Autumn 2017 - General Discussion

JCX BXC

Nothing strong enough to warrant storm Aileen I assume?

Meteorite58

JCX BXC wrote: »

Nothing strong enough to warrant storm Aileen I assume?

At the moment and subject to change to me it is showing gusts over 100 km/h off the
W / SW coast and gusts over 85 on coastal fringes so looking like a yellow warning at this stage ( possibly touching 100km/h on coastal stations ) .

Couple of days to fine tune.

Talks about the criteria for naming a storm below.

Mobhi1

From the end of next week both ECM and GFS seem to be indicating warm settled weather as high pressure moves over us from the Atlantic.

Meteorite58

Mobhi1 wrote: »

From the end of next week both ECM and GFS seem to be indicating warm settled weather as high pressure moves over us from the Atlantic.

Yea looks like a ridge building towards next week end, we will need it as looks like a very unsettled few days next week.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's a term used to describe a period of unusually dry and warm weather in October and November, usually after the first frost.

.

In the States, where the term originated. There is no criteria in Ireland as to what constitutes an 'Indian summer'. It is a loose term that is entirely subjective.

Gonzo

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yea looks like a ridge building towards next week end, we will need it as looks like a very unsettled few days next week.

I was hoping to sneak in one last bbq before winter so a warm, settled spell would be very welcome. I haven't had a chance to have a bbq since July.

Donegal Storm

Gonzo wrote: »

I was hoping to sneak in one last bbq before winter so a warm, settled spell would be very welcome. I haven't had a chance to have a bbq since July.

We're in a north westerly airflow right up to 192z on the Euro model, I think its safe enough to pack it away at this stage..

Meteorite58

Looking very windy Sun into Mon along coastal counties especially W , SW and S.

IMO top end of a yellow warning , possibly orange on coastal fringes. Possible storm force winds at sea I would think with maybe a few 100+ km/ h gusts in a couple of coastal stations in the W and SW.

Inland gusts of 75Km/ possible for a time Sun night / Mon morning.

Donegal Storm

Yeah definitely, especially this early in the season when trees are still in full leaf, it doesn't take much of a storm to take down a few trees, a lot of rain in the south recently as well which will loosen up the soil.

Meteorite58

The last run by the GFS and ARPEGE has the center of low a bit further N bringing stronger winds further up along the coast and will only strenghten if it moves another bit more N.

Galway / Clare now seem to be gone up a notch in projected wind speeds.

Donegal is now also in the strong windfield.

squarecircles

HEADLINE: Cool and unsettled throughout this weekend and into early next
week with a mainly westerly or northwesterly airflow dominating. This will bring
showers or longer spells of rain at times, as well as periods of strong winds.
Risk of gales with potentially strong gale or storm force gusts inducing large
waves in coastal regions of the west and southwest later on Sunday and early
on Monday.

met.ie

Elmer Blooker

The path of Jose could be (I said "could be") good news for us, with signs of pressure building next week all we need is for this (by then) ex tropical storm to track in the direction of Iceland or thereabouts pumping very warm air in our direction .... hopefully! You have to be optimistic after the past six weeks or so of cold and cloudy weather .... and a pattern change is long overdue!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone

Oscar Bravo

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
Some very strong west, veering northwest winds are expected to affect western and southwestern coastal counties later Sunday, overnight and into Monday morning with mean speeds of 55 to 65km/h gusts of 90 to 110km/h Strongest in the exposed hilly and coastal areas with very high seas along the coasts during this period also.

Issued:Friday 08 September 2017 15:00
Valid:Sunday 10 September 2017 18:00 to Monday 11 September 2017 09:00

squarecircles

no hanging about with issuing the warning,could be on the higher end of a yellow warning.

JCX BXC

Anyone think we will see Aileen this weekend?

squarecircles

the warning would have to be an orange alert before it would officially become Aileen,i dont think the winds will be severe enough,on a widespread scale at least.

Meteorite58

Well looks like there could be storm force winds at sea and also touching the headlands and some coastal fringes especially Galway and Mayo on this run . Some very strong winds along coastal counties and windy overnight across the country. This has been upgrading on the last few runs so we will see what the next few bring.

Meteorite58

The next couple of runs will tell a lot.

JCX BXC

Vertical rain now, pressure exactly 1000.0hpa, and sustained winds 2min of 25kts gusting to 31kts. Temp 12.9c

Lovely day here in West Clare.

I'm enjoying it in a way, actual weather the last few days for once, compared to the overcast boring mess we had for august.

JCX BXC

Scotland looks to be getting a slap, any chance UKMO would name it?

Doesn't look that bad here, although possibly some coastal flooding.

Meteorite58

High tides Sun evening around 20.30 Kerry / 20.49 Galway , rainfall highest on Atlantic coasts but fairly spread throughout the day and looks it's wettest Sun evening.

Meteorite58

Not too sure how accurate this German model is but good to compare with the others to see who handles it well.

ninebeanrows

Looks like a fair clip of wind Sunday evening. Yellow wind warning likely

Gonzo

my last few hours of Spanish heat then I'm back to the freezer.

JCX BXC

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like a fair clip of wind Sunday evening. Yellow wind warning likely

You've not been reading this thread have you

Yellow warning issued at 3pm yesterday.

Meteorite58

Again not too sure about the ICON model but it would be indicating Yellow warning for much of the country and perhaps touching Orange for Atlantic coastal fringes.


Gust Charts



Looking extremely windy on coasts and possibly well inland on coastal counties and high ground. I would think that this is going to bring down plenty of branches, maybe trees and possibly power lines as the trees have so much foliage this time of year.

MJohnston

These charts, they really test my 20 year old rusty French lessons as to which day of the week they're referring to

Meteorite58

Very lively jet this weekend.



Deep LP down to 974hPa

Meteorite58

MJohnston wrote: »

These charts, they really test my 20 year old rusty French lessons as to which day of the week they're referring to

Yea I have had to go to translations a lot of times for the technical stuff and now I am looking at the German sites !

Meteorite58

The AROME showing some very windy conditions tomorrow evening.