Laying Teresa May to become next prime minister

Neon_Lights

I think this is a very good bet, she's 1.15 in betfair, given the election results on brexit and the confusion I think it could be a closer run thing

4068ac1elhodqr

She could be beaten in this, but only with a coalition of Corbyn, SNP and Lib Dems (BP@26 via SJ).

Add in the Welsh Nats, Greens too, if they all can find enough common ground to form a government, via tactical advantage,

Then (as today) the European Parliament president (Antonio Tajani) said - the EU would happily welcome the UK back. If the country decided to do a U-turn. Yes A-50 is passed, but still in the negotiation stage.

Labour is on about the many 'people' vs the fewer 'power', add in the many Remoaners and that's a possible majority.

Harry Angstrom

It's pointless laying Teresa May. She will be PM after the election. Labour are a mess with Corbyn, the Lib Dems have a leader who nobody knows and the SNP are in danger of losing seats in Scotland to newly Conservative voters who fear that Brexit and the continued strength of the SNP might lead to a break up of the Union. FPP doesn't suit the Greens (and the British, like ourselves, are starting to realise they're a bunch of cranks anyway). Backing Teresa May to be the next PM at 1.15 is better than putting money in the bank. Where else are you going to get a guaranteed 15% return on your investment?

cute geoge

Talking to friend who lives in england he was not very confident of teresa may being next p.m.

Harry Palmr

If it's not May who the hell will it be? Even a coalition of the opposition will find it hard to vote for Corbyn (and they won't muster enough seats anyway)

endacl

'Laying Teresa May'?

Oh dear.

Harry Palmr

This is Teresa May



this is Theresa May

4068ac1elhodqr

Live market reactions are generally positive for JC after the recent broadcast. An item of interest is one vendor offering 117% ROI for TM. Which is maybe the highest for perhaps the last month?

Implied chances of JC being the next PM are far from great, but slowly improving, more erratic movements will follow next week.





TM should statistically be alot stronger than current indications, particularly after last week. There is a slight whiff of sabotage. Essentially a good Tory win would mean Brexit at full steam, anything else indicated a u-turn planned up ahead.

I'd dismiss any talk of huge financial downturns, a tax haven status and the 4IR could see to that. Instead the timid path to Brexit could be due to the other risk, the break-up of the UK. They can't decide if they want to loose their right hand or their entire left leg.

Harry Angstrom

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

Live market reactions are generally positive for JC after the recent broadcast. An item of interest is one vendor offering 117% ROI for TM. Which is maybe the highest for perhaps the last month?

Implied chances of JC being the next PM are far from great, but slowly improving, more erratic movements will follow next week.





TM should statistically be alot stronger than current indications, particularly after last week. There is a slight whiff of sabotage. Essentially a good Tory win would mean Brexit at full steam, anything else indicated a u-turn planned up ahead.

I'd dismiss any talk of huge financial downturns, a tax haven status and the 4IR could see to that. Instead the timid path to Brexit could be due to the other risk, the break-up of the UK. They can't decide if they want to loose their right hand or their entire left leg.

1.17 ROI for TM is still very good value.

4068ac1elhodqr

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

1.17 ROI for TM is still very good value.

'Tis indeed, and may even increase towards 1.25 if they upset any more of the over 65's.

But the big question is how much do they really want something that they say they want, but deep down don't want, nor fully believe in?

Neon_Lights

Really getting an impression this could push out to 1.5 for TM, I appreciate there's such a Conservative dominance but shes running a terrible race, very good value on laying her, corbin has her on the ropes a bit and the UK look like they're heading towards a hung parliament.

4068ac1elhodqr

Something funny could be underway, sabotage of sorts.

As Powers mentioned in a recent press release 'Labour started the UK General Election campaign with the longest opposition odds in UK political history of 18/1. Now JC to be PM is down as low as 9/2.

4068ac1elhodqr

1.2 and 4.5. How much worse can it get for TM, 1.25, 1.33 etc...

Neon_Lights

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

1.2 and 4.5. How much worse can it get for TM, 1.25, 1.33 etc...

