Unemployment low, Tax revenue below target, House prices high... The Perfect Storm 2?

Beta Ray Bill

Read 3 articles in the news today

1: (2 together really) - House prices sky rocketing
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/ireland-not-heading-for-another-property-boom-says-coveney-1.3034693
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-house-price-is-now-six-times-the-average-income-1.3035168

2: Unemployment Rate falling
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-falls-to-6-4-as-labour-market-improves-1.3036144

3: Yet Tax Revenue Targets down (7.6% for march, 2.4% for Q1), and Government spending up
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/income-tax-take-undershoots-government-target-by-282m-1.3036527

I think we are heading for recession MkII.

The 3 articles above should not exist together, they contradict each other: In particular Tax Revenue down with Unemployment down.. How can that be?!

This is basically the type of news we were hearing in 2006 / 2007 before the **** hit the Fan at approx 2082340732 miles per hour.

New car sales are also down, (usually a very good indicator of how well Joe public is doing)

Really hope I'm wrong.

CIARAN_BOYLE

2016 was windfall good for the economy in several sectors so of course there is going to be a pull back in 2017.

For example tax settlements were high (that is to say small businesses paying 4+ years of back paye/vat/ct) because the year was so good.

Let's wait 6 months before we try to call a trend.

Jack the Stripper

Will the recession MK2 wait till I get the decking down?

Effects

I think we are heading for recession MkII.

You mean 21st Century recession MkII.

It'll be grand, Brexit's going to give us a great boost.

BoatMad

conditions are different, Banking will not fail again , so the issue of credit to the construction sector will not be a factor

I suspect Brexit will have a very chilling effect on spending as consumes become more wary. Interest rates rises are on the way too , so that and the chilling effect will tend to put a brake on house prices, ( as will more and more new houses coming on the market )


I dont see the same thing happening in the same way. The state finances are not dependant on house related taxes and the Gov can clearly raise additional and more importantly predictable taxes by raising the LPT.

amcalester

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

2016 was windfall good for the economy in several sectors so of course there is going to be a pull back in 2017.

For example tax settlements were high (that is to say small businesses paying 4+ years of back paye/vat/ct) because the year was so good.

Let's wait 6 months before we try to call a trend.

I think these figures are based off projections for 2017 not a comparison of 2016 which I'm sure would have taken into account the 2016 windfall..

Heard on NT Drive that VAT and Income Tax were on budget and the deficit is in USC.

I wonder if someone forgot to carry the 1.

soups05

never seen the boom, suffered the bust, not seen the recovery yet so basically don't give a fig.

got nothing, therefore have nothing to lose lol.

Senna

Interest rates likely to rise within 12 months too.
A lot of people only experienced the last property fueled bubble/recession so assume that it's the only reason we could have another recession, it is not.

Beta Ray Bill

Jack the Stripper wrote: »

Will the recession MK2 wait till I get the decking down?

Jesus the Decking!!!?
I also need to get the decking down!

All I'm saying is I'm in a very well paid Job. (and so is my misses)
I've a decent enough house in the big smoke.
A 9 year old car and a new motorcycle.

I was lucky in that I was able to get the house right as the prices bottomed out.
If I was looking now, I wouldn't have a prayer.

And even now I'm finding it hard to save.
I'm lucky in that I've a v good job.

I don't know how anyone else on less money is getting by.

And it seems to be getting worse.

I think we've a another "pop" coming and everything is gonna go to sh*t
Anyone that thinks the Government won't Bail out the Banks again (if it were ever needed) needs their head examined!

suicide_circus

soups05 wrote: »

never seen the boom, suffered the bust, not seen the recovery yet so basically don't give a fig.

got nothing, therefore have nothing to lose lol.

I've nothing to lose...except possibly my job if brexit goes very very wrong.

Wheeliebin30

Corporation tax has yet to be paid by the top 10 who pay 40% of the tax.

Once that's paid it will be up.

Talk about panic and hyperbole without actually reading things properly.

jiltloop

Property prices are rising because of a lack of supply, when the 2007 bubble burst there was a massive surplus of housing and lots of construction still underway which led to all of the ghost estates. I can't see any property bubble bursting while there is such a massive shortage of houses.

On top of this the banks are more careful with lending practices, it's just unfortunate that the Central Bank capitulated against their better judgement and relaxed the lending rules as this has driven up prices in an already under supplied market by introducing more prospective buyers. Anyone with an ounce of sense would have known this would happen.

The only thing that may cause another recession is external economic factors having a knock on effect on our economy and causing mass job loss, this is the only way I can see a recession happening at the moment.

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

amcalester wrote: »

I wonder if someone forgot to carry the 1.

The end is nigh!

PMBC

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

2016 was windfall good for the economy in several sectors so of course there is going to be a pull back in 2017.

