Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Private profiles - please note that profiles marked as private will soon be public. This will facilitate moderation so mods can view users' warning histories. All of your posts across the site will appear on your profile page (including PI, RI). Groups posts will remain private except to users who have access to the same Groups as you. Thread here
Some important site news, please read here. Thanks!

Laying Teresa May to become next prime minister

  • 18-04-2017 3:20pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    I think this is a very good bet, she's 1.15 in betfair, given the election results on brexit and the confusion I think it could be a closer run thing


«1

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    She could be beaten in this, but only with a coalition of Corbyn, SNP and Lib Dems ([email protected] via SJ).

    Add in the Welsh Nats, Greens too, if they all can find enough common ground to form a government, via tactical advantage,

    Then (as today) the European Parliament president (Antonio Tajani) said - the EU would happily welcome the UK back. If the country decided to do a U-turn. Yes A-50 is passed, but still in the negotiation stage.

    Labour is on about the many 'people' vs the fewer 'power', add in the many Remoaners and that's a possible majority.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Angstrom


    It's pointless laying Teresa May. She will be PM after the election. Labour are a mess with Corbyn, the Lib Dems have a leader who nobody knows and the SNP are in danger of losing seats in Scotland to newly Conservative voters who fear that Brexit and the continued strength of the SNP might lead to a break up of the Union. FPP doesn't suit the Greens (and the British, like ourselves, are starting to realise they're a bunch of cranks anyway). Backing Teresa May to be the next PM at 1.15 is better than putting money in the bank. Where else are you going to get a guaranteed 15% return on your investment?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    Talking to friend who lives in england he was not very confident of teresa may being next p.m.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    If it's not May who the hell will it be? Even a coalition of the opposition will find it hard to vote for Corbyn (and they won't muster enough seats anyway)


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,870 ✭✭✭✭ endacl


    'Laying Teresa May'?

    Oh dear.

    :D


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    This is Teresa May

    may-look-660x330.jpg

    this is Theresa May

    teresa-may.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Live market reactions are generally positive for JC after the recent broadcast. An item of interest is one vendor offering 117% ROI for TM. Which is maybe the highest for perhaps the last month?

    Implied chances of JC being the next PM are far from great, but slowly improving, more erratic movements will follow next week.

    Screen_Shot_2017-05-29_at_22.35.15.png
    Screen_Shot_2017-05-29_at_22.37.51.png
    Screen_Shot_2017-05-29_at_22.38.04.png

    TM should statistically be alot stronger than current indications, particularly after last week. There is a slight whiff of sabotage. Essentially a good Tory win would mean Brexit at full steam, anything else indicated a u-turn planned up ahead.

    I'd dismiss any talk of huge financial downturns, a tax haven status and the 4IR could see to that. Instead the timid path to Brexit could be due to the other risk, the break-up of the UK. They can't decide if they want to loose their right hand or their entire left leg.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Angstrom


    Live market reactions are generally positive for JC after the recent broadcast. An item of interest is one vendor offering 117% ROI for TM. Which is maybe the highest for perhaps the last month?

    Implied chances of JC being the next PM are far from great, but slowly improving, more erratic movements will follow next week.

    Screen_Shot_2017-05-29_at_22.35.15.png
    Screen_Shot_2017-05-29_at_22.37.51.png
    Screen_Shot_2017-05-29_at_22.38.04.png

    TM should statistically be alot stronger than current indications, particularly after last week. There is a slight whiff of sabotage. Essentially a good Tory win would mean Brexit at full steam, anything else indicated a u-turn planned up ahead.

    I'd dismiss any talk of huge financial downturns, a tax haven status and the 4IR could see to that. Instead the timid path to Brexit could be due to the other risk, the break-up of the UK. They can't decide if they want to loose their right hand or their entire left leg.

    1.17 ROI for TM is still very good value.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    1.17 ROI for TM is still very good value.

    'Tis indeed, and may even increase towards 1.25 if they upset any more of the over 65's.

    But the big question is how much do they really want something that they say they want, but deep down don't want, nor fully believe in?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    Really getting an impression this could push out to 1.5 for TM, I appreciate there's such a Conservative dominance but shes running a terrible race, very good value on laying her, corbin has her on the ropes a bit and the UK look like they're heading towards a hung parliament.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Something funny could be underway, sabotage of sorts.

