Zimbabwe Coup

seagull

biko wrote: »

Say what you will of Mugabe, but he's no Idi Amin Dada

Over the years, the atrocities committed under Mugabe's rule significantly outweigh what Idi Amin managed. Partly due, I suppose, to the length of time Mugabe has managed to hang onto power.

I presume the only reason Mugabe has never been hauled in front of the Hague is that he's in charge of an African country with no significant strategic resources. There is no crime that Milosevic committed that Mugabe hasn't done, except be European, and expected to behave in a civilised manner.

The Backwards Man

The change, it had to come.

Hande hoche!

Seems less violent than the Turkish attempt anyway.

diomed

Salisbury has a nice ring to it for a capital city.
That country needs a few political parties and democracy.

The_Valeyard

Something had to change, the situation in Zimbabwe was terrible. It should be the breadbasket of Africa, not an economic wasteland.

Huexotzingo

Mugabe must have run out of money to pay the army...

diomed

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Something had to change, the situation in Zimbabwe was terrible. It should be the breadbasket of Africa, not an economic wasteland.

Best land for thousands of miles, but they got rid of the farmers and gave it to party lackeys.

Mr. CooL ICE

No Toto references yet?

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

The_Valeyard

diomed wrote: »

Best land for thousands of miles, but they got rid of the farmers and gave it to party lackeys.

Thats what happens when you beat, rape and murder all the white farmers out of your country and give the land to people who have no idea how to farm.

Mr. CooL ICE

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

'bout bloody time, Rosanna

uck51js9zml2yt

diomed wrote: »

Best land for thousands of miles, but they got rid of the farmers and gave it to party lackeys.

The Mozambiqans got it right giving the farmers a lot of land after they were kicked out of zim

jmayo

Anyone remember this ?

1985 folks.

I'm hearing only bad news from Radio Africa,
I'rn hearing only sad news from Radio Africa

They've still got trouble with a monster in the South
Heads buried deep in that lion's mouth
Like a jaw snapped shut, it keeps them apart
If that jaw got broke it would be a start.

The West still complains about the foreign aid
They'd do better to change the terms of trade.
More tanks than food in the Ogaden
It looks like Moscow got it wrong again.

Mozambique and Mugabe
Still got Frelimo I hear them say
But "Exchange" means... Recession" means",
It all means "Harder to take".
Tanzania should be moving up a gear
Instead they've got to step on the brake.

Can't stop a movement that's come this far
But "Lending" means."
"Interest" means",
"Harder to Fight"
Independence has a hidden expense
When the hands on the purse strings are white

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF79sN_8g3E

Skylinehead

Rule 0 for rulers: Keep the army happy.

daheff

suicide_circus wrote: »

At least it seems to be fully domestic in nature. Can't blame the yanks if this goes tits up!

Sure we can...and the Brits too.

You don't really understand how the blame game works, do you now?

Mutant z

The bastard deserves everything he gets for the huge misery he has inflicted on the country.

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

Atoms for Peace wrote: »

Looks like it's the end of Mugabe's rule of Zimbabwe, with the military having previously threatened to intervene and now reports of explosions and soldiers on the streets looks like they're doing just that.

Remember, it is not a coup. :pac:

I love how the easiest way to tell there's been a coup is: the military puts a press statement saying there hasn't been a coup.

The Zimbabweans have a choice between disasters. Mugabe is no smaller a disaster than the military government that could replace him.

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

Huexotzingo wrote: »

Mugabe must have run out of money to pay the army...

Sort of.

Going to copy paste a conversation from my WhatsApp group. The one guy is a political buff.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita does a good job of explaining this sort of thing in The Dictator's Handbook. Basically, a common time for a regime to be overthrown is when the leader gets old or sick - not because he becomes at his job necessarily, but rather because people are part of the current "winning coalition" start to worry about who the successor will be, and worry that they won't be included in the successor's coalition - therefore some regimes become incentivized to try to quickly overthrow it while there's still a chance

The way that politicians often try to get around this is by creating political dynasties, so their dynastic successor can make it plausible to members of the current coalition to keep them on board when the transition comes.

From casual observation it seems like the succession issue is a bit of a mess. Last time I checked it seemed like Mugabe wanted to set up his wife as his chosen heir, even though she's quite popular with the rest of his coalition? Not sure what's the case now though...

