ENSO 2017/18

sryanbruen

After one of the weakest La Nina events on record, the models immediately turned around to an El Nino situation in 2017/18. Up to February, the models were showing a moderate El Nino and as I already said in the La Nina thread here:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102739020&postcount=21

Moderate El Nino is a good sign of a cold or blocked Winter but there is still a chance for a mild and wet Winter as with Ireland's weather, there is never a guarantee :P.

The CANSIPS model is showing a super strong El Nino :eek: to take place in 2017/18 but that's only two years after the previous super strong El Nino. There have been only three super strong El Nino events in existence so far. These being:

• 1982/83
• 1997/98
• 2015/16

There is a long gap in between each of the above but how the CANSIPS is expecting a super strong El Nino to take place just two years after the previous one is very remarkable.

What's interesting to point out is the fact that each of the super strong El Nino events above had a remarkably mild Winter month with January 1983, February 1998 and December 2015. Obviously, January 1983 wasn't as extreme as the latter two but it was still very remarkable how mild it was.

We have not had a moderate El Nino since the beautiful Winter of 2009/10.. . It'd be amazing if we got a moderate El Nino this Winter and have a repeat of that Winter BUT we can all care to dream :rolleyes:.

I think the CANSIPS is going way overboard with the super strong El Nino. I don't think it will come off and the most I can expect right now is a moderate El Nino. But hey, just because I don't think it will happen doesn't mean it won't happen.

God love us if it's a super strong El Nino and we have to suffer a month like December 2015 again .

EDIT: Also, it looks as though the cold blob in the Atlantic that has been stuck there since late 2014 will continue through 2017 which will make a negative NAO very difficult to happen. To add some optimism, the cold blob does not look nearly as cold or as large as it was in 2015, so very low chance we will get a month as wet as December 2015 next Winter.... at the moment that is from what I see.

sryanbruen

UPDATE: The signal is still very strong for an El Nino to take place during the course of 2017/18. The strongest signal is for it to a moderate El Nino.



Please to God don't be a super strong El Nino again!

sryanbruen

UPDATE: A moderate El Nino is still on the cards as predicted by the CFSv2 but the general consensus is quite close to a strong El Nino.



I've gathered some reanalysis here on Winters with a moderate & strong El Nino in regards to 500mb height anomalies.

Here is the reanalysis for Winters with a moderate El Nino:



This reanalysis shows that a moderate El Nino is a great contender for cold winters as the jet stream according to the low pressure distribution is on a very southerly track down towards the Mediterranean and with plenty of northern blocking, very stubborn northern blocking I should say. This northern blocking builds into parts of the UK and Ireland. This reanalysis shows a huge possibility for a cold Winter in 2017/18 if a moderate El Nino were to come off. Northerlies would not be able to take place in this pressure distribution as you would need a build of high pressure to center more towards Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia. This reanalysis shows that easterly winds would be very evident through the Winter, something some of us have been wanting for so long!

But regardless of saying all this, you can't guarantee a cold Winter with a moderate El Nino as evident from Winter 1987/88 or Winter 1991/92 or Winter 2002/03. Let's just hope that if a moderate El Nino does take place, the NAO will go very negative and the QBO will become an easterly.

Meanwhile, here's the reanalysis for strong El Nino winters (not counting very strong El Nino winters like 1982/83, 1997/98 or 2015/16):



In contrast with the moderate El Nino reanalysis, this reanalysis shows a very awful pattern. The reanalysis shows some northern blocking but way over to Canada and western Greenland along with a very deep area of low pressure extending from northern Russia all the way to Mexico with Ireland included in this. In fact, Ireland is centered near one of the places where the low pressure is at its worst. It's clearly evident here that a strong El Nino is most certainly not a good sign for a cold Winter, far from it actually. Instead, a very stormy Winter could well take place if a strong El Nino were to take place. There has not been a strong El Nino since 1972/73, so we're overdue a strong El Nino at this stage and given how dry this past Winter was, we're due a very stormy Winter I think.

