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Laying Teresa May to become next prime minister
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18-04-2017 4:20pm#1
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Live market reactions are generally positive for JC after the recent broadcast. An item of interest is one vendor offering 117% ROI for TM. Which is maybe the highest for perhaps the last month?
Implied chances of JC being the next PM are far from great, but slowly improving, more erratic movements will follow next week.
TM should statistically be alot stronger than current indications, particularly after last week. There is a slight whiff of sabotage. Essentially a good Tory win would mean Brexit at full steam, anything else indicated a u-turn planned up ahead.
I'd dismiss any talk of huge financial downturns, a tax haven status and the 4IR could see to that. Instead the timid path to Brexit could be due to the other risk, the break-up of the UK. They can't decide if they want to loose their right hand or their entire left leg.0 -
Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »Live market reactions are generally positive for JC after the recent broadcast. An item of interest is one vendor offering 117% ROI for TM. Which is maybe the highest for perhaps the last month?
Implied chances of JC being the next PM are far from great, but slowly improving, more erratic movements will follow next week.
TM should statistically be alot stronger than current indications, particularly after last week. There is a slight whiff of sabotage. Essentially a good Tory win would mean Brexit at full steam, anything else indicated a u-turn planned up ahead.
I'd dismiss any talk of huge financial downturns, a tax haven status and the 4IR could see to that. Instead the timid path to Brexit could be due to the other risk, the break-up of the UK. They can't decide if they want to loose their right hand or their entire left leg.
1.17 ROI for TM is still very good value.0 -
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Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »1.2 and 4.5. How much worse can it get for TM, 1.25, 1.33 etc...
Looks like that no show last night was favourable.
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Neon_Lights wrote: »Looks like that no show last night was favourable.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyns-labour-narrows-gap-with-tories-to-just-three-points-a3553991.html0 -
Neon_Lights wrote: »Looks like that no show last night was favourable.
Indeed, TM is 1.22 now. This isn't just an election, it's a 'Brexitlection'.
Have a theory that the vast majority of folks 48% that voted Brexit will consider backing this chap. He's also sweeping up vast swathes of the masses will offerings from the 'magic money wishing tree'. Today's ideas are:
- Re-enforcement of the wealth tax idea (90% will benefit)
- Slashing rail fares (often cheaper to fly)
- Cutting or canceling all student debt accrued over the last 10yrs (that's all the educated 20 somethings).0 -
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Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »Out to 1.25 (vs 4.5) today.
Its slowly moving in the right direction let's hope for me it exponentiates 0 -
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Multiple recent events have seen a shift away from Labour support, they we're doing steadily well up until then.
Car crash interviews from Abbot (she's a Tory plant, surely). Being seen as soft on extremists and very vague on brexit don't help Labour at all.
The strange thing is that 90% may have benefited in the short-term from Labour going after the top 10% with direct taxation.
Live markets today indicate that May will likely win, but not by huge amounts, both are poor choices overall.
There will also be large amounts of tactical voting and the 'brexit v2 back-door option' complicates predicting the final result much further.
One thing can see is Rudd taking over from May (she's tired from all the activity) before too long.
Boris isn't suitable to take over, he would be ideal in a circus or something.0 -
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What's the story with WillHill, is their Politco Tradesman/lady on holiday this week?
They're sticking TM as PM at a reasonable +17% margin, and have Jezz short at 4.5, 4.5???
Still 1 hour to go and all other live indications are it's game over.
Saying that, it's never game over until Sunderland/Nuneaton sing.0 -
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Neon_Lights wrote: »
Still to early to call but great insight and an early market payout assured for you already.
I've been backing/expecting a tory win after recent tragic events and Abbots messing around. But had some earlier single stakes on coalition formation around 26 and up to 41 as a 'back door exit to brexit v2 sabotage type scenario'.
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Sutton Greasy Tailor wrote: »Still to early to call but great insight and an early market payout assured for you already.
I've been backing/expecting a tory win after recent tragic events and Abbots messing around. But had some earlier single stakes on coalition formation around 26 and up to 41 as a 'back door exit to brexit v2 sabotage type scenario'.
Lets see if the lib dems change their stripes, theyre vehemently against coalitions at the moment. I dont think they want to get into beds with the torys. It could end up in a minority government like here.0 -
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