The Frances Fitzgerald controversy. Are we heading for an election?

devnull

blanch152 wrote: »

According to an online poll on the Irish Independent, only 2% of voters see the email controversy as an important issue in a general election.

It's not important at all to me in the grand scheme of things, there are many things that would come before it for me, although I guess FF are hoping that the optics of it will effect peoples opinion of FG and harm their reputation, therefore giving them a boost in the election, even if people are not so worried about the issue itself.

I thought FF would collapse the government sooner or later, but have to say that I thought that they would collapse it over something other than this, there are issues in this state and in this country that need dealing with, but I think FF have picked this one because they are trying to get one up on SF, it's basically a political stroke and makes me likely to put FF down in my voting priorities.

That was the problem in FF when they were in power last right at the end, they were only too happy to put the party before the country and the fact that they are willing to collapse a government over something like this whilst they've just stood idly by for far more important matters, shows you that leaders come and leaders go but in FF the party will always come before the country.

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It won't be about the email. Homelessness (huge emotive issue) the Health Service etc etc.

Well if it's on the later then FF are not going to score any brownie points from me, they were in power when the country had more money at any other point in it's history and the health service was even worse than it was now.

I'm not saying it's anything to shout about now, it's still bad, but FF had more opportunity and resources than anyone to fix it yet they simply made it worse and the current problems can all be traced back to then.

We'll just be back to writing blank cheques which result in extra funding but not requiring anything in return and the money will go into a black hole. All increases in spending in these areas should be in return for delivering things in return, if they don't deliver they don't get.

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

Well if it's on the later then FF are not going to score any brownie points from me, they were in power when the country had more money at any other point in it's history and the health service was even worse than it was now.

I'm not saying it's anything to shout about now, it's still bad, but FF had more opportunity and resources than anyone to fix it yet they simply made it worse and the current problems can all be traced back to then.

Just saying they will be the issues. The email won't. If Leo shys away from the border issue and the veto (I still suspect he might) that becomes an issue too.
Campaigns are dangerous things especially when the public don't want one.

Water John

Blanch, that article is now 2 days old. Things have very moved on since then. Stay with the story.

JP Liz V1

I'd say Leo thinks if there is another election, he and his party will top as he is the man :rolleyes: he is deluded, he did nothing in the positions he held before being Taoiseach

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just saying they will be the issues. The email won't. If Leo shys away from the border issue and the veto (I still suspect he might) that becomes an issue too.

Of course, but that is my point.

FF are willing to play their hand to collapse the government to score some points over SF over an issue that very few people in this state really care about in the grand scheme of things, when they could have pushed harder on the issues that people actually do care about such as the items you spoke about.

At the end of the day the whole thing is a political stroke about trying to shore up the Republican vote and making sure that any of those who are hovering over going for FF or SF don't go over to the later, it has nothing to do with what is good for the country else they would be making a bigger deal about the things that the electorate care about the most rather than having a joust with SF at the countries expense.

flaneur

To be honest, we need another general election at the moment like a hole in the head. It's going to make Ireland look unstable at a time when the UK is going completely nuts.

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

Of course, but that is my point.

FF are willing to play their hand to collapse the government to score some points over SF over an issue that very few people in this state really care about in the grand scheme of things, when they could have pushed harder on the issues that people actually do care about such as the items you spoke about.

At the end of the day the whole thing is a political stroke about trying to shore up the Republican vote and making sure that any of those who are hovering over going for FF or SF don't go over to the later, it has nothing to do with what is good for the country else they would be making a bigger deal about the things that the electorate care about the most rather than having a joust with SF at the countries expense.

And where is FG and Varadkar's responsibility in this?

There is clearly a massive issue with how the whole McCabe fiasco was handled.
Had Varadkar not misled the Dail 5 times, if Flanagan had apparently not allowed the Taoiseach to mislead the Dail. if Fitzgerald had taken responsiblity, we wouldn't be here this morning.
Leo would be appointing a new minister and we could have moved on.
But no, the arrogance of power has us at the brink of an election.

What people care about will be what the election will be about.

VinLieger

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I'd say Leo thinks if there is another election, he and his party will top as he is the man :rolleyes: he is deluded, he did nothing in the positions he held before being Taoiseach

FG in the recent polls have the largest increases, the country is relatively stable, yes there are issues but we aren't crashing back into a recession yet. Theres everyone reason to think FG would make gains with an election right now, especially in the run up to christmas when people really don't want to have to listen to politicians argue and then be made go out and vote so would possibly stick with the devil they know.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

FG in the recent polls have the largest increases, the country is relatively stable, yes there are issues but we aren't crashing back into a recession yet. Theres everyone reason to think FG would make gains with an election right now, especially in the run up to christmas when people really don't want to have to listen to politicians argue and then be made go out and vote so would possibly stick with the devil they know.