For example tax settlements were high (that is to say small businesses paying 4+ years of back paye/vat/ct) because the year was so good.

Let's wait 6 months before we try to call a trend.

But USC is down - how can that be if employment is up? Is it possible that a lot of the employment is part time/zero hours contracts/ minimum wage?? Sounds like that to me; it would in that case mirror the UK situation.

PMBC

jiltloop wrote: »

Property prices are rising because of a lack of supply, when the 2007 bubble burst there was a massive surplus of housing and lots of construction still underway which led to all of the ghost estates. I can't see any property bubble bursting while there is such a massive shortage of houses.

On top of this the banks are more careful with lending practices, it's just unfortunate that the Central Bank capitulated against their better judgement and relaxed the lending rules as this has driven up prices in an already under supplied market by introducing more prospective buyers. Anyone with an ounce of sense would have known this would happen.

The only thing that may cause another recession is external economic factors having a knock on effect on our economy and causing mass job loss, this is the only way I can see a recession happening at the moment.

Rising prices with shortage of supply seems to make economic sense. EXCEPT during the boom when excess houses were being produced, prices rose. So maybe property does not follow that rule.

Icemancometh

PMBC wrote: »

But USC is down - how can that be if employment is up? Is it possible that a lot of the employment is part time/zero hours contracts/ minimum wage?? Sounds like that to me; it would in that case mirror the UK situation.

USC is down on estimate but actually up on 2016

Senna

jiltloop wrote: »

Property prices are rising because of a lack of supply, when the 2007 bubble burst there was a massive surplus of housing and lots of construction still underway which led to all of the ghost estates. I can't see any property bubble bursting while there is such a massive shortage of houses.

On top of this the banks are more careful with lending practices, it's just unfortunate that the Central Bank capitulated against their better judgement and relaxed the lending rules as this has driven up prices in an already under supplied market by introducing more prospective buyers. Anyone with an ounce of sense would have known this would happen.

The only thing that may cause another recession is external economic factors having a knock on effect on our economy and causing mass job loss, this is the only way I can see a recession happening at the moment.

So you're saying the fundamentals are good in the Irish property market? Where have I heard that before.
It will take very little to put Ireland back in recession, Britex is almost guaranteed to cause it, only problem is working out which particular way it will hurt us, there are so many choices.

odd_socks wrote: »

the global economy has actually staged a pretty surprising turnaround this past twelve months , europe is also looking up , spain is booming and france is recovering at a reasonable rate too

as for interest rates rising , they never fell in this country properly in the first place

was in spain two years ago and santander were offering 15 k loans over five years ( car loan type amount ) @ 3.5%

here you would have been talking 8% for that amount over that term

So you think when they start going up, they will go up in Spain and not here? Of course not, the problem is they go to 5% in Spain and its 10% here. We have no control of rates and as you say, Europe is looking better, so what do you think that means the ECB will do?

ToddyDoody

odd_socks wrote: »

the global economy has actually staged a pretty surprising turnaround this past twelve months , europe is also looking up , spain is booming and france is recovering at a reasonable rate too

as for interest rates rising , they never fell in this country properly in the first place

was in spain two years ago and santander were offering 15 k loans over five years ( car loan type amount ) @ 3.5%

here you would have been talking 8% for that amount over that term

Also, the corrs are releasing new material. Its not to everyone's taste, but my theory is the corrs only release new music when the economy is good.

Jurgen Klopp

PMBC wrote: »

But USC is down - how can that be if employment is up? Is it possible that a lot of the employment is part time/zero hours contracts/ minimum wage?? Sounds like that to me; it would in that case mirror the UK situation.

For a long time now, if you are on the dole and start a course whether it's a Level 5 or up to college degree you are moved off the "unemployed" numbers

I might be wrong but I'd swear the journal as much as i dislike it compared those unemployed in the **** hit the fan start of the recession and now, accounting for those in education and the unemployment figure wasn't as low as they like to bang on about

VinLieger

literally the only reason for threads like these is so if and when something does happen people can point to them and go "called it"

Wanderer78

I am waiting for a major crash but I don't think anybody knows the details of what, when, where and how. It's clearly obvious to me that our current systems and approach to solving the issues over the last few years are failing and I'm not convinced the powers that be know what to do next. This could get interesting

PMBC

Icemancometh wrote: »

USC is down on estimate but actually up on 2016

Thanks for that clarification, IMC

Beta Ray Bill

jiltloop wrote: »

On top of this the banks are more careful with lending practices, it's just unfortunate that the Central Bank capitulated against their better judgement and relaxed the lending rules as this has driven up prices in an already under supplied market by introducing more prospective buyers. Anyone with an ounce of sense would have known this would happen.

