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Boards weather forecast contest for September 2017

  • 29-08-2017 12:53am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

    6. Bonus question: Once again, a test of the short-range forecasting skills, feel free to edit your post up to the deadline without penalty. Predict the maximum wind speed (gust, not sustained) in knots (approximately double km/hr) at any land station from 1st to 3rd. The event is currently shown for the 2nd on models but by spreading out the time span we can avoid last-minute timing changes. So, no location required, just the maximum gust speed.

    Enter without penalty by 0300h on Friday, 1st of September, or with 1 point deductions per 3h late (or portion) to end of 2nd, and further penalties of one point per hour late beyond that. For the bonus question, your score can only be 8 or less if you enter in the first 15 hours, 6 or less from then to 1200h 2nd and 4 or less beyond that (these deductions are in addition to the overall late penalties).

    Normal ______ 13.1 __ 26.0 __ 0.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ to be determined from charts at deadline


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 13.0 _ 22.5 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 115 __ 30 knots

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 664 ✭✭✭ Tazio


    Tazio______ 12.4 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 90 __ 95 ___ 24 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____ 13.1 _ 22.0 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 95 __ 40 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry___ 13.5_ 22.5 _ -0.3_ 124 _ 99 __ 41 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ____ 13.7 _ 25.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 44 knots


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_________13.6_ 21.5 _ -0.8_ 101 _ 94 __ 31 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 13.9 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 90 _ 120 ___ 39 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 13.5 _ 23.5 _ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 35 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.......13.5......23.5.......0.5........95......95.....35knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ______ 13.8 __ 25.2 __ 1.2 __ 115 __ 85 __45 Knots


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ______ 13.4 __ 24.2 __ 2.1 __ 88 __ 112 ___ 47kn


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ______ 13.2 __ 22.5 __ 2.2 __ 108 __ 95 ___ 42kn


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,407 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ______ 13.5 __ 23.5 __ 0.0 __ 110 __ 90 ___ 32kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 13.1° ___ 22.5 ___ -1.00 ___ 103 ___ 98 ___ 32knots.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,573 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 13.5 ___ 23.5 ___ 0.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ____ 45 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 12.9 ___ 24.0 ___ 0.2 ___ 92 ___ 124 ____ 37 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ______ 13.3 __ 23.7 __ -1.8__ 140 __ 100 ___ 43


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____ 13.3 _ 24.7 _ -2.1 _ 95 _ 102 ___ 46 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____ 13.0 _ 23.4 _ -1.7 _ 118 _ 103 ___ 39 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I mentioned that I would give "NormaL" a bonus forecast at the deadline, will just go with 40 knots, but not sure how to "normalize" this particular forecast, if anyone has an insight, let me know. I guess it's more or less how windy locations interact with that sort of gradient at that time of day or night. Oh, also late penalties will now begin to nudge their way into your later efforts. Looks like most of the regulars are in on time, will check and alert any stragglers with this weekend looming.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,770 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire 13.5. 22.0. 0.1. 89.0. 95. 35 knots.

    Rameire ______ 13.5 __ 22.0 __ 0.1 __ 089 __ 095 ___ 35 knots

    edited for correct spacing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ______ 13.7 __ 24.0 __ 0.8 __ 110 __ 97 ___ 46


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for September 2017


    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max wind gust 1-3

    Joe Public _________13.9 _ 26.3 __ 1.1 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 39
    Jpmarn ___________13.8 _ 25.2 __ 1.2 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 45
    M.T. Cranium ______13.7 _ 25.5 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 44
    john mac __ (-2) ___13.7 _ 24.0 __ 0.8 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 46
    200motels_________13.6 _ 21.5 _--0.8 _ 101 _ 094 ___ 31
    Dasa29 ___________13.5 _ 23.5 __ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 35
    MrSkinner _________13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.5 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 35
    mickger844posts ___ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32
    Rikand ___________ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 45
    Pauldry ___________13.5 _ 22.5 _--0.3 _ 124 _ 099 ___ 41
    Rameire __ (-2) ____13.5 _ 22.0 __ 0.1 _ 089 _ 095 ___ 35

    Con Sensus _______ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 103 _ 099 ___ 39

    DOCARCH _________13.4 _ 24.2 __ 2.1 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 47
    Lumi _____________13.3 _ 24.7 _--2.1 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 46
    waterways ________ 13.3 _ 23.7 _--1.8 _ 140 _ 100 ___ 43
    Sunflower3 ________13.2 _ 22.5 __ 2.2 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 42
    Kindred Spirit ______13.1 _ 22.5 _--1.0 _ 103 _ 098 ___ 32
    Bsal _____________ 13.1 _ 22.0 _--0.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 40

    Normal ___________13.1 _ 26.0 __ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40

    Tae laidir _________ 13.0 _ 23.4 _--1.7 _ 118 _ 103 ___ 39
    sryanbruen ________13.0 _ 22.5 __ 2.0 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30
    Dacogawa _________12.9 _ 24.0 __ 0.2 _ 092 _ 124 ___ 37
    Tazio _____________12.4 _ 24.0 __ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 24

    ________________________________________________

    Welcome Tazio to our little do.

    The general consensus seems to be for a rather warmish month of September with very close to average cloud and rainfall amounts. Nobody seems to be anticipating any outstanding warmth, the highest MAX forecast is 26.3, the lowest MIN is --2.1. About half of us expect a slight air frost and half do not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    For the purpose of the bonus question the leading wind gust is at 36 knots at Sherkin Island on the 1800 reports on met.ie. Please keep on eye over the next few hours for the latest reports to see if this gust gets beaten.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,770 ✭✭✭ rameire


    38 Sherkin


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Max of 23.4c in Oak Park today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    pauldry wrote: »
    Max of 23.4c in Oak Park today.

    That beats the overall max temperature for August at 23.2c.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Casement reported gust of 39 yesterday.
    No report from Oak Park?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    If 39 knots holds up as the max, then points awarded will be

    10 _ Joe Public, Tae laidir, Con Sensus
    9 __ Bsal, Pauldry, dacogawa, NormaL
    8 __ Sunflower3
    7 __ Dasa29, MrSkinner, Rameire, waterways
    6 __
    5 __ MTC, JPmarn, Rikand
    4 __ John mac, Lumi, Kindred Spirit, mickger844posts
    3 __
    2 __ 200 motels, DOCARCH
    1 __ sryanbruen, Tazio

    Ties overfilling 7 and then 4 points account for no scores of 6 or 3.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of September ...

    IMT 14.3 which was 0.1 above normal for the period.

    PRC was 142% of normal, with the south near 200%, some locations in the north a bit below average.

    SUN 67.5% of normal, all locations below 85%.

    The MAX and MIN of which I am aware, 23.4 and 3.2. Not expecting the MIN to last to the end of the month, MAX has a chance.


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