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May 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 27-04-2017 8:10am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question (10 points), predict the wind direction and speed in knots at Belmullet on Sunday, 7th of May, at noon. Wind direction should be one of the eight wind directions reported on the met.ie hourly observations and speed in knots is about 15% greater than m.p.h. or almost double km/hr. An example of the format (not a hint as to the right answer) is SW 20. In case you're not clear on the eight wind directions to use, they are S, SW, W, NW, N, NE, E and SE. If you give a more precise value I will rotate it clockwise until it hits one of these, or go to the nearest one at my discretion. You can also choose calm if you expect zero wind speed. Gust speeds will not count for anything in this bonus question, it's the sustained wind speed we will score.


    Enter by the deadline of 0300h Monday 1st of May, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 13 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

    Good luck!

    My entry (subject to edit)

    M.T. Cranium ____ 11.8 __ 24.5 __ -1.0 __ 080 __ 120 ___ E 14


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 10.7 _ 20.0_ -1.0 _ 120_ 90_ E 25

    Note: Rainfall edited.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____11.5 __ 23.5__ -0.8 __ 77__ 108__ NE 20kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 ____ 11.0 __ 19.5 __ 1.0 __ 095 __ 100 ___ SE 10


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,020 ✭✭✭✭ Water John


    Water John_____ 10.9, 19, 2.8, 91, 90, SW 12


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ____ 11.5 __ 22.5 __ 1.4 __ 105 __ 90 ___ NE 10


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels _______11.3 _ 22.0_ 1.9 _ 129_ 91_ E 15


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 12.3 __ 24.9 __ -1.9 __ 089 __ 129 ___ NE 9


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry ____ 11.3 __ 21.9 __ -1.0__ 092 __ 109 ___ S 15


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 11.3 __ 22.3 __ -0.9 __ 075 __ 110 ___ SE 11


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____ 11.5 __ 23.1 __ -1.5 __ 080 __ 100 ___ SW 7


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  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 11.9° ___22.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 130 ___ 90 ___ NE 13 knots.


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 11.3 ___ 25.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 100 ___ 90 ___ NW 10 knots


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____ 11.7 __ 25.5 __ 0.5 __ 082 __ 115 ___ SE 12


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ____ 11.5 __ 23.5 __ 1.0 __ 085 __ 95 ___ E 18


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 11.7 __ 25.4 __ -0.9__ 082 __ 102 ___ NE 12kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 12.0____ 23.0____ -1.0_____ 90,____ 120_____ E17


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 11.5 __ 22.5 __ 0.5 __ 075 __ 130 ___ NE 10


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ____ 11.3 __ 23.5 __ -0.8 __ 101 __ 110 ___ SE 03


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner..........11.9.......24.0........-1.0........75.......100........E16


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I can't edit the old post so this is my revised forecast, just before the deadline of 0300h, will get a table together when it seems like everyone has posted.

    M.T. Cranium _________ 10.5 __ 21.5 __ -1.4 __ 115 __ 090 ___ NE 19


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire______10.8_22.4_-1.0_091_115__NE10


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for May 2017

    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Winds Bel 7th noon


    Joe Public __________ 12.3 _ 24.9 _--1.9 _ 089 _ 129 ___NE 9
    Rikand _____________12.0 _ 23.0 _--1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ E 17
    MrSkinner __________ 11.9 _ 24.0 _--1.0 _ 075 _ 100 ___ E16
    Kindred Spirit _______ 11.9 _ 22.0 __ 0.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___NE 13
    Tae laidir ___________11.7 _ 25.5 __ 0.5 _ 082 _ 115 ___SE 12
    Dacogawa __________11.7 _ 25.4 _--0.9 _ 082 _ 102 ___NE 12
    mickger844posts _____11.5 _ 23.5 __ 1.0 _ 085 _ 095 ___ E 18
    Bsal _______________11.5 _ 23.5 _--0.8 _ 077 _ 108 ___NE 20
    Lumi ______________ 11.5 _ 23.1 _--1.5 _ 080 _ 100 ___SW 7
    Sunflower3 _________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __ 1.4 _ 105 _ 090 ___NE 10
    Jpmarn ____________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __ 0.5 _ 075 _ 130 ___NE 10

    Con Sensus _________ 11.5 _ 22.5 _--0.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ E 12

    waterways __________11.3 _ 25.0 _--3.0 _ 100 _ 090 ___NW 10
    john mac ___________ 11.3 _ 23.5 _--0.8 _ 101 _ 110 ___SE 3
    DOCARCH __________ 11.3 _ 22.3 _--0.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___SE 11
    200motels __________ 11.3 _ 22.0 __ 1.9 _ 129 _ 091 ___ E 15
    Pauldry _____________11.3 _ 21.9 _--1.0 _ 092 _ 109 ___ S 15

    NormaL ____________ 11.1 _ 24.0 _ --0.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___SW 14

    dasa29 _____________11.0 _ 19.5 __ 1.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___SE 10
    Water John __________10.9 _ 19.0 __ 2.8 _ 091 _ 090 ___SW 12
    Rameire ____ (-2) ____10.8 _ 22.4 _--1.0 _ 091 _ 115 ___NE 10
    sryanbruen __________10.7 _ 20.0 _--1.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ E 25
    M.T. Cranium ________10.5 _ 21.5 _--1.4 _ 115 _ 090 ___NE 19

    ___________________________________________________________

    21 forecasts so that Con Sensus is the 11th ranked forecast, except for wind direction where I went with the most frequently mentioned.

    Good luck everyone!

    It would seem that the group consensus is for a rather warm and somewhat dry month with average sunshine, nobody calling for a large surplus of sunshine anyway, but a few suspect it may turn out cool.


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Newport Furnace 20.7 yesterday for openers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Low of 0.4 on first at Markree in case we never see a frost.


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Belmullet Countdown:

    10.00 N 11
    11.00 NE 12
    12:00 N 10


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    typical . windiest place in the country :D not a breadth of a breeze earlier .


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Belmullet Countdown:

    10.00 N 11
    11.00 NE 12
    12:00 N 10

    Well RIP :pac:, no bonus points for me.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yep nor me n it was South in Newport. Bah!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The actual direction was NNE on the 16-pt scale, but in any case as nobody predicted N (or W), I will equate the one NW guess with the several NE guesses as being closest.

    The bonus should have top scores of 10 so what I plan to do is give raw scores of 4 for NE or NW, 3 for E, 2 for SE or SW, 1 for S, then scores out of five for wind speed, as there were no totally correct answers, no 2 pt superbonus but a one point superbonus to three who had NE 10 as their guess.

    Total bonus points then will be something like this (raw scores are converted either up or down to preserve equal numbers at each interval):

    10 _ Rameire, JPmarn, sunflower3, waterways
    9 _ Joe Public, Dacogawa, Dasa29
    8 _ Kindred Spirit, Con Sensus
    7 _ DOCARCH, Tae laidir
    6 _ Water John, 200 motels
    5 _ MrSkinner, Rikand
    4 _ M.T. Cranium, Bsal, Lumi, NormaL
    3 _ John mac, Pauldry
    2 _ mickger844posts sryanbruen

    (edit, I had a second look, this seems like the fairest scoring for the range of guesses).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    22c max in Newport today. How long will that stand?


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