No they most certainly are not.
I'm an IT worker, I've worked in many financial institutions.
They are not careful. Their culture will never change.
Even now, after everything that's happened, all of the Bankers (from low level to very senior) that I've talked to feel they did nothing wrong in the lead up to the crash.

Even now they are thinking of new ways to sucker people into ridiculous debt.
These new PCP schemes for new cars.... Mental Stuff, you'd want to be off your rocker to dive into that. If ANYTHING goes wrong. your saddled with massive debt and you lose the vehicle!

grahambo

grahambo wrote: »

Even now they are thinking of new ways to sucker people into ridiculous debt.
These new PCP schemes for new cars.... Mental Stuff, you'd want to be off your rocker to dive into that. If ANYTHING goes wrong. your saddled with massive debt and you lose the vehicle!

What debt are you saddled with and what could go wrong? It's 3 years, a new car, warranty coming out its arse. After 3 years you can hand it back, no debt.
The only "bubble" I can see it creating is to increase the number of decent second hand cars available.

Beta Ray Bill

Deleted User wrote: »

What debt are you saddled with and what could go wrong? It's 3 years, a new car, warranty coming out its arse. After 3 years you can hand it back, no debt.
The only "bubble" I can see it creating is to increase the number of decent second hand cars available.

My understanding is the car has to be in immaculate condition when you hand it back.

Things like Scratches, Dents, Stains in the seats, More mileage than allotted amount, repair or maintenance work carried out by someone other than the main dealer or if the car is in a crash, there is no way a dealer will accept it back and will ask you for the bill.

A normal loan is about 7.5%
PCP loan works out at about 15%.

As I understand it you cannot hand the car back early unless you're upgrading.

BoatMad

grahambo wrote: »

My understanding is the car has to be in immaculate condition when you hand it back.

Things like Scratches, Dents, Stains in the seats, More mileage than allotted amount, repair or maintenance work carried out by someone other than the main dealer or if the car is in a crash, there is no way a dealer will accept it back and will ask you for the bill.

A normal loan is about 7.5%
PCP loan works out at about 15%.

As I understand it you cannot hand the car back early unless you're upgrading.

A PCP is a ballon lease , nothing more nothing less.

The hand back is an option excercised by a tiny minority of people ( as most people need a car ) hence minimum value calculations are irelevant

What is wrong with PCP is what either unscrupulous or mistaken car salespeople have told gullible customers. ( change your car for the same money type of nonsense )

But there is no bubble to be burst in PCP

BoatMad

grahambo wrote: »

My understanding is the car has to be in immaculate condition when you hand it back.

Things like Scratches, Dents, Stains in the seats, More mileage than allotted amount, repair or maintenance work carried out by someone other than the main dealer or if the car is in a crash, there is no way a dealer will accept it back and will ask you for the bill.

A normal loan is about 7.5%
PCP loan works out at about 15%.

As I understand it you cannot hand the car back early unless you're upgrading.

You can in nearly all cases just like any ballon lease get a settlement figure from the finance provider

grahambo

grahambo wrote: »

My understanding is the car has to be in immaculate condition when you hand it back.

Things like Scratches, Dents, Stains in the seats, More mileage than allotted amount, repair or maintenance work carried out by someone other than the main dealer or if the car is in a crash, there is no way a dealer will accept it back and will ask you for the bill.

A normal loan is about 7.5%
PCP loan works out at about 15%.

As I understand it you cannot hand the car back early unless you're upgrading.

Why take it to any other dealer after a crash then? Paying for repairs after a crash is what insurance is for.

BoatMad

I think we've a another "pop" coming and everything is gonna go to sh*t
Anyone that thinks the Government won't Bail out the Banks again (if it were ever needed) needs their head examined!

The state will NOT have to bail out Euro banks again , there are now several Eurozone bank stability and rescue mechanisms at an EU level , that did not exist when Ireland got into trouble.

Beta Ray Bill

Deleted User wrote: »

Why take it to any other dealer after a crash then? Paying for repairs after a crash is what insurance is for.

Yeah the insurance will pay for the repairs

But the Garage is now effectively free of it's obligation to accept the car back.
I wouldn't buy a car if I'd know it's been crashed, regardless of how well it's been repaired.

BoatMad wrote: »

The state will NOT have to bail out Euro banks again , there are now several Eurozone bank stability and rescue mechanisms at an EU level , that did not exist when Ireland got into trouble.

I think you're wrong. I think there'll be some stupid caveat or rule which would mean the state has to bail them out
OR
the Euro Bank might say, Let the bank fold. At which the Irish Politicians (that are buddies with all the top bankers) will decide to bail them out.

Tax Payer ALWAYS ends up footing the bill in this country.

buck65

Where is David McWilliams, I need to hear some funny monikers for people - like Breakfast roll man, Soccer mom etc. Hilarious.