These are only predictions based on previous occurrences of moderate and strong El Ninos, not in any way a guarantee.

Reanalysis charts sourced from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.v2.pl

sryanbruen

I found this interesting graph today which shows the NAO for December to February (Meteorological Winter) from 1900 to 2012 or Winter 1899/1900 to Winter 2011/12.



Out of the moderate El Ninos that have been recorded, a negative NAO has occurred during Winter 2009/10, Winter 2002/03 (though very weak negative NAO), Winter 1987/88 and Winter 1963/64. So this means that a negative NAO has taken place in all moderate El Nino winters since 1963 with the exception of 1988/89 and 1991/92.

If a moderate El Nino were to take place, we would have a 66% chance of a negative NAO to take place. Therefore, that means 34% chance of a positive NAO to take place. So with a moderate El Nino, it is much more likely for a negative NAO to happen than a positive one which is good for cold winters.

The graph shows that Winter 2009/10 had the most negative NAO within the last 100 years which is very interesting and Winter 1962/63's NAO is the 3rd most negative.

I'll hopefully find the AO for the same period as this graph represents with the NAO. Let's hope there is some good correlation once I do though I'd highly doubt that knowing our climate never has any guarantees and will always surprise us with exceptions to our theories .

NAO graph sourced from: https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/abstracts/Mar/16032013-burt.pdf

sryanbruen

The latest SST anomaly chart here from NOAA shows temperatures in the ENSO region up to the standard of a very, very weak El Nino (or maybe neutral?) though the ENSO region in the eastern Pacific has temperatures up to the standard of a super strong El Nino with anomalies of over +5.0c. Due to the northern Pacific being much colder than it has been in recent years since like Winter 2012/13 along with the rather uneventful temperatures in the rest of the ENSO region bar the eastern Pacific, I think the chart is indicating neutral conditions once you consider all these. The NAO is looking quite positive given how cool the north Atlantic still is, that annoying cold blob is still not gone!



Here's the SST anomalies for this time last year. As you can see, the super strong El Nino became a rather moderate to strong El Nino by March 2016. It's also interesting to point out that the northern Pacific was also quite cool, like now in 2017 along with the northern Atlantic being very cold which meant that the NAO was very positive.



It's funny to find this NAO index and anomaly chart from 2015/16 now like it's showing that the NAO was going to super negative like 2010 standard NAO during the middle of January 2016 :pac::pac:, ah god nobody knew what was around the corner.... 15c during the day and 10-12c at night for Christ sake :rolleyes:. I just came across this and wanted to show it 'cause it's so funny looking back on this.



Here are all the such charts of the SST anomalies for this period of time before recent moderate El Ninos to compare with the current one:



There was no sign of a moderate El Nino in March 2009 around this period of time interestingly. The Pacific was firmly in a La Nina type setup.



Mmmm, there was no sign of a moderate El Nino in March 2002 either :cool:. It'd be interesting to see if the models were predicting a moderate El Nino during those years but unfortunately, I cannot find out that.

The confidence of a moderate El Nino to take place by the CFS v2 is still high.

sryanbruen

The CFSv2 continues to show confidence of an El Nino to take place during 2017 and into 2018 but confidence of a moderate El Nino has now been downgraded to a weak El Nino. Beware that there are still a good few ensembles going for a moderate El Nino but from what the general consensus is showing, they're outliers.



As a result of this, I gathered this pressure reanalysis on Weak El Nino winters. The reanalysis shows some intense northern blocking which is normally required for a cold Winter like 2009/10 or 1962/63. However, there is a deep trough over much of Europe including the UK and Ireland. Like strong El Nino winters, this is pretty straightforward. With this setup if we do get a weak El Nino, expect a very stormy Winter like 2006/07 (which had a weak El Nino) or 1994/95. Again I say though, with Ireland's weather, you can never guarantee anything. This reanalysis however shows that a weak El Nino is a very good sign for a stormy Winter.