They might gain a few seats, but nowhere near enough to be a 'mandate'.

Crazy not to diffuse all of this and sack what is clearly an incompetent minister.

The public might punish FG for that if the campaign goes against them. They haven't been very good about spinning the good stuff they did without appearing arrogant.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The public might punish FG for that if the campaign goes against them.

We all knew this government wasn't going to last 5 years. Now is as good a time as any for FG - this "her emails" scandal isn't going to put off FG voters.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all knew this government wasn't going to last 5 years. Now is as good a time as any for FG - this "her emails" scandal isn't going to put off FG voters.

Which only managed to return 50 TD's last time with supposedly their greatest leader ever.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which only managed to return 50 TD's last time with supposedly their greatest leader ever.

And? That will change in a year? 2?

Nope - so now is as good a time as any.

Worst that can happen to FG is they swap places with FF.

Idbatterim

Well I won't be voting fg again. Probably won't vote full stop. Same with a few family members and friends...

Would be interesting if another party puts forward proposals to make housing in any way affordable even for workers, how many votes they could potentially win.

Zubeneschamali

Idbatterim wrote: »

Probably won't vote full stop.

Good, lends my vote a bit more weight.

Idbatterim

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Good, lends my vote a bit more weight.

I'm aware of that. Voting for the least **** option seems futile to me at this stage. Nothing but scandal after scandal here. Talk talk talk. Nothing changes. Over paid idiots in the waffle shop, also known as the dail...

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And? That will change in a year? 2?

Nope - so now is as good a time as any.

Worst that can happen to FG is they swap places with FF.

The intention expressed below is where FG could lose massively here. Their falling share of the vote just doesn't come out at all.
Anything could happen in that scenario.

Idbatterim wrote: »

Well I won't be voting fg again. Probably won't vote full stop. Same with a few family members and friends...

mattser

flaneur wrote: »

To be honest, we need another general election at the moment like a hole in the head. It's going to make Ireland look unstable at a time when the UK is going completely nuts.

No need. Just hand the reins over to the shinners and AAA and the like. Sure employment will rocket and homelessness will shrink. That's what they've been leading us to believe, so let them at it.

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

Well I won't be voting fg again. Probably won't vote full stop. Same with a few family members and friends...

Would be interesting if another party puts forward proposals to make housing in any way affordable even for workers, how many votes they could potentially win.

Would you only vote on one agenda? A bit narrow minded. One must use their vote. It’s their voice and their chance to be heard. The fact that one mightn’t like what they’re hearing is their own problem. We DO live in a democracy after all.

McMurphy

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all knew this government wasn't going to last 5 years. Now is as good a time as any for FG - this "her emails" scandal isn't going to put off FG voters.

I think it's attracting new voters they need to worry about.

50/158. Just keeping the same num isn't good enough.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And where is FG and Varadkar's responsibility in this?

There is clearly a massive issue with how the whole McCabe fiasco was handled.
Had Varadkar not misled the Dail 5 times, if Flanagan had apparently not allowed the Taoiseach to mislead the Dail. if Fitzgerald had taken responsiblity, we wouldn't be here this morning.
Leo would be appointing a new minister and we could have moved on.
But no, the arrogance of power has us at the brink of an election.

What people care about will be what the election will be about.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/this-is-reckless-politics-to-damage-a-taoiseach-simon-coveney-hits-out-at-no-confidence-motion-36349389.html

"Fianna Fáil are saying she should have acted on an email two years ago despite being told clearly she should not. She has since got advice from the Attorney General that backs this up."


This is one time when the Government might publish the Attorney General's advice.

If Coveney is right on this, it makes the SF/FF move definitely a stroke and nothing to do with any substantive issue, not even the McCabe one.

There is definitely an element of hysteria around this issue - someone didn't act on an email that said that they legally couldn't act on, which has since been confirmed by the Attorney General - and while that won't come to the fore in the rush to condemn before next week, it is something that will be reflected on during an election campaign when people start to ask why are we having an election.

The whole thing looks like FF going after the SF vote while there is a lame-duck leader in charge.

Hitman3000

FG and their supporters blaming everyone but themselves for the currant mess. Always someone else's fault. At least the arrogance is consistent.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Would you only vote on one agenda? A bit narrow minded. One must use their vote. It’s their voice and their chance to be heard. The fact that one mightn’t like what they’re hearing is their own problem. We DO live in a democracy after all.

