Volcanoes and their influence on our climate

sryanbruen

Scientists have shown before that volcanic eruptions lead to the cooling of the global climate with two notable eruptions in particular doing so, Mount Pinatubo of 1991 and Mount Tambora of 1815. However, what I've not found is their influence on specifically Ireland's climate and what they could mean for our weather. As a result, I have taken liberty into researching this topic.

I am currently in the works of calculating the IMTs - Irish Mean Temperatures - which is basically the Irish version of the Central England Temperature (CET), back to when Irish weather started being recorded. Hopefully, by 2019, I complete all the calculations of these - which take a long time to do so and are extremely tedious. Once I do, I'll be able to compare months'/seasons' temperature anomalies following volcanic eruptions in history such as those mentioned - though I highly doubt, I'll be able to calculate IMTs back to 1815 for Mount Tambora :P.

Focus per OP:

sryanbruen wrote: »

In my original post, I should have stated how volcanic eruptions affect the climate exactly across the globe.

Black Swan

Hi sryanbruen. Our Researcher forum sometimes acts as a clearinghouse for the Science, Health & Environment category. Your research project is both interesting and ambitious. We are currently in the process of revitalising Geography, and your ongoing research of this topic would fit nicely in that forum; consequently, I am transferring it to Geography. I will also alert a couple folks I know who are interested in volcanoes and their global impacts on the global environment. Best, Black Swan.

Fathom

Krakatoa's August 26, 1883 eruption near Indonesia. Released 11 cubic miles of ash into the atmosphere.

All of the volcanic debris from Krakatoa’s eruption caused fiery red sunsets around the world up to three years afterward. Poet Gerard Manley Hopkins, who lived in London, described the Krakatoa sunsets as “more like inflamed flesh than the lucid reds of ordinary sunsets; the glow is intense; that is what strikes everyone; it has prolonged the daylight, and optically changed the season; it bathes the whole sky, it is mistaken for the reflection of a great fire.”

dogmatix

The laki eruption of 1783 in Iceland had significant effects on europe, including Ireland.

sryanbruen

dogmatix wrote: »

The laki eruption of 1783 in Iceland had significant effects on europe, including Ireland.

Care to find any Irish weather statistics for 1783? :P Lol but thanks, I never heard of it before.

dogmatix

Surprising that – I thought the 1783 Laki eruption was very well known among the volcano community. Even I had heard of it and i'm no geologist.

You could try “The Effects of the 1783 Laki Fissure Eruption on the Weather in Ireland in 1783 and 1784” by Rachel Hammond (1999) – but this book appears to be very rare. Could not find it on Amazon.co.uk.

Also the following article discusses volcanic impacts on Ireland from the 400’s to the 1600’s – it is a bit technical and tough (for my level) but could be interesting. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024035.

Fathom

Eruptions vary. Low silica tend to flow. High silica may plug and explode. Atmospheric emissions should vary too. In like manner?

wheresmahbombs

Interesting topic, Sryan. Hope it goes well for you, I know you can do it!

Manach

On Laki, I read the book Island on Fire (kindle version)and found it very informative on the subject. Memorable were the effects it had on Iceland and how much hardships the locals underwent.

Fathom

Kilauea volcano in Hawaii. Continues to erupt. Low silica content. Flows.

Fathom

Nova Killer Volcanoes vid. Investigates elusive volcanic mega-eruption. Medieval 750 years ago. Affected global weather. Plunged earth into deep freeze. Ice core samples reveal chemical composition by age. Greenland and Antarctica samples analyzed.

Lumi

The coincidence of major volcanic eruptions around the world with periods of unusually cold weather in Ireland has been the focus of academic research Sryanbruen.

Using a combination of Irish Annalistic sources and sulphate deposition in Greenland ice-cores , Ludlow et al have reconstructed the history of cold events in Ireland from c.431-1649 CE

See
Ludlow et al, 2013 Medieval Irish chronicles reveal persistent volcanic forcing of severe winter cold events, 431–1649 CE, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 8, No 2

You can access the paper here - it’s open source
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024035


You might also consult the following (I’ve provided links where possible. Some journals you can access free of charge, others you may have to ask for help from your teachers or from researchers here, some are books your local library may be able to source for you)

Briffa K R, Jones P D, Schweingruber F H and Osborn T J 1998 Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years Nature 393 450–5


Dukes M and Eden P 1997 ‘Phew! What a scorcher’: weather records and extremes Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future ed M Hulme and E Barrow (London: Routledge) pp 262–95

Fischer E M et al 2007 European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L05707


Galvin S D, Hickey K R and Potito A P 2011 Identifying volcanic signals in Irish temperature observations since 1800 Ir. Geography 44 97–110


HICKEY, K. 2011. The historic record of cold spells in Ireland. Irish Geography, 44, 303-321.


