pubic are spening borrowed money and this in turn is powering growth, creating more jobs thus further increasing spending. Eventually the top of the pyramid will stop spending money due to amount of dept and the whole thing will collapse. I'm only in my 20s so haven't been around that long to experience other times if they felt "real" or "fake".... Thoughts?
trixiebust wrote: » The idea that IDA jobs are good - to a certain extent yes. But Ireland & multinationals currently have a warped love affair going on.
lmimmfn wrote: » The multinational situation isint sustainable, funny thing is that everyone in Ireland knew in 2004 that the housing bubble was going to crash hard.
dxhound2005 wrote: » I didn't find that one but I see all the discussions about a crash recently have been about a crash in BitCoin.
Arthur Daley wrote: » Or Cyprus. Seeing how they've already seen the theft of some of their deposits by the Central banking cabal.
Deub wrote: » The problem advantage with bitcoin is it is not attached to anything like stocks that are attached to companies and the market they are in.
Zenify wrote: » Central banks have low interest rates and are in essence printing money with quntative easing. This means that the pubic are spening borrowed money and this in turn is powering growth, creating more jobs thus further increasing spending.
Geuze wrote: » Households save some of their income. They spend less than they earn. Clearly many consumers have debts, yes, but overall the hh sector is a saver.
Zenify wrote: » Yes, but my question isn't just about saving or spending for households. Where is this income coming from? The economic growth which is paying them is being powered by the free money policies of the Central Banks. Somebody, somewhere is eventually going to have to pay it back. I'm just not sure if I'm thinking like this because I like drama or if it is looming.
Thargor wrote: » The debt explosion in China is probably the most toxic financial event ever created, it might have years left to run but theres literally no upper limit on how badly it could go for them and how much damage it could do globally, its hard to wrap your head around how big it is, accurate figures are hard to come by. Then again the ageing population in the West combined with upcoming pension crises is just as bad, lots to be pessimistic about.
Thargor wrote: » Yeah and things were nearly as shaky looking back then, better analysts than you or I were saying the exact same things then as they are now regarding insane equity valuations, debt, global housing bubbles etc but now everything is even worse. I still think something has to give. On a personal level seeing as you're obviously worried about my investment strategy... In the last year Ive been about 25% Lithium/10% crypto/65% cash (Prizebonds and State Savings) and have seen very good returns (apart from the State Savings but I wouldn't be comfortable risking more), I also maxed out my pension even though Im pessimistic about those aswell. Wish Id been braver but hindsight is always wonderful. Anyway what I have invested has done surprisingly well and Im nearly at my personal goal of securing a 3 bedroom house close to work that I plan on living in with a couple of tenants to eliminate the rent I currently pay and take advantage of the 14k tax free rent a room scheme. That plus saving 50% of my salary will let me be more of a risk-taker and Ill be gunning for even better returns.
JonDoe wrote: » The crash has been happening all year to anyone "woke". It's only the poster boy's Dow and S&P that have had the pig lipstick applied. The smart money is now out, the MSM have lately been saying we see a recession in 2020, well they're lying to you again it's here now. Ireland is screwed, the increase in GDP over the last few years has been a combination of increasing our national debt from 90Bn to 210Bn and that's after bailing out all the big boys with NAMA etc (which increased out debt from 45 to 90BN), so it's government spending borrowed money and some increased business in the IFSC, some entity bought 400Bn of US treasuries there when the taper began. Watch out below for DBK come the 27th, shares are down 60% on the year and currently hovering at €7 a close below that mark is disaster. GE bank stateside too is on it's way out. Bail ins coming, those of you in cash, I hope it's under your mattress. Buy things that you will need and use now, keep some cash, it will be king for a short time, then there's metals in your physical possession and a speculative punt 1-5% in crypto off exchange, cold storage paper wallet. Best of Irish luck to you all!
JonDoe wrote: » There's a huge liquidity crisis coming, housing will drop Look at property taxes stateside, €1000 a month is common enough.
UsBus wrote: » My thoughts are in terms of Ireland are that we've been winging it as a country for a fair number of years with our corporate tax structure. Outside of that we're not going that we'll. It feels like Brexit will turn out to be a disaster for us and our government is arguing over an email.. Expect an Irish election right at the most crucial European/Brexit juncture.. Internationally, it feels like Trump is supercharging the stock market right over the edge of a cliff... He has never worried about bankruptcy in his past ventures.. All opinion of course, but we know the market has to correct itself at some point.. whatever happens there will not be a soft landing.
jimbobaloobob wrote: » Is there any truth in looking at who are affording mortgages at the current time? I remember watching a movie about the last crash and a group of people in New York were profiling professions there. They saw that a lot of the people coming to them for financial advice were in jobs like dancing, waiting etc. Then reckoned this was a warning sign based on their income. Not off topic i hope.