    As Powers mentioned in a recent press release 'Labour started the UK General Election campaign with the longest opposition odds in UK political history of 18/1. Now JC to be PM is down as low as 9/2.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    1.2 and 4.5. How much worse can it get for TM, 1.25, 1.33 etc...

    Screen_Shot_2017-05-31_at_18.42.38.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    1.2 and 4.5. How much worse can it get for TM, 1.25, 1.33 etc...

    Screen_Shot_2017-05-31_at_18.42.38.png

    Looks like that no show last night was favourable. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Looks like that no show last night was favourable. :)

    Indeed, TM is 1.22 now. This isn't just an election, it's a 'Brexitlection'.

    Screen_Shot_2017-06-01_at_15.14.50.png

    Have a theory that the vast majority of folks 48% that voted Brexit will consider backing this chap. He's also sweeping up vast swathes of the masses will offerings from the 'magic money wishing tree'. Today's ideas are:

    - Re-enforcement of the wealth tax idea (90% will benefit)
    - Slashing rail fares (often cheaper to fly)
    - Cutting or canceling all student debt accrued over the last 10yrs (that's all the educated 20 somethings).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Out to 1.25 (vs 4.5) today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    Out to 1.25 (vs 4.5) today.

    Its slowly moving in the right direction let's hope for me it exponentiates :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Projections are for L to get 254, so the band of 250-299, @5.5 could be of value, the way things are going.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Multiple recent events have seen a shift away from Labour support, they we're doing steadily well up until then.

    Car crash interviews from Abbot (she's a Tory plant, surely). Being seen as soft on extremists and very vague on brexit don't help Labour at all.
    The strange thing is that 90% may have benefited in the short-term from Labour going after the top 10% with direct taxation.

    Live markets today indicate that May will likely win, but not by huge amounts, both are poor choices overall.
    There will also be large amounts of tactical voting and the 'brexit v2 back-door option' complicates predicting the final result much further.

    Screen_Shot_2017-06-07_at_13.55.41.png

    One thing can see is Rudd taking over from May (she's tired from all the activity) before too long.
    Boris isn't suitable to take over, he would be ideal in a circus or something.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,690 ✭✭✭✭ NIMAN


    A safe bet. She'll win easily.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    What's the story with WillHill, is their Politco Tradesman/lady on holiday this week?
    They're sticking TM as PM at a reasonable +17% margin, and have Jezz short at 4.5, 4.5???

    m444SLg.png

    Still 1 hour to go and all other live indications are it's game over.
    Saying that, it's never game over until Sunderland/Nuneaton sing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    NIMAN wrote: »
    A safe bet. She'll win easily.

    It looks like it will be a long night ,might be some value now to have a punt on her


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    1.6 for TM last I looked, the OP had the right idea.
    Long night ahead for those chart watching.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    Greened out on the Market, 115-120 profit approx

    Capture.PNG


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Greened out on the Market, 115-120 profit approx

    Capture.PNG

    Still to early to call but great insight and an early market payout assured for you already.

    I've been backing/expecting a tory win after recent tragic events and Abbots messing around. But had some earlier single stakes on coalition formation around 26 and up to 41 as a 'back door exit to brexit v2 sabotage type scenario'.

    r4Kzl31.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    Still to early to call but great insight and an early market payout assured for you already.

    I've been backing/expecting a tory win after recent tragic events and Abbots messing around. But had some earlier single stakes on coalition formation around 26 and up to 41 as a 'back door exit to brexit v2 sabotage type scenario'.

    r4Kzl31.png

    Lets see if the lib dems change their stripes, theyre vehemently against coalitions at the moment. I dont think they want to get into beds with the torys. It could end up in a minority government like here.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Lets see if the lib dems change their stripes, theyre vehemently against coalitions at the moment. I dont think they want to get into beds with the torys. It could end up in a minority government like here.

    Not certain, but think they may prefer joining Labour to Tory, and thus scraping the whole idea that is 'brexitous'.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    In the last two general elactions the exit polls under estimated the support for the conservatives!!!
    Would now be the chance to jump on theresa may


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights


    cute geoge wrote: »
    In the last two general elactions the exit polls under estimated the support for the conservatives!!!
    Would now be the chance to jump on theresa may

    I'd dutch it on Boris Johnson too, gone from 100/1 down to 5's on some bookmakers


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sutton Greasy Tailor


    Ah Boris is a Buffoon of the highest order, a mugwump or something (not even sure what that means, like 99.8% of any population).
    Rudd will take over from May in the morning.


Advertisement