Robock A 2000 Volcanic eruptions and climate Rev. Geophys. 38 191–219


Schneider L 2017 A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Number 9

Sweeney J 1997 Ireland Regional Climates of the British Isles ed J Mayes and D Wheeler (London: Routledge) pp 254–75

Lumi

Dr. Stephen Galvin’s thesis on The Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate and Ecology of Ireland since A.D. 1800 might also be useful for your research, Sryanbruen, even though your proposal involves different data sets.

His research focus on the extent to which five large-scale low-latitude volcanic eruptions and six lesser Iceland-based events have had on the climate and ecology of Ireland over the past 200 years. He uses archival climate data (primarily from Armagh Observatory) and dendroecological and chronological evidence.

It’s available to download from NUI Galway HERE

sryanbruen

I appreciate all the help guys (especially to Lumi above). All of your help will be acknowledged in this project.

During the course of this project, I have noticed that there hasn't been a "major" volcanic eruption since 1997. Like sure, the Iceland volcano of 2010 was quite significant but the effects of that was more localised than globally impacted rather.

It's always been said by people including some of my weather enthusiast friends, that a Winter has a high chance of being cold following a volcanic eruption like in 1815/16 or 2010/11. Since 1997, there's been very few cold Winters and a lot of them have been mild. Could this have been associated with the lack of major volcanic eruptions in the past two decades? Just a random thought I came across.

sryanbruen

Somebody showed me this interesting chart to do with solar activity, volcanic aerosols found in ice sheets, Summer maximums and Winter minimums using the CET:

Manach

I cannot remember the exact book, but the late Stephen J. Gould in one his collection of science essays wrote of the effect of solar activity on climate. The Maunder Minimum cycle from from 1640s A.D. onwards. There is a recent history book, focusing on the impact on this on society ("Global Crisis" by Parker) which is on my to buy list.

Fathom

See Peter Brannen (2017), The Ends of the World: Volcanic Apocalypses, Lethal Oceans, and Our Quest to Understand Earth's Past Mass Extinctions.

Manach

Looks like we really don't know all that much, at least according to today's slashdot: https://news.slashdot.org/story/17/11/13/0429249/new-study-suggests-we-dont-understand-supervolcanoes

Black Swan

USGS Volcano Hazards Program is a grand source of information.

Fathom

Volcano Observatory Notices for Aviation (VONA).

Black Swan

S. Solomon, et al (2011) in The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change, Science, Vol 333, Issue 6044, concluded: "Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000." Such aerosol conditions, which they suggested were variable rather than constant, "even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions," may affect global warming prediction models.

Fathom

Low silicon. Non-explosive. Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii. Would this volcano have a lesser impact on weather than the high silicon explosive type?

Fathom

Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupting dense ash cloud. What atmospheric effects are associated with volcanic paths of plumes and ash distributions?

Fathom

Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center: Volcanoes, Climate Change, Landscape Dynamics.

Fathom

European Volcano Observatory Space Services. "EVOSS is centered on the development of advanced data processing techniques that monitor ash, gas, ground deformation and temperature."

Fathom

Current Volcanic Warnings Japan

Tarjh

Fathom wrote: »

Low silicon. Non-explosive. Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii. Would this volcano have a lesser impact on weather than the high silicon explosive type?

Aerosols and particulate matter from large explosive eruptions are what have the biggest influence on climate. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI - https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/glossary/vei.html) is used to categorise events - a rule of thumb would be that those ranked at least 5 on the scale have the potential to cause a change in weather patterns.

Also, and probably more importantly, the height of the eruption column is key. A large volcanic eruption, where the material ejected stays in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) will have little impact beyond the surrounding area (this includes Eyjafjallajökul) because the aerosols, dust, etc. are likely to fall back to ground level either as a result of gravity or being incorporated into drops of rain.

However, eruption columns that extend into the stratosphere (~15-20 km in elevation, depending on where you are in the world) will find it easier to remain suspended there as there as clouds do not form at this elevation so they're far less likely to fall back down to ground level in raindrops.

Air movement in the troposphere then allows the volcanic matter to be spread throughout the planet, where it can remain for months or even years. If the eruption is large enough (like Tambora) then there can be enough material suspended in the atmosphere to change the albedo of the planet; here, the amount of incoming solar radiation is reduced as it is reflected back into space.

