May 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

DOCARCH

22.5c (to be precise) in Newport yesterday.

pauldry

MT Dillon -0.3c on the same day (extremes)

Rikand

When thinking whether to pick E17 or N17 I should have went with the saw doctors.

Those 50/50 decisions in life...

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 10.9 C which is 0.6 above normal for the period. Ballyhaise (which is not in the calculation) was warmer than Shannon which is rather unusual, Saturday's cloud in the south largely accounted for that.

PRC running on empty, 0.5% when you add it up.

SUN managed 167% despite Valentia running below average, Belmullet as well as two other northern locations that we don't use above 200%.

As mentioned above, MAX 22.5 and MIN --0.3.

pauldry

22c in Newport again today.

Furnace is a mini furnace.

Yesterday when it was 22.5c in Newport it was 21c in Claremorris but it was 14c in Enniscrone & Belmullet

A big difference between coastal parts of the West and Northwest and only a few miles inland (in the case of Newport)

No wonder Met Eireann need so many stations in the West

DOCARCH

-1c reported this morning at Dublin AP....so, that should come in somewhere between -0.5c and -1.5c.

pauldry

-1.5c it was

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

-1.5c it was

Sure? ME now says -0.5.

pauldry

It does but during the early hours it reached -1.5c

ME only till midnight

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 10.9(4) with the second week at 11.0 C, 0.1 above average. In general the week featured warm days and cool nights so the daytime readings were probably more like 2-3 deg above average.

PRC was boosted to 53% of normal with the week being 106% on average. Today's heavy rainfall not included (just the portion falling up to midnight), so figure on the month now being at 85% of normal through 15 days. If this third week produces 194% of normal values on average, the rainfall would reach normal for the first three weeks. Today's rain (likely to be 20 mm on average at the eleven locations used) is enough to guarantee 120% for the week.

SUN totals were not all available from yesterday in the weekly ag report (Belmullet and Valentia were missing), which meant estimating those two from six known daily amounts and an estimate for the 14th. On that basis, I am sure the average for the week is above 130% and below 152% so going with 141% that leaves the month at 154% of normal plus or minus 5.

MAX and MIN remain 22.5 and --1.5.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 11.1 C with this past week at 11.4, bang on normal for the week. This looks likely to rise gradually to near 12.0 by the end of the month.

PRC has reached 92% of normal with this past week generally wet (the 15th as discussed doing most of the work) at 170% of normal. Current charts suggest this may not rise any further and could fall slightly, expect end of month outcomes around 80 to 85 per cent perhaps.

SUN (earlier estimates checked and confirmed now) managed a third above normal week (105.5%) and this places the average at 138% (plus or minus 2 for uncertainty) of normal. That likely won't fall off much with a few quite sunny days in the forecast period, the lowest I can see this ending up would be 120% and more likely closer to 130%. Even with no sunshine it has to finish at 90% now, which means basically if every day has 2 hours of sunshine on average across the grid, that gets the guaranteed finish above 100%. A normal run gets us to a 120% finish.

The MAX and MIN remain 22.5 and --1.5, could see that MAX pushing 24 or 25 in the coming week, MIN will be challenged to drop any lower but there could still be another frost somewhere.

pauldry

Max could hit 26c even

M.T. Cranium

Will make a daily report on how we're doing ...

22nd May

IMT up about 0.1 or 0.2 to 11.3 rounded up, average near 14 for the day.

PRC down about 1% to 91%, average at the eleven locations used was less than 2 mm.

SUN holding near 137% now, average 5.7 hrs at the six locations a bit below normal

M.T. Cranium

After 23rd ...

IMT at 11.4 as the 23rd was quite a warm day generally (near 15 C).

PRC down again to 90% as the day was almost dry.

SUN has slipped another notch or two, to 135% with an average of 3.3 hours, normal is closer to 6 hours.

no new MAX on 23rd but we will have an upgrade from today's readings.

M.T. Cranium

after 24th ...

IMT now up to 11.6, the day averaged a toasty 17 C.

PRC now down to 88%, the day was dry.

SUN has slipped to 134% as it was rather cloudy (3 hrs on average).

A new Max of 23.2 at Oak Park but we know that has been eclipsed already today (at least 25 C).

pauldry

It may be 25.6c in Finner that wins out.

Only Markree or Pheonix Park maybe has a chance

It reached 25.4c in Sligo town

I cant see 26c being reached tomorrow as there is a lot of instability now . Maybe 24c

Rikand

Newport Furnace still reporting temps at 20

Tae laidir

My ducks are lining up nicely.
Joe Public in Record Territory.

DOCARCH

Highest temp was 25.9c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

pauldry

Ah shucks.

Was doing very well for this month first 20 odd days... now a car crash due to heat.

Still I can put it as (another) bad month

Cmon June!! This time I can get it right

Joe Public

Tae laidir wrote: »

My ducks are lining up nicely.
Joe Public in Record Territory.

I'm due a high score, nearly 7 years since my last decent one

Maybe I could start selling forecasts on the strength of it :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

After the 25th ...

IMT at 11.86 with another daily average close to 17 C.

PRC estimated to be down around 85% now with another dry day.

SUN has recovered to 137% as the 25th averaged 9 hours of sunshine.

The max at Mt Dillon as noted was boosted to 25.7 C according to the "yesterday's weather" page.

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The max at Mt Dillon as noted was boosted to 25.7 C according to the "yesterday's weather" page.

Ohhh...that changed/was edited (on Met.ie) from earlier.

sryanbruen

RIP my points for May.

Rikand

Dammit, if I had picked 25 for max temp I'd be home and hosed

sryanbruen

26.2c at Mt. Dillon yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the 26th ...

IMT now at 12.1 C with the five stations as high as 19 C.

As noted above, a new MAX of 26.2 C.

PRC holding steady around 84% as only small amounts of rain fell in the grid of eleven stations. (that will change somewhat after today's diownpours).

SUN also steady near 136%, while Dublin had a full day of sun, the grid in general averaged a bit less than 6 hours.

(IMT likely to reach about 12.3 or 12.4 eventually, it's not going to rise as fast with averages closer to 14; PRC could get back to 90% and SUN won't fall below 130%).

pauldry

Casement working up a good total today

Nearly 30mm in past 4 hours

M.T. Cranium

After the 27th ...

IMT rose slightly to 12.2 C, rounded up so not a very large rise, the daily IMT was about 13 C.

PRC now sits just under 100% of the average for first 27 days (98%) and over 90% is guaranteed now, due to a heavy downpour in the east, although some western stations only added small amounts. Some further rain expected tonight may place the guaranteed outcome after four weeks near 95% (next update is going to be the usual weekly update).

SUN did not do as badly as you might suspect thanks to a good amount at Valentia but it was an average of about 4.5 hours and a drop therefore to 134%.

Tae laidir

My ducks have been washed away.