What about the summers that followed the weak El Ninos? Well here's the pressure reanalysis of the summers that followed those weak El Nino winters. The reanalysis again shows very stubborn and intense northern blocking with a trough to the south of the UK and mainland Europe. This looks like a very cool and poor Summer setup to me. I like to compare this setup to Summer 2015. Summer 2015 had northern blocking and a trough right over us with high pressure over the continent. This gave us a very cool Summer. However, the trough is more over Europe this time. So should we expect a somewhat more settled Summer in 2018 (if a weak El Nino comes off) than 2015 with the slightly different setup?



The temperature reanalysis here of the same summers, however, shows that temperature anomalies are around average in Ireland with any cold temperatures more towards the southeast of England. Also, temperature anomalies look slightly above average to the west and northwest of Ireland. This is a weird distribution of temperature anomalies :cool:. The pressure reanalysis shows the potential for a poor Summer whilst the temperature anomalies show it as a very benign Summer. I would also like to point out that Summer 1995 is included here, as it followed the weak El Nino of 1994/95 (which was a very stormy and wet Winter). Summer 1995 is a bit weird here because it was much different than what the reanalysis shows. Goes to show ya that reanalysis doesn't tell you everything!

sryanbruen

With the warming towards the eastern ENSO region near Peru weakening, a weak El Nino looks the most likely event to take place. The CFSv2 like I said a few days ago has downgraded to a weak El Nino. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is around neutral but I expect this to become more positive as time goes by due to the negative SST anomalies. With a positive PDO, a weak El Nino is possible but any El Nino conditions that will try to get designated across the ENSO region will have a very tough time to do so.

The super strong El Nino of 2015/16 was helped a lot by the PDO being very negative (therefore, SST anomalies being very positive). However, this time with the PDO positive, it will make the El Nino very difficult to get designated.

A weak El Nino is normally characterised by the following (though again, no El Nino or La Nina is exactly the same of their effects so take these with a pinch of salt) for Ireland:

• One of the Summer months preceding the weak El Nino Winter should be very warm especially across the UK (for example, June/July/August 1976, July 1994, August 2004 and July 2006)
• One of the Autumn months preceding the weak El Nino Winter should be very mild (like the Summer months) (for example, September 2006, November 2004 and November 1994)
• The winters with the weak El Nino are normally mild (you have to go back to the 70s for a cold Winter with a weak El Nino)
• Some of the summers that succeed weak El Nino winters are some of the best summers (like 1969 and 1995. But this is not always the case as Summer 1954 followed the weak El Nino Winter of 1953-54 and Summer 1954 was very poor)

A weak El Nino does not that have many characteristics for Ireland and is more like a trial and error for guessing what effects it will have on Ireland.

sryanbruen

The El Nino continues to be downgraded by the CFSv2. The CFSv2 is now on the borderline between weak El Nino and ENSO neutral.

pedigree 6

sryanbruen wrote: »

The El Nino continues to be downgraded by the CFSv2. The CFSv2 is now on the borderline between weak El Nino and ENSO neutral.

I wonder does this mean a serious drought this year goes from possible to probable?

sryanbruen

Very little change since I last posted here. The CFS is still showing the possibility of a borderline weak El Nino/ENSO neutral event later this year. Feel free to change the title of the thread mods because the title at this stage could be considered clickbait :P.

sryanbruen

I think it's safe to say that it will most likely not be an El Nino Winter in 2017/18. The CFSv2 has now downgraded it to an ENSO neutral Winter albeit still a lot of outliers going for an El Nino event.

sryanbruen

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I wonder does this mean a serious drought this year goes from possible to probable?

Looks to be that way.