The bottom line is that it is the aerosols in volcanic clouds that are the principal influencers on climate.

Fathom

Tarjh wrote: »

However, eruption columns that extend into the stratosphere (~15-20 km in elevation, depending on where you are in the world) will find it easier to remain suspended there as there as clouds do not form at this elevation so they're far less likely to fall back down to ground level in raindrops.

Fathom

Many volcanoes concentrated in Pacific Ring of Fire.

Fathom

Tarjh wrote: »

Aerosols and particulate matter from large explosive eruptions are what have the biggest influence on climate.

Fathom

Interesting read: Susan Solomon, et al, Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming, Science, 5 Mar 2010, Vol. 327, Issue 5970, pp. 1219-1223.

Fathom

December 18, 2017:

The Trump administration has dropped climate change from a list of global threats in a new national security strategy...

Fathom

Good source: Stocker, T.F., et al., Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks

Black Swan

"Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society."

Source: Alan Robock, Volcanic eruptions and climate, Reviews of Geophysics, May 2000.

Fathom

Any relationship between climate change leading to polar ice caps melt and increased volcanic activity? Or are they independent?

Fathom

Volcanoes can affect the Earth's climate.

Black Swan

Fathom wrote: »

Volcanoes can affect the Earth's climate.

Grand site for USGS updates on volcano effects.

Fathom

Kilauea Volcano continues to erupt January 3, 1983 to present. Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other pollutants emitted from Kilauea Volcano on the Island of Hawaii react with oxygen and atmospheric moisture to produce volcanic smog and acid rain.

Fathom

Vent contributes to atmosphere.

Fathom

"The reanalysis of a 1958 experiment suggests that volcanic eruptions may have spawned the amino acids that contributed to the rise of life on earth." Hannah Waters, Volcanic origin of proteins? The Scientist, March 21, 2011.

sryanbruen

I apologise for the lack of updates, I really do. However, these IMTs are taking forever to calculate. I've now calculated back to 1965. After I have done all the calculating on them, I will start the comparing and researching for volcanic eruptions that occurred.

If you guys have any questions regarding the research project, feel free to throw them at me.

You have found some quite interesting links Fathom by the way, I appreciate you trying to help by posting them here.

Manach

Slightly OT and more to do with the impact that Volcanos have on human activities but the Netflix documentary "Into the Inferno" with Oscar-nominated filmmaker Werner Herzog journeys into the physical and mythical power of the world's most active volcanoes, I found excellent.

CelticRambler

@OP - while it wouldn't be classed as "hard science" if you're looking for Irish weather reports from (well) before records were kept, you might find usable accounts buried in the collection of Irish folklore kept by UCD. Although it's not the "right" way to go about things, once you had a list of candidate eruptions from the 16/17/1800s, you could look for accounts of exceptional weather in the years following those eruptions. You'd be surprised at what the "plain people" noticed and wrote down at the time.

Fathom

CelticRambler wrote: »

@OP - while it wouldn't be classed as "hard science" if you're looking for Irish weather reports from (well) before records were kept, you might find usable accounts buried in the collection of Irish folklore kept by UCD.

Good source. What about Trinity College Book of Kells and Long Room?

Manach

Volcanologists warn world is unprepared for next major eruption:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02784-7?utm_source=briefing-dy&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180307

Interesting article.

Fathom

In terms of volcano influence on climate. From above citation.

a cataclysmic volcanic disaster since at least 1815, when the eruption of Tambora in Indonesia killed tens of thousands of people and led to a ‘year without a summer’ in Europe and North America. Such world-altering blasts rank at 7 or more on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scale of eruptions, which goes to 8.

sryanbruen

I was reading up on Kieran Hickey's PDF on the historical record of cold spells in Ireland as part of Irish Geography Volume 44 Issue 2-3 and came across this part in particular which referenced volcanic eruptions and their effects on cold spells in our part of the world.

It is apparent from the descriptions of historic cold spells that there is also an important volcanic component to the record. For the year 1023 BC the Annals of the Four Masters state that ‘there was this year a huge snow with a vinious taste from which Oill-finsneachta was so called’ (Britton 1937, p. 7). Oill finsneachta has been translated as wine snow. It is likely that this unusual snow was associated with volcanic fall-out from Iceland, hence the unusual description. Similar descriptions of unusual snow are recorded for 665 BC and 538 BC. It is possible that this is just one event, but equally it could refer to two or three separate events, particularly given the fact that the information was written down long after these events took place.

