May 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question (10 points), predict the wind direction and speed in knots at Belmullet on Sunday, 7th of May, at noon. Wind direction should be one of the eight wind directions reported on the met.ie hourly observations and speed in knots is about 15% greater than m.p.h. or almost double km/hr. An example of the format (not a hint as to the right answer) is SW 20. In case you're not clear on the eight wind directions to use, they are S, SW, W, NW, N, NE, E and SE. If you give a more precise value I will rotate it clockwise until it hits one of these, or go to the nearest one at my discretion. You can also choose calm if you expect zero wind speed. Gust speeds will not count for anything in this bonus question, it's the sustained wind speed we will score.


Enter by the deadline of 0300h Monday 1st of May, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 13 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

Good luck!

My entry (subject to edit)

M.T. Cranium ____ 11.8 __ 24.5 __ -1.0 __ 080 __ 120 ___ E 14

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 10.7 _ 20.0_ -1.0 _ 120_ 90_ E 25

Note: Rainfall edited.

Bsal

Bsal ____11.5 __ 23.5__ -0.8 __ 77__ 108__ NE 20kt

dasa29

dasa29 ____ 11.0 __ 19.5 __ 1.0 __ 095 __ 100 ___ SE 10

Water John

Water John_____ 10.9, 19, 2.8, 91, 90, SW 12

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ____ 11.5 __ 22.5 __ 1.4 __ 105 __ 90 ___ NE 10

200motels

200motels _______11.3 _ 22.0_ 1.9 _ 129_ 91_ E 15

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 12.3 __ 24.9 __ -1.9 __ 089 __ 129 ___ NE 9

pauldry

Pauldry ____ 11.3 __ 21.9 __ -1.0__ 092 __ 109 ___ S 15

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 11.3 __ 22.3 __ -0.9 __ 075 __ 110 ___ SE 11

Lumi

Lumi ____ 11.5 __ 23.1 __ -1.5 __ 080 __ 100 ___ SW 7

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 11.9° ___22.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 130 ___ 90 ___ NE 13 knots.

waterways

waterways ___ 11.3 ___ 25.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 100 ___ 90 ___ NW 10 knots

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 11.7 __ 25.5 __ 0.5 __ 082 __ 115 ___ SE 12

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____ 11.5 __ 23.5 __ 1.0 __ 085 __ 95 ___ E 18

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 11.7 __ 25.4 __ -0.9__ 082 __ 102 ___ NE 12kt

Rikand

Rikand ____ 12.0____ 23.0____ -1.0_____ 90,____ 120_____ E17

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____ 11.5 __ 22.5 __ 0.5 __ 075 __ 130 ___ NE 10

John mac

john mac ____ 11.3 __ 23.5 __ -0.8 __ 101 __ 110 ___ SE 03

mrskinner

Skinner..........11.9.......24.0........-1.0........75.......100........E16

M.T. Cranium

I can't edit the old post so this is my revised forecast, just before the deadline of 0300h, will get a table together when it seems like everyone has posted.

M.T. Cranium _________ 10.5 __ 21.5 __ -1.4 __ 115 __ 090 ___ NE 19

rameire

Rameire______10.8_22.4_-1.0_091_115__NE10

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for May 2017

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Winds Bel 7th noon


Joe Public __________ 12.3 _ 24.9 _--1.9 _ 089 _ 129 ___NE 9
Rikand _____________12.0 _ 23.0 _--1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ E 17
MrSkinner __________ 11.9 _ 24.0 _--1.0 _ 075 _ 100 ___ E16
Kindred Spirit _______ 11.9 _ 22.0 __ 0.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___NE 13
Tae laidir ___________11.7 _ 25.5 __ 0.5 _ 082 _ 115 ___SE 12
Dacogawa __________11.7 _ 25.4 _--0.9 _ 082 _ 102 ___NE 12
mickger844posts _____11.5 _ 23.5 __ 1.0 _ 085 _ 095 ___ E 18
Bsal _______________11.5 _ 23.5 _--0.8 _ 077 _ 108 ___NE 20
Lumi ______________ 11.5 _ 23.1 _--1.5 _ 080 _ 100 ___SW 7
Sunflower3 _________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __ 1.4 _ 105 _ 090 ___NE 10
Jpmarn ____________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __ 0.5 _ 075 _ 130 ___NE 10

Con Sensus _________ 11.5 _ 22.5 _--0.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ E 12

waterways __________11.3 _ 25.0 _--3.0 _ 100 _ 090 ___NW 10
john mac ___________ 11.3 _ 23.5 _--0.8 _ 101 _ 110 ___SE 3
DOCARCH __________ 11.3 _ 22.3 _--0.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___SE 11
200motels __________ 11.3 _ 22.0 __ 1.9 _ 129 _ 091 ___ E 15
Pauldry _____________11.3 _ 21.9 _--1.0 _ 092 _ 109 ___ S 15

NormaL ____________ 11.1 _ 24.0 _ --0.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___SW 14

dasa29 _____________11.0 _ 19.5 __ 1.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___SE 10
Water John __________10.9 _ 19.0 __ 2.8 _ 091 _ 090 ___SW 12
Rameire ____ (-2) ____10.8 _ 22.4 _--1.0 _ 091 _ 115 ___NE 10
sryanbruen __________10.7 _ 20.0 _--1.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ E 25
M.T. Cranium ________10.5 _ 21.5 _--1.4 _ 115 _ 090 ___NE 19

___________________________________________________________

21 forecasts so that Con Sensus is the 11th ranked forecast, except for wind direction where I went with the most frequently mentioned.

Good luck everyone!

It would seem that the group consensus is for a rather warm and somewhat dry month with average sunshine, nobody calling for a large surplus of sunshine anyway, but a few suspect it may turn out cool.

Tae laidir

Newport Furnace 20.7 yesterday for openers.

M.T. Cranium

Low of 0.4 on first at Markree in case we never see a frost.

Tae laidir

Belmullet Countdown:

10.00 N 11
11.00 NE 12
12:00 N 10

John mac

typical . windiest place in the country not a breadth of a breeze earlier .

sryanbruen

Tae laidir wrote: »

Belmullet Countdown:

10.00 N 11
11.00 NE 12
12:00 N 10

Well RIP :pac:, no bonus points for me.

pauldry

Yep nor me n it was South in Newport. Bah!

M.T. Cranium

The actual direction was NNE on the 16-pt scale, but in any case as nobody predicted N (or W), I will equate the one NW guess with the several NE guesses as being closest.

The bonus should have top scores of 10 so what I plan to do is give raw scores of 4 for NE or NW, 3 for E, 2 for SE or SW, 1 for S, then scores out of five for wind speed, as there were no totally correct answers, no 2 pt superbonus but a one point superbonus to three who had NE 10 as their guess.

Total bonus points then will be something like this (raw scores are converted either up or down to preserve equal numbers at each interval):

10 _ Rameire, JPmarn, sunflower3, waterways
9 _ Joe Public, Dacogawa, Dasa29
8 _ Kindred Spirit, Con Sensus
7 _ DOCARCH, Tae laidir
6 _ Water John, 200 motels
5 _ MrSkinner, Rikand
4 _ M.T. Cranium, Bsal, Lumi, NormaL
3 _ John mac, Pauldry
2 _ mickger844posts sryanbruen

(edit, I had a second look, this seems like the fairest scoring for the range of guesses).

pauldry

22c max in Newport today. How long will that stand?

DOCARCH

22.5c (to be precise) in Newport yesterday.

pauldry

MT Dillon -0.3c on the same day (extremes)

Rikand

When thinking whether to pick E17 or N17 I should have went with the saw doctors.

Those 50/50 decisions in life...

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 10.9 C which is 0.6 above normal for the period. Ballyhaise (which is not in the calculation) was warmer than Shannon which is rather unusual, Saturday's cloud in the south largely accounted for that.

PRC running on empty, 0.5% when you add it up.

SUN managed 167% despite Valentia running below average, Belmullet as well as two other northern locations that we don't use above 200%.

As mentioned above, MAX 22.5 and MIN --0.3.

pauldry

22c in Newport again today.

Furnace is a mini furnace.

Yesterday when it was 22.5c in Newport it was 21c in Claremorris but it was 14c in Enniscrone & Belmullet

A big difference between coastal parts of the West and Northwest and only a few miles inland (in the case of Newport)

No wonder Met Eireann need so many stations in the West

DOCARCH

-1c reported this morning at Dublin AP....so, that should come in somewhere between -0.5c and -1.5c.

pauldry

-1.5c it was

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

-1.5c it was

Sure? ME now says -0.5.

pauldry

It does but during the early hours it reached -1.5c

ME only till midnight

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 10.9(4) with the second week at 11.0 C, 0.1 above average. In general the week featured warm days and cool nights so the daytime readings were probably more like 2-3 deg above average.

PRC was boosted to 53% of normal with the week being 106% on average. Today's heavy rainfall not included (just the portion falling up to midnight), so figure on the month now being at 85% of normal through 15 days. If this third week produces 194% of normal values on average, the rainfall would reach normal for the first three weeks. Today's rain (likely to be 20 mm on average at the eleven locations used) is enough to guarantee 120% for the week.

SUN totals were not all available from yesterday in the weekly ag report (Belmullet and Valentia were missing), which meant estimating those two from six known daily amounts and an estimate for the 14th. On that basis, I am sure the average for the week is above 130% and below 152% so going with 141% that leaves the month at 154% of normal plus or minus 5.

MAX and MIN remain 22.5 and --1.5.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 11.1 C with this past week at 11.4, bang on normal for the week. This looks likely to rise gradually to near 12.0 by the end of the month.

PRC has reached 92% of normal with this past week generally wet (the 15th as discussed doing most of the work) at 170% of normal. Current charts suggest this may not rise any further and could fall slightly, expect end of month outcomes around 80 to 85 per cent perhaps.

SUN (earlier estimates checked and confirmed now) managed a third above normal week (105.5%) and this places the average at 138% (plus or minus 2 for uncertainty) of normal. That likely won't fall off much with a few quite sunny days in the forecast period, the lowest I can see this ending up would be 120% and more likely closer to 130%. Even with no sunshine it has to finish at 90% now, which means basically if every day has 2 hours of sunshine on average across the grid, that gets the guaranteed finish above 100%. A normal run gets us to a 120% finish.

The MAX and MIN remain 22.5 and --1.5, could see that MAX pushing 24 or 25 in the coming week, MIN will be challenged to drop any lower but there could still be another frost somewhere.

pauldry

Max could hit 26c even

M.T. Cranium

Will make a daily report on how we're doing ...

22nd May

IMT up about 0.1 or 0.2 to 11.3 rounded up, average near 14 for the day.

PRC down about 1% to 91%, average at the eleven locations used was less than 2 mm.

SUN holding near 137% now, average 5.7 hrs at the six locations a bit below normal

M.T. Cranium

After 23rd ...

IMT at 11.4 as the 23rd was quite a warm day generally (near 15 C).

PRC down again to 90% as the day was almost dry.

SUN has slipped another notch or two, to 135% with an average of 3.3 hours, normal is closer to 6 hours.

no new MAX on 23rd but we will have an upgrade from today's readings.

M.T. Cranium

after 24th ...

IMT now up to 11.6, the day averaged a toasty 17 C.

PRC now down to 88%, the day was dry.

SUN has slipped to 134% as it was rather cloudy (3 hrs on average).

A new Max of 23.2 at Oak Park but we know that has been eclipsed already today (at least 25 C).

pauldry

It may be 25.6c in Finner that wins out.

Only Markree or Pheonix Park maybe has a chance

It reached 25.4c in Sligo town

I cant see 26c being reached tomorrow as there is a lot of instability now . Maybe 24c

Rikand

Newport Furnace still reporting temps at 20

Tae laidir

My ducks are lining up nicely.
Joe Public in Record Territory.

DOCARCH

Highest temp was 25.9c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

pauldry

Ah shucks.

Was doing very well for this month first 20 odd days... now a car crash due to heat.

Still I can put it as (another) bad month

Cmon June!! This time I can get it right