The CFSv2 is now predicting ENSO neutral as we go into 2018, well the consensus is. Some ensembles are still going for an El Nino event.

sryanbruen

Despite the CFSv2 showing ENSO neutral at this stage, the Jamstec is still going for a moderate El Nino and the ECMWF is going for a weak El Nino. Still a lot of uncertainty, even at this stage.

sryanbruen

The CFSv2 is showing very weak El Nino conditions up until July but if that's the case, an official El Nino will not be designated as you need to have five tri-monthly periods with an ENSO anomaly of +0.5c or more. After July, ENSO looks like going to neutral according to the CFSv2.

sryanbruen

Since April according to the models, the ENSO region has been on the borderline of ENSO neutral and Weak El Nino. Remember that to get an El Nino designated, you need to have five tri-monthly periods with an ENSO anomaly of +0.5c or more. According to the CFSv2, around August the temperatures in the ENSO region are gonna drop down to ENSO neutral status and even go close to cooler than average in early 2018 - that's a long way off however and will highly likely change as we get closer to the timeframe.



Whilst the CFS is still showing the possibility of a Weak El Nino though very weak and uncertain, the ECMWF is still going for the high possibility of a Weak El Nino.



The Jamstec, after a few months of being certain that we'd see an El Nino event taking off, has scratched the idea of an El Nino and is going for ENSO neutral now for 2017/18. Goes to show ya how bad the Spring unpredictable barrier can be.



These are my analogues/reanalysis from NOAA for both situations whether we will get a Weak El Nino or ENSO neutral this Winter.

This one is the ENSO neutral winters that were preceded by Weak La Nina winters the year before. It shows very strong Northern Blocking over Greenland and Iceland with a trough to the south of Ireland extending into the Mediterranean. This brings the wind in from an easterly direction. This is a beautiful setup if you want a cold Winter.



This reanalysis on Weak El Nino winters that were preceded by Weak La Nina winters the year before shows again some intense Northern Blocking over Greenland but more towards Canada and North America this time. The trough is more or less parked right over Ireland which gives away to a very unsettled and stormy Winter. Winter 2013/14, though not having a Weak El Nino or the previous Winter having Weak La Nina, is very evident of this kind of setup.



Our Winter can have a very different setup whether it will be either situation with ENSO.

sryanbruen

The last month has been quiet for ENSO with neutral conditions but it has suddenly gotten very interesting. The SOI for June of -10.4 showed that the atmosphere over the Pacific was in an El Nino setup and there was not a single day with La Nina (i.e. positive SOI values) values. However, July has been a different story with many La Nina SOI days: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/. There was some very positive SOI days especially the 20th and 21st July. However, unlike June, there still have been some days where the atmospheric setup was in favor of El Nino according to the SOI in July. Right now it's rather positive thus in favor of La Nina.

The Pacific waters looking at the below chart are cooling down significantly from where they were in Spring and early Summer. At the same time, the PDO is becoming positive i.e. warm compared to how cool it was in Spring. These are very interesting times for ENSO. Could we have another Weak La Nina for the second Winter in a row or will we stay neutral? I think we will stay neutral but as can be seen from last Winter which was arguably the weakest La Nina on record, it can be a La Nina event regardless of how weak it looks.



The CFSv2 shows the possibility of a Weak La Nina but it reaches the threshold in early 2018 which is weird cause you'd expect the La Nina to start going back to neutral - normally around that point rather than getting more intense. Anyway it's a long way off and you can see how disastrous the models have been with predicting this ENSO as previously they were showing El Nino.



To finish off this update, I want to give you guys something exciting. If a Weak La Nina were to come off, it'd be a good chance for a cold Winter going by previous occurrences of Weak La Nina to Weak La Nina winters. This reanalysis shows low pressure to the south, high pressure over Scandinavia with the winds coming from an easterly. There is only one bad Winter in the mix, 1909/10 which was a terrible Winter but it was at least average for snowfall. If not a cold, snowy Winter then another anticyclonic Winter like 2016/17 again that the reanalysis shows.

sryanbruen

Little to no sign of La Nina from the models. The majority of them are on the warm side of neutral to perhaps Weak El Nino status.

Akrasia

I know we've had a double El Nino which was considered rare, how rare would 3 el ninos in a row be?

