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Why would anyone give away good tips.
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Do you keep a tracker of your results/ROI? Any places/books that give a good guide to how to develop your own strategy?
Really like this style of gambling, I'm following a few services that do similar. Ive only started gambling about 18 months ago so trying to learn and hopefully i can do it myself someday. I achieved a 10% ROI last year and learned a lot from the few i followed, also learned from those i dont follow anymore! Im slowly trying to find the reliable ones to add to my portfolio but would love to learn to do it alone.
Its not a style for most, most gamblers get too caught up in the emotion of it all. That has been my biggest learning so far!
A 10% return is very good in this game but ......... is it 10% after 100 samples at odds of 51.0 where you got lucky with one or two, or is it 10% after 5,000 bets with average odds of 2.0. ? The latter would be the one that would catch my eye
I track all my selections in my own DB, each horse is recorded maybe 10 times per day so I know if I got the horse on the way down or when he was on way out. My analysis sowtware which I wrote myself is what tells me if my edge is decreasing or not ( Every edge will eventually be eroded as markets eventually catch on ) So you need to know if/when you need to evolve. I have data mow for close to 100,000 horses. To give you a rough estimate of what sort of sample size you need before deciding any system works or doesnt, follow this simple formula. (A simplified form of a far more complex statistical formula ) Lets say you are dealing with horses which have average odds in around 10.0, And you want a certain level of confidence that you are within +/- Certain Percentage of the actual systems output. Number of samples required = 100/(Req Confidence ) x 100/Tolerance X Avg odds. In short, as the avg odds increases, OR the required Confidence in results increases OR Tolerance required increases then the num of samples required increases exponentially. So with avg odds of 10.0, you want to be 95% certain you are within +/-5% of ideal output then this requires approx 1000 samples, if you want to be 99% certain you are within +/- 2% of ideal system output then you require over 10,000 samples. So my only tip to you would be, dont put your cash on the table till you have paper traded / verified at least 1000 sample predictions from any system. If that seems a lot of hassle then gambling is not for you. Without that sort of input from you then you may very well get caught up following a system that DOESNT work with real cash, while on the other hand throwing a working system on the scrap heap cause it didnt give you immediate profits. If you cant turn £10 into £20 using 10p bets then give this gambling mullarky a miss 0 -
Thanks for that, just double checked, i lied, slightly under 10%, got 8.8% over 5460 bets. This included a lot of trial and error with tipsters who i know now to be good talkers but dont have a notion about value. As one of the guys i follow says ROI is nothing without volume. I started this journey at tiny stakes and am still tiny compared to majority but ive just increased as i've increased bankroll.
Thanks for the overview, one of the guys i follow elludes to lots of calculations and it started me thinking about trying to learn a bit about it myself. At the end of the day im going to eventually run out of accounts or get sick of sourcing new accounts so if i want to stay in it longer term for some money on the side then ill need to start working out my own rather than jumping on a bet that about 200-300 others are also taking within 3 seconds of one another! Working well so far, achieved what i wanted last year (new bike
) but i dont expect ill last much longer the way im doing it, have started trying to use the exchange more for this reason and thanfully some i follow give great advise there about trading. 0 -
If you can find value on the exchange then that is where I would concentrate my efforts. Took me 3 years of data gathering before I found a consistent system that works on exchange, and that only yields between 3% and 4%, but I consider that very good return considering how sharp prices are on exchange. Of course the premium charge is a pain in the ass but it only a problem once you up the ante Margin is far better with the bookies but having to get friends to help get the ££ staked has its challenges as they are constantly getting banned and so have to dig out extended family friends.
But bet tracking is key. As much info as you can about every bet. Even time before race I have found to be useful info. And of course your system must yield a profit to level stakes. I consider that the gold standard by which any gambler measures themselves. £100 on a winning 51.0 shot propping up a pile of bad value low odds bets that only had £5 on them is going to mask a dud system.0 -
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Most of the tips i follow are card bets on the footie, few greyhounds and a few horses thrown in so not too easy to assess if it drops as they are often bet builders. The singles always drop from what I take, often i have big positive cashouts available soon after. The tipsters also advise minimum odds and adjusted stakes based on lower lines if initial value missed. I dont take lines that drop. With anything from 5-30 a day theres plenty of value to take and they emphasoes that they are not taking the bet puely on chance but more on value.
Yeah i took what i could from yours today and did well a nice winner there with Galtee Mountain! I got all except for 1 which i wouldnt get near so i left it. Some i managed to get higher lines, got nearly all on the exchange. I was hunting for the tips as soon as you posted so that will have helped
One tipster i had followed had an interesting method of checking for discepenceies between Pinnacle and B365 on euro basketball. B365 are supposedly slow to adjust and with massive money pouring in at Pinnacle he was taking the better lines at B365. Did well for me but i missed the opportunity to get into the closed group and am on his waiting list. His always beat SP, by a massive amount! I remember some 3u bets offering as much as 1U profit CO before throw-in.
Do you ever lay the big movers on the exchange to cover, or even guarantee profit? Id started a bit of that with some of the longer shots being offered by those i follow on the dogs and horses as i see the majrity of their picks do crash a lot and beat the SP0 -
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