Research in comparative politics shows that military regimes in Africa tend to be worse than civilian governments in every respect. They're worse in terms of human rights, they're worse in terms of economic management, they even have a terrible record for losing wars. If a successful military coup occurs, the best possible option is a quick transition to democracy. The worst possible scenario is that the military loses faith in all other institutions, and so tries to rule the country itself.

• Grace Mugabe was being lined up but it does seem that Mugabe made the mistake of not including the head of the army in these plans.
• There is maybe an opportunity here for SA and the AU to try to steer towards the first option, and away from second, if they're smart enough to take it.

seamus

Malaya Wet Dandruff wrote: »

The Zimbabweans have a choice between disasters. Mugabe is no smaller a disaster than the military government that could replace him.

Perhaps.

Coups aren't always a bad thing. It can lead to surprising reforms when someone just gets sick of a dictator's sh1t and manages to oust them. The guy who's next in line isn't always a despotic lunatic, he's just someone who's waiting for the despotic lunatic to die.

Even failed coups are often effective in damaging the current leadership's illusion of power, and/or bringing about reforms. Ireland's failed coup in 1916 is one example that brought about change. There was a failed one in Russia too, just before communism fell.

branie2

About time as well

Odhinn

biko wrote: »

Say what you will of Mugabe, but he's no Idi Amin Dada

Idi had a sense of humour. Robert Gabriel - not so much.

A Little Pony

Why don't they have elections for the President? Oh right, the place is full of leftist lunatics.

riffmongous

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why don't they have elections for the President? Oh right, the place is full of leftist lunatics.

You know the democratic opposition are also left wing right?

WinnyThePoo

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why don't they have elections for the President? Oh right, the place is full of leftist lunatics.

You don't have a foggiest. Do you?

biko

diomed wrote: »

Salisbury has a nice ring to it for a capital city.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2B4tPfcTC4

Ipso

Mutant z wrote: »

The bastard deserves everything he gets for the huge misery he has inflicted on the country.

No one will lament his passing. Right?

Hande hoche!

Malaya Wet Dandruff wrote: »

Sort of.

Going to copy paste a conversation from my WhatsApp group. The one guy is a political buff.

• Grace Mugabe was being lined up but it does seem that Mugabe made the mistake of not including the head of the army in these plans.
• There is maybe an opportunity here for SA and the AU to try to steer towards the first option, and away from second, if they're smart enough to take it.

Think there will be a transitional government fairly soon. The Saffies can apply a tremendous amount of pressure on Zimbabwe through energy imports. Also Zuma would be only too happy to get some positive press for a change.

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Think there will be a transitional government fairly soon. The Saffies can apply a tremendous amount of pressure on Zimbabwe through energy imports.

Source: I was born in SA.

SA is not the USA of Africa. Any pressure put on Zim would be a symbolic thing to show the world that they're doing something when in reality they're doing nothing. The only thing SA has ever done in relation to Zim is to monitor the legitimacy of one of their elections which was universally accepted as pointless and was actually laughed at.

How much did SA do when Bob started seizing white owned farms? Barely anything. SA politics at the time was looking to Zim as an "exemplary example" of sticking it to the colonialists.

It's this reason why SA will do next to nothing about the situation. Taking action against Zim will be seen as supporting the colonialists. SA politics is firmly rooted in racism.

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Also Zuma would be only too happy to get some positive press for a change.

African politics do not work the same as European / American politics. This is not a popularity contest.

Zuma does not care about positive press as he has surrounded himself with "cronies" who take the flak for him.

This is Zuma's go to response for any criticism directed at him.



OR

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

seamus wrote: »

Perhaps.

Coups aren't always a bad thing. It can lead to surprising reforms when someone just gets sick of a dictator's sh1t and manages to oust them. The guy who's next in line isn't always a despotic lunatic, he's just someone who's waiting for the despotic lunatic to die.

Even failed coups are often effective in damaging the current leadership's illusion of power, and/or bringing about reforms. Ireland's failed coup in 1916 is one example that brought about change. There was a failed one in Russia too, just before communism fell.

You cannot apply what happens in European coups to African coups unfortunately.

Research in comparative politics shows that military regimes in Africa tend to be worse than civilian governments in every respect. They're worse in terms of human rights, they're worse in terms of economic management, they even have a terrible record for losing wars. If a successful military coup occurs, the best possible option is a quick transition to democracy. The worst possible scenario is that the military loses faith in all other institutions, and so tries to rule the country itself.

Hande hoche!

Thanks for that Jason, food for thought. Know a pair of lads that are from Zimbabwe, will get their thoughts on the matter.