Are we talking about totally unprecedented here? And might it indicate a breakdown of the southern oscillation as we used to know it?

sryanbruen

Akrasia wrote: »

I know we've had a double El Nino which was considered rare, how rare would 3 el ninos in a row be?

Are we talking about totally unprecedented here? And might it indicate a breakdown of the southern oscillation as we used to know it?

Just asking here, when has there been a double El Nino in recent times? As you can see from my chart below showing the ENSO events going back to 1865-66, the last time there was a consecutive double El Nino event was 1986/87 & 1987/88. The chart shows a double El Nino is not uncommon but it's quite rare also.

A close double El Nino in recent times was 2014/15 & 2015/16. However, currently the 2014/15 failed Weak El Nino event is considered ENSO neutral than El Nino by NOAA. Though, NOAA continues to change the ENSO SST anomalies so in future, the 2014/15 failed Weak El Nino event could be considered ENSO neutral - or it could continue to be considered ENSO neutral? Winter 1962/63 also had a failed very Weak El Nino and a few years ago, it was considered a Weak El Nino Winter but currently stands as an ENSO neutral Winter.

As for triple El Nino, there has only been one such occurrence since 1865-66, 1951/52, 1952/53 & 1953/54 - tell me if I have missed one by looking at my chart. So no, it's not unprecedented.

sryanbruen

The Pacific has cooled down very significantly so during August with this being the current temperature profile. At the same time, the PDO region towards Alaska has been warming up. El Nino is definitely well and truly out the door. With the PDO becoming very warm or positive, La Nina will have a very hard time to get going if the Pacific continues to cool down. In fact the central part of the ENSO has anomalies getting below -1c. The change of ENSO towards La Nina and also the positive SOIs are a result of our Summer becoming pear shaped.

Oneiric 3

Are 'good' summers here in Ireland contingent on the NINO index? One of the coolest summer's in recent times ( 2015) occurred during a fully fledged El Nino; while one of the warmest (1995) happened during a neutral to negative neutral phase (similar to this year)

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Are 'good' summers here in Ireland contingent on the NINO index? One of the coolest summer's in recent times ( 2015) occurred during a fully fledged El Nino; while one of the warmest (1995) happened during a neutral to negative neutral phase (similar to this year)

I was only saying that on behalf of a UK weather enthusiast who commented that on the GWV comment box - and yes I'm on the comment box .

I haven't seen myself.

Btw, did anybody let you know that I did try replying to your question yesterday but I couldn't due to errors again and again and again then I lost my reply of what I was going to say because I accidentally put something else in my clipboard?

Oneiric 3

Yes, there was a feck up with the Boards website yesterday.

sryanbruen

The ENSO region is continuing to have a plunge in its SST anomalies just two weeks later. The signature for La Nina is definitely becoming very noticeable.

sryanbruen

What a time it is to be looking at the ENSO. This is the latest SST anomaly chart from NOAA - it was released on Thursday. The ENSO region has yet again significantly cooled down. This looks to be a central based La Nina from where the coldest of the anomalies are starting out from. A central based La Nina is called La Nina Modoki and there is evidence that this can help produce northern blocking but I don't think the evidence is as reliable as it is for El Nino Modoki. Nevertheless, very interesting.



The CFSv2 tri-monthly periods chart here for ENSO 3.4 clearly shows the model is well and truly going for a designated La Nina through 2017/18. Some tri-monthly periods show anomalies of less than -1.0c which would bring the strength of the La Nina into moderate category. However, this is not supported enough right now from its ensembles and the fact that it doesn't take place over 5 tri-monthly periods which is required to get it designated. Nevertheless, a Weak La Nina is definitely showing on the CFSv2 - and you saw from my reanalysis' what a Weak La Nina could mean for our Winter.

sryanbruen

The Pacific is still cooling down and quite significantly so. At this rate, we will certainly have a Weak La Nina event for 2017/18 (again) but due to the continued cooling of the waters, we could be heading towards perhaps a Moderate La Nina event. The CFSv2 is clearly showing the chances of a Moderate La Nina taking place with some ensembles going as extreme as a Strong La Nina to take place during 2017/18. The La Nina signature here on the SST anomalies is helped a lot by the fact that the subsurface temperature anomalies are also cold for the ENSO region.

sryanbruen

Look at those purple colours/anomalies starting to appear in the Pacific now.

