Unemployment low, Tax revenue below target, House prices high... The Perfect Storm 2?

BoatMad

grahambo wrote: »

Yeah the insurance will pay for the repairs

But the Garage is now effectively free of it's obligation to accept the car back.
I wouldn't buy a car if I'd know it's been crashed, regardless of how well it's been repaired.



I think you're wrong. I think there'll be some stupid caveat or rule which would mean the state has to bail them out
OR
the Euro Bank might say, Let the bank fold. At which the Irish Politicians (that are buddies with all the top bankers) will decide to bail them out.

Tax Payer ALWAYS ends up footing the bill in this country.

You are wrong. The situation is now that central funds will be used to " bail " troublesome banks.

The tax payer didn't actually pay for the bailout of AIB and BoI. In fact the taxpayer is set to make a nice little earner ( pity we don't get the bonus ) this money was an investment from the NPR

The interest on the promissiosry note actually is paid by the state to the Irish central bank ( which reverts all its profits back to the self same state ) the capital will be rolled over forever in practice

Also NAMA will also return a nice earned to the " tax payer "'as well.

But hey the unwashed masses will prefer a placard that says " the taxpayer always pay".

Union Man

The only reason unemployment is going down is because they are moving people on to disability.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Union Man wrote: »

The only reason unemployment is going down is because they are moving people on to disability.

Yes, nothing to do with all the new jobs created this year at all.

Link for your hypothesis?

Fr_Dougal

BoatMad wrote: »

A PCP is a ballon lease , nothing more nothing less.

The hand back is an option excercised by a tiny minority of people ( as most people need a car ) hence minimum value calculations are irelevant

What is wrong with PCP is what either unscrupulous or mistaken car salespeople have told gullible customers. ( change your car for the same money type of nonsense )

But there is no bubble to be burst in PCP

Yes there is. The UK have had the pcp scheme for a few years now and are currently going through one. Have a quick google.

jiltloop wrote: »

Property prices are rising because of a lack of supply, when the 2007 bubble burst there was a massive surplus of housing and lots of construction still underway which led to all of the ghost estates. I can't see any property bubble bursting while there is such a massive shortage of houses.

On top of this the banks are more careful with lending practices, it's just unfortunate that the Central Bank capitulated against their better judgement and relaxed the lending rules as this has driven up prices in an already under supplied market by introducing more prospective buyers. Anyone with an ounce of sense would have known this would happen.

The only thing that may cause another recession is external economic factors having a knock on effect on our economy and causing mass job loss, this is the only way I can see a recession happening at the moment.

External economic factors are what generally cause recessions. It's like saying the only reason you'll crash your car is by accident.

Union Man

Ismael Uptight Tinder wrote: »

Union Man wrote: »

The only reason unemployment is going down is because they are moving people on to disability.

Yes, nothing to do with all the new jobs created this year at all.

Link for your hypothesis?

It won't let me post a link but you can google it. About 600 thousand people are on disability.

For Forks Sake

Union Man wrote: »

It won't let me post a link but you can google it. About 600 thousand people are on disability.

It will, problem is I don't believe you.

And "google it" is the refuge of someone devoid of any facts to back up their bullsh1t.

Your Face

Perfect Storm 2, I never even seen the first one.

C Montgomery Gurns II

PMBC wrote:

Rising prices with shortage of supply seems to make economic sense. EXCEPT during the boom when excess houses were being produced, prices rose. So maybe property does not follow that rule.

Only because of no deposit needed endless credit being handed to any couple over their early 20's who had any sort of employment. To be quite honest any young couple wanting to buy a reasonably priced three bed in Dublin at the moment (plenty of grand ones for below 220K) have to do nothing more than move in with the parents (or move into a cheap house share) and commit themselves to 12- 18 months of the most miserable, depressing, boring, no pubs no delivered pizza no nights out lifestyle of their lives.

It would be a wretched year but it might just sort the rest of your life out.

Wheeliebin30

BoatMad wrote: »

You are wrong. The situation is now that central funds will be used to " bail " troublesome banks.

The tax payer didn't actually pay for the bailout of AIB and BoI. In fact the taxpayer is set to make a nice little earner ( pity we don't get the bonus ) this money was an investment from the NPR

The interest on the promissiosry note actually is paid by the state to the Irish central bank ( which reverts all its profits back to the self same state ) the capital will be rolled over forever in practice

Also NAMA will also return a nice earned to the " tax payer "'as well.

But hey the unwashed masses will prefer a placard that says " the taxpayer always pay".

Is this actually true?

So all the noises and protests are for nothing:)

Yourself isit

grahambo wrote: »

Read 3 articles in the news today

1: (2 together really) - House prices sky rocketing
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/ireland-not-heading-for-another-property-boom-says-coveney-1.3034693
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-house-price-is-now-six-times-the-average-income-1.3035168

2: Unemployment Rate falling
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-falls-to-6-4-as-labour-market-improves-1.3036144

3: Yet Tax Revenue Targets down (7.6% for march, 2.4% for Q1), and Government spending up
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/income-tax-take-undershoots-government-target-by-282m-1.3036527

I think we are heading for recession MkII.

The 3 articles above should not exist together, they contradict each other: In particular Tax Revenue down with Unemployment down.. How can that be?!

This is basically the type of news we were hearing in 2006 / 2007 before the **** hit the Fan at approx 2082340732 miles per hour.

New car sales are also down, (usually a very good indicator of how well Joe public is doing)

Really hope I'm wrong.

Looks like employment is up but wages are falling. Based on the USC.

Yourself isit

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Is this actually true?

So all the noises and protests are for nothing:)

It's nonsense. The tax payer paid for all this stuff. The npr was funded by the taxpayer.

