Boards weather forecast contest for September 2017

I mentioned that I would give "NormaL" a bonus forecast at the deadline, will just go with 40 knots, but not sure how to "normalize" this particular forecast, if anyone has an insight, let me know. I guess it's more or less how windy locations interact with that sort of gradient at that time of day or night. Oh, also late penalties will now begin to nudge their way into your later efforts. Looks like most of the regulars are in on time, will check and alert any stragglers with this weekend looming.

After the first week of September ...

IMT 14.3 which was 0.1 above normal for the period.

PRC was 142% of normal, with the south near 200%, some locations in the north a bit below average.

SUN 67.5% of normal, all locations below 85%.

The MAX and MIN of which I am aware, 23.4 and 3.2. Not expecting the MIN to last to the end of the month, MAX has a chance.

After five weeks ...

IMT on 12.7, the past week also 12.7 which is now 0.3 deg above normal. Current guess is that it reaches 12.8 (it is actually 12.66 today, predictions would suggest 14 or so for today and tomorrow, so not much rise potential left).

PRC has moved up again, now at 142.5% with this past week at 169%. Should finish around 145% (see last report for implications).

SUN has dipped slightly to 97% of normal with this past week managing 87% in between the frontal events. I think this could end up very close to 100% as today will more than cancel out a rather cloudy last day of the month.

MAX still 23.4 and MIN 1.0; no change likely there.

As the official numbers will be available on the 3rd, I will wait for them but I will post the final IMT and PRC on Sunday and estimate the high scores among us.

All data confirmed after checking the Monthly Summary. The sunshine did indeed come in right on 100% within the 2% margin of error from the stats available. The September scoring table is therefore the provisional table seen in the previous post. I intend to check the numbers so if I detect any errors I will list them here and place the correct numbers in the table below, which updates the annual scoring.


Annual scoring January to September 2017

This month as promised the scoring table is now based on best 7 of 9 scores which were in the random order created by total scores up until last month. Those total scores have shifted over to the last column with their ranks but the table is now determined by the scores in the second column, best 7 of 9 (en route to the final best 10 of 12 at the end of the year). There is no longer any indicator of your rank in the previous month, you'll have to check back to find that.


rank _ best 7 _ FORECASTER _ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP __ TOTAL

01 _ 485 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 ___ 580 (3)
02 _ 482 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 ___ 591 (2)
t03_ 476 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 ___ 592 (1)
t03_ 476 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 582 (4)

t03 _476 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 ___ 596 (1)

05 _ 473 __ Dacogawa ______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 ___ 519 (12)

06 _ 471 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 ___ 575 (5)
07 _ 468 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 ___ 559 (7)
08 _ 463 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 ___ 463 (20)
09 _ 457 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 570 (6)
10 _ 450 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 ___ 558 (8)

11 _ 442 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 ___ 542 (9)
12 _ 441 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 ___ 502 (16)
13 _ 439 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 ___ 521 (11)
14 _ 438 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 ___ 507 (15)

15 _ 436 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 ___ 520 (12)

15 _ 432 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 ___ 518 (13)
16 _ 430 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 ___ 524 (10)
17 _ 426 __ sunflower3 _____46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 ___ 514 (14)
18 _ 418 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 ___ 483 (19)
19 _ 415 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 ___ 496 (17)
20 _ 412 __ M.T. Cranium ___53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 ___ 488 (18)

21 _ 407_(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 ___ 407

xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- ___ 164
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- ____74
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 ____47


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Congrats to DOCARCH, mickger844posts, pauldry and Tae laidir for managing to stay ahead of Con Sensus in the best 7 of 9 portion, and within sight in the total score where Con has us all beaten so far.