Floki

sryanbruen wrote: »

Look at those purple colours/anomalies starting to appear in the Pacific now.

Getting off topic a little bit but I'm looking at the colours for the North Atlantic.

Is that what they call a tri pole?
And what does that normally mean for 'our' weather?

sryanbruen

Floki wrote: »

Getting off topic a little bit but I'm looking at the colours for the North Atlantic.

Is that what they call a tri pole?
And what does that normally mean for 'our' weather?

I'll talk about this in the Winter discussion thread:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057771366&page=6

sryanbruen

The ENSO region has significantly warmed up in the last week with the dark blue colours now gone off the chart. However, models like the CFSv2 are continuing to go for a La Nina for 2017/18. If the ENSO region continues to warm up, we're on a par with 2012 which had El Nino-like conditions in the Summer but then La Nina in the Autumn and on the positive side of neutral in the Winter.

sryanbruen

The ENSO region has cooled back down in the latest update.

sryanbruen

The ENSO region has cooled down again in the past week, and very significantly so. The purple colours are starting to appear again on the eastern side of the ENSO region towards the Peruvian coast. Looks like a definite Weak La Nina signature to me. Moderate La Nina? I wouldn't put my bets on it but not ruling it out either. This has been such an unusual season for ENSO because the La Nina is getting going so late in the year and what makes it even more remarkable was the fact that it looked like we were going into an El Nino back in the Spring and June.



Here's last year's SST anomalies chart to compare. 2016/17 was a Weak La Nina Winter but it was among the weakest on record, that I'm pretty skeptical sometimes of how NOAA classify that as a La Nina event. You can see for yourself here that the ENSO region is much colder in 2017 than it was in 2016.

sryanbruen

If you're wondering what are the effects of La Nina on the globe? Here's the chart for the Summer months showing a typical La Nina's global weather/climate impacts but remember that no ENSO event, including El Ninos, is the same.

sryanbruen

The top one here is the impacts of La Nina on the globe in the Winter months.

sryanbruen

SST anomalies in the ENSO region have ever so slightly warmed up a bit within the past week but not a huge rise in temperatures. However, what I can notice going by the anomalies here on this chart is that the coldest of the anomalies are going more towards the central part of the ENSO region rather than just off the Peruvian coast. This would foreshadow the signs of a central based La Nina, or La Nina Modoki. There hasn't been as much research done on La Nina Modoki events as there has been done on El Nino Modoki events (such as 2009/10). El Nino Modoki is basically the same as La Nina Modoki by the way, just that the anomalies are warm than cold. This is the only source I can really find information on for La Nina Modoki: https://www.graincentral.com/weather/are-we-heading-for-a-la-nina-modoki/

The source does not show much for us here in Ireland as ENSO's influence on Ireland and Europe is very variable and has plenty of different situations, depending on the event and the strength of it. Going by a reanalysis I did previously which showcased Weak La Nina Winters that were preceded by Weak La Nina Winters, a Weak La Nina is very good for 2017/18 but my question this week is, going by the current SST anomalies, what does La Nina Modoki hold for us? Is it good for cold Winters as much as El Nino Modoki? We'll have to see.



The CFSv2 continues to show a Weak La Nina event for 2017/18 but it has totally gotten rid of the chances of a Moderate La Nina taking place.


The JAMSTEC meanwhile is going for a borderline ENSO neutral to Weak La Nina.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1oct2017.gif

sryanbruen

The latest SST anomalies from NOAA prove my thoughts last week on that the La Nina was becoming more central based. Although at the same time, the La Nina has weakened. Still doesn't seem to be as weak as it was last year right now.

sryanbruen

NOAA has officially said La Nina conditions for 2017/18.

