Boards weather forecast contest for September 2017

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

6. Bonus question: Once again, a test of the short-range forecasting skills, feel free to edit your post up to the deadline without penalty. Predict the maximum wind speed (gust, not sustained) in knots (approximately double km/hr) at any land station from 1st to 3rd. The event is currently shown for the 2nd on models but by spreading out the time span we can avoid last-minute timing changes. So, no location required, just the maximum gust speed.

Enter without penalty by 0300h on Friday, 1st of September, or with 1 point deductions per 3h late (or portion) to end of 2nd, and further penalties of one point per hour late beyond that. For the bonus question, your score can only be 8 or less if you enter in the first 15 hours, 6 or less from then to 1200h 2nd and 4 or less beyond that (these deductions are in addition to the overall late penalties).

Normal ______ 13.1 __ 26.0 __ 0.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ to be determined from charts at deadline

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 13.0 _ 22.5 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 115 __ 30 knots

Tazio

Tazio______ 12.4 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 90 __ 95 ___ 24 knots

Bsal

Bsal ____ 13.1 _ 22.0 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 95 __ 40 knots

pauldry

Pauldry___ 13.5_ 22.5 _ -0.3_ 124 _ 99 __ 41 knots

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____ 13.7 _ 25.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 44 knots

200motels

200motels_________13.6_ 21.5 _ -0.8_ 101 _ 94 __ 31 knots

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 13.9 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 90 _ 120 ___ 39 knots

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 13.5 _ 23.5 _ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 35 knots

mrskinner

Skinner.......13.5......23.5.......0.5........95......95.....35knots

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ______ 13.8 __ 25.2 __ 1.2 __ 115 __ 85 __45 Knots

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ______ 13.4 __ 24.2 __ 2.1 __ 88 __ 112 ___ 47kn

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ______ 13.2 __ 22.5 __ 2.2 __ 108 __ 95 ___ 42kn

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ______ 13.5 __ 23.5 __ 0.0 __ 110 __ 90 ___ 32kt

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 13.1° ___ 22.5 ___ -1.00 ___ 103 ___ 98 ___ 32knots.

Rikand

Rikand ____ 13.5 ___ 23.5 ___ 0.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ____ 45 knots

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 12.9 ___ 24.0 ___ 0.2 ___ 92 ___ 124 ____ 37 knots

waterways

waterways ______ 13.3 __ 23.7 __ -1.8__ 140 __ 100 ___ 43

Lumi

Lumi ____ 13.3 _ 24.7 _ -2.1 _ 95 _ 102 ___ 46 knots

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 13.0 _ 23.4 _ -1.7 _ 118 _ 103 ___ 39 knots

M.T. Cranium

I mentioned that I would give "NormaL" a bonus forecast at the deadline, will just go with 40 knots, but not sure how to "normalize" this particular forecast, if anyone has an insight, let me know. I guess it's more or less how windy locations interact with that sort of gradient at that time of day or night. Oh, also late penalties will now begin to nudge their way into your later efforts. Looks like most of the regulars are in on time, will check and alert any stragglers with this weekend looming.

rameire

Rameire 13.5. 22.0. 0.1. 89.0. 95. 35 knots.

Rameire ______ 13.5 __ 22.0 __ 0.1 __ 089 __ 095 ___ 35 knots

edited for correct spacing.

John mac

john mac ______ 13.7 __ 24.0 __ 0.8 __ 110 __ 97 ___ 46

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for September 2017


FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max wind gust 1-3

Joe Public _________13.9 _ 26.3 __ 1.1 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 39
Jpmarn ___________13.8 _ 25.2 __ 1.2 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 45
M.T. Cranium ______13.7 _ 25.5 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 44
john mac __ (-2) ___13.7 _ 24.0 __ 0.8 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 46
200motels_________13.6 _ 21.5 _--0.8 _ 101 _ 094 ___ 31
Dasa29 ___________13.5 _ 23.5 __ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 35
MrSkinner _________13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.5 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 35
mickger844posts ___ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32
Rikand ___________ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 45
Pauldry ___________13.5 _ 22.5 _--0.3 _ 124 _ 099 ___ 41
Rameire __ (-2) ____13.5 _ 22.0 __ 0.1 _ 089 _ 095 ___ 35