The supposed profit has yet to materialise. And a mere glance at your paycheck would indicate a charge called USC. Which is paying for something.

dasdog

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Is this actually true?

So all the noises and protests are for nothing:)

There may be a return on the "pillar banks" thanks to government policy of driving up property prices to get AIB/BOI healthy but the notion NAMA is going to turn a profit is bollocks. Say someone I know has just borrowed some money to buy an asset, a case of vintage wine for 10,000 and suddenly finds he has a cash flow problem and needs to offload it. So he sells it to me for 5,000 and I in turn sell that on a year later for 6,000. I've made a one grand profit, happy days. But my friend, lets call him the Irish Wine Resolution Corporation is down a sizeable sum and his creditors are barking for the missing 5,000 he still owes them. But lets not talk about my buddy IWRC's loss or how his creditors get their five grand back...or the fact that I could have sold the bottles individually for 7,000.

https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/namas-billions-fed-vulture-funds-383192

Beta Ray Bill

BoatMad wrote: »

You are wrong. The situation is now that central funds will be used to " bail " troublesome banks.

The tax payer didn't actually pay for the bailout of AIB and BoI. In fact the taxpayer is set to make a nice little earner ( pity we don't get the bonus ) this money was an investment from the NPR

The interest on the promissory note actually is paid by the state to the Irish central bank ( which reverts all its profits back to the self same state ) the capital will be rolled over forever in practice

Also NAMA will also return a nice earned to the " tax payer "'as well.

But hey the unwashed masses will prefer a placard that says " the taxpayer always pay".

I'm sorry but you're two points there are absolutely rubbish.

NAMA is already being investigated for dodgy deals and backhanders at the tax payer and Joe public's expense.
It's not even in place 10 years are there are have been serious questions raised about it activities.

Where is all this Profit from the NPR/promissory note interest?
I understand what you are talking about and have read articles about it, yet it has never materialized.

One look at your Payslip at the end of the month shows that we are being taxed to the hilt, (Not to mention all the shadow taxes) where's the money going?
It's sure as hell not going into public services.

Yourself isit wrote: »

It's nonsense. The tax payer paid for all this stuff. The npr was funded by the taxpayer.

The supposed profit has yet to materialise. And a mere glance at your paycheck would indicate a charge called USC. Which is paying for something.

Ditto!

dasdog wrote: »

There may be a return on the "pillar banks" thanks to government policy of driving up property prices to get AIB/BOI healthy but the notion NAMA is going to turn a profit is bollocks. Say someone I know has just borrowed some money to buy an asset, a case of vintage wine for 10,000 and suddenly finds he has a cash flow problem and needs to offload it. So he sells it to me for 5,000 and I in turn sell that on a year later for 6,000. I've made a one grand profit, happy days. But my friend, lets call him the Irish Wine Resolution Corporation is down a sizeable sum and his creditors are barking for the missing 5,000 he still owes them. But lets not talk about my buddy IWRC's loss or how his creditors get their five grand back...or the fact that I could have sold the bottles individually for 7,000.

https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/namas-billions-fed-vulture-funds-383192

NAMA is a Joke.
Fire sale for people with lots of money to buy up stuff cheap and sell it on making huge profits at the tax payers expense.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Union Man wrote: »

It won't let me post a link but you can google it. About 600 thousand people are on disability.

No, you are completely misreading, or misrepresenting, the facts. 600,000 were reported on the census as having a disability of some sort. They are not, by any means, all unemployed - nor indeed of working age. Even if they were, they have not been moved from unemployment allowance to disability allowances in recent years only.

BoatMad

I'm sorry but you're two points there are absolutely rubbish.

NAMA is already being investigated for dodgy deals and backhanders at the tax payer and Joe public's expense.
It's not even in place 10 years are there are have been serious questions raised about it activities.

Where is all this Profit from the NPR/promissory note interest?
I understand what you are talking about and have read articles about it, yet it has never materialized.

One look at your Payslip at the end of the month shows that we are being taxed to the hilt, (Not to mention all the shadow taxes) where's the money going?
It's sure as hell not going into public services.

whether or not NAMA is being investigated is irrelevant, the fact is that NAMA will on its dissolution , return a nice earner to the state , i.e. the state capitalised NAMA to buy the assets at a discount from the banks , and then sell them, its will make an overall profit on that process

Where is all this Profit from the NPR/promissory note interest?
I understand what you are talking about and have read articles about it, yet it has never materialized.

"
Central Bank pays €1.8bn dividend to exchequer

The Central Bank has paid almost €1.8 billion to the exchequer, after increasing profits to €2.24 billion last year, according to its annual report, up from €2.14 billion the previous year. The profits related largely to the sale of holdings of special government bonds which the Central Bank took on when the IBRC was liquidated in 2013"

Selling the bonds allows the bank to book a profit and return money to the exchequer – and the unrealised gains shows that further profits may be returned in the years ahead, though only if bond prices stay strong."

source http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-pays-1-8bn-dividend-to-exchequer-1.2626232

Note that as of now a percentage of the promissory notes are now in private hands, as per instructions from the ECB, hence the interest on this part of the loan will not return to exchequer, but equally the CBI and NTMA can trade and refinance this debt at lower costs

Up till that , ALL interest paid while the promisionary notes was recirculated to the exchequer ( it was in essence free money )

One look at your Payslip at the end of the month shows that we are being taxed to the hilt, (Not to mention all the shadow taxes) where's the money going?
It's sure as hell not going into public services.

As an average, Irelands is in the lower half of general overall tax, taking income tax, consumption taxes and property and service taxes.

SO you are clearly " not taxed to the hilt"
75% of tax goes on education, health and social welfare

perhaps you could suggest what we might cut deeply there to make your tax bill lower