EDIT: Sorry for the confusion.

sryanbruen

In the past few weeks, there has been little to no difference in the ENSO region. The La Nina signature is still there. In fact, it's on borderline weak to moderate.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/ClimateRealists/status/932581492789862400

sryanbruen

La Niña has intensified in the last week in the ENSO region marked. Not to mention, the south Pacific Ocean has also continued to cool down significantly which probably added to the intensification of the La Niña. As the cold pool in the south Pacific Ocean seems so deep and widespread, there is little to no sign of it warming up any time soon meaning that La Niña could intensify or last longer into Spring 2018.



The models continuing to struggle with predicting ENSO due to the turnover from El Niño to La Niña during the Summer. As a result, they have tended to play catch up.

The CFSv2 is clearly going for a Weak La Niña event although with the cold south Pacific Ocean waters, it could intensify into a moderate event, so watch this space.

sryanbruen

No change in the Pacific in the past two weeks. La Nina is still firmly in charge.

sryanbruen

4 weeks later, little to no change in the Pacific. We should be getting the Oct-Nov-Dec tri-monthly period anomaly within the next week or two from NOAA.

Despite the La Nina anomalies in the Pacific, the SOI is reflecting El Nino (the negative numbers in the daily column) a lot lately:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Oneiric 3

Did some research last week and it would appear that Arctic temps were at, and indeed, still are, at record high temps for the time of year. Current anomaly for the Arctic region is standing at +3.4c. You would think that with an La Nina in place over the last couple of months, that less heat would be transferring into the region, but this appears not to be the case.

sryanbruen

The Oct-Nov-Dec anomaly was -0.9 which is within the Weak La Nina threshold, 3 more tri-monthly periods to go 'til we see if 2017/18 was truly a La Nina event.

sryanbruen

Small update, the Pacific is still well and truly in a La Nina setup for its SST anomalies. I'd also like to pin point, though this is an ENSO thread, the cold SSTs around the Gulf of Mexico.

nacho libre

I have read the nina forcing will stop the MJO going to phase 8- which is apparently the ideal state for a high latitude block to occur
However, M.T Cranium's good friend Joe Bastardi has suggested it will go to phase 8 and as a consequence he envisions a cold outbreak over Europe. A lot of the teleconnection experts dismiss this and they deride Bastardi as a biased cold ramper.

Although, some of the later frames of the GFS output are starting to show the continent going cold. So perhaps Joe Bastardi might be on the right track.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

I have read the nina forcing will stop the MJO going to phase 8- which is apparently the ideal state for a high latitude block to occur
However, M.T Cranium's good friend Joe Bastardi has suggested it will go to phase 8 and as a consequence he envisions a cold outbreak over Europe. A lot of the teleconnection experts dismiss this and they deride Bastardi as a biased cold ramper.

Although, some of the later frames of the GFS output are starting to show the continent going cold. So perhaps Joe Bastardi might be on the right track.

I have no clue on the MJO but here's what I've found regarding it in the next few weeks.

MJO is heading/with speed towards east towards WESTERN PACIFIC phase 7 with off the chart amplitude , strong active amplitude. Dynamical/statistical models strongly support continued MJO activity, with enhanced phase propagating from Maritime Continent to West Pacific.
February.

This will for sure interfere in La Nina state bases , interfere + will have great impacts also for Northern Hemisphere continents sensible weather patterns !

I read somewhere - I think it was from somebody like Joe Bastardi or Michael Ventrice - that La Nina has reached its peak now and it will weaken significantly through February.

sryanbruen

SSTs across the board have been trending on the decrease.

sryanbruen

The cold SSTs that was down towards Chile and Antarctica seem to have ascended further northwards in the Pacific to form quite a cold blob in the ENSO regions.

sryanbruen

Still quite a cold equatorial Pacific.

sryanbruen

The ENSO figure for November-December-January was -1.0 which is the third tri-monthly period that the region has successfully reached the La Nina threshold. Two more tri-monthly periods at or below -0.5c and an official La Nina is designated.