The volcanic record from Iceland shows that there were eruptions in all three of these time periods, further supporting the suggestion that these eruptions are the most likely origin of these unusual snows (Hickey 2010).

Two of the historic cold spells took place as a result of major global volcanic eruptions, and it is very likely that some of the other cold spells prior to AD 1500 may also be as a result of such events. However, the record of volcanic eruptions prior to AD 1500 is very incomplete, deteriorating further as one moves back in time. The role of large scale explosive volcanic eruptions in reducing global temperature, among other effects, is well established (Eddy 1980, Dawson et al.1997, Robock 2000). Their role in previous cold periods is still under investigation (Wohletz 2000).

http://irishgeography.ie/index.php/irishgeography/article/view/48/49

As he said and like I also said in the original post of this thread, volcanic eruptions' impacts on global climate is clear and leads to cooling around the world. However, the role of volcanic eruptions on the Irish climate remains a mystery and is the reason why I decided to take out this project. I would like to present case study 1 below on the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991.

Here's some background information on the day of the Mount Pinatubo eruption.

The Mount Pinatubo eruption of June 15 1991 was the second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century, only behind the Novarupta eruption of 1912. It was some ten times larger of an eruption than that of Mount St. Helens in 1980. The eruption produced high speed avalanches of hot ash and gas, massive lahar floods as well as massive clouds of superheated volcanic material across hundreds of kilometers.

The collapse of the summit and the creation of a caldera caused major earthquakes to occur. Typhoon Yuyna struck the Philippines on the same day of the eruption. The typhoon rains helped to obscure the eruption as a result. However, measurements had shown that ash was ejected to 34km high by the most violent phase of the eruption which lasted for about three hours. Pyroclastic surges poured from the summit of the volcano reaching as far as 16km away from their original point. Typhoon rains mixed with the ash deposits causing massive lahars. The volcanic column from the crater covered an area of around 125,000 km squared leaving much of Central Luzon in darkness. Tephra fell over the majority of the South China Sea and ash falls were recorded as far away as Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

The eruption had led to huge damage across the board as you might have guessed including a death toll of 847 people which was not helped by the simultaneous arrival of Typhoon Yuyna.

The eruption injected significant quantities of aerosols and dust into the stratosphere. Sulfur dioxide oxidised in the atmosphere to produce a haze of sulfuric acid droplets, which gradually spread throughout the stratosphere over the year following the eruption. This was the largest injection of aerosols into the stratosphere since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883, which I'll look at it in a later date. This very large stratospheric injection resulted in a reduction in the normal amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface by about 10%. This in turn led to a decrease in the temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere for a few years with a temperature drop of about 0.5 or 0.6c. This may not seem like a lot at first but it is very extreme because remember, these average drops are considering all countries in the Northern Hemisphere so should not expect a very high deviation.

NOAA even don't have monthly SST charts for 1991/92 because of volcanic aerosol contamination caused by Mount Pinatubo, see below.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/monthly_mean_anom.html

These are the Irish Mean Temperatures (IMTs) for every year from 1985 to 1996. The IMT is the Central England Temperature (CET) counterpart to Ireland basically and every figure here is calculated by me using Met Éireann's historical data and the UK Met Office's data for Northern Ireland. All IMTs are provisional though so are always open to changes and fixes. I found that including these years was the suitable thing to do in this discussion about Mount Pinatubo.

The years I decided to use specifically to see if there's any cooling going on in Ireland were 1991, 1992 and 1993. As can be seen below, these three years were the coolest since 1987 though not spectacularly cool, in fact, using the 1961-90 averages, they would have been warmer than average years. But they were still cooler than anything from 1988 to 1995. 1996 was a cool year probably because it was the year of solar minimum, same with 1986.

Summer 1991 was when the eruption occurred so I will only focus on seasons from that point on up until the end of 1993. Summer 1991 was a fairly warm Summer but June 1991 was very cool and it was one of the coldest Junes of the 20th century. September 1991 broke records for warmth at the beginning of the month. October was cooler than average whilst November was close to normal on the cool side. December was anticyclonic but mild and very dull. 1991/92 was a very unusual Winter with mild, very dry and dull conditions persisting during much of it. 1991 had a total of 5 cooler than average months in comparison to 3 months in 1990 and 2 months in 1989.

March 1992 was mild but very wet. April was cold and very wet. May though was very warm and was the warmest on record for some. June was warm and July started off warm but then went down hill with a rapid deterioration into August bringing the coldest August since 1986. The Autumn of 1992 was very cool too with one of the coldest Octobers on record, perhaps somewhat moderated by a rather mildish November. December though was cool. 1992 had a total of 5 cooler than average months just like 1991.