Con Sensus _______ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 103 _ 099 ___ 39

DOCARCH _________13.4 _ 24.2 __ 2.1 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 47
Lumi _____________13.3 _ 24.7 _--2.1 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 46
waterways ________ 13.3 _ 23.7 _--1.8 _ 140 _ 100 ___ 43
Sunflower3 ________13.2 _ 22.5 __ 2.2 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 42
Kindred Spirit ______13.1 _ 22.5 _--1.0 _ 103 _ 098 ___ 32
Bsal _____________ 13.1 _ 22.0 _--0.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 40

Normal ___________13.1 _ 26.0 __ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40

Tae laidir _________ 13.0 _ 23.4 _--1.7 _ 118 _ 103 ___ 39
sryanbruen ________13.0 _ 22.5 __ 2.0 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30
Dacogawa _________12.9 _ 24.0 __ 0.2 _ 092 _ 124 ___ 37
Tazio _____________12.4 _ 24.0 __ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 24

________________________________________________

Welcome Tazio to our little do.

The general consensus seems to be for a rather warmish month of September with very close to average cloud and rainfall amounts. Nobody seems to be anticipating any outstanding warmth, the highest MAX forecast is 26.3, the lowest MIN is --2.1. About half of us expect a slight air frost and half do not.

Jpmarn

For the purpose of the bonus question the leading wind gust is at 36 knots at Sherkin Island on the 1800 reports on met.ie. Please keep on eye over the next few hours for the latest reports to see if this gust gets beaten.

rameire

38 Sherkin

pauldry

Max of 23.4c in Oak Park today.

Jpmarn

pauldry wrote: »

Max of 23.4c in Oak Park today.

That beats the overall max temperature for August at 23.2c.

Tae laidir

Casement reported gust of 39 yesterday.
No report from Oak Park?

M.T. Cranium

If 39 knots holds up as the max, then points awarded will be

10 _ Joe Public, Tae laidir, Con Sensus
9 __ Bsal, Pauldry, dacogawa, NormaL
8 __ Sunflower3
7 __ Dasa29, MrSkinner, Rameire, waterways
6 __
5 __ MTC, JPmarn, Rikand
4 __ John mac, Lumi, Kindred Spirit, mickger844posts
3 __
2 __ 200 motels, DOCARCH
1 __ sryanbruen, Tazio

Ties overfilling 7 and then 4 points account for no scores of 6 or 3.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week of September ...

IMT 14.3 which was 0.1 above normal for the period.

PRC was 142% of normal, with the south near 200%, some locations in the north a bit below average.

SUN 67.5% of normal, all locations below 85%.

The MAX and MIN of which I am aware, 23.4 and 3.2. Not expecting the MIN to last to the end of the month, MAX has a chance.

M.T. Cranium

After the second week ...

IMT now at 13.3, the week rather cool at 12.3 which is 1.4 below average.

PRC has edged upwards to 149% with the second week quite wet, an average of 156% of normal. The month is now guaranteed to finish at least on the average if the rest of the month manages just 60% of normal.

SUN at least was generous at 124.5% for the week which brings the average so far up to 96%, and we could be slightly above average by about Monday.

MAX and MIN remain the same as last report. MIN seems likely to get some testing these next few nights.

DOCARCH

1c reported at Mount Dillon at 7am this morning.

DOCARCH

Low was 1.1c yesterday (at Mount Dillon).

pauldry

See now its been amended to 1.0c

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT at 12.6 with this past week only 11.2, 1.8 deg below normal. Expect this to recover to near 13.0 during the next few days. My guess is that it might finish around 13.2 (would need an average of 14.6 today to 30th to get there).

PRC edged downwards to 134% of normal with this past week at 103% (for a change the far north was relatively dry). I suspect that we are already at 140% after some heavy downpours in some parts this morning. This average does not look to be heading either up or down too much for the rest of the month.