A person can chose to vote or not, that is also a democratic choice. I do believe our political systems are more plurocratic than democratic, but are masquerading as democracy.

mattser

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/this-is-reckless-politics-to-damage-a-taoiseach-simon-coveney-hits-out-at-no-confidence-motion-36349389.html

"Fianna F are saying she should have acted on an email two years ago despite being told clearly she should not. She has since got advice from the Attorney General that backs this up."


This is one time when the Government might publish the Attorney General's advice.

If Coveney is right on this, it makes the SF/FF move definitely a stroke and nothing to do with any substantive issue, not even the McCabe one.

There is definitely an element of hysteria around this issue - someone didn't act on an email that said that they legally couldn't act on, which has since been confirmed by the Attorney General - and while that won't come to the fore in the rush to condemn before next week, it is something that will be reflected on during an election campaign when people start to ask why are we having an election.

The whole thing looks like FF going after the SF vote while there is a lame-duck leader in charge.

That's for sure. The only human casualty here is the McCabe family.

But the whole issue pales into insignificance with the thousands of families put through the ringer with the tracker mortgage scandal.

Zubeneschamali

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Just keeping the same num isn't good enough.

There is no point in clinging on hoping something will change and give them 100 seats. An election is going to happen - the only question is when.

Right now, Leo is still in a bit of a honeymoon, and economically (which is what it is really all about) things are only going to get worse from now on due to Brexit chaos.

And there is the possibility that FF know this and are bluffing. Leo looks better facing that bluff down than dancing to FF and SFs tune.

Idbatterim

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would you only vote on one agenda? A bit narrow minded. One must use their vote. It’s their voice and their chance to be heard. The fact that one mightn’t like what they’re hearing is their own problem. We DO live in a democracy after all.

I'm voting on multiple agendas. The **** infrastructure in Dublin making life a pain and it's getting worse. Outrageous accommodation costs. The outrageous rate of marginal tax. Taxing other things at farcically low levels and annihilating people at the higher rate of income tax. They are my main gripes ..

Hitman3000

mattser wrote:

But the whole issue pales into insignificance with the thousands of families put through the ringer with the tracker mortgage scandal.

FG did nothing about that either, oh wait Paschal give the banks a good talking too.

gizmo555

blanch152 wrote: »

This is one time when the Government might publish the Attorney General's advice.

If it doesn't, its defence of Fitzgerald will lack any credibility. As I mentioned above, she's repeatedly claimed that giving the Garda Commissioner her view on the legal strategy of attacking Sgt McCabe's character would have been "illegal" and a "crime" with giving the slightest explanation of what law would have been broken or what crime she would have committed.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They might gain a few seats, but nowhere near enough to be a 'mandate'.

Crazy not to diffuse all of this and sack what is clearly an incompetent minister.

The public might punish FG for that if the campaign goes against them. They haven't been very good about spinning the good stuff they did without appearing arrogant.

I don't think FG have anything to lose in an election which is why they aren't backing down.

If they gain seats, and are back in the same position of being supported by Fianna Fail in a confidence and supply agreement, they will be asking what was the whole election about, and why was it caused? That should ensure FF will be very slow to pull the plug next time.

If they lose seats, even if they remain the biggest party, they will tell the two main opposition parties that they looked for an election, it is up to them to form a government. The general public by and large don't want SF in government and FF will have that choice or going back to the first option of supporting FG.

If they lose seats, and are no longer the biggest party, Leo will say that the people have spoken and want FG in opposition, to coalition talks are for everyone else. Once again, FF will have to talk to SF and the general public don't want that. A FF/SF government won't last as inevitably all of the stories of SF's past will be repeated ad nauseum in the Independent and the Business Post while the Irish Times will wring its hands about how this was allowed to happen.

Of course, FG will spend the whole election campaign talking about how they can't trust FF in a confidence and supply arrangement and the only alternative to putting FG back in is a FF/SF government.

Hitman3000

gizmo555 wrote:

If it doesn't, its defence of Fitzgerald will lack any credibility. As I mentioned above, she's repeatedly claimed that giving the Garda Commissioner her view on the legal strategy of attacking Sgt McCabe's character would have been "illegal" and a "crime" with giving the slightest explanation of what law would have been broken or what crime she would have committed.

She also repeatedly expressed confidence in NOS even after she became aware of the strategy being pursued. So much for morals or ethics.