1993 started off very mild in January to April but May was cooler than average with a notably cold day on the 14th, a maximum of only 6c at Dublin Airport on this day. Each of the Summer months was cooler than average especially August and the daytime temperatures. These colder than average conditions continued into Autumn - for the second year in a row - with again October 1993 being one of the coldest Octobers on record just like October 1992. November 1993 had some notable early snowfalls and before 2010, they were the most notable early snowfalls for November. December was milder than average. 1993 had a total of 7 cooler than average months. 1993 to no surprise was the coolest year out of the trilogy.

It seems that after the initial volcanic eruption in June 1991, the number of cooler than average months annually in Ireland increased up to 1993. 1991 was at a time when solar maximum was a thing and just on its way out towards solar minimum in 1996 so cold would struggle to take place in the Winter, just like it did for Solar Cycle 24 with Winters 2013-14 to 2016-17.

Year|Jan|Feb|Mar|Apr|May|Jun|Jul|Aug|Sep|Oct|Nov|Dec|Ann
1996|6.7|4.5|6.6|8.8|8.9|13.9|15.7|15.6|13.7|11.1|6.5|4.4|9.7
1995|6.1|6.8|6.7|9.1|11.2|14.4|16.9|18.2|13.3|11.7|8.2|4.1|10.6
1994|6.2|5.0|7.7|8.1|10.6|12.9|15.5|14.7|12.3|10.2|9.8|6.7|10.0
1993|6.3|7.3|8.2|9.4|10.4|13.5|14.9|14.5|12.5|8.0|6.6|5.3|9.7
1992|6.1|6.4|7.9|8.6|12.5|14.5|15.7|14.2|12.2|8.1|7.6|4.8|9.9
1991|5.0|4.5|7.9|8.6|11.9|11.5|15.9|16.4|14.1|9.2|7.0|6.4|9.9
1990|6.9|7.0|8.5|8.3|12.4|12.9|16.1|16.7|12.8|10.5|7.0|4.8|10.3
1989|7.0|6.3|7.8|6.4|12.9|13.8|17.8|16.0|13.1|10.9|7.4|4.9|10.4
1988|5.9|5.5|7.9|8.9|11.4|14.6|13.5|14.8|12.6|9.9|6.9|7.2|10.0
1987|4.7|5.2|6.5|9.1|10.9|12.2|15.6|15.8|12.8|8.7|7.1|6.0|9.6
1986|5.0|-0.5|5.9|5.2|10.1|13.9|15.1|13.1|11.3|10.0|7.7|5.8|8.6
1985|2.3|5.4|6.7|9.0|10.8|12.6|15.3|13.8|13.9|10.5|4.5|6.4|9.3
Mean|5.5|5.3|7.1|8.5|11.3|13.7|15.4|15.4|13.0|10.1|7.2|5.6|9.8

Fathom

Oill finsneachta has been translated as wine snow. It is likely that this unusual snow was associated with volcanic fall-out from Iceland

Wine snow. Interesting expression.

star gazer

Kilauea

The Kilauea Volcano on Hawaii's Big Island has come to life, belching ash into the sky and spewing fountains of lava in a residential area where people were ordered to leave their homes, officials said.
...
The eruption happened after a series of earthquakes on the island over the last couple of days, including a 5.0 tremor yesterday morning, the US Geological Survey reported on its website.

star gazer

Magnitude 6.9 earthquake among the 200+ others in the area around Kilauea in the past day.

... A new fissure opened up just before the latest tremor in one of those neighborhoods, Leilani Estates, about 19km from the volcano, the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency said, making a total of four found so far.

Kilauea, one of the world's most active volcanoes and one of five on the island, has been in constant eruption for 35 years.

sryanbruen

There's been quite a number of significant eruptions so far this year already and it will be interesting to see if later in the year or next year that we will go into a severe cold spell of some sorts like 2010. Of course, we had the beast from the east as well as his son from 26 February to 2 March and 17-19 March respectively but that was down to a SSW event along with the combination of the MJO phase and weak La Nina, not volcanoes.

Pulling an 1816 - year without a summer - is highly unlikely here in 2018 given the constant high pressure to the east that keeps reforming itself and well, none of the eruptions we've had come close to the significance of Mount Tambora.

The research here looks like not being completed this year I think so it's still a heavy work in progress.

Some interesting posts shared by you guys.