SUN has made it past normal now (100.6%) with this past week at 109.7%. I could see this ending up a bit lower possibly but not below 95%.

MAX 23.4 and MIN 1.0 so far.

If my estimates are right and MAX, MIN don't change, highest score I can see is probably Dasa29 with about 82. The PRC could see the first ever case of reduced minimum progression. The rule is as follows: when one forecaster has a natural score of (in this case) 14 or 15, and other scores are eligible for a boost from minimum progression, then those increases will be reduced by 50%. ... This month we have a forecast of 140% from waterways and the next highest is 124%. The rule will kick in, if PRC finishes between 136 and 144 per cent. Waterways is guaranteed 14 points (or 15) for any finish above 132% although minimum progression won't add much to most scores if PRC finishes that low. I would say that Pauldry can do no worse than 11 points at this rate and can get 13 to 15 with a dry finish (we are now, counting my estimate for today, locked into a PRC of at least 100%.

M.T. Cranium

After five weeks ...

IMT on 12.7, the past week also 12.7 which is now 0.3 deg above normal. Current guess is that it reaches 12.8 (it is actually 12.66 today, predictions would suggest 14 or so for today and tomorrow, so not much rise potential left).

PRC has moved up again, now at 142.5% with this past week at 169%. Should finish around 145% (see last report for implications).

SUN has dipped slightly to 97% of normal with this past week managing 87% in between the frontal events. I think this could end up very close to 100% as today will more than cancel out a rather cloudy last day of the month.

MAX still 23.4 and MIN 1.0; no change likely there.

As the official numbers will be available on the 3rd, I will wait for them but I will post the final IMT and PRC on Sunday and estimate the high scores among us.

M.T. Cranium

Final values:

IMT 12.6

MAX 23.4 (to be confirmed)

MIN 1.0 (to be confirmed)

PRC 142%

SUN 100% (to be confirmed)

BONUS 39 knots

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Provisional scoring for September 2017

will be either confirmed or adjusted on 3rd

FORECASTER _____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus___ TOTAL


Dasa29 ___________16 _ 19 _ 20 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 80
Tae laidir _________ 21 _ 20 _ 01 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 72

Con Sensus _______ 16 _ 19 _ 10 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 10 _____ 69

waterways ________ 18 _ 17 _ 01 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 68
MrSkinner _________16 _ 19 _ 15 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 67
mickger844posts ___ 16 _ 19 _ 10 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 04 _____ 65
Pauldry ___________16 _ 11 _ 07 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 65
john mac __ (-2) ___14 _ 14 _ 18 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 _67-2=65
Dacogawa ________ 22 _ 14 _ 12 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 09 _____ 63
Sunflower3 ________19 _ 11 _ 08 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 61

sryanbruen ________21 _ 11 _ 10 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 01 _____ 58
Rikand ___________ 16 _ 19 _ 10 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 56
Jpmarn ___________13 _ 02 _ 18 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 55
Bsal _____________ 20 _ 06 _ 06 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 55
Kindred Spirit ______20 _ 11 _ 02 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 04 _____ 51

Normal ___________20 _ 00 _ 10 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 51

DOCARCH _________17 _ 12 _ 09 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 02 _____ 48
Rameire __ (-2) ____16 _ 06 _ 11 _ 00 _ 09 ___ 07 _49-2=47
Joe Public _________12 _ 00 _ 19 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 47
Tazio ____________ 23 _ 14 _ 00 _ 00 _ 09 ___ 01 _____ 47
Lumi _____________18 _ 07 _ 00 _ 01 _ 10 ___ 04 _____ 40
200motels_________15 _ 01 _ 04 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 02 _____ 34
M.T. Cranium ______14 _ 00 _ 02 _ 02 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 32

________________________________________________

MIN scores of 5 or lower were slightly adjusted upwards as there were quite a few zero scores and some of those were given 2 or 1 points.

PRC scores were all subject to the modified minimum progression as waterways had a very close forecast, the modified rule awards only half the points otherwise added to raw scores to reward the one forecast that anticipates an outlier. So well done to waterways on that.

Congrats to Dasa29 and Tae laidir for managing to beat Con Sensus this month.



(Actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max wind gust 1-3

Joe Public _________13.9 _ 26.3 __ 1.1 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 39
Jpmarn ___________13.8 _ 25.2 __ 1.2 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 45
M.T. Cranium ______13.7 _ 25.5 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 44
john mac __ (-2) ___13.7 _ 24.0 __ 0.8 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 46
200motels_________13.6 _ 21.5 _--0.8 _ 101 _ 094 ___ 31
Dasa29 ___________13.5 _ 23.5 __ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 35
MrSkinner _________13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.5 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 35
mickger844posts ___ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32
Rikand ___________ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 45
Pauldry ___________13.5 _ 22.5 _--0.3 _ 124 _ 099 ___ 41
Rameire __ (-2) ____13.5 _ 22.0 __ 0.1 _ 089 _ 095 ___ 35

Con Sensus _______ 13.5 _ 23.5 __ 0.0 _ 103 _ 099 ___ 39

DOCARCH _________13.4 _ 24.2 __ 2.1 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 47
Lumi _____________13.3 _ 24.7 _--2.1 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 46
waterways ________ 13.3 _ 23.7 _--1.8 _ 140 _ 100 ___ 43
Sunflower3 ________13.2 _ 22.5 __ 2.2 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 42
Kindred Spirit ______13.1 _ 22.5 _--1.0 _ 103 _ 098 ___ 32
Bsal _____________ 13.1 _ 22.0 _--0.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 40

Normal ___________13.1 _ 26.0 __ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40

Tae laidir _________ 13.0 _ 23.4 _--1.7 _ 118 _ 103 ___ 39
sryanbruen ________13.0 _ 22.5 __ 2.0 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30
Dacogawa _________12.9 _ 24.0 __ 0.2 _ 092 _ 124 ___ 37
Tazio _____________12.4 _ 24.0 __ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 24

________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

All data confirmed after checking the Monthly Summary. The sunshine did indeed come in right on 100% within the 2% margin of error from the stats available. The September scoring table is therefore the provisional table seen in the previous post. I intend to check the numbers so if I detect any errors I will list them here and place the correct numbers in the table below, which updates the annual scoring.


Annual scoring January to September 2017

This month as promised the scoring table is now based on best 7 of 9 scores which were in the random order created by total scores up until last month. Those total scores have shifted over to the last column with their ranks but the table is now determined by the scores in the second column, best 7 of 9 (en route to the final best 10 of 12 at the end of the year). There is no longer any indicator of your rank in the previous month, you'll have to check back to find that.


rank _ best 7 _ FORECASTER _ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP __ TOTAL

01 _ 485 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 ___ 580 (3)
02 _ 482 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 ___ 591 (2)
t03_ 476 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 ___ 592 (1)
t03_ 476 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 582 (4)

t03 _476 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 ___ 596 (1)

05 _ 473 __ Dacogawa ______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 ___ 519 (12)

06 _ 471 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 ___ 575 (5)
07 _ 468 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 ___ 559 (7)
08 _ 463 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 ___ 463 (20)
09 _ 457 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 570 (6)
10 _ 450 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 ___ 558 (8)

11 _ 442 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 ___ 542 (9)
12 _ 441 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 ___ 502 (16)
13 _ 439 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 ___ 521 (11)
14 _ 438 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 ___ 507 (15)

15 _ 436 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 ___ 520 (12)

15 _ 432 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 ___ 518 (13)
16 _ 430 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 ___ 524 (10)
17 _ 426 __ sunflower3 _____46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 ___ 514 (14)
18 _ 418 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 ___ 483 (19)
19 _ 415 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 ___ 496 (17)
20 _ 412 __ M.T. Cranium ___53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 ___ 488 (18)

21 _ 407_(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 ___ 407

xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- ___ 164
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- ____74
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 ____47


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Congrats to DOCARCH, mickger844posts, pauldry and Tae laidir for managing to stay ahead of Con Sensus in the best 7 of 9 portion, and within sight in the total score where Con has us all beaten so far.