Looks like that no show last night was favourable.

Neon_Lights

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Looks like that no show last night was favourable.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyns-labour-narrows-gap-with-tories-to-just-three-points-a3553991.html

4068ac1elhodqr

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Looks like that no show last night was favourable.

Indeed, TM is 1.22 now. This isn't just an election, it's a 'Brexitlection'.



Have a theory that the vast majority of folks 48% that voted Brexit will consider backing this chap. He's also sweeping up vast swathes of the masses will offerings from the 'magic money wishing tree'. Today's ideas are:

- Re-enforcement of the wealth tax idea (90% will benefit)
- Slashing rail fares (often cheaper to fly)
- Cutting or canceling all student debt accrued over the last 10yrs (that's all the educated 20 somethings).

4068ac1elhodqr

Out to 1.25 (vs 4.5) today.

Neon_Lights

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

Out to 1.25 (vs 4.5) today.

Its slowly moving in the right direction let's hope for me it exponentiates

4068ac1elhodqr

Projections are for L to get 254, so the band of 250-299, @5.5 could be of value, the way things are going.

4068ac1elhodqr

Multiple recent events have seen a shift away from Labour support, they we're doing steadily well up until then.

Car crash interviews from Abbot (she's a Tory plant, surely). Being seen as soft on extremists and very vague on brexit don't help Labour at all.
The strange thing is that 90% may have benefited in the short-term from Labour going after the top 10% with direct taxation.

Live markets today indicate that May will likely win, but not by huge amounts, both are poor choices overall.
There will also be large amounts of tactical voting and the 'brexit v2 back-door option' complicates predicting the final result much further.



One thing can see is Rudd taking over from May (she's tired from all the activity) before too long.
Boris isn't suitable to take over, he would be ideal in a circus or something.

NIMAN

A safe bet. She'll win easily.

4068ac1elhodqr

What's the story with WillHill, is their Politco Tradesman/lady on holiday this week?
They're sticking TM as PM at a reasonable +17% margin, and have Jezz short at 4.5, 4.5???



Still 1 hour to go and all other live indications are it's game over.
Saying that, it's never game over until Sunderland/Nuneaton sing.

cute geoge

NIMAN wrote: »

A safe bet. She'll win easily.

It looks like it will be a long night ,might be some value now to have a punt on her

4068ac1elhodqr

1.6 for TM last I looked, the OP had the right idea.
Long night ahead for those chart watching.

Neon_Lights

Greened out on the Market, 115-120 profit approx

Capture.PNG

4068ac1elhodqr

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Greened out on the Market, 115-120 profit approx

Capture.PNG

Still to early to call but great insight and an early market payout assured for you already.

I've been backing/expecting a tory win after recent tragic events and Abbots messing around. But had some earlier single stakes on coalition formation around 26 and up to 41 as a 'back door exit to brexit v2 sabotage type scenario'.

Neon_Lights

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

Still to early to call but great insight and an early market payout assured for you already.

I've been backing/expecting a tory win after recent tragic events and Abbots messing around. But had some earlier single stakes on coalition formation around 26 and up to 41 as a 'back door exit to brexit v2 sabotage type scenario'.

Lets see if the lib dems change their stripes, theyre vehemently against coalitions at the moment. I dont think they want to get into beds with the torys. It could end up in a minority government like here.

4068ac1elhodqr

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Lets see if the lib dems change their stripes, theyre vehemently against coalitions at the moment. I dont think they want to get into beds with the torys. It could end up in a minority government like here.

Not certain, but think they may prefer joining Labour to Tory, and thus scraping the whole idea that is 'brexitous'.

cute geoge

In the last two general elactions the exit polls under estimated the support for the conservatives!!!
Would now be the chance to jump on theresa may

Neon_Lights

cute geoge wrote: »

In the last two general elactions the exit polls under estimated the support for the conservatives!!!
Would now be the chance to jump on theresa may

I'd dutch it on Boris Johnson too, gone from 100/1 down to 5's on some bookmakers

4068ac1elhodqr

Ah Boris is a Buffoon of the highest order, a mugwump or something (not even sure what that means, like 99.8% of any population).
Rudd will take over from May in the morning.

4068ac1elhodqr

cute geoge wrote: »

In the last two general elactions the exit polls under estimated the support for the conservatives!!!
Would now be the chance to jump on theresa may

Only if it represents massive value, ideally with an option to offset/lay back against it. The marginal seat at 01:00hrs could be the best indication as to final direction of things.

Neon_Lights

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

Ah Boris is a Buffoon of the highest order, a mugwump or something (not even sure what that means, like 99.8% of any population).
Rudd will take over from May in the morning.

Apparently, Amber Rudd could have a dog fight on her hands too, there's any sway towards labour in her constituency.

Turmoil it would seem from a conservative perspective.

only a nightmare

theresa may said she wll glass berlin in she gets in, merkel supporters btfo

4068ac1elhodqr

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Apparently, Amber Rudd could have a dog fight on her hands too, there's any sway towards labour in her constituency.

Turmoil it would seem from a conservative perspective.

lol, who else have they got left with any sense, do they have a teaboy or someone that could stand in and show direction....

Neon_Lights

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

lol, who else have they got left with any sense, do they have a teaboy or someone that could stand in and show direction....

David Davis is the name being touted alongside BJ.

mailburner

8/13 may on boyles now :eek:

4068ac1elhodqr

aul Jezza is now the favourite to be the next PM the exchanges.

Tomorrow's newspaper headline: MAYHEM

mailburner

may hit a high of 7/4 last night, best now at 3/10

Neon_Lights

Will be interesting to see now though can she get a coalition going she's looking for ulster unionists and Welsh national party, the greens and independents

Harry Palmr

The DUP are riding to May's rescue, looks like she'll stay in power.

Neon_Lights

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The DUP are riding to May's rescue, looks like she'll stay in power.

"power" Harry, she'll have a hard job pushing stuff through though, I foresee another general election if there's that much stalemate and may will resign within the year I'd imagine

Harry Palmr

This thread is about laying a result, if she is returned as PM for one second the bet fails.

Neon_Lights

Harry Palmr wrote: »

This thread is about laying a result, if she is returned as PM for one second the bet fails.

Not if you're using an exchange when you can choose to payout/green out any time as you will see in my previous attachment

The real mccoy 91

What's the situation with outstanding bets? I backed her when she drifted out last night will it be today or when will there be a result?

Neon_Lights

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

What's the situation with outstanding bets? I backed her when she drifted out last night will it be today or when will there be a result?

Depends on the rules of the market, on betfair its when they're sworn in, so barring any Johnny English style stuff I'd assume you're safe

The real mccoy 91

Neon_Lights wrote:

Depends on the rules of the market, on betfair its when they're sworn in, so barring any Johnny English style stuff I'd assume you're safe

It was with pp so it'll have to be the same. Id be guessing that happens when she goes to the queen?

Neon_Lights

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

It was with pp so it'll have to be the same. Id be guessing that happens when she goes to the queen?

After a government is formed and they're sworn in in Parliament I think would be the time

Neon_Lights

Looks like there's an internal coup this morning in the tories. This is certainly not over.

4068ac1elhodqr

Boris the Buffoon only @3.25 to take over, what a mess. #brexitsabotage

It will likely go to one of the others Rudd/Davis/Davidson @6circa. Only @2.82 for anther GE <17. Funny times.
Have just learned some of her new partners believe firmly in all that creationism flat-earth type stuff

Neon_Lights

Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »

Boris the Buffoon only @3.25 to take over, what a mess. #brexitsabotage

It will likely go to one of the others Rudd/Davis/Davidson @6circa. Only @2.82 for anther GE <17. Funny times.
Have just learned some of her new partners believe firmly in all that creationism flat-earth type stuff

im just watching sky news and trying to scalp where i can, its an unmitigated political disaster, great for betting though.

I just don't see any major conservative